| 重庆市旅游收入与区域经济增长的实证分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 罗丹丹.重庆市旅游收入与区域经济增长的实证分析[J].重庆文理学院学报,2020,39(4):76-84. |
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| 作者姓名： | 罗丹丹 |
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| 作者单位： | 福建师范大学 经济学院， 福建 福州 350117 |
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| 摘 要： | 文章以重庆市旅游收入和GDP时间序列数据为研究对象，构建VAR模型，并通过Granger因果关系检验、脉冲响应函数分析以及方差分解检验，对重庆市旅游收入与区域经济增长的关系进行实证研究。结果表明：（1）重庆市旅游收入和区域经济增长之间不存在长期均衡关系；（2）经济增长是引起旅游收入增加的原因，而旅游收入增加并不是引起经济增长的显著原因；（3）经济增长对旅游收入产生正面影响，而旅游收入对经济增长的正面影响却有一定的滞后期，在短时期内会呈现出先下降后上升的负面影响；（4）经济增长促进旅游收入增加的作用力远大于旅游收入增加促进经济增长的作用力。针对以上结论进行相应的原因分析并提出政策建议。
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| 关 键 词： | 旅游收入 经济增长 VAR模型 Granger因果检验 脉冲响应函数 |
An Empirical Analysis of Tourism Income and Regional Economic Growth in Chongqing |
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| LUO Dandan.An Empirical Analysis of Tourism Income and Regional Economic Growth in Chongqing[J].Journal of Chongqing University of Arts and Sciences,2020,39(4):76-84. |
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| Authors: | LUO Dandan |
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| Affiliation: | School of Economics, Fujian Normal University, Fuzhou Fujian 350117, China |
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| Abstract: | Based on the time series data of tourism income and GDP in Chongqing, a VAR model was constructed and an empirical analysis was made on the relationship between tourism income and regional economic growth in Chongqing through Granger causality test, impulse response function analysis and variance decomposition. The results show that: there is no long-term equilibrium relationship between the tourism income and regional economic growth in Chongqing; the economic growth is the cause of the increase of tourism income, while the increase of tourism income is not the significant cause of economic growth; the economic growth has a positive impact on the tourism income, while the positive impact of tourism income on economic growth has a certain lag period and in a short period of time, it will show a negative impact of first decreasing and then rising; the role of economic growth in promoting the increase of tourism income is far greater than that of increasing tourism income in promoting economic growth. In view of the above conclusions, the corresponding reason analysis and policy suggestions were carried out. |
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| Keywords: | tourism income economic growth VAR model Granger causality test impulse response function |
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