Cohabitation and Marital Expectations Among Single Millennials in the U.S.

Cohabitation has surpassed marriage as the most common union experience in young adulthood. We capitalize on a new opportunity to examine both marital and cohabitation expectations among young single women in recently collected, nationally representative data (National Survey of Family Growth 2011–2015) (N?=?1467). In the US there appears to be a ‘stalled’ second demographic transition as single young adult (ages 18–24) women have stronger expectations to marry than cohabit and the vast majority expects to, or has, already married. Among young women expecting to marry, the majority (68%) expect to cohabit with their future spouse but about one-third expect to follow a traditional relationship pathway into marriage (to marry without cohabiting first). In addition, women from disadvantaged backgrounds report the lowest expectations to marry, but there is no education gradient in expectations to cohabit. Marriage expectations follow a “diverging destinies” pattern, which stresses a growing educational divide, but this is not the case for cohabitation expectations. Our results, based on recently collected data, provide insight into the contemporary context of union formation decision-making for the millennial generation.

     

Retirement and death in office of U.S. Supreme Court justices

We construct demographic models of retirement and death in office of U.S. Supreme Court justices, a group that has gained demographic notice, evaded demographic analysis, and is said to diverge from expected retirement patterns. Models build on prior multistate labor force status studies, and data permit an unusually clear distinction between voluntary and “induced” retirement. Using data on every justice from 1789 through 2006, with robust, cluster-corrected, discrete-time, censored, event-history methods, we (1) estimate retirement effects of pension eligibility, age, health, and tenure on the timing of justices’ retirements and deaths in office, (2) resolve decades of debate over the politicized departure hypothesis that justices tend to alter the timing of their retirements for the political benefit or detriment of the incumbent president, (3) reconsider the nature of rationality in retirement decisions, and (4) consider the relevance of organizational conditions as well as personal circumstances to retirement decisions. Methodological issues are addressed.     

Relation of marriage and education to fertility in the U.S.S.R

Abstract One-half of the variation in Soviet fertility as measured by the child-woman ratio is attributable to the proportion of married women in the 20-24 age group. The familar sociological hypothesis of an inverse relation between human fertility and education also is fully substantiated with data for the 36 major ethnic groups in the U.S.S.R. The second and third best predicting variables fall into the two extreme age groups: (a) those 16 to 19 years of age with more than seven years of school completed and (b) those men and women aged 60 and over with the equivalent formal education. Results of this study support the modified hypothesis that complements previously publicized findings. It asserts that variations in fertility attributable to the traditionally religious values can be explained in terms of the age-specific marriage and educational differentials known to have existed in the past and still characteristic of the multi-national society in the Soviet Union.     

Niche modification and stability of competitive systems. III. Simulation model analysis

Summary Simulation model for niche shift in ecological time scale was constructed on the basis of the optimal foraging theory. In accordance with the previous experimental study (Shimada andFujii, 1985), the model competitive system consisted of 2 parasitoid wasp species utilizing 4 host stages. Wasps were assumed to choose host stages in the manner that they realized the maximal gain/cost values, where gain was represented by body weight of a wasp progeny emerging from each host stage and cost was expressed by time required to search for and detect an unparasitized host. The number of parasitized hosts in each host stage was calculated numerically by usingArditt's (1983) model for avoidance of superparasitism. The model simulated well the experimental results ofShimada andFujii (1985) andShimada (1985). Sensitivity analysis of the model showed that the experimentally derived criterion for competitive coexistence (different second-best host stages between competing species even with the common best) was not necessarily the indispensable condition for niche shift and separation, but that if the criterion was not satisfied, stable competitive coexistence occurred only in the narrow range of the parametric values. Further, niche shift in ecological time scale made the competitive coexistence more stable than fixed niche on which the current niche theory stands.     

Immigrants and natives in U.S. science and engineering occupations, 1994–2006

Between 1994 and 2006, the ratio of foreign-born scientists and engineers (FSE) to native scientists and engineers (NSE) doubled. I decompose this change into a migration effect (which accounts for migration in general), a proportional college effect (which accounts for the relative proportions of college graduates among migrant and native workers), and a proportional science and engineering (S&E) effect (which accounts for the relative proportions of S&Es among migrant and native college-educated workers). Results show that the migration effect explains about three-quarters of the increase in FSE/NSE during the entire period under study. The proportional S&E effect, which captures changes in the ratio as a result of immigration of S&Es in excess of what would be expected from general migration alone, was largest in 1995–1998, which were years of sustained economic growth. Conversely, a slower economy coincided with a declining proportional S&E effect after 2000. Increases in the annual cap on H-1B visas, an important avenue of entry for foreign-born S&Es, had little effect on the ratio. In short, during 1994–2006, the association between economic swings and the specific, more than proportional migration of S&Es was much stronger than the association between the latter and changes in the H-1B cap.     

A rejoinder to S. K. Datta and J. B. Nugent

Abstract Extract The question of old-age security as a motivation for fertility in less-developed rural areas can be put in clearer perspective by pausing to consider the changing roles of land and offspring under the influence of fundamental demographic upheaval. Under the pre-transition regime, one generation approximately replaced the preceding one, particularly once unused but usable land became scarce and the possibility of expanding farm operations became remote. Judging from the settlement patterns and the history of the Maharashtrian study area, such a circumstance probably obtained long before the secular drop in mortality began. During this period, a single son, typically, would survive to adulthood, gradually assuming control of the father's land (or the father's trade, among non-agriculturalists) and, if the father lived long enough, would eventually be a source of security in the father's old age. It is not inappropriate to mention that this generational cycle no doubt fostered a strong urge to leave the family land to a son, so that a sonless farmer would keenly feel a lack of fulfilment. In fact, responses to certain survey questions suggest that ancestral land and male progeny are still somehow connected, according to the way village men think, to their sense of immortality. It would be hard, consequently, to separate old-age security, the idea of 'continuing a lineage', and the sense of immortality conferred by owning land into distinct motives for conceiving children.     

Measurement and Replication: Evaluating the Consistency of Eight U. S. Fertility Surveys

This paper addresses the comparability of data from eight national fertility surveys conducted in the United States between 1955 and 1980. We examine the extent to which substantive conclusions about the levels and correlates of the timing offirst birth vary across these data sources by comparing samples of women who were eligible to be included in more than one study. Results obtained from Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and logistic regression analyses of several measures of timing indicate few study effects. Thus findings based on data from one survey can be replicated with comparable data from another. One notable exception is the relationship between contraceptive use prior to the first birth and the timing of that birth. The contraceptive variable appears to be poorly measured, leading to unstable estimates of the relationship. In general, our results suggest: (1) the feasibility of pooling data from the various surveys when modeling delayed childbearing; and (2) reasonable accuracy in assessing trends in the timing of first birth from multiple data sources.     

The politics of love in three recent U.S. and U.K. films of young gay romance: a symptomatic reading of Beautiful Thing, Get Real, and Edge of Seventeen

A symptomatic representation, from a Marxist critical vantage point, of three prototypical recent U.S. and U.K. films of young gay romance-Beautiful Thing, Get Real, and Edge of Seventeen-shows these films (as well as the larger, insurgent cinematic subgenre of which they serve as particularly exemplary instances) do significant ideological work, contrary to what might appear to be the case from a superficial (and uncritical) reading that dismisses them as pure escapism. These films confront contradictions central to contemporary U.S. and U.K. gay politics and culture-contradictions involving the unity and struggle of tendencies toward gay assimilation versus gay separation, gay normalization versus gay differentiation, and gay integration versus gay dissidence. While these films do not provide formal resolutions to these real social contradictions as much as they engage in processes of formal dissolution and irresolution (i.e., suspension) of these contradictions, they cannot fully elide the existence of these contradictions because to do so would effectively undermine the empathetic appeal of the romantic tales they tell. We can observe this ideological tension most clearly by examining (1) the fraught ways in which the films represent their protagonists' struggle to substitute individual acquisition of a seemingly secure private place for engagement in social struggle to extend collective control over public space, as well as (2) the abstractly utopian manner in which these films celebrate the power of love.     

A rejoinder to S. K. Datta and J. B. Nugent

Extract

The question of old-age security as a motivation for fertility in less-developed rural areas can be put in clearer perspective by pausing to consider the changing roles of land and offspring under the influence of fundamental demographic upheaval. Under the pre-transition regime, one generation approximately replaced the preceding one, particularly once unused but usable land became scarce and the possibility of expanding farm operations became remote. Judging from the settlement patterns and the history of the Maharashtrian study area, such a circumstance probably obtained long before the secular drop in mortality began. During this period, a single son, typically, would survive to adulthood, gradually assuming control of the father's land (or the father's trade, among non-agriculturalists) and, if the father lived long enough, would eventually be a source of security in the father's old age. It is not inappropriate to mention that this generational cycle no doubt fostered a strong urge to leave the family land to a son, so that a sonless farmer would keenly feel a lack of fulfilment. In fact, responses to certain survey questions suggest that ancestral land and male progeny are still somehow connected, according to the way village men think, to their sense of immortality. It would be hard, consequently, to separate old-age security, the idea of ‘continuing a lineage’, and the sense of immortality conferred by owning land into distinct motives for conceiving children.     

U.S. births and limit cycle Models

Lee's (1974) formal demographic feedback models summarize the implications for births and age-structure of neo-Malthusian theories of baby booms such as those of Easterlin. For some parameter values, such models imply sustained cycles, so-called "limit cycles", in births. Frauenthal and Swick recently reestimated a continuous-age version of Lee's basic cohort model with U.S. series and, contrary to Lee's original findings, concluded that "limit cycles oscillations have been occurring in U.S. births." This article disputes their conclusion, ascribing it to an inconsistency in detrending procedures. Furthermore, it corrects Lee's original conclusion by showing that his alternative period labor-force feedback model, estimated from U.S. series, leads to cycles of implausibly long period. This article thus reopens the question of whether any feedback model could account for the observed cycles in U.S. births.     

Segregation and Social Welfare: A Methodological Proposal with an Application to the U.S.

The aim of this paper is twofold: (a) to define a new concept, the welfare loss that a society experiences due to the segregation of the demographic groups that comprise it and (b) to propose measures that quantify this phenomenon satisfying a set of normative properties. In aggregating the well-being losses (gains) of the groups derived for being concentrated in low-status (high-status) organizational units, this paper embraces the distributive approach adopted in the literature on economic deprivation and poverty. The advantages of these measures are shown by exploring the welfare losses that the United States has experienced from 1980 to 2012 due to occupational segregation by both gender and race/ethnicity. Our analysis shows that our measures reveal certain aspects of the phenomenon that do not emerge when using overall segregation measures. Thus, for example, while nothing seems to have changed in U.S. labor market in the last decade according to some well-known overall segregation measures, the social welfare loss due to segregation has actually increased.     

Comments on Daniel A. Seiver's 'Recent fertility in Mexico: Measurement and Interpretation.'

Abstract In a recent article in this Journal,(1)Daniel A. Seiver concludes that 'fertility' in Mexico did not decline between 1960 and 1970. His conclusion is based primarily on an increase in the child-woman ratio from 725 per 1,000 in 1960 to 762 in 1970. Seiver simply asserts that this increase cannot be completely explained by declining infant mortality and under-enumeration. (2) . (3).     

A comparison of patterns of urban deprivation between Canadian and U.S. cities

Recent research has indicated the existence of aggregate level differences between Canadian and U.S. cities. However, little attention has been given to possible socio-spatial differences between cities in the two nations. This paper attempts to address part of this issue by comparing a sample of paired Canadian and U.S. cities with respect to, (1) deprivation concentration levels within their inner cities, (2) the nature of areas of multiple deprivation, and (3) the proportion of their worst areas of multiple deprivation located within their inner cities. The study found that deprived groups were disproportionately represented in the inner-city areas of both nations. However, areas of multiple deprivation in U.S. cities contained more deprived groups than Canadian cities. Finally, the inner-city areas of both nations contained high proportions of their worst areas of multiple deprivation. In short, the extent of multiple deprivation is less in Canadian cities, but cities in both countries share an inner-city problem.     

Measuring Ethnicity with U.S. Census Data: Implications for Mexicans and Arabs

U.S. racial and ethnic populations can be defined by a number of census questions—race/ethnicity, ancestry, place of birth, and/or language—but little is known about how using alternative definitions of identity affect the size and characteristics of different groups. This article examines this question using combined data from the 1 % and 5 % Public Use Microdata Samples in census 2000, using Mexicans and Arabs as case studies. The analysis uses the standard method of classifying these groups (Hispanic origin and Arab ancestry) as a baseline to explore differences across the range of possible permutations of ethnic identity. In the Arab case, persons captured using alternative definitions of identity (Arabic language at home and/or born in an Arab country) are lesser educated, more likely to be in poverty, and more likely to identify as non-white or multi-racial than the Arab population as a whole. In contrast, persons in the Mexican alternative definition group (Mexican ancestry and/or born in Mexico) are more highly educated, less likely to be in poverty, and more likely to identify as white than the Mexican population as a whole. The article concludes with research and policy implications of these findings.     

Katrina in historical context: environment and migration in the U.S.

The massive publicity surrounding the exodus of residents from New Orleans spurred by Hurricane Katrina has encouraged interest in the ways that past migration in the U.S. has been shaped by environmental factors. So has Timothy Egan’s exciting book, The Worst Hard Time: The Untold Story of those who survived the Great American Dust Bowl. This article places those dramatic stories into a much less exciting context, demonstrating that the kinds of environmental factors exemplified by Katrina and the Dust Bowl are dwarfed in importance and frequency by the other ways that environment has both impeded and assisted the forces of migration. We accomplish this goal by enumerating four types of environmental influence on migration in the U.S.: (1) environmental calamities, including floods, hurricanes, earthquakes, and tornadoes, (2) environmental hardships and their obverse, short-term environmental benefits, including both drought and short periods of favorable weather, (3) environmental amenities, including warmth, sun, and proximity to water or mountains, and (4) environmental barriers and their management, including heat, air conditioning, flood control, drainage, and irrigation. In U.S. history, all four of these have driven migration flows in one direction or another. Placing Katrina into this historical context is an important task, both because the environmental calamities of which Katrina is an example are relatively rare and have not had a wide impact, and because focusing on them defers interest from the other kinds of environmental impacts, whose effect on migration may have been stronger and more persistent, though less dramatic.     

With friends like these. . .the role of prejudice and situational norms on discriminatory helping behavior

An experiment was conducted to examine the impact of homophobic attitudes and situational norms for helping on discriminatory behavior against a gay male. In a partial replication of Frey and Gaertner (1986), participants were asked to provide help to a confederate portrayed to be either gay or heterosexual who either requested help for himself (ambiguous situational norm) or for whom a third party requested help (unambiguous situational norm). Participants' levels of homophobia were assessed either before or after the main helping task. The results indicated that when norms for helping were ambiguous those participants higher in homophobia discriminated against the gay male, but only on subtle indicators of discrimination. In the unambiguous norm condition, participants higher in homophobia discriminated against the heterosexual male. Those lower in homophobia did not discriminate under either norm condition. The results show that it may be sufficient for those with prejudiced attitudes just to believe that it is not "the wrong thing to do" for their attitudes to be translated into some form of discriminatory behavior.     

A Network Evaluation of Attitudes Toward Gays and Lesbians Among U.S. Military Cadets

The U.S. military's ban on open homosexuality has become an increasingly salient issue since its implementation in 1993 and its repeal in 2011. The military is an organization with a unique professional and social organization. Evaluating military attitudes from a network perspective may offer insight into the role of formal and informal leadership in engendering attitudinal change and cultural tolerance around homosexuality. This study evaluates the role of network centrality and network exposure across formal (command networks) and informal (friendship and perceived leadership networks) structures on attitudes toward homosexuality in the military. This work analyzes survey data from a single cadet company within the U.S. Military Academy (n = 139) prior to the repeal of Don't Ask, Don't Tell. Results indicate that popular students tend to show tolerance toward homosexuality, whereas those who hold command leadership positions are more likely to have personal and professional opposition to homosexuality. In addition, formal superior–subordinate relationships are somewhat more likely to suggest social contagion compared to informal leadership and friendship relationships. Recommendations offer guidance for training strategies particularly with respect to a military leaders and socialization. Future research should monitor these issues relative to the post-DADT environment.     

Racial concentration and segregation across U.S. counties, 1950–1980

By presenting race-specific population concentration indexes for U.S. counties for the 1950-1980 period, this paper updates and extends previous analyses of 1900-1974 patterns of population concentration by Duncan et al. (1961) and Vining and Strauss (1977). Declines in population concentration persisted through 1980 only among the white population. Blacks continued to experience increases in population concentration between 1970 and 1980. These racially divergent patterns of concentration in the 1970s have translated into increases in segregation between blacks and whites across U.S. counties.     

Are There Differences in Anti-Gay Beliefs Among U.S. Veterans and Non-Veterans? Results from the General Social Survey

ABSTRACT

Only since 2011 have sexual minorities been able to serve openly in the U.S. military. The previous anti-gay policies and culture of the military may have increased anti-gay beliefs among veterans. Using data from the 2010–2016 General Social Survey, we tested whether veterans more frequently endorsed anti-gay beliefs than their non-veteran peers. Adjusting for sociodemographic characteristics with multiple logistic regression, we tested the associations of veteran status with five anti-gay beliefs (i.e., disallowing a gay person (1) from publicly speaking or (2) teaching at a university, (3) removing a gay-supportive book from a library, (4) whether same-sex sexual relations are wrong, and (5) support of same-sex marriage. Veteran status was associated with greater disagreement with same-sex marriage (B = 0.16, p = 0.033) but not with other anti-gay beliefs. Most anti-gay beliefs among veterans were explained by other sociodemographic factors and may not be inherent to veteran status.     

Sexual Orientation Stigmatization and Identity Work for Gays,Lesbians, and Bisexuals in the U.S. Military

ABSTRACT

This study examines communicative stigmatization processes and their influence on self-concept clarity for gays, lesbians, and bisexuals (GLB) in the United States military. In-depth interviews were conducted with GLB (N = 16) military service members and veterans, and data were analyzed using grounded theory analysis. Findings revealed that GLB identity repudiation incites feelings of identity incongruity for gays, lesbians, and bisexuals in the U.S. military. GLB identity repudiation was composed of three key communicative practices. Further, because non-heterosexuality was viewed as seemingly incompatible with the military identity, many participants struggled to integrate their two social identities effectively. As such, participants employed several strategies to manage their conflicting sexual and role identities.