| 西北经济发展的空间差异及收敛性研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 刘明,范博凯.西北经济发展的空间差异及收敛性研究[J].长安大学学报(社会科学版),2019,0(3):32-48. |
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| 作者姓名： | 刘明 范博凯 |
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| 作者单位： | 兰州财经大学 统计学院， 兰州财经大学 甘肃经济发展数量分析研究中心 |
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| 摘 要： | 西北地区作为中国经济欠发达区域，其空间差异和空间收敛性问题亟需深入研究。基于“丝绸之路经济带”建设背景，运用空间统计分析方法研究了西北省区经济发展的空间差异性，从时间收敛与空间收敛对比分析着手刻画西北省区经济发展收敛趋势，使用时间收敛模型与空间收敛模型并结合静态面板数据与动态面板数据，从时间与空间两视角对西北省区地市级层面经济发展的收敛性问题展开研究。研究发现，2008年金融危机前西北省区经济发展收敛呈较强波动性，2008年至经济进入新常态以来收敛趋势明显；在考虑空间因素分析后，空间收敛趋势与时间收敛趋势基本相同，但区域内部经济发展差异性显著减小，空间收敛测度结果更为明晰。经典收敛分析表明，2008年金融危机前西北省区经济发展收敛性不明显，但在金融危机之后西北省区经济发展呈现显著的收敛现象；空间收敛研究发现，金融危机后西北省区经济发展呈现显著的空间收敛特征。研究认为，西北省区经济发展具有后发优势，应打造西北省会城市和区域性中心城市形成经济发展增长极，以供给侧结构性改革和“丝绸之路经济带”建设为契机，优化产业结构，促进区域经济快速、协调发展。
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| 关 键 词： | 西北地区 空间差异 收敛模型 “丝绸之路经济带” 供给侧结构性改革 |
Spatial Differences,Convergence and Economy Development of North-western Provinces |
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| LIU Ming,FANBo-kai.Spatial Differences,Convergence and Economy Development of North-western Provinces[J].Journal of Chang'an University(Social Sciences Edition),2019,0(3):32-48. |
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| Authors: | LIU Ming FANBo-kai |
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| Affiliation: | School of Statistics, Lanzhou University of Finance and Economics,Gansu Economics & Development Quantitative Analysis Institute, Lanzhou University of Finance and Economics |
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| Abstract: | As an underdeveloped region of our country, the spatial difference and spatial convergence of northwest China are worthy of attention.This paper takes the construction of the Silk Road Economic Belt as the background and studies the spatial differences of economic development in Northwest region by using the method of spatial statistical analysis. It analyzes the convergence mechanism of the economic development of north-western provinces, based on thoughts and methods of convergence, to discuss the late-mover advantages of north-western regional economic development. The paper includes the tendency of economic development of north-western provinces analyzed by contrasting time convergence and space convergence, and the diachronic and spatial study on convergence of economic development of prefecture-level cities by using time convergence model and space convergence model and combining static panel data and dynamic panel data. As empirical study indicates, the convergence of north-western provinces has strong economic volatility before the financial crisis in 2008, but after the crisis the convergence tendency became noticeable until the New Economic Normal. Taking spatial elements into consideration, the tendency of space convergence is similar to that of time convergence, but the differences of regional inner economic development were significantly reduced. The result of space convergence measurement was clearer. Classical convergence analysis indicate that before the 2008 financial crisis the convergence of economic development of north-west provinces was not noticeable, but it became significantly noticeable after the crisis. Space convergence researches show that the economic development of north-western provinces has significant spatial convergence. The findings will contribute to developing the economic advantages of north-western provinces and promoting their economic harmony. |
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| Keywords: | Economy of North-western Spatial Differences Convergence Coordinated development of economy |
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