| 国际贸易视角下逆全球化研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 余淼杰,蓝锦海.国际贸易视角下逆全球化研究[J].长安大学学报(社会科学版),2020,0(4):23-32. |
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| 作者姓名： | 余淼杰 蓝锦海 |
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| 作者单位： | 北京大学 国家发展研究院/中国经济研究中心，北京100871 |
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| 摘 要： | 2008年美国金融危机爆发导致世界经济遭遇严重打击，随后的欧债危机更是对欧盟造成了巨大冲击；个别国家面对国内外经济的不利形势，逐渐开始质疑自由贸易政策对本国经济的积极作用，有的甚至将经济增速的下滑归因于贸易因素，转而开始寻求贸易保护或中断贸易协议等逆全球化措施试图刺激本国经济增长。以典型的中美贸易摩擦和英国“脱欧”事件为核心，对逆全球化的相关问题进行研究。研究认为，虽然以往文献指出了特定情况下一国推行关税壁垒的合理性，以及实行反倾销措施对本国经济的积极作用，但是近期针对中美贸易摩擦和英国“脱欧”事件的主要研究都指出了逆全球化措施对本国经济和全球经济的消极影响，包括其对价格水平、社会福利、经济增长、微观企业和就业等方面的负面冲击，只有少量研究认为中美贸易摩擦和英国“脱欧”会对发起国经济有正面影响。研究结论和政府行为间的不自洽说明现有国际贸易理论很难解释本轮逆全球化浪潮的产生原因和动机，但随着后续研究的推进，预计将为从国际贸易角度理解本轮逆全球浪潮提供更多的新视角。
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| 关 键 词： | 国际贸易 逆全球化 贸易保护主义 中美贸易摩擦 英国“脱欧” 关税壁垒 反倾销 |
Study on reverse globalization from the perspective of international trade |
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| YU Miaojie,LAN Jinhai.Study on reverse globalization from the perspective of international trade[J].Journal of Chang'an University(Social Sciences Edition),2020,0(4):23-32. |
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| Authors: | YU Miaojie LAN Jinhai |
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| Affiliation: | China Center for Economic Research & National School of Development，
Peking University，Beijing 100871，China |
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| Abstract: | The outbreak of the US financial crisis in 2008 caused a severe blow to the world economy, and the subsequent European debt crisis caused a huge blow to the EU. Faced with the unfavorable economic situation at home and abroad, individual countries gradually began to doubt the positive effect of free trade policies on their economies. Some even attributed the decline in economic growth to trade factors, and began to seek trade protection or interruption of trade agreements to stimulate domestic economic growth, which are considered measures to reverse globalization. This paper takes the typical Sino-US trade dispute and the Brexit incident as key examples to study and analyze the issues related to reverse globalization. The research argues that, although past literature has pointed out the rationality of a country’s establishment of tariff barriers under specific circumstances and the positive effect of anti dumping measures on its own economy, recent major research findings on the Sino US trade dispute and the Brexit incident have indicated negative impacts of reverse globalization measures on the national economy and global economy, including negative impacts on price levels, social welfare, economic growth, micro enterprises and employment. Only a handful of studies believe that the Sino US trade dispute and the Brexit incident will have a positive impact on the national economy of the country initiating the measures. The inconsistency between the research conclusions and government actions shows that the current international trade theory can hardly explain the reasons and motives of the current round of reverse globalization. However, as the follow up research progresses, it is expected to be understood from more new perspectives of international trade. |
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| Keywords: | international trade reverse globalization trade protectionism Sino US trade dispute Brexit tariff barrier anti dumping |
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