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中国液化天然气进口流量与贸易潜力——基于贸易引力模型
引用本文:肖建忠,赵银玲.中国液化天然气进口流量与贸易潜力——基于贸易引力模型[J].北京理工大学学报(社会科学版),2016,18(5):16-23.
作者姓名:肖建忠  赵银玲
作者单位:中国地质大学(武汉)经济管理学院资源环境经济研究中心,武汉,430074;中国地质大学(武汉)经济管理学院资源环境经济研究中心,武汉,430074
摘    要:国际能源署认为,液化天然气(LNG)推动了世界天然气贸易市场的整合,也为亚太、欧盟地区的国家天然气进口多元化提供了来源。中国自2005年进口LNG以来,其在中国天然气消费中的比重越来越高。为了对中国LNG进口流量与贸易潜力进行分析,选取中国LNG进口贸易的11个国家为研究对象,从经济规模、距离、技术、合同类型、定价方式、政策这6个层面设定变量,利用2006-2014年中国进口LNG总量以及与中国LNG进口量影响因素相关的面板数据建立贸易引力模型,考察中国LNG进口的影响因素,对贸易伙伴国按照所签订的合同类型进行分类,测算其贸易潜力。研究表明:(1)签订长期合同可以促进中国LNG进口,但国际油价却没有通过显著性检验,美国亨利中心天然气现货价格的上升会显著减少进口流量。(2)中国LNG进口量与中国人均GDP正相关,与贸易伙伴国的人均GDP负相关,与两国首都之间的距离没有显著性的统计关系。(3)“一带一路”战略对中国LNG进口流量具有正向效应,自由贸易协定、R&D经费支出占GDP的比例具有负面效应。(4)中国LNG更多地采用短期合同贸易形式,且与签订长期合同的贸易国相比,短期合同贸易国具有更大的贸易空间。

关 键 词:液化天然气进口  贸易潜力  贸易引力模型
收稿时间:2016/3/30 0:00:00

The Analysis of LNG Import Flow and Trade Potential of China-Based on Trade Gravity Model Research
XIAO Jianzhong and ZHAO Yinling.The Analysis of LNG Import Flow and Trade Potential of China-Based on Trade Gravity Model Research[J].Journal of Beijing Institute of Technology(Social Sciences Edition),2016,18(5):16-23.
Authors:XIAO Jianzhong and ZHAO Yinling
Affiliation:1.Resource and Environmental Economics Research Center, School of Economics and Management, China University of Geosciences(Wuhan), Wuhan 430074, China
Abstract:The international energy agency believes that liquefied natural gas(LNG)promotes the integration of the world''s natural gas trade market, and also provides a source of diversification of natural gas imports for the Asia Pacific region and the European Union countries. Since China imported LNG in 2005, the proportion of natural gas consumption in China is increasing. In order to analyze flow of LNG imports and trade potential of China, this paper selected 11 countries of Chinese imports of LNG as the research object, and set the variables from economies of scale, distance, technology, type of contract, pricing modes, and policy, using China''s total imports of LNG of 2006-2014 and panel data related to China''s LNG import influencing factors to establish trade gravity model. It studied the factors which influenced China''s LNG imports, then classified trading partners according to the type of signed contract and measured the trade potential. Research results show that:(1)Signing a long-term contract could promote China''s LNG imports, but the international oil prices did not pass the significant test, while the U.S. Henry center natural gas spot prices rise would significantly reduce the in imports.(2)China''s LNG imports and China''s per capita GDP were positively correlated, negatively correlated with the per capita GDP of the trading partner countries, and with no significant statistical relationship with geographical distance.(3)"One Belt and One Road" strategy had a positive effect on the flow of China''s LNG imports, while free trade agreements, R&D funds accounted for the proportion of GDP had a negative effect.(4)China''s LNG trade adopted more short-term contract forms and compared with trade countries with long-term contracts, there was more space for development with short-term contract trading nations.
Keywords:liquefied natural gas import  trade potential  trade gravity model
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