基于策略型消费者的最优动态定价与库存决策

随着互联网技术的发展,越来越多的厂商采用动态定价的策略,尤其是当厂商面临需求不确定性时.然而,随着这种策略的广泛应用,消费者变得越来越"聪明".他们会比较厂商在不同阶段实行的不同价格,愿意等待并选择最好的购买时机.通过运用经典的Stackelberg博弈模型和机制设计理论,讨论面对消费者的这种策略行为,厂商如何在确定性和不确定性需求情形下,决定自己的库存和相应的价格.结论表明,厂商可以根据市场上高价值和低价值消费者的构成,通过适当的库存数量和价格设定,增大消费者买不到产品的风险,从而减少消费者的等待行为.文中的理论方法值得相关行业的借鉴和应用.     

消费者策略行为视角下短生命周期产品的定价机制研究

本文从消费者策略行为出发,通过运用经典的Stackelberg博弈模型,讨论面对消费者策略行为时,短生命周期产品厂商如何有效进行收益管理.结论表明,在短生命周期产品收益管理过程中,忽视消费者策略行为会导致利润的严重损失,厂商应根据库存和消费者的理性预期制定相应的价格决策.当库存较少时,厂商基本可以忽略消费者策略行为而制定较高价格;当库存相对较多,厂商的最优定价决策依赖于理性预期均衡;当库存非常充裕时,最优定价决策与消费者折扣因子紧密相关.厂商可通过适当的库存数量增加产品缺货风险,而减少消费者策略行为的不利影响.这对短生命周期产品的收益管理具有一定的现实意义.     

基于策略消费者行为和市场细分的联合定价库存策略

策略消费者的行为越来越受到厂商的重视,本文在假设消费者为风险规避型,对商品评价异质,考虑策略消费者和非策略消费者并存的细分市场上,比较两阶段定价和单一定价的优劣,研究限量策略实施的条件,进一步扩展至厂商能同时决定库存和价格的情况。研究表明消费者为风险规避型时,两阶段定价策略优于单一定价策略;策略消费者所占比例越大,消费者风险规避程度越高,第二阶段价格折扣越大,厂商越青睐限量的两阶段定价策略。此外,制定适度的价格折扣才会使厂商增加利润,过度的折扣竞争对厂商和消费者都没有好处。     

供应链协调中的消费者策略行为与价格保障研究

考虑由一个制造商、一个零售商和若干具有策略行为的消费者组成的供应链。零售商在销售期开始前宣布实施价格保障承诺。销售期划分为全价期和清货期2个阶段,选择在全价期购买商品的消费者可以在清货期索要差价,策略型消费者要决定是否等到清货期购买商品。制造商和零售商之间实施批发价格和价格补贴的联合契约,对清货期剩余商品制造商会向零售商提供价格补贴。研究结果表明:消费者策略行为会降低供应链的利润,采用价格保障承诺可以缓解策略型消费者的等待行为,但不能完全消除等待行为;在策略型消费者存在的情况下,批发价和价格补贴联合契约可以在一定程度上增加零售商的利润,降低策略型消费者等待行为对零售商的不利影响。     

考虑顾客行为和风险因素的定价及配给研究

本文研究的是考虑顾客(包括投机者和战略消费者)行为和风险因素的定价及配给问题。垄断厂商在需求不确定的有限时间内销售定量易逝商品,追求既定收益下风险最小的定价目标。投机者追逐买卖最大利润,战略消费者力求购买支付最小,二者在厂商不变价下基于市场预期价格安排购入时机。研究结果表明,厂商、投机者和战略消费者的行为策略间存在博弈均衡;在均衡价格范围内,投机存在是增加或减少厂商期望收益取决于价格和销量变化的收益效应;投机者投机不确定需求可分散厂商收益风险,投机确定需求只会激励消费者战略购买;定价辅以配给既可遏制过度投机,又可平衡战略购买;厂商承担的风险随价格升高而增加。     

基于顾客等待厌恶的会员制排队服务设计与差异化定价研究

设计合理的服务机制以及制定完善的服务定价策略对于企业的发展至关重要,服务提供商通过设计合理的服务策略可以获得最优的服务收益。在会员制排队服务中,通常会存在会员顾客和非会员顾客两类顾客,服务非会员顾客势必会增加会员顾客的排队等待时间,进而引发会员顾客等待厌恶的心理。因此,本文以会员制排队服务为研究背景,针对市场中存在的会员顾客和非会员顾客,在服务提供商对两类顾客实施差异化定价时,研究会员顾客等待厌恶心理对服务提供商服务策略和服务定价的影响。结果表明,当会员顾客等待厌恶程度较小或适中时,服务提供商可以同时服务非会员顾客和会员顾客;当会员顾客等待厌恶程度较大时,服务提供商应该只服务会员顾客。此外,随着等待厌恶程度的增大,会员顾客的最优定价会先减小后增大,非会员顾客的最优定价会先保持不变后逐渐增大。本文的研究对于会员制服务提供商服务策略和服务价格的设定具有一定的指导作用和应用价值。     

消费者失望厌恶下全渠道零售商退货策略研究

全渠道零售环境下,线上线下渠道高度融合,为消费者随时随地购买产品或退回不符合自身需求的产品提供了极大的便利。在考虑消费者对线上产品估值不确定以及存在失望厌恶行为下,针对全渠道环境中的退货问题,研究了全渠道零售商的退货策略选择。从产品退货渠道出发,分别构建了无退货、同渠道退货、全渠道退货策略下消费者效用函数及全渠道零售商利润模型,探讨消费者对产品估值不确定导其致失望厌恶对零售商市场需求、最优定价以及利润的影响。研究结果表明：退货策略在一定条件下可以增加零售商的市场需求,但退货策略并不总是对零售商有益,只有当消费者失望厌恶程度较高时,零售商才会实施退货策略。当产品匹配率较高且消费者失望厌恶程度中等时,零售商提供同渠道退货策略;当消费者失望厌恶程度较高时,零售商提供全渠道退货策略,从而为全渠道零售商的退货策略选择提供决策支持。     

考虑参照依赖与产品展示的体验式商品定价与订购策略

消费者在购买体验式商品时面临着产品价值的不确定性，因而会产生参照依赖行为。本文研究了考虑消费者参照依赖行为的定价与订购问题，并分析了产品展示策略的影响。研究发现，给定产品满足率时，只有当消费者获得高价值的概率大于某个临界值时，参照依赖下的最优价格才会高于没有参照依赖下的最优价格，并且产品价值维度与产品价格维度的参照依赖对最优价格起着相反的作用。进一步给出了最优订购量满足的条件，并发现在一定条件下最优价格随着订购量的增大而增大。当企业采取产品展示策略之后，会产生两方面的效应，一是消费者数量减少，二是剩余消费者的保留价格增大，此时最优价格随着展示系数的增大而增大。最后，通过数值分析得到了更多的管理启示。     

有害型产品的预售战略

有害型产品或服务在当代社会的消费规模日益增加，日常生活中常见的有害型产品包括自助餐、快餐、手机游戏和赌场等。该类产品的显著特征是：消费时，消费者得到即时的满足感，但其消费的副作用将在未来对消费者产生显著影响。具体消费场景体现为消费者通过手机软件提前订购自助餐、快餐和手游等产品或者服务。 ????????基于消费者自我控制理论和厂商预售定价理论，探讨消费者购买决策过程中的行为偏差对厂商预售定价的影响机理。以销售有害型产品厂商为主要研究对象，通过构建行为经济学模型，系统分析消费者当期偏好倾向和消费者过度自信两大消费者行为偏差对厂商的最优定价策略、厂商利润和消费者剩余的影响，进一步考察厂商提供退款承诺对行为偏差和厂商利润关系的调节作用。 ????????研究结果表明，①消费者决策过程中的行为偏差显著影响厂商预售定价和退款战略，即在存在消费者行为偏差的情况下，厂商愿意承诺更高的退款金额，并且高的预售价格也未必与高的退款金额紧密相关；②消费者行为偏差既可能增加也可能减少厂商利润水平，而厂商是否提供退款机制显著调节消费者行为偏差与厂商利润之间的关系；③相对于没有退款承诺的情形，提供退款承诺能够帮助厂商获得更多的利润。有害型产品的副作用越大，消费者的过度自信程度越高，从而厂商通过退款承诺获取的利润也越多。此外，消费者在提前购买商品时面临的购买风险既可增加也可减少退款承诺带来的额外收益。 ????????研究拓展了传统的预售模型，在考虑消费者行为偏差后，新的模型可以更准确地刻画消费者对于有害型产品的实际购买决策过程。进一步揭示了退款的另一重要作用，即通过打破消费者决策行为的一致性来获取价值。研究结果还可以帮助相关行业管理者洞察消费者行为因素，有针对性地制定营销战略和提升企业绩效水平。     

考虑服务等待成本的双寡头竞争定价决策研究北大核心CSSCI

考虑市场上存在两个竞争的服务企业提供相同类型的服务,且均为一个M/M/1排队系统。为缓解队列中因消费者等待而产生的负面影响,服务企业会采取一定的改善措施,并承担由此产生的成本,即服务等待成本,而该成本会对服务企业的竞争行为产生影响。基于此,针对存在服务等待成本下的双寡头竞争定价决策和收益进行分析。研究表明:①企业的价格和收益与其自身的顾客忠诚度呈正相关;②企业的价格和收益均随着自身价格弹性系数的增加而减小,随着交叉价格弹性系数的增加而增加;③企业的价格随着服务等待成本的增加而增加,而一个企业服务等待成本的增加对其自身的收益具有负面影响,但对另一个企业的收益具有正面影响。     

Power,authority and legitimacy

Management, human resources, organization, control, leadership, etc., all seem to be just so many euphemisms for power, and this suggests a discourse of management and organization that calls things by their proper name. This paper on the contrary stresses the need to resolve the concept of ‘power’ itself into more differentiated notions, and proposes that clarification may be derived from distinctions once explicit in the vocabulary of Classical antiquity, but lost in modern European languages. It argues that nothing but confusion in thinking about organizations, management and legitimation can result from the failure to recognize that the phenomena this vocabulary identifies and distinguishes are irreducibly different.     

Criteria for selecting a production control philosophy

Logistic objectives constitute a compromise between having short leadtimes and a low volume of work in progress on the one hand and a high resource loading and due date obligation on the other. Miscellaneous production planning approaches offered today provide different combinations of logistic objectives for satisfying a manufacturing strategy. To combine the strength of the various approaches into a unified system, a new approach based on a dynamic and distributed production planning methodology is proposed. To customize the approach, various analyses and specifications have to be made and for that reason some important characteristics and criteria for analysing production control philosophies will be given.     

The social construction of the meaning of acute stressors: a qualitative study of the personal accounts of police officers using a stress counselling service

The police profession is one in which acute stressors are encountered more frequently than in other occupations. Using the personal accounts of 35 police officers attending an in-house stress counselling clinic, the aim of the present study was to provide a qualitative examination of how the institutional context of policing influenced the ways in which acute stressors signified to individual police officers experiencing felt distress. Using the framework of Rational Emotive Behaviour Therapy as an analytical tool, it is argued that beliefs contributing to the experience of felt distress are related to the way in which policing as both an identity and an activity is constructed through the police organizational culture. Not only do these constructions influence the ways in which officers perceive themselves and their environments, but they also operate at the collective level to 'normalize' some emotional responses and to 'pathologize' others which, it is argued, could impact upon the outcomes of interventions such as stress counselling.     

The moderating role of social support in Karasek's job strain model

This paper examines whether social support is a boundary-determining criterion in the job strain model of Karasek (1979). The particular focus is the extent to which different sources of social support, work overload and task control influence job satisfaction, depersonalization and supervisor assessments of work performance. Hypotheses are tested using prospective survey data from 80 clerical staff in a university setting. Results revealed 3-way interactions among levels of support (supervisor, co-worker, non-work), perceived task control and work overload on levels of work performance and employee adjustment (self-report). After controlling for levels of negative affect in all analyses, there was evidence that high levels of supervisor support mitigated against the negative effects of high strain jobs on levels of job satisfaction and reduced reported levels of depersonalization. Moreover, high levels of non-work support and co-worker support also mitigated against the negative effects of high strain jobs on levels of work performance. The results are discussed in terms of the importance of social support networks both at, and beyond, the work context.     

Job insecurity, coping resources and personality dispositions in occupational strain

This paper presents research on the relationships between the work-related stressor of perceived job insecurity and various indicators of occupational strain, taking into account employees' personality dispositions (trait negative and positive affectivity) and coping resources. Respondents were 222 Australian public servants surveyed during organizational restructuring that involved downsizing and threat to job certainty. The research was formulated within an adaptation of Osipow, Doty, and Spokane's (1985) framework of stress-strain-coping that included the possible direct as well as moderating effects of personality dispositions in reporting occupational strain (Parkes, 1990). Findings from hierarchical regression analyses indicate consistent significant independent effects of personality dispositions, coping resources and perceived job insecurity on various indicators of strain. There was also support for the moderating roles of negative affectivity and self-care in the relation between perceived job insecurity and physical strain. Implications for the role of dispositional factors, especially negative affectivity, and the utility of various coping resources in accounting for occupational strain in times of threatened job security are discussed.     

Job stress, job strain, and psychological withdrawal among Dutch university staff: towards a dualprocess model for the effects of occupational stress

This study examined the antecedents of job strain (emotional exhaustion, health complaints) and withdrawal behaviour (e.g. lowered organizational commitment) among a cross-sectional sample of 131 academic staff members of the law department of a large Dutch university. Conservation of resources theory (Hobfoll, 1989) provided the theoretical background for this study. Strains and withdrawal behaviours were expected to be most prominent among those who reported having few resources and/or who reported high job demands. Structural equation modelling revealed that this was indeed the case. As predicted, differential patterns of effects emerged for job demands and job resources. Analysis of the effects of four job-specific stressors revealed that especially the structural aspects of a staff member's teaching task (e.g. the number of students in their classes) contributed strongly to perceived job demands. Theoretical and practical implications of the study are discussed.     

Dermal Uptake of 18 Dilute Aqueous Chemicals: In Vivo Disappearance‐Method Measures Greatly Exceed In Vitro‐Based Predictions

Average rates of total dermal uptake (K_up) from short‐term (e.g., bathing) contact with dilute aqueous organic chemicals (DAOCs) are typically estimated from steady‐state in vitro diffusion‐cell measures of chemical permeability (K_p) through skin into receptor solution. Widely used (“PCR‐vitro”) methods estimate K_up by applying diffusion theory to increase K_p predictions made by a physico‐chemical regression (PCR) model that was fit to a large set of K_p measures. Here, K_up predictions for 18 DAOCs made by three PCR‐vitro models (EPA, NIOSH, and MH) were compared to previous in vivo measures obtained by methods unlikely to underestimate K_up. A new PCR model fit to all 18 measures is accurate to within approximately threefold (r = 0.91, p < 10^?5), but the PCR‐vitro predictions (r > 0.63) all tend to underestimate the K_up measures by mean factors (UF, and p value for testing UF = 1) of 10 (EPA, p < 10^?6), 11 (NIOSH, p < 10^?8), and 6.2 (MH, p = 0.018). For all three PCR‐vitro models, log(UF) correlates negatively with molecular weight (r² = 0.31 to 0.84, p = 0.017 to < 10^?6) but not with log(vapor pressure) as an additional predictor (p > 0.05), so vapor pressure appears not to explain the significant in vivo/PCR‐vitro discrepancy. Until this discrepancy is explained, careful in vivo measures of K_up should be obtained for more chemicals, the expanded in vivo database should be compared to in vitro‐based predictions, and in vivo data should be considered in assessing aqueous dermal exposure and its uncertainty.     

Systems Resilience for Multihazard Environments: Definition,Metrics, and Valuation for Decision Making

The United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction reported that the 2011 natural disasters, including the earthquake and tsunami that struck Japan, resulted in $366 billion in direct damages and 29,782 fatalities worldwide. Storms and floods accounted for up to 70% of the 302 natural disasters worldwide in 2011, with earthquakes producing the greatest number of fatalities. Average annual losses in the United States amount to about $55 billion. Enhancing community and system resilience could lead to massive savings through risk reduction and expeditious recovery. The rational management of such reduction and recovery is facilitated by an appropriate definition of resilience and associated metrics. In this article, a resilience definition is provided that meets a set of requirements with clear relationships to the metrics of the relevant abstract notions of reliability and risk. Those metrics also meet logically consistent requirements drawn from measure theory, and provide a sound basis for the development of effective decision‐making tools for multihazard environments. Improving the resiliency of a system to meet target levels requires the examination of system enhancement alternatives in economic terms, within a decision‐making framework. Relevant decision analysis methods would typically require the examination of resilience based on its valuation by society at large. The article provides methods for valuation and benefit‐cost analysis based on concepts from risk analysis and management.     

UNIX系统性能监控简述及shell系统资源统计程序

本文简要阐述了unix系统中(主要以IBM的AIX为例)进行系统性能管理的几种命令行工具,并通过编写shell实例程序,运用其中提到的工具实现系统资源利用率的统计程序,为做好unix系统管理和调优提供参考.