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| 江苏省工业碳足迹研究及情景模拟 | |
| 引用本文： | 田立新,钱佳玲. 江苏省工业碳足迹研究及情景模拟[J]. 北京理工大学学报(社会科学版), 2013, 15(3): 26-31 |
| 作者姓名： | 田立新 钱佳玲 |
| 作者单位： | 江苏大学理学院,江苏镇江,212013;江苏大学理学院,江苏镇江,212013 |
| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金资助项目(11171135, 71073072, 51276081);国家社会科学重大基金资助项目(12 & ZD062);江苏省自然科学基金资助项目( BK2010329, BK2010329);教育部博士点基金资助项目(20093227110012) |
| 摘 要： | 工业碳足迹是一个复杂的动态的系统, 针对于江苏省工业碳足迹的现状, 利用系统动力学原理, 借助Vensim PLE软件, 建立了江苏省工业碳足迹系统, 把系统分为人口、资源、环境、能源4个子系统, 特别考虑到人均GDP对教育的影响, 通过教育影响技术, 最终影响CO2 排放量。通过历史数据对江苏省工业碳足迹进行仿真, 并从不同经济结构、技术条件、新能源发展情况等角度设置了4种不同的情景, 与原始情景进行比较, 对2005-2020年的工业碳足迹进行分析。从情景模拟结果可以看出:要减少江苏省工业碳足迹, 必须加大力度开发新能源, 调整能源结构, 而技术进步对于工业碳足迹的减少, 效果没有前两者显著。 |
| 关 键 词： | 碳足迹 系统动力学 情景模拟 |
| 收稿时间： | 2012-12-17 |
The Industrial Carbon Footprint of Jiangsu Province and Scenario Simulation |
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| TIAN Lixin and QIAN Jialing. The Industrial Carbon Footprint of Jiangsu Province and Scenario Simulation[J]. Journal of Beijing Institute of Technology(Social Sciences Edition), 2013, 15(3): 26-31 | |
| Authors: | TIAN Lixin and QIAN Jialing |
| Affiliation: | 1.Faculty of Science, Jiangsu University, Zhenjiang Jiangsu 212013, China |
| Abstract: | Industrial carbon footprint is a complex dynamic system. Targeting the status of industrial carbon footprint of Jiangsu Province, the paper used the principle of system dynamics with the Vensim PLE software and established an industrial carbon footprint system, which was divided into four subsystems: the population subsystem, the resources subsystem, the environment subsystem and the energy subsystem. The paper gave special consideration to the impact of per capita GDP on education and the impact of education on technology. Because of this relationship, it ultimately led to changes in CO2 emissions. Through the historical data, the article simulated the industrial carbon footprint of Jiangsu Province and set up four different scenarios. Compared with the original scene, the paper concludes that to reduce industrial carbon footprint of Jiangsu Province people must work hard on developing new energy and adjusting energy structure. However, the effect of technological advances for industrial carbon footprint reduction is less significant than the first two ones. |
| Keywords: | carbon footprint system dynamics scenario simulation |
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