Wald检验不一致性的微分几何解释及改进

Wald检验对于等价的零假设中不同形式的表达式在有限样本的情况下缺乏一致性,而从微分几何的角度来解释这一现象,并发现由于Wald统计量是一个混杂的不恰当的几何量,从而对不同的含参数的等价表达式不具有一致性。同时还展示了芬斯拉（Finsler）测地统计量如何能较为简便的计算出来、它在线性回归模型中的非线性约束条件下如何应用以及两者在什么情况下保持一致,并提出了一种解决Wald检验不一致性的思路。     

Homogeneity Test of Risk Differences of Marginal and Conditional Probabilities in Several Incomplete Correlated 2 × 2 Tables

This article considers K pairs of incomplete correlated 2 × 2 tables in which the interesting measurement is the risk difference between marginal and conditional probabilities. A Wald-type statistic and a score-type statistic are presented to test the homogeneity hypothesis about risk differences across strata. Powers and sample size formulae based on the above two statistics are deduced. Figures about sample size against risk difference (or marginal probability) are given. A real example is used to illustrate the proposed methods.     

Consistent GMM Residuals-Based Tests of Functional Form

This paper presents a consistent Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) residuals-based test of functional form for time series models. By relating two moments we deliver a vector moment condition in which at least one element must be nonzero if the model is misspecified. The test will never fail to detect misspecification of any form for large samples, and is asymptotically chi-squared under the null, allowing for fast and simple inference. A simulation study reveals randomly selecting the nuisance parameter leads to more power than supremum-tests, and can obtain empirical power nearly equivalent to the most powerful test for even relatively small n.     

Robust Testing Procedures in Heteroscedastic Linear Models

There exist many studies which treat the robust tests in homoscedastic linear models. However, the robust testing procedure in heteroscedastic linear models has not been examined. In this article, three classes of testing procedures for testing subhypothesis in heteroscedastic linear models are developed. These are Wald-type, score-type, and drop-in dispersion tests. The asymptotic distributions of these tests are obtained under the null hypothesis and contiguous alternatives. For a robustness criterion, the maximum asymptotic bias of the level of the test for distributions in a shrinking contamination neighborhood is used and the most-efficient robust test is derived. Finally, the performance of these tests in small sample is studied by Monte Carlo simulation.     

A unified approach to marginal equivalence in the general framework of group invariance

ABSTRACT

Two Bayesian models with different sampling densities are said to be marginally equivalent if the joint distribution of observables and the parameter of interest is the same for both models. We discuss marginal equivalence in the general framework of group invariance. We introduce a class of sampling models and derive marginal equivalence when the prior for the nuisance parameter is relatively invariant. We also obtain some robustness properties of invariant statistics under our sampling models. Besides the prototypical example of v-spherical distributions, we apply our general results to two examples—analysis of affine shapes and principal component analysis.     

A partial score test for difference among heterogeneous populations

In event time data analysis, comparisons between distributions are made by the logrank test. When the data appear to contain crossing hazards phenomena, nonparametric weighted logrank statistics are usually suggested to accommodate different-weighted functions to increase the power. However, the gain in power by imposing different weights has its limits since differences before and after the crossing point may balance each other out. In contrast to the weighted logrank tests, we propose a score-type statistic based on the semiparametric-, heteroscedastic-hazards regression model of Hsieh [2001. On heteroscedastic hazards regression models: theory and application. J. Roy. Statist. Soc. Ser. B 63, 63–79.], by which the nonproportionality is explicitly modeled. Our score test is based on estimating functions derived from partial likelihood under the heteroscedastic model considered herein. Simulation results show the benefit of modeling the heteroscedasticity and power of the proposed test to two classes of weighted logrank tests (including Fleming–Harrington's test and Moreau's locally most powerful test), a Renyi-type test, and the Breslow's test for acceleration. We also demonstrate the application of this test by analyzing actual data in clinical trials.     

Inferences Concerning Exponential Distributions in the Presence of Randomly Right Censored Data with Missing Censored Values

Inferences concerning exponential distributions are considered from a sampling theory viewpoint when the data are randomly right censored and the censored values are missing. Both one-sample and m-sample (m 2) problems are considered. Likelihood functions are obtained for situations in which the censoring mechanism is informative which leads to natural and intuitively appealing estimators of the unknown proportions of censored observations. For testing hypotheses about the unknown parameters, three well-known test statistics, namely, likelihood ratio test, score test, and Wald-type test are considered.     

Semi-empirical pseudo-likelihood for estimating equations in the presence of missing responses

Consider a semiparametric model which parameterizes only the conditional distribution of Y given X, f(y|x,β), and allows the marginal distribution of X to be completely arbitrary. Under the semiparametric model, we develop semi-empirical pseudo-likelihood inference with estimating equation in the presence of missing responses. We define semi-empirical likelihood pseudo-score estimates for both the model parameter and the parameter in the estimating equation simultaneously. Also, we develop semi-empirical pseudo-likelihood ratio inference for them, respectively. A simulation was conducted to evaluate the finite sample properties of the proposed estimators and semi-empirical pseudo-likelihood approach.     

Testing equality of correlation coefficients for paired binary data from multiple groups

Paired binary data arise naturally when paired body parts are investigated in clinical trials. One of the widely used models for dealing with this kind of data is the equal correlation coefficients model. Before using this model, it is necessary to test whether the correlation coefficients in each group are actually equal. In this paper, three test statistics (likelihood ratio test, Wald-type test, and Score test) are derived for this purpose. The simulation results show that the Score test statistic maintains type I error rate and has satisfactory power, and therefore is recommended among the three methods. The likelihood ratio test is over conservative in most cases, and the Wald-type statistic is not robust with respect to empirical type I error. Three real examples, including a multi-centre Phase II double-blind placebo randomized controlled trial, are given to illustrate the three proposed test statistics.     

A test for variance-covarianch parameters in normal linear models

This paper derives a test statistic for the variance-covariance parameters which is a quadratic function of their MINQUE (Minimum Norm Quadratic Unbiased Estimation) estimates. The test is a Wald-type test, and its development closely parallels the theory used to derive a similar test for the coefficients in linear models. In fact, the derivation proceeds by first setting up the estimation problem in a derived linear model in which the dispersion parameters are the coefficients. The test statistic is shown to be the sum of the squares of independent standardized x² variables.     

A New Goodness-of-Fit Test Based on the Laplace Statistic for a Large Class of NHPP Models

ABSTRACT

Nonhomogeneous Poisson processes (NHPP) provide many models for hardware and software reliability analysis. In order to get an appropriate NHPP model, goodness-of-Fit (GOF for short) tests have to be carried out. For the power-law processes, lots of GOF tests have been developed. For other NHPP models, only the Conditional Probability Integral Transformation (CPIT) test has been proposed. However, the CPIT test is less powerful and cannot be applied to some NHPP models. This article proposes a general GOF test based on the Laplace statistic for a large class of NHPP models with intensity functions of the form αλ(t, β). The simulation results show that this test is more powerful than CPIT test.     

Modelling udder infection data using copula models for quadruples

We study copula models for correlated infection times in the four udder quarters of dairy cows. Both a semi-parametric and a nonparametric approach are considered to estimate the marginal survival functions, taking into account the effect of a binary udder quarter level covariate. We use a two-stage estimation approach and we briefly discuss the asymptotic behaviour of the estimators obtained in the first and the second stage of the estimation. A pseudo-likelihood ratio test is used to select an appropriate copula from the power variance copula family that describes the association between the outcomes in a cluster. We propose a new bootstrap algorithm to obtain the p-value for this test. This bootstrap algorithm also provides estimates for the standard errors of the estimated parameters in the copula. The proposed methods are applied to the udder infection data. A small simulation study for a setting similar to the setting of the udder infection data gives evidence that the proposed method provides a valid approach to select an appropriate copula within the power variance copula family.     

Improved minimax estimation of a normal precision matrix

Let S_{p × p} have a Wishart distribution with parameter matrix Σ and n degrees of freedom. We consider here the problem of estimating the precision matrix Σ^?1 under the loss functions L₁(σ) tr (σ) - log |σ| and L₂(σ) = tr (σ). James-Stein-type estimators have been derived for an arbitrary p. We also obtain an orthogonal invariant and a diagonal invariant minimax estimator under both loss functions. A Monte-Carlo simulation study indicates that the risk improvement of the orthogonal invariant estimators over the James-Stein type estimators, the Haff (1979) estimator, and the “testimator” given by Sinha and Ghosh (1987) is substantial.     

Nonnull asymptotic distributions of the LR,Wald, score and gradient statistics in generalized linear models with dispersion covariates

The class of generalized linear models with dispersion covariates, which allows us to jointly model the mean and dispersion parameters, is a natural extension to the classical generalized linear models. In this paper, we derive the asymptotic expansions under a sequence of Pitman alternatives (up to order n ^?1/2) for the nonnull distribution functions of the likelihood ratio, Wald, Rao score and gradient statistics in this class of models. The asymptotic distributions of these statistics are obtained for testing a subset of regression parameters and for testing a subset of dispersion parameters. Based on these nonnull asymptotic expansions, the power of all four tests, which are equivalent to first order, are compared. Furthermore, we consider Monte Carlo simulations in order to compare the finite-sample performance of these tests in this class of models. We present two empirical applications to two real data sets for illustrative purposes.     

A Partially Linear Model with Its Applications

The nonparametric component in a partially linear model is approximated via cubic B-splines with a second-order difference penalty on the adjacent B-spline coefficients to avoid undersmoothing. A Wald-type spline-based test statistic is constructed for the null hypothesis of no effect of a continuous covariate. When the number of knots is fixed, the limiting null distribution of the test statistic is the distribution of a linear combination of independent chi-squared random variables, each with one degree of freedom. A real-life dataset is provided to illustrate the practical use of the test statistic.     

Double filter instrumental variable estimation of panel data models with weakly exogenous variables

In this article, we propose instrumental variables (IV) and generalized method of moments (GMM) estimators for panel data models with weakly exogenous variables. The model is allowed to include heterogeneous time trends besides the standard fixed effects (FE). The proposed IV and GMM estimators are obtained by applying a forward filter to the model and a backward filter to the instruments in order to remove FE, thereby called the double filter IV and GMM estimators. We derive the asymptotic properties of the proposed estimators under fixed T and large N, and large T and large N asymptotics where N and T denote the dimensions of cross section and time series, respectively. It is shown that the proposed IV estimator has the same asymptotic distribution as the bias corrected FE estimator when both N and T are large. Monte Carlo simulation results reveal that the proposed estimator performs well in finite samples and outperforms the conventional IV/GMM estimators using instruments in levels in many cases.     

A Fast Iterated Bootstrap Procedure for Approximating the Small-Sample Bias

This article proposes a fast approximation for the small sample bias correction of the iterated bootstrap. The approximation adapts existing fast approximation techniques of the bootstrap p-value and quantile functions to the problem of estimating the bias function. We show an optimality result which holds under general conditions not requiring an asymptotic pivot. Monte Carlo evidence, from the linear instrumental variable model and the nonlinear GMM, suggest that in addition to its computational appeal and success in reducing the mean and median bias in identified models, the fast approximation provides scope for bias reduction in weakly identified configurations.     

Approximate confidence interval construction for risk difference under inverse sampling

For studies with dichotomous outcomes, inverse sampling (also known as negative binomial sampling) is often used when the subjects arrive sequentially, when the underlying response of interest is acute, and/or when the maximum likelihood estimators of some epidemiologic indices are undefined. Although exact unconditional inference has been shown to be appealing, its applicability and popularity is severely hindered by the notorious conservativeness due to the adoption of the maximization principle and by the tedious computing time due to the involvement of infinite summation. In this article, we demonstrate how these obstacles can be overcome by the application of the constrained maximum likelihood estimation and truncated approximation. The present work is motivated by confidence interval construction for the risk difference under inverse sampling. Wald-type and score-type confidence intervals based on inverting two one-sided and one two-sided tests are considered. Monte Carlo simulations are conducted to evaluate the performance of these confidence intervals with respect to empirical coverage probability, empirical confidence width, and empirical left and right non-coverage probabilities. Two examples from a maternal congenital heart disease study and a drug comparison study are used to demonstrate the proposed methodologies.     

Score Tests for Zero-Inflation in Overdispersed Count Data

The negative binomial (NB) model and the generalized Poisson (GP) model are common alternatives to Poisson models when overdispersion is present in the data. Having accounted for initial overdispersion, we may require further investigation as to whether there is evidence for zero-inflation in the data. Two score statistics are derived from the GP model for testing zero-inflation. These statistics, unlike Wald-type test statistics, do not require that we fit the more complex zero-inflated overdispersed models to evaluate zero-inflation. A simulation study illustrates that the developed score statistics reasonably follow a χ² distribution and maintain the nominal level. Extensive simulation results also indicate the power behavior is different for including a continuous variable than a binary variable in the zero-inflation (ZI) part of the model. These differences are the basis from which suggestions are provided for real data analysis. Two practical examples are presented in this article. Results from these examples along with practical experience lead us to suggest performing the developed score test before fitting a zero-inflated NB model to the data.