CATASTROPHE AND RATIONAL POLICY: CASE OF NATIONAL SECURITY

Predicting catastrophes involves heavy‐tailed distributions with no mean, eluding proactive policy as expected cost‐benefit analysis fails. We study US government counterterrorism policy, given heightened risk of terrorism. But terrorism also involves human behavior. We synthesize the behavioral and statistical aspects in an adversary‐defender game. Calibration to extensive data shows that where a Weibull distribution is the best predictor, US counterterrorism policy is rational (and optimal). Here, we estimate the adversary's unobserved variables, e.g., difficulty of an attack. We also find cases where the best predictor is a Generalized‐Pareto with no finite mean and rational policy fails. Here, we offer “work‐arounds”. (JEL H56, D81, C46)     

The reversal small-world experiment

This paper is an attempt to examine and define the world network of a typical individual by discovering how many of his or her acquaintances could be used as first steps in a small-world procedure, and for what reasons. The town and occupation of each target was provided, together with the ethnic background, where this could not be inferred from the name. Starters were instructed in the small-world experiment and asked to write down their choice, amongst the people they knew, for the first link in a potential chain from them to each of 1267 targets. Starters provided information on each choice made (e.g. mother, cousin, friend, acquaintance, etc.) together with the sex of the choice) and the reason that choice had been made. The reason could be in one or more of four categories: something about the location of the target caused the starter to think of his or her choice; the occupation of the target was responsible for the choice; the ethnicity of the target; or some other, unspecified, reason.Six main conclusions may be drawn from the data: (1) A mean of 210 choices per starter account for the “world” (i.e. the 1267 targets). This number is probably an underestimate. Only 35 choices are necessary to account for half the world, however. Of the 210, 95 (45%) were chosen most often for location reasons, 99 (47%) were chosen most often for occupation reasons, and only 7% of the choices were mainly based on ethnicity or other reasons. (2) Choices were mainly friends and acquaintances, with strong cleavage by sex. For any given target, the type of choice used by the majority of starters was a friend or acquaintance, and not family. For any given target, the most likely sex of the choice (i.e. over all starters) can be predicted accurately on 82% of occasions. This sex tends to be male, unless both starter and target are female, or if the target has a low-status occupation. Additionally, any given starter is most likely to pick a male choice for any target, except for the female starter-female target combination, when female choices are more likely. This was correct on 64% of occasions. (3) Location was the usual reason for choice (out of the four categories), with occupation second, and ethnicity or other reasons rarely used. This most popular reason for choice may be correctly predicted for any given target 81% of the time. (4) The decision as to which choice was made appears to depend primarily on the occupation of the target, and secondly on the distance (near/far) from Morgantown, West Virginia, where the experiment took place. (5) The expression “having one's man in …” can be partially quantified. We may define a choice to “handle” a state in the U.S. if he or she was chosen for two-thirds or more of the targets in that state for which choices were made on the basis of location. Then, for any starter, on average, half the states are each handled by a single choice. (6) The accuracy of starters' recall about their networks is low, in the sense that their recall is incorrect more often than it is correct (i.e. their recall could not be put to any other use with any reliability). This confirms previous experiments on informant accuracy.     

Child maltreatment in South Korea: An ecological systems analysis

This article reviews risk factors associated with child maltreatment in South Korea within the context of the ecological system theory. Although child maltreatment is a serious concern in South Korea, understanding of this phenomenon is limited because most of the empirical studies address individual characteristics and few consider broader ecological contexts. This review integrates empirical findings on the risk and protective factors associated with child maltreatment in South Korea within the context of micro- (parent-child relationship, intergenerational transmission of abuse, and domestic violence), meso- (interactions between child-teacher and child-parent), exo- (mothers' employment and parents' socio-economic status), macro- (drinking culture and corporal punishment), and chrono-system (Asian economic crisis) levels.     

Education and State Formation Reconsidered: Chinese School Identity in Postwar Singapore

Abstract After WWII, Singapore launched decolonization and the state elites were under strong compulsion to blend the Chinese and other racial communities into a national whole. Chinese schools, equipping students with worldview and cultural-linguistic abilities very different from those at other schools, hindered the completion of this task. The state elites sought to resolve this problem by replacing Chinese schools, but this policy antagonized the Chinese and undermined the legitimacy of the ruling regime. To pacify the Chinese, they switched to uphold Chinese schools as an integral and distinct category in the education system. This strategy, nevertheless, kept Chinese schools culturally compartmentalized and sacrificed the objective of promoting interracial integration. To rectify this situation, the ruling authorities sought to blunt the cultural distinctiveness of Chinese schools by strengthening Chinese teaching in English schools. However, this policy was not very successful, because the Malays – the adversary of the Chinese – resented it. This study demonstrates that state formation is a complicated project containing conflicting tasks, it reminds us state hegemonic strategies always bring about contradictory results and the connection between education and state formation is always dialectical.     

What money can’t buy: The psychology of financial overcompensation

When a financial damage has been inflicted, perpetrators can satisfy victims’ outcome related concerns by providing a financial compensation. Few studies have investigated, however, whether overcompensation (i.e., compensation that is greater than the damage suffered) is more beneficial than equal compensation (i.e., compensation that covers the exact damage suffered). The results of four studies show that overcompensation offers no effects in addition to the impact of equal compensation, and that it even provokes negative outcomes. More specifically, overcompensation is attributed to occur because of a lower level of moral orientation on the part of the perpetrator (Study 2 through 4), leads to less favorable perceptions of the perpetrator (Study 2 and 4), and lower levels of trust in the perpetrator (Study 3 and 4) than equal compensation. No significant differences between overcompensation and equal compensation appeared for relationship preservation and cooperation (Study 4). These results show that while overcompensation may rebuild cooperation (albeit not more effectively than equal compensation), it does so at a monetary and relational cost that limits its effectiveness as a tool to promote true interpersonal trust. The present studies thus show that a large financial compensation does not provide any surplus value in terms of psychological outcomes and relationship continuation, even though such compensation best satisfies a victim’s economic needs.     

Post-crisis communication and renewal: Expanding the parameters of post-crisis discourse

Crisis communication is growing as a field of study due in part to the frequency and high profile nature of recent crises such as 9/11, Anthrax and bioterrorism in the mail supply, the Tsunami in the Southeast Asia, and Hurricanes Katrina and Rita. In each of these crises, the role of communication has been highlighted. Communication is particularly challenging during crises because an immediate response is necessary, because of the looming threat, and because these situations are inherently uncertain. Much of the present literature suggests that managing image during a crisis is critical to an effective response [Benoit, W. L. (1995). Accounts, excuses and apologies. Albany, NY: State University of New York Press; Coombs, W. T. (1999). Ongoing crisis communication: Planning, managing, and responding. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage; Hearit, K. M. (1995). “Mistakes were made”: Organizations, apologia and crises of social legitimacy. Communication Studies, 46, 1–17]. Although image is important and embedded within the threat, uncertainty, and chaos of crisis so too is the opportunity for growth and renewal. In this case, depending upon the crisis, either issues of image restoration or renewal may emerge as more of a central theme in the post-crisis discourse. This paper argues that renewal, along with image restoration, is an important genre of post-crisis discourse. As a result, efforts to understand post-crisis communication should be expanded to include both image restoration and the discourse of renewal.     

Bayesian implementation with partially honest individuals

We apply the idea of partial honesty, first introduced by Dutta and Sen (Game Econ Behav 74:154–169, 2012) in a complete information setting, to environments with incomplete information. We show that with private values and at least three individuals, incentive compatibility and no veto power are together sufficient for full implementation without any further restrictions if all individuals are partially honest. With common values, however, an additional assumption called private best alternatives is needed. This condition holds, for example, in most standard resource allocation problems     

Comparing three simultaneous measurements of a sociocognitive network

Three data collection strategies are compared in their ability to measure a globally shared cognitive network representation, i.e. a sociocognitive network. Participant performances in data production using each of the three strategies are also assessed. Data were collected from 22 students in a graduate program. Each participant reported k out of 22 “ordinary” ties (Task 1, 0≤k≤22), m out of k “close” ties (Task 2, 0≤m≤k), and “top three” ties (Task 3) for every actor in the network. Results revealed that each of the three tasks were quite similar to each other in measuring the sociocognitive network. The estimated average shared information among the actors about the network’s structure, as revealed by each task, was highest for Task 2 and lowest for Task 1. Individual differences in performance indicate that the amount of shared knowledge as revealed by each task is not consistent across tasks. Overall, three-way data structures are shown to be sufficiently rich in information that any of the tasks are sufficient to capture the main features of a sociocognitive network.     

Determining urban exploiter status of a termite using genetic analysis

Urban ecosystems are characterized by “urban exploiters”: species that thrive in the modified environment of cities. Few insects have been categorized as such, in part because they are usually considered as pests first, in part because many studies do not identify to species, and in part because many insects can survive in small vegetated areas within the urban matrix. Some termites may be prime examples of urban exploiters; Coptotermes species are rare in natural forests, but are abundant and major pests in urban areas. We investigated the genetic structure of the South East Asian species Coptotermes gestroi in the urban nation of Singapore. There was a panmictic population across the city, yet all 29 colonies were genetically distinct, and many had expanded from recent bottlenecks. There were no significant differences between colonies in vegetated areas (forests and parks), and those in urban habitats. The genetic pattern is similar to some other urban exploiter species in comparable environments, thus confirming C. gestroi is a native species that has become an urban exploiter, the first termite to be considered as such.     

A social choice theory of legitimacy

We develop a formal theory of legitimate collective choice. In our theory a policy choice is legitimate if the process through which the final choice was determined is consistent with some principle that can be used to (perhaps partially) rank the potential policy choices. The set of principles in any choice situation is taken to be exogenous, but a decision-making process is defined so as to deal with any nontrivial set of principles. Such a process is itself referred to as legitimate if it is guaranteed to select a legitimate outcome for each possible exogenous set of principles. We characterize the class of procedures that are legitimate, prove that legitimate policy decisions consistent with principles always exist and characterize the set of policy decisions that are legitimate for a any given set of principles. As we do not require the principles to be weak orders of the alternatives, our theory provides a notion of legitimacy that can be satisfied even when the guiding principles are potentially cyclic or incomplete. Accordingly, our theory illustrates one nontautological means by which majoritarian principles can be reconciled with legitimacy.     

Public goods: An ideal concept

I see the concept of ‘a public good’ as an ideal concept defined by a pair of related characteristics: an opportunity for gain for a collectivity because of nonrivalness in consumption, where the opportunity for gain is difficult to finance because of the nonexclusion possibility. Even at that ideal level, it is impossible to present a solution able to fully realize the opportunity for gain.Given the difficulty of finding a satisfactory solution even at the ideal level, it would be surprising if an analysis of concrete instantiations of public goods would be simple. I will show that economists use at least thirteen concepts to point to economic problems related to public goods. This is more than opponents of the concept ‘public good,’ Malkin and Wildavsky, accuse the economic profession of using.I will reject the conclusion of Malkin and Wildavsky that the concept of a public good is a social construct and thus a purely culturally relative concept. I will concede, nevertheless, that in trying to realize some of the gains presented by goods having public goods aspects, social and cultural preferences play an important role. My conclusion, which justifies the ideal concept ‘public good’, implies that there is potentially a legitimate governmental role in dealing with public goods. Recognizing the socio-political dimension of economics means that one recognizes that the economic reality is complex. It does not justify, however, scepticism about concepts.     

Classification theorem for smooth social choice on a manifold

A classification theorem for voting rules on a smooth choice space W of dimension w is presented. It is shown that, for any non-collegial voting rule, σ, there exist integers v ^*(σ), w ^*(σ) (with v ^*(σ)<w ^*(σ)) such that

1. structurally stable σ-voting cycles may always be constructed when w ? v ^*(σ) + 1
2. a structurally stable σ-core (or voting equilibrium) may be constructed when w ? v ^*(σ) ? 1

Finally, it is shown that for an anonymous q-rule, a structurally stable core exists in dimension \(\frac{{n - 2}}{{n - q}}\) , where n is the cardinality of the society.     

The Hefferline Notes: B. F. Skinner’s First Public Exposition of His Analysis of Verbal Behavior

B. F. Skinner''s first public exposition of his analysis of verbal behavior was the Hefferline Notes (1947a), a written summary of a course Skinner taught at Columbia University during the summer of 1947 just prior to his presentation of the William James Lectures at Harvard University in the fall. The Notes are significant because they display Skinner''s analysis as it made the transition from spoken to written form; moreover, they are an effective supplemental source of examples and early approximations for comprehending Skinner''s functional verbal operants.     

Competence and African American children in informal kinship care: The role of family

African American children are more likely than any other racial or ethnic group to live in kinship care, yet there is little empirical knowledge available to help understand the attributes of these families that contribute to children's development of competence. This study analyzed existing longitudinal data to explore the family-level factors that promote these children's competence. Hierarchical linear modeling revealed that average quality of the biological mother's relationship with child, the quality of the biological father's relationship with child, and kinship care family functioning predicts children's average competence. Additionally, changes in family resources and family functioning over time are related to corresponding changes in children's competence levels. Results from this study highlight that African American informal kinship care families possess the strengths and resources that contribute to children's competence.     

A measure of distance between judgment sets

In the literature on judgment aggregation, an important open question is how to measure the distance between any two judgment sets. This is relevant for issues of social choice: if two individuals hold different beliefs then we might want to find a compromise that lies somewhere between them. We propose a set of axioms that determine a measure of distance uniquely. This measure differs from the widely used Hamming metric. The difference between Hamming’s metric and ours boils down to one axiom. Given judgment sets A and B, this axiom says that if the propositions in ${A \cap B}$ jointly imply that the propositions in A?B share the same truth value, then the disagreement between A and B over those propositions in A?B should be counted as a single disagreement. We consider the application of our metric to judgment aggregation, and also use the metric to measure the distance between preference rankings.     

The Marital/Family Therapist as an Expert Witness: Some Thoughts and Suggestions

The role of the therapist in forensic activities is highlighted from the standpoint of protection of the therapist from unauthorized disclosure to orientation and effectiveness in court in a step-by-step process. Conclusions reached that the adversary process and the role of mental health professional challenge the objectivity needed by the mental health professional.     

Using adult attachment theory to differentiate adult children's internal working models of later life filial relationships

During the past fifty years, research based on attachment theory has found that when relational partners' attachment systems are activated, significant differences emerge between the ways individuals respond to each other. These different attachment styles are related to the ways individuals characterise and conceptualise close relationships generally, referred to as ‘internal representations’. Internal representations of close relationships depend heavily upon whether individuals have a secure or insecure attachment style. Until recently, most attachment-based research has focused either on the parent–child relationship during infancy, or on adult romantic relationships. Attachment researchers are now turning their attention to the parent–‘child’ relationship during the later stages of life. Later life filial relationships are of intrinsic interest to attachment researchers because they concern the same adults who were instrumental in forming the attachment organisation of the young child. This study considers filial attachments from the perspective of the adult ‘child’. Twenty-four participants were selected using the Attachment Style Questionnaire (ASQ) to include equal numbers of the three main attachment organisations. Six robust factors emerged, accounting for 71% of the variation. Confident Resolution and Resolved Yearning incorporated the secure attachment organisation. Distant Irritation and Dutiful Loyalty captured the insecure-avoidant style, with Unresolved Yearning and Entangled Resentment comprising insecure-ambivalent individuals.     

A comparative study between enteric parasites of Coyotes in a protected and suburban habitat

Coyotes (Canis latrans) have inhabited Florida (USA) since the 1960s and are currently found throughout the state. Our objective was to obtain information on enteric parasites of coyotes from two different habitats. Fresh coyote fecal samples were collected from protected and suburban habitats in Pinellas County, Florida, USA (27^o54′ N, 82^o41′W) from May 2005 to March 2007. A standard fecal flotation examination and formalin-ethyl acetate sedimentation protocol were utilized on fecal samples from both habitats. Five newly documented coyote parasites were documented: one cestode (Hymenolepis spp.), one nematode (Ascaris spp.), and three protozoa (Balantidium coli, Blastocystis spp., and Entamoeba histolytica). Nine hitherto unreported parasites for FL coyotes were also discovered: two cestodes (Diphyllobothrium latum and Dipylidium caninum), two nematodes (Toxocara canis and Uncinaria stenocephala), one trematode (Paragonimus spp.), and four protozoa (Cryptosporidium spp., Giardia canis, Cystoisospora spp., and Sarcocystis cruzi). The protected area supported significantly more undocumented (i.e., newly identified) parasites for FL coyotes, and Protozoa as compared to the suburban area. Florida coyotes are likely more susceptible to infection by novel parasites because of their rapid range expansion and lack of acquired immunity. In addition, rapid habitat loss and urbanization in Florida may increase the probability of disease transmission between wild and domestic canids. We suggest preventative measures that may lower the risk of parasitic infection and promote co-existence with coyotes in urban landscapes.     

Extending the Condorcet Jury Theorem to a general dependent jury

We investigate necessary and sufficient conditions for the existence of Bayesian-Nash equilibria that satisfy the Condorcet Jury Theorem (CJT). In the Bayesian game G _n among n jurors, we allow for arbitrary distribution on the types of jurors. In particular, any kind of dependency is possible. If each juror i has a ??constant strategy??, ?? ⁱ (that is, a strategy that is independent of the size n ?? i of the jury), such that ?? = (?? ¹, ?? ², . . . , ?? ⁿ . . .) satisfies the CJT, then by McLennan (Am Political Sci Rev 92:413?C419, 1998) there exists a Bayesian-Nash equilibrium that also satisfies the CJT. We translate the CJT condition on sequences of constant strategies into the following problem:

(**) For a given sequence of binary random variables X?=?(X ¹, X ², . . . , X ⁿ , . . .) with joint distribution P, does the distribution P satisfy the asymptotic part of the CJT?

We provide sufficient conditions and two general (distinct) necessary conditions for (**). We give a complete solution to this problem when X is a sequence of exchangeable binary random variables.     

Betweenness computation in the single graph representation of hypergraphs

Many real-world social networks are hypergraphs because they either explicitly support membership in groups or implicitly include communities. We present the HyperBC algorithm that exactly computes betweenness centrality (or BC) in hypergraphs. The forward phase of HyperBC and the backpropagation phase are specifically tailored for BC computation on hypergraphs. In addition, we present an efficient method for pruning networks through the notion of “non-bridging” vertices. We experimentally evaluate our algorithm on a variety of real and artificial networks and show that it significantly speeds up the computation of BC on both real and artificial hypergraphs, while at the same time, being very memory efficient.