从一次人口转变到二次人口转变——现代人口转变及其启示

在扼要解析狭义人口转变及其经典模型的基础上,认为第二次人口转变的提出,是结合人口"中间变量"从广义上阐释了人口变化的内在动因与作用机理,进而在宏观、中观和微观三个层面引入了对现代人口转变与社会变迁关系的思考。主张人口转变是一个多维的动态历史过程,蕴涵着婚姻、生育、家庭、健康、人口调控等系列转变。提出第二次人口转变在中国的城市地区已露端倪。最后特别指出人口转变不仅仅是人口变化,更重要的是将其嵌套的社会变迁,两者关系的空前紧密折射着社会变化与社会需求。过去30年中国通过计划生育让人口"适应"了经济腾飞,而今后三、五十年以至更长时间,应使人口的"主体"地位逐步复归,让经济社会发展适应新的人口变化与社会需求,提高人口生存与生命质量,这才是发展的目的本身。     

日本失去的二十年——基于中日人口红利比较的视角

"人口红利"是人口因素与经济增长关系研究的深入和发展。亚洲地区经济高速增长和工业化国家人口老龄化条件下经济增长,分别对应第一次"人口红利"和第二次"人口红利"。中国与日本相比,无论是经济增长模式还是人口转变模式,都有着极为相似之处,本文旨在通过对比分析中日两国人口发展与经济发展之间的变化,借鉴日本人口红利期的经验和教训,为中国充分实现第一次人口红利、创造第二次人口红利提供参考。     

中国特色的人口转变

从人口均衡发展的角度对人口转变理论进行了研究,认为人口转变是由低级人口均衡转变为高级人口均衡的跃迁过程,人口"总量相对静止、结构高位稳定"是最理想的人口发展状态。中国人口转变经历了超前经济发展的"人口转变"和与经济互动发展的"后人口转变"两个阶段,人口转变过程中需跨越"高少儿抚养"和"高老年赡养"的两次陷阱。稳定适度低生育水平和提升人口素质是未来根本任务,从较短期看总和生育率保持在1.8左右,从中长期看总和生育率回归更替水平,是"后人口转变"时期的战略目标,也是促进人口长期均衡发展的必由之路。     

我国五个民族自治区经济发展和人口变动研究

改革开放以来,内蒙古、广西、西藏、宁夏和新疆等5个民族自治区的经济社会都得到了有史以来的最快发展。但是,5个民族地区因历史和自然条件的差异导致发展的进程有所不同,其中内蒙古基础最好、发展最快,广西次之,西藏、宁夏和新疆等3个自治区的发展速度相对较慢。5个民族地区的经济和人口变动显示出3个不同队列特征,反映了决定经济社会发展的主导因素是那些影响国家和民族现代工业化进程的社会历史基础及自然地理等经济发展条件,而不是民族和人口因素。5个民族自治区的人口变动状况都直接反映了各个民族地区经济因素的作用结果,而生育政策对人口过程却没有显示出预期应有的关联性。     

俄罗斯的人口老龄化

随着社会经济的发展和科技进步,人口老龄化已经成为现代社会的必然趋势,是世界各国普遍面临的重大社会问题。俄罗斯人口转变过程开始的时间较晚,但人口老龄化速度较快,地区差异大,而且城市和农村之间存在差别,老龄化形势严峻。制定合理的、符合本国国情的社会政策能够缓解人口老龄化问题。     

“未富先老”与“边富边老”：对立还是统一

两大命题各有依归、认识互补。“未富先老”说明的是发展与老龄化关系的先后次序，“边富边老”则说明了两者关系的数量演变。未富是说我们能力不足，先老是说面临的挑战巨大。一先一后，凸显出人口老龄化挑战的严峻性。“边富边老”命题的提出进一步细化和发展了“未富先老”命题，体现了与时俱进的时代精神，可以增强我们解决养老问题的信心。     

中国人口转变道路的探索和选择

从1949年到1978年,中国在进行社会主义道路探索的同时也在进行着对中国人口转变道路的探索。建国初期,通过开展群众卫生运动,死亡率迅速下降,开启了中国人口转变的进程。20世纪50年代,初次面对人口快速增长问题,中国提出了"实现有计划的生育"的理论和构想,人口转变的中国道路开始孕育。经历了"大跃进"时期的思想动摇、工作停滞和此后的人口继续快速增长等种种波折之后,人们在人口与社会经济矛盾激增的过程中明确了中国人口转变道路的方向。最后,在"文革"期间,脆弱的国民经济和日益增长的人口压力迫使中国选择了一条主动控制人口过快增长、实行计划生育的人口转变道路。这条道路是由时代发展特征和中国的特殊国情共同决定的。     

Exploration and Establishment of the Chinese Model of Demographic Transition

Exploration of Chinese paths of socialist construction and demographic transition paralleled each other from 1949 to 1978.Mortality rate decreased rapidly during the early 1950s as a result of the public health campaign,which initiated the process of demographic transition in China.Countering the problem of rapid population growth in 1950s,China put forward the theory and the concept of "realizing planned childbearing",and the Chinese model of demographic transition was brewing.Orientation of the Chinese path of demographic transition was reinforced in the 1960s in the context of intensifying contradiction between population and socio-economic development.Finally,China launched the demographic transition by vigorously implementing population control and family planning in the 1970s in the midst of "Cultural Revolution" when the rapidly increasing size of population exerted great pressure on economic development.The Chinese path of demographic transition is determined by the changing characteristics of the times and China’s special national conditions.     

Balanced Regional Development in China： Demographic and Economic Distribution Mismatch

Nhtional Health and Family Planning：Commission （NHF（PC） held a Working Meeting on Establishment of National Resident Physician Standardized Training System in Shanghai on February 13＇ 2014, to formally launch the construction of resident physician standardiZed training system with fire-year undergraduate medical education plus three-year resident physician training as the main mode It will bring about profound changes to medical education in China.     

Population reproduction and migration in Yugoslavia since World War 2]

Yugoslavia is composed of 6 formerly independent countries. Therefore, the economic development and population growth rates are quite different in different areas. The population growth rate varies from .31% in developed areas to 1.37% in mid-developed areas to 2.78% in underdeveloped areas. In developed areas there are large urban populations and more women with higher education and social involvement. The mortality rate in Yugoslavia has been markedly reduced in the last few decades because of the improvement of their health care system. This is especially obvious in mid- and underdeveloped areas. The mortality rate has increased in developed areas because of the increase in traffic accidents, smoking, drinking, and suicides. Yugoslavia is a multiracial country, and the population growth rate differs among the different races. The nationwide family planning program in Yugoslavia is run on a voluntary basis, and they do not have a unified population policy because of their complicated racial and economic situation. After World War 2 a large portion of the population migrated from the country to the cities because of the mechanization of agriculture. The higher living standard in developed areas also attracted people to migrate from mid- and underdeveloped areas. Yugoslavia has a tradition of emigration--a .1 to .2% annual emigration rate. The government encouraged their people to find jobs abroad in the mid 1960's.     

Learning-by-doing,population pressure,and the theory of demographic transition

The present paper discusses the long-run effects of two interdependent relations between economic and population growth. According to a frequently used formulation of the population-push hypothesis, learning-by-doing effects in production lead to increasing returns to scale and, therefore, to a positive correlation between economic and population growth. In accordance to the theory of demographic transition the population growth rate initially increases with rising income levels and then declines. Regarding this relationship, the existence and stability of a low-income equilibrium and a high-income equilibrium will be shown in a neoclassical growth model. Under plausible conditions a demo-economic transition from the first to the second steady-state takes place. The result yields a meaningful interpretation of the population-push hypothesis, which is consistent with the empirical findings on the correlation between economic and population growth. Received March 8, 1996 / Accepted October 24, 1996     

The evaluation of China's population policy]

China's population policy has had tremendous effects on the reduction of fertility. The impact of the population policy is manifested in the following aspects. 1) Reducing the size of the total population by 200 million in 17 years. If the population growth rate had remained at its 1970 level of 2.6/1000, the total population would have been 1.28 billion in 1987. 2) The implementation of the population policy accelerated the process of demographic transition. The mortality decline which began in the early 1950s initiated the demographic transition. The Fertility decline began after the birth control policy was implemented and shifted the transition to a low population growth stage even before the socioeconomic conditions which are considered to be the determinants of fertility decline appeared. The fertility decline, in turn, promoted the socioeconomic development of the country. 3) Solving the problem of food; feeding 21.6% of the world's population on 7.1% of the world's farm land is no easy task. The success of population control, no doubt, played an important role in lowering the population growth rate so that the growth of food production could keep pace with the needs of the population. 4) A decline in the dependency ratio is a favorable condition to socioeconomic development. China's dependency ratio of 59.7 is among the lowest in developing countries and is close to the level in developed countries. Therefore, more production output can be used in investment rather than consumption. 5) The fertility decline facilitated a balanced economic growth. The ratio of population growth as compared to the growth of major economic indicators should be considered an important issue in maintaining macroeconomic control. The population policy made it possible for economic growth to surpass population growth.     

中国人口转变、人口红利与经济增长的实证

我国人口年龄结构的变动使得劳动负担逐渐下降,这对于储蓄水平的上升和劳动力投入效率的提高具有显著的促进作用;我国劳动负担比与经济增长呈现出明显的负相关,劳动负担比每下降1个百分点,经济增长将提高1.06个百分点,在过去的30年里劳动负担降低累计带来的经济增长占总增长的27.23%。通过计量检验证明人口年龄结构变动所产生的促进经济增长的人口红利是存在的。由此我们推断,由于未来的人口年龄结构变动趋向人口老龄化,劳动负担逐步上升,这将会对未来的经济增长造成制约。利用未来10～20年时间较轻的劳动负担的机遇期,我们应当建立良好的教育、人力资本投资、社会保障等方面的制度以及制定积极的人口政策,调整当前生育政策、适时执行宏观经济政策(劳动就业政策)来应对已发生的、正在进行的人口变动,使我国的经济继续保持强有力的增长态势。     

人口因素对CO2排放的影响:区域差异与动态变化

基于1995—2009年中国省级面板数据,利用IPAT模型建立基本的分析框架,研究人口数量、人口年龄结构、人口城市化率以及家庭规模等人口因素对我国CO2排放的影响,结果显示,由于人口因素与CO2排放的关系与经济发展特征有关,而我国处于经济快速增长的过程中且区域经济发展存在差异,使得影响我国全国CO2排放的人口因素不同于各区域内部,在经济发展的不同阶段、甚至不同年份,导致省际CO2排放差异的人口因素也在不断变化。     

Urbanization in Thailand, 1947–1967

Utilizing both census and population register data for the period 1947–1967, this analysis assesses changing levels and rates of urbanization in Thailand, compares regional variations in urbanization patterns, and relates such differences to selected indicators of economic and demographic development. Although the overall level of urbanization remains low, the rate of urbanization is high and the increase in the number of moderate sized urban places significant. Greater Bangkok, accounting for over half of Thailand’s urban population and almost two–thirds of all urban growth, has increased its primacy in Thailand’s urban structure. But urban development has also begun to permeate all regions of the country and to be an important factor in the complex process of national social and economic development.     

人口转变的储蓄效应和增长效应--论中国增长可持续性的人口因素

人口转变是挑战中国经济持续增长的一个重要因素.在这个过程中,个人的生命周期和代际更替之间的相互叠加,通过劳动供给、储蓄和科技进步等渠道对长期经济增长施加影响.本文分析表明,人口转变使得中国从20世纪60年代中期开始享受人口红利,并一直持续到2015年前后.为了迎接人口老龄化冲击,中国需要通过扩大就业、加快人力资本积累和建立适合于中国国情的可持续的养老保障模式三条途径来充分挖掘未来潜在的人口红利,推动中国经济持续增长.     

中国人口转变与消费制度变迁

从抑制消费到刺激消费是中国消费制度的重大变革。本文运用新制度经济学和人口经济学理论,论证了中国人口转变通过人口增长的迅速下降,人口年龄结构的变化及其带来的人口红利对消费制度变迁的影响:死亡率下降主导的初期阶段,人口转变固化了抑制消费的制度,出生率下降主导阶段,人口转变与改革开放条件下的高速经济增长相叠加加剧了原有消费制度的不均衡。通过实证分析,揭示出消费率在人口转变过程中下降的必然性和中国保持适度人口增长的必要。     

超低生育率阶段的区域人口发展战略

随着我国人口转变的实现和完成,越来越多的地方进入了"超低生育率"发展阶段,未来时期的人口发展战略面临着何去何从的抉择。以辽宁省辽阳市为案例总结区域人口转变的阶段和特点,指出辽阳已经出现"意愿性超低生育率"现象,带来了人口发展风险问题。随着计划生育风险家庭和残缺家庭的增多,辽阳的公共财政压力已经感受到巨大挑战。人口安全要求坚守计划生育的"底线伦理",降低计划生育风险家庭和残缺家庭在整个计划生育家庭中的规模和比例。未来的区域人口安全发展战略必须考虑确立的两个基本点是"优先健全人口结构、兼顾控制人口增量",不鼓励农村一女户放弃二胎生育指标,尽快建立独生子女家庭风险防范的社会机制和独生子女困难家庭公益救助机制。     

Demographic transition and the emerging windows of opportunities and challenges in Bangladesh

The aim of this paper is to examine the demographic transition and the emerging window of opportunities and challenges in Bangladesh. The study utilizes time series data from national level population surveys, censuses and the population projections and estimates produced by the United Nations Population Division. The ongoing demographic transition in Bangladesh leads to many changes in the size and age structure of the rapidly growing population of the country, giving rise to economic and social opportunities as well as policy challenges. The window of opportunity that has emerged since the 1990s will not last long and will not be repeated in the near future. It will reach its peak during the 2020s and will remain open until the 2030s. This demographic dividend needs to be managed efficiently in order to be transformed into better and sustainable economic growth. Understanding demographic challenges must therefore be a priority for the Government of Bangladesh, which must formulate policies to harvest the benefits of the demographic opportunities.     

人口因素在北京市水资源压力中的驱动作用分析

文章在对北京市水资源压力变动趋势进行分析的基础上,进一步使用对数平均的因素分解法对北京市2001～2010年间的用水量进行各类驱动因素的分析,研究人口规模变化、家庭规模和数量等人口学因素在各种驱动因素中的地位和作用。结果表明,北京市水资源压力很大,而且近年来呈现持续上升、逐年加剧的趋势;北京市用水量增长最大的驱动因素是人均GDP的增长;人口数量、家庭数量以及家庭规模等人口学要素对用水量变化有一定的作用,但并非是北京市用水量变化的最主要因素;提高生产部门的水资源利用率,引导居民树立合理的消费观对缓解北京市水资源压力、提高人口承载力有重要意义。