乔治·W·布什中东政策的政治心理探析

本文结合政治心理学原理,对乔治·W·布什的中东政策进行分析,认为布什的家庭背景、宗教信仰、工作经历等因素对其政治人格形成起了关键作用,美国的中东政策实际上是布什政治人格的真实反映.     

中东棋盘上的伊拉克战略地位浅析

地缘政治是一种战略地理学，属国际关系理论中现实主义学派的一个理论支派。布什上台后，美国对外政策表现出明显的现实主义和实用主义色彩。美国避开联合国、北约甚至欧洲盟友对伊动武有经济、政治、丈化、价值观等许多深层原因，但用地缘政治理论更能清楚地了解布什中东政策的本质。通过考察伊拉克的战略地位及其在中东棋盘中的作用，有助于研究美伊战争后中东格局的演变方向。     

中东棋盘上的伊拉克战略地位浅析

地缘政治是一种战略地理学,属国际关系理论中现实主义学派的一个理论支派.布什上台后,美国对外政策表现出明显的现实主义和实用主义色彩.美国避开联合国、北约甚至欧洲盟友对伊动武有经济、政治、文化、价值观等许多深层原因,但用地缘政治理论更能清楚地了解布什中东政策的本质.通过考察伊拉克的战略地位及其在中东棋盘中的作用,有助于研究美伊战争后中东格局的演变方向.     

中东和平“路线图”：沙漠中的海市蜃楼？

冷战结束以来,美国的中东政策主要是“东遏两伊,西促和谈”。另外,小布什也接受了其父亲老布什在海湾战争之后“赢了战争,输了大选”的惨痛教训,决心推动中东和谈,“路线图”计划应运而生。     

从第三次中东战争看美国中东政策的调整

第三次中东战争的爆发使得人们对约翰逊上台之后美国中东政策的调整有了更加强烈的感性认识。这种调整是历史、现实等多种因素交织在一起的结果，表现在政治、经济、军事各个方面。随着美国中东政策的调整，中东局势乃至美苏争夺态势都产生了深远的影响。     

美国“整合”中东政策及其困境

为称霸全球，美国在中东开始实行以反恐、防扩、民主改造伊斯兰世界为基本特征的“整合”政策。中东政治的现实虽为其提供了一定的基础，但“整合”政策的缺失，必遇重重阻力。     

中东事务中多极化趋势的发展

在战后近半个世纪的冷战时期,中东地区成为美、苏两个超级大国激烈争夺和抗衡的地区.苏联解体后,美国迅速将势力扩及整个中东,并以海湾危机为契机,通过海湾战争和推动中东和平进程确立了它在该地区的主导地位.但这些年来,美国的中东政策屡遭挫折,其霸主地位受到多方面的挑战,中东和平进程中的多极格局虽然尚未形成,但多极化趋势已初露端倪.一、美国谋求独揽中东事务美国重视中东,首先是因为该地区对美国有着重大的现实和战略利益.冷战结束后,中东对美国利益的重要性得到美国政府的进一步确认.美国前总统布什曾强调:“自由世界对这个关键性地区的能源供应的依赖以及我们同这个地区许多国家的牢固关系,仍然是美     

关于中国-中东能源关系发展的若干思考

在过去的几年里,随着中国对中东石油依赖的日益增长,中国-中东双边政治、经济、外交和战略关系进入快速发展时期,中东石油在中国能源安全战略中的地位和作用日益凸显,中国的中东政策面临多重挑战,中国需要重新评估和更加突出中东石油在中国对外战略中的战略定位,重视双边能源合作机制建设的重要性,以确保中东石油对中国的长期和稳定供应。此外,中国在中东的能源利益已经引起美国等西方国家的高度关注和忧虑,引起了中国与美国的能源地缘政治冲突,为此中国的中东政策还必须兼顾与美国等西方国家的利益关系平衡,寻求中美在中东石油安全和广泛问题上的共同利益。     

关于中国——中东能源关系发展的若干思考

在过去的几年里,随着中国对中东石油依赖的日益增长,中国—中东双边政治、经济、外交和战略关系进入快速发展时期,中东石油在中国能源安全战略中的地位和作用日益凸显,中国的中东政策面临多重挑战,中国需要重新评估和更加突出中东石油在中国对外战略中的战略定位,重视双边能源合作机制建设的重要性,以确保中东石油对中国的长期和稳定供应。此外,中国在中东的能源利益已经引起美国等西方国家的高度关注和忧虑,引起了中国与美国的能源地缘政治冲突,为此中国的中东政策还必须兼顾与美国等西方国家的利益关系平衡,寻求中美在中东石油安全和广泛问题上的共同利益。     

从第三次中东战争看美国中东政策的调整

第三次中东战争的爆发使得人们对约翰逊上台之后美国中东政策的调整有了更加强烈的感性认识.这种调整是历史、现实等多种因素交织在一起的结果,表现在政治、经济、军事各个方面.随着美国中东政策的调整,中东局势乃至美苏争夺态势都产生了深远的影响.     

中期选举后美国中东政策调整的可能性和局限性

中期选举后,共和党失去对国会的控制权,美国极端保守主义势力遭到沉重打击,美国国内要求布什政府调整中东政策的呼声日高。在中东战略和伊拉克政策严重受挫的严酷现实面前以及在国内外多重压力之下,布什政府有可能对现有政策做出一定的调整。但这种调整将受到布什总统本人的价值判断以及其他各种现实因素的诸多限制,具有明显的局限性。     

美国中东政策调整与中、美、阿关系互动

迫于国际形势和国内外舆论压力，布什政府从2007年开始调整中东政策，把遏制伊朗作为政策重点。为此，美国重新扮演了巴以和平调解人的角色，主动缓和与阿拉伯国家关系。美阿关系的发展对正在积极参与中东事务的中国具有重要意义。未来中东仍是美国对外战略关注的重点，“美国因素”在中阿关系中会更加频繁，三者互动将更为密切。中国对中东问题的积极立场及对中东事务的主动参与，对于推动中、美、阿关系的良性互动将产生深远影响。     

中国青年政治意识的未来发展

青年政治意识作为社会政治现象中的一个特殊方面,对中国、中国特色社会主义乃至中国特色社会主义政治的长远发展都具有重要的现实意义。以社会主义公共意识为基础,以主体性、发展性为一般属性,以政治性、积极性和行动性为特殊属性的政治行动意识作为主体政治心理走向政治人格的重要中介,是中国青年政治意识发展的未来取向,以政治参与意识为中心的青年政治行动意识培养是中国青年政治意识未来发展的重要路径。     

Ideas in action: the politics of Prussian child labor reform, 1817–1839

This article explains the political origins of an 1839 law regulating the factory employment of children in Prussia. The article has two aims. First, it seeks to explain why Prussia adopted the particular law that it did. Existing historical explanations of this particular policy change are not correct, largely because they fail to take into account the actual motivations and intentions of key reformers. Second, the article contributes to theories of the role of ideas in public policymaking. Ideas interact with institutional and political factors to serve as motivators and as resources for policy change. As motivators, they drive political action and shape the content of policy programs; as resources, they enable political actors to recruit supporters and forge alliances. I offer a theory of the relationship between ideas, motivation, and political action, and I develop a methodological framework for assessing the reliability of political actors’ expressed motivations. Further, I explain how political actors use ideas as resources by deploying three specific ideational strategies: framing, borrowing, and citing. By tracing how different understandings of the child labor problem motivated and were embodied in two competing child labor policy proposals, I show how the ideas underlying reform had significant consequences for policy outcomes.     

Political origin and persistence of industrial policy in Africa

ABSTRACT

The literature on industrial policy in Africa has generally explained its political origins in terms of ruling elites’ distribution of benefits to their supporters. However, in competitive political contexts in which policies are deeply political and designed to satisfy clients, such as policies that support party donors, the problem of policy discontinuity is bound to arise because a change in ruling party is bound to alter the direction of distributional policies. The current paper uses Nigeria’s backward integration policy (BIP), an industrial policy on cement production, to sharpen the analytical distinction between the origins and persistence. Although the ruling elites’ political quest for survival explains the origin of Nigeria’s industrial policy on cement (ruling elites were in search of re-election funds and teamed up with domestic capitalists for donations, who in turn influenced the political elites to create policies in their area of business), it does not explain the continuation.     

Individuals as authors of human rights: not only addressees

I propose human rights as self-authored through a personality structure of “assertive selfhood.” To that end I identify three features of self-authorship: emergent through collective political action; as a critical stance; and borne by non-idiosyncratic norms. So conceived, human rights require a field of recognition as a social structure supportive of claims to assertive selfhood. I show that the capacity to self-grant depends critically on the participant’s personality structure as well as on the structure of some of the social institutions he or she inhabits. But like any political vision, the project for self-granted human rights has distinct limits, above all with respect to the many inequalities among potential self-authors.     

ENVIRONMENTAL JUSTICE AND THE POLITICAL PROCESS: Movements, Corporations, and the State

I explore two questions in this article: (1) How has the role of the U.S. state in the political process changed vis‐à‐vis corporations? (2) What tactical repertoires have movements devised to confront this changing political process? Through the lens of the U.S. environmental movement, I find that (1) the state's policy‐making authority has weakened as corporations have become both policy makers and the new targets of challengers, (2) the environmental movement has devised organizing strategies–such as corporate‐community compacts or good neighbor agreements–to respond to and influence this new political process, and (3) those segments of the movement that ignore the political economic process are likely to meet with failure. These changes in the political economy constitute a challenge for the political process model. I therefore propose a “political economic process’ perspective to extend the political process model and more accurately capture these dynamics. The political economic process perspective evaluates four state‐centric assumptions of the political process model (the state as the primary movement target or vehicle of reform, the state policy‐making monopoly, capital as just another interest group, and the primacy of the nation‐state level of analysis) and demonstrates that the political economic process has changed in dramatic ways.     

What Drives Progressive Policy? Institutional Politics,Political Mediation,Policy Feedbacks,and Early U.S. Old‐Age Policy

What drives progressive public policy? Because progressive policy challenges the interests of powerful people and interests that dominate policy making, it is puzzling that progressive policy ever happens. This article addresses this question by modeling and appraising institutional political, political mediation, and policy feedback theories and models of progressive policy making. Institutional political theory focuses on political institutional conditions, bureaucratic development, election results, and public opinion. Political mediation theory holds that social movements can have influence over progressive policy under favorable political conditions. Policy feedback theory holds that programs will be self‐reinforcing under certain conditions. The article goes beyond previous research by including and analyzing public opinion in institutional political and political mediation models and addressing positive policy feedbacks. We appraise five models derived from these three theories through fuzzy set qualitative comparative analyses of the generosity of early old‐age policy across U.S. states at two key moments. We find some support for each theory, and the results suggest that they are complementary. Left regimes or social movements can initiate progressive policy, which can be reinforced for the long term through positive policy feedback mechanisms. We discuss the implications for current U.S. politics and for progressive policy elsewhere.     

Adolescent Attitudes Toward Male and Female Political Candidates:

Adolescents' attitudes toward male and female fictional political candidates were measured in a three-factor experimental design. Male and female high school students were asked to rate the personality of male or female political candidates before and after finding out the election outcome. The students made causal attributions about the reasons for the election outcomes and predicted the personal consequences the candidates would experience. The personality ratings, causal attributions, and future consequences showed primarily outcome effects rather than sex of a subject or sex of candidate effects. The adolescents responded differentially to the fictional candidate as a function of the candidate's success or failure rather than the candidate's gender. These findings are discussed in light of real world explanations and applications.     

Impact of Political Risk and Uncertainty on FDI in South Asia

This study examines the potential effect of political risk and macroeconomic policy uncertainty on FDI in South Asia. To highlight the affect of political risk and macro policy uncertainty on FDI, we setup a theoretical framework based on oligopolistic and imperfect competition environment in host country. Autoregressive distributed lags (ARDL) is used to examine the impact of political risk and macro economic policy uncertainty index on FDI inflows. Macroeconomic policy uncertainty and political risk indices are constructed for this purpose. The long run results show negative affect of political risk and macroeconomic policy uncertainty indices on FDI inflows. Trade openness shows positive effect on FDI inflows only in short run while in long run it has negative impact on due lack of creditability regarding consistent trade liberalization policy and high trade cost. Furthermore, the market size significantly affects the inflow of FDI both in long run and short run which shows that FDI inflows in South Asia are mainly depend on market size. South Asian economies need to focus on political and macroeconomic factors along with FDI incentives policies to attract more FDI.