公共政策变迁间断-平衡模型的修正及应用--兼论新中国科研政策变迁的渐进与突变规律

公共政策变迁间断—平衡分析框架是以美国三权分立和联邦制政治制度为基础构建的,原分析框架限定于考察美国公共政策变迁趋势。尝试从适用条件、理论假设、变迁过程和根本原因等维度对间断—平衡分析框架予以修正,将修正后分析框架的适用条件扩大为稳定的政治制度结构,同时用修正后的分析框架考察新中国建立以来科研政策变迁的总体规律性。这样就达致了两个目的：一是修正和检验公共政策变迁间断—平衡分析框架;二是考察新中国建立以来科研政策变迁趋势,并为解释公共政策变迁提供新的理论工具。     

数智时代我国面临的主要就业风险及治理路径

数智时代，劳动力市场出现新特征：新就业形态蓬勃发展、劳动力工作流动性增强、工作价值观发生重大转变、以学历为标识的人力资本投资竞争更为激烈、劳动力市场脆弱性加剧。就业风险呈现新变化：人们面临着技术性失业、群体性失业、规模性失业、长期性失业等就业数量风险，以及劳资关系失衡导致的工作贫困、长时间工作、就业歧视等就业质量风险，这些就业风险在范围、规模、种类、程度及发生频率上并未缩小而是扩大。这意味着，社会进步虽使人们抵御就业风险的能力增强，但并未从根本上消除甚至降低就业风险，应通过思维转向、多维治理、制度建设和能力提升治理就业风险，提高风险治理韧性，进而稳存量提质量，实现稳就业、保就业的目标。     

战略性新兴产业项目风险分析与防范

发展战略性新兴产业有重要意义,也有多种风险.项目是发展战略性新兴产业的载体,深入系统地分析战略性新兴产业项目的风险,有利于人们正确认识风险、识别风险、面对风险、防范风险.战略性新兴产业项目的风险有事故风险、技术风险、市场风险、效益风险、融资风险、管理风险.战略性新兴产业项目风险存在的原因有:特性、天灾、人祸.某些战略性新兴产业项目的事故风险一旦发生,其后果极为严重,如苏联切尔诺贝利核灾难和日本福岛第一核电站事故.对战略性新兴产业项目风险的防范需要建立健全风险的评价与设计机制、预测与预警机制、投资与救助机制、减灾与防灾机制、保险与赔偿机制、政策与体制机制、宣传与教育机制、监督与管理机制.     

规避与管理：风险社会中的行动逻辑——基于XX座谈会的观察与思考

本文是在对风险社会理论学习的基础上与现实的观察和思考相结合而写出的。在全球的现代化进程中，中国也开始进入风险社会时代。通过对一个主题为“网络游戏对未成年人风险”座谈会的观察与思考，在介绍相关背景后，先从风险社会学理论定义网络游戏对未成年的社会风险，然后通过实证材料展示和分析相关职责部门及个体对风险的认识与自我维护，最后从共识达成到公共政策的制定与执行这样一个过程初步探讨如何建立风险管理机制，从而在一定程度上阐释转型期的中国社会在应对风险时的行动逻辑。     

城中村征地安置社会稳定风险识别研究——基于A市240份访谈的内容分析

当前城中村征地安置冲突频发并愈演愈烈,处理不当将会造成难以估量的社会稳定风险。社会稳定风险识别是征地安置风险评估和管理的重要前提工作。本文基于A市240份访谈问卷的内容分析,研究发现当前城中村征地安置主要存在安置房风险、经济风险、延期风险、政策风险、特殊群体风险。安置房风险的概率最大,风险之间形成风险群并会随着时间演进。最后在对风险识别分析的基础上提供政策建议。     

论美国智库舆论影响力的形成机制

美国智库通过专家知识与舆论权力的高度结合,构成了影响世界政治、经济发展和全人类未来的重要舆论力星。本文从跨学科视角,提出"公共政策舆论场"概念和理论框架,分析大众传媒、利益集团、公众舆论在"公共政策舆论场"中所处的不同舆论地位和角色,从而明晰美国智库舆论影响力的形成机制及其核心地位。     

政策咨询网络的构建与运行机制设计——以澳门特别行政区为例

强化和完善政策咨询是提升公共政策民主性和科学性的重要方面。如何从网络和机制上做好政策咨询工作是当前公共政策理论和实践关注的焦点。经过十多年实践探索,澳门特区并不缺乏政策咨询的组织设计,唯多元咨询机构之间缺少必要的协调、合作和贯通。新一届特别行政区政府立志在科学决策上有所作为,但要实现这些目标,必须善用专家和民间智慧,建立起结构良好的政策咨询网络。同时,应在组织设立的基础上,设计出多元、多层咨询机构间的协调、协同与协商机制。     

农民工应对社会风险的对策分析

农民工流动就业的特点决定了农民工社会风险源的复杂性:农民工的风险冲击既有来自农村传统类型的社会风险,也有来自工业文明的现代社会风险。农民工风险结构使得农民工的抗风险机制设计不容缺失,但是农民工缺乏类同城市居民化解社会风险的现行抗风险机制。从政策运用评估方法考量农民工抗风险机制的结论来看,国家化解农民工社会风险的关键是建立全新的社会风险共担机制和提供完善的社会政策体系;而该体系与机制的制度载体便是农民工社会保障体系的制度安排。     

国外公共政策过程理论：反思与发展——读保罗·A·萨巴蒂尔《政策过程理论》

本文以萨巴蒂尔主编的《政策过程理论》一书的逻辑思路为主线,首先介绍了传统公共政策阶段启发论的发展过程及以萨巴蒂尔为代表的学者对其的反思,并在此基础上分析了萨巴蒂尔根据其框架分析标准选择的六个政策过程新理论框架,最后对这些新框架进行了进一步的反思和探讨。     

从社会救助看公共政策分析面临的问题与挑战

公共政策是对政府与顾客间的相互作用进行研究并揭示其特点的一种方法,政策研究与政策分析只是其不同称谓而已。公共政策分析的功能在于通过提供准确、有用的决策信     

重大决策社会稳定风险评估的制度反思与理论建构

社会稳定风险评估在重大决策程序中的引入,旨在通过一种自主性、嵌入性的程序构造,拓展传统的决策程序结构,增强决策过程的风险意识。社会稳定风险作为一种次生性、社会性、综合性风险,具有不同于技术性风险的特质,这要求社会稳定风险评估的制度建构,应当以决策过程开放、决策理性和决策民主为导向。社会稳定风险评估作为一种裁量程序,在实践中面临诸多难题,亟需将其纳入法治轨道。     

面对风险：公众安全感研究

本研究从人的需求理论出发,从人身、财产、食品、劳动、个人信息等方面对安全感进行研究,结合风险社会理论和“不安全时代”理论,采用问卷调查的方法对全国28个省市7100户居民进行调查,通过描述统计和多变量回归分析发现,社会稳定、社会治安、生活环境,以及性别、受教育程度、身体状况、社会经济地位等个体因素对安全感存在不同程度影响,风险认知和风险地位同时存在于风险评价。     

Child Protection Social Work: Risks of Fears and Fears of Risks – Impossible Tasks from Impossible Goals?

This article examines the relationship between the causes and effects of fear in child protection social workers, and the effects of risk assessment and risk management policies on this area of work. The focus on risk assessment and risk management has become a major area of attention within practice, policy and management of child protection work in the UK in recent years. Concepts of risk as constructed by the media, government and the public are increasingly impacting upon professional practices. This article examines the basis and validity of risk assessments in the social professions field, and particularly within the child protection arena. The article goes on to examine the experiences of fear arising from the risk agenda, which affects frontline workers, managers and child protection agencies. This agenda arises from centrally produced risk assessment frameworks, alongside unrealistic expectations from central government of prediction of risk by the use of current risk assessment tools. Such controlling policies from central government can lead to fear and anxiety in social work professionals of not assessing and eliminating risk, as the government and their employing agencies are expecting them to do. The article also proposes that this risk agenda fails to address a key element in the assessment of risk – how social workers experience threats and stress in their work, and the pressures they can be subject to within it, particularly in relation to violence and threats from parent service users where their children are being investigated for possible child abuse.     

中华帝国治理的“不可能三角”与治乱周期:从“风险论”出发

本文由曹正汉提出的“风险论”出发，以威权政体政权存续的理论视角，探究中国治乱周期与统治者风险治理策略之间的关系，以及在治乱之间，统治者透过何种机制调节动态平衡以维系政权，又为何调节风险平衡机制在某些时候能奏效在另一时点上却失灵。藉由历史制度主义的时序分析，本文提出风险治理的“不可能三角”，以解释治乱周期的波动，并发现风险调节机制之所以越到朝代后期越难奏效，肇因于开朝初期统治者为防制政变风险所采取的政治吸纳策略。这些策略随着时间演化及一连串反应序列后，破坏了统治者用来防治民变及外患风险的机制，并进一步弱化了国家的基础权力，导致国家能力下降，风险平衡机制失灵，从而陷入统治危机。     

Rethinking Risk Attitude: Aspiration as Pure Risk

There exists no completely satisfactory theory of risk attitude in current normative decision theories. Existing notions confound attitudes to pure risk with unrelated psychological factors such as strength of preference for certain outcomes, and probability weighting. In addition traditional measures of risk attitude frequently cannot be applied to non-numerical consequences, and are not psychologically intuitive. I develop Pure Risk theory which resolves these problems – it is consistent with existing normative theories, and both internalises and generalises the intuitive notion of risk being related to the probability of not achieving one’s aspirations. Existing models which ignore pure risk attitudes may be misspecified, and effects hitherto modelled as loss aversion or utility curvature may be due instead to Pure Risk attitudes.     

风险社会中《新闻联播·天气预报》节目的风险信息传播

2012年北京“7·21”特大暴雨造成重大人员伤亡,引起社会的深刻反思。风险社会中,《新闻联播·天气预报》节目的不足表现为：关注地区明显有偏重;气象服务单一;时间短促,语意模糊。大众传媒具有沟通信息、发挥社会监督能力的作用。应对《新闻联播·天气预报》节目进行以内容为主的改革,将改革的重点放在风险信息的传播上,覆盖地区力求广泛,服务内容务求多元,语言表述尽量清晰。     

A Comparative Study of Child Abuse Risk Assessment in the United States and Korea

The perceptions and judgments of social workers who interview the child and family are especially significant factors in child abuse assessment process. The current study describes and compares child protection workers’ assessment processes in Korea and the USA through the use of case vignettes and in‐depth interview. The responses from social workers in these two countries were compared and discussed in the areas of: risk assessment; perception of the main problems; tolerance of corporal punishment; and judgments about appropriateness of interventions. Most revealing was that Korean social workers determined abuse based on their child abuse definition and the US Army FAP social workers determined abuse based on their definition, which was affected by legal standards and cultural differences. Korean social workers are more likely to remove a child from the home, even in mild cases, but US FAP social workers would recommend child removal from the home as a last option. The social workers that participated in this survey play a vital role in the safety of children in child protective services. Both countries can benefit from sharing information to improve the child protection services delivered. Social workers' professional judgment leads to objective and consistent outcomes and are less likely to compromise child safety in the decision making process.     

Risk and its Management in Post-Financial Crisis Hong Kong

In the 1970s and up until the financial crisis occurred in the late 1990s, Hong Kong prospered in a relatively stable social, economic and political context. Since the financial crisis, however, its population has been increasingly exposed to risk: there has been job uncertainty and decreasing capacity for self‐reliance, leading to a growing reliance on public welfare and on families at a time when both are under pressure. The old welfare policies, unable to cope with the new risks, have been replaced by neo‐liberal reforms, redistributing the roles and responsibilities of the individual and the state, with a greater burden falling on the former. Individuals are required to be prudent to manage risk. While these reforms have relieved some of the burden on the state, both new social risk groups and ‘net taxpayers’ considered themselves to have borne disproportional costs. Society is facing serious problems resulting from ineffective old welfare policies, new social risks due to new policies, and the political upheavals arising from increased social conflicts and weakened social cohesion and solidarity. A further complication is that there is no acceptable platform or agent to negotiate a compromise between the polarized groups. This article argues that reliance on publicly funded risk coping strategies or on neo‐liberal risk prevention and mitigation strategies is not a desirable and sustainable policy. A commonly accepted political platform is required to negotiate a compromise which emphasizes shared and balanced roles and responsibilities, and a well‐conceived combination of risk prevention, mitigation and coping strategies.     

国家出资企业防范制度创新风险对策研究

国家出资企业制度创新风险包括决策风险和实施风险两类。制度创新风险具有可管理性、无向后传递性、效应滞后性与温和性的特征,依据风险概率和风险影响两个维度选择风险管理策略,包括避免风险、转移风险和慎重管理风险,建立以董事会风险管理委员会和监事会为主体的风险管理组织,监控制度创新风险。国家出资企业防范制度创新风险的对策是促使企业成为制度创新主体,建立制度创新实施机制,有效增加制度供给,实现正式制度与非正式制度兼容。

Abstract：

Systematic innovation Risks in enterprises capitalized by state consist of decision making risk and implementation risk.They have the properties such as being manageable,devoid of transmitting backward,lagging effect and being mild.Risk management strategies can be made according to risk probability and risk effect,including avoiding risk,transferring risk and prudent management of risk.The risk management organization can be established based on risk management committee made up of board of directors and board of supervisors in order to supervise systematic innovation risk.The study of the counter plan aims at turning the enterprises to the subject of this innovation,establishing the implementation mechanism,increasing the provision to the system and realizing the compatibility of formal system and informal one.     

利益认同与社会主义核心价值认同——以化解社会风险为视域

利益是价值的尺度,可以用利益认同来推动价值认同。党和国家领导人高度重视社会风险问题,化解社会风险可以实现利益认同,进而转化成社会主义核心价值认同。建立利益机制化解社会风险,推动社会主义核心价值认同,体现在四个方面：化解经济风险,巩固核心价值认同的物质基础;化解政治风险,创造核心价值认同的民主前提;化解文化风险,营造核心价值认同的人文氛围;化解公共风险,改善核心价值认同的安全环境。