Optimal planning of phase II/III programs for clinical trials with multiple endpoints |
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| Authors: | Meinhard Kieser Eva Dölger Heiko Götte |
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| Affiliation: | 1. Institute of Medical Biometry and Informatics, University of Heidelberg, Heidelberg, GermanyMeinhard Kieser and Marietta Kirchner contributed equally to this work.;2. Institute of Medical Biometry and Informatics, University of Heidelberg, Heidelberg, Germany;3. Merck KGaA, Darmstadt, Germany |
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| Abstract: | Owing to increased costs and competition pressure, drug development becomes more and more challenging. Therefore, there is a strong need for improving efficiency of clinical research by developing and applying methods for quantitative decision making. In this context, the integrated planning for phase II/III programs plays an important role as numerous quantities can be varied that are crucial for cost, benefit, and program success. Recently, a utility‐based framework has been proposed for an optimal planning of phase II/III programs that puts the choice of decision boundaries and phase II sample sizes on a quantitative basis. However, this method is restricted to studies with a single time‐to‐event endpoint. We generalize this procedure to the setting of clinical trials with multiple endpoints and (asymptotically) normally distributed test statistics. Optimal phase II sample sizes and go/no‐go decision rules are provided for both the “all‐or‐none” and “at‐least‐one” win criteria. Application of the proposed method is illustrated by drug development programs in the fields of Alzheimer disease and oncology. |
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| Keywords: | drug development program multiple endpoints phase II/III probability of success sample size |
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