和谐社会建构中的气象灾害管理探析

气象灾害对社会的影响极大,在和谐社会建构过程中,气象灾害管理是重要任务之一,也是实现人与自然和谐相处的主要指标之一。气象灾害不仅影响个体（身心）和谐,产生心理和生理方面的恶性循环,造成极大的心理创伤;还会影响社会整体（群体）和谐,严重威胁人民群众的生命和财产安全,引起社会恐慌,瓦解社会正常的秩序与运转机制。和谐社会建构中的气象灾害管理,要在反思目前的思维方式与发展理念的基础上,加强气象灾害法规建设,提高民众的投保意识,提高公众的灾害意识,倡导公众的广泛参与,建立强有力的研究团队,科学制定灾害预防措施,并重视灾后心理干预工作。     

Planning for natural disasters in a stochastic world

We examine the risks and management of natural disasters. A benefit-cost framework focuses attention on (1) designing control structures, such as dams and levees, and mitigation policies, such as construction standards, to protect lives and property against small and medium, rather than large sized natural disasters; and (2) warning and evacuation to save lives for large natural disasters. Providing information rather than command solutions generally enhances social benefits, if people understand the risks and bear the expected costs. Requiring actuarially fair insurance simultaneously provides information and has individuals bear the expected costs.     

The catastrophic effects of natural disasters on insurance markets

Natural disasters often have catastrophic risks on insurance companies as well as on the insured. Using a very large dataset on homeowners’ insurance coverage by state, by firm, and by year for the 1984 to 2004 period, this paper documents the positive effect on losses and loss ratios of both unexpected catastrophes as well as large events that the authors term “blockbuster catastrophes.” Insurers adapt to these catastrophic risks by raising insurance rates, leading to lower loss ratios after the catastrophic event. There is a widespread event of unexpected catastrophes and blockbuster catastrophes that reduces total premiums earned in the state, reduces the total number writing insurance coverage in the state, and leads to the exit of firms from the state. Firms with low levels of homeowners’ premiums are most adversely affected by the catastrophes.     

Mothers of adolescent girls 1

Abstract

It is increasingly difficult to distinguish natural events from those influenced by human actions. Furthermore, researchers in various fields have established that the level of devastation and the predicted likelihood of recovery of neighborhoods and communities correspond with the amount of political and socioeconomic capital held by neighborhoods and communities prior to disasters such as the Hurricane Katrina. In this paper we analyze the significance of the discourse of “natural disasters” through the framework of social ecology. We contest the neutralist discourse of “natural disasters” by underscoring the numerous interdependent sociopolitical forces, which shape the context in which disasters occur.     

The Hutubi Model: what have we learned?

Created to address some of the limitations in China's rural retirement insurance policy, the Hutubi Model represents an innovative approach to asset building. A key feature of the model, the Hutubi loan programme, operated in Hutubi County, Xinjiang, China, from 1998 to 2010. It allowed farmers in Hutubi to borrow against their rural retirement accounts, taking loans for investment in farming and other priorities. This study examines the institutional incentives and structures that enabled the programme to help farmers build assets. We also discuss the programme's implications for the development of asset-based social policy in rural China and consider recent policy developments there. Among these is a new rural retirement social insurance programme.     

Insurance demand and social comparison: An experimental analysis

This paper analyzes whether social comparison can explain the low take-up of disaster insurance usually reported in field studies. We argue that risks in the case of disasters are highly correlated between subjects whereas risks for which high insurance take-up can be observed (e.g. extended warranties or cell phone insurance) are typically idiosyncratic. We set up a simple model with social reference points and show that in the presence of inequality aversion social comparison makes insurance indeed less attractive if risks are correlated. In addition we conducted a simple experiment which confirms these theoretical results. The average willingness to pay for insurance is significantly higher for idiosyncratic than for correlated risks.     

Opportunities and Challenges for Studying Disaster Survivors

Studying survivors of natural disasters and traumatic events provides a unique opportunity to address some of the important and difficult questions in psychology and other social sciences. However, such an opportunity does not come without challenges. Several methodological challenges to studying survivors of natural disasters are discussed, including recruiting participants, choosing appropriate procedures, and the safety of data collectors. Several ethical issues are also presented, such as the ability of participants to make decisions, the impact of participating, and the importance of informed consent. In addition, approaches are suggested that help to deal with these methodological and ethical challenges. We conclude that while attention must be focused on methodological and ethical considerations, research stemming from natural disasters should be employed to answer important basic and applied conceptual questions and address issues of practice and policy, while assuring that steps have been taken to protect participants and that the potential risks are minimal.     

唐代灾害奏报与监察制度略论

中国的灾害奏报与监察在经历了秦汉魏晋的发展之后,在唐代已经基本成熟,灾情的申报,官员的检覆、监察都已形成了固定的程序,在救灾中得到了执行,并收到一定的效果。但唐代的报灾制度中一直存在着救灾与中央财政控制之间的矛盾,唐政府一直在为提高受灾地方政府应对灾害的主动性和效率而努力。唐代的报灾与灾情监察制度为宋元明清救灾制度的进一步完善奠定了基础。     

Environmental Disasters and Disastrous Policies: An Overview from India

Though disasters have been important recurring events in South Asia, the policy framework for addressing the issues arising from disaster has been weak. Taking an alternative perspective on the definition of disaster itself, this article attempts to address the cause of the increasing numbers of disasters in India. I posit that the nation‐state still understands disasters as a natural phenomenon, rather than as an intersection between conditions of vulnerability and actual hazards. This is to be observed in the disaster policies adopted. Hence, this article emphasizes the inclusion of ‘vulnerability’ as paramount.     

The government, the market, and the problem of catastrophic loss

This article addresses the comparative advantage of the government to the private property/casualty insurance industry for the provision of insurance coverage for catastrophic losses. That the government can play an important role as an insurer of societal losses has been a central public policy principle since at least the New Deal. In addition, our government typically automatically provides forms of specific relief following unusually severe or unexpected disasters, which itself can be viewed as a form of ex post insurance. This article argues that, for systemic reasons, the government is much less effective than the private property/casualty insurance market in providing coverage of losses generally, but especially of losses in contexts of catastrophes.     

Adjusting to natural disasters

People adjust to the risks presented by natural disasters in a number of ways; they can move out of harms way, they can self protect, or they can insure. This paper uses Hurricane Andrew, the largest U.S. natural disaster prior to Katrina, to evaluate how people and housing markets respond to a large disaster. Our analysis combines a unique ex post database on the storm’s damage along with information from the 1990 and 2000 Censuses in Dade County, Florida where the storm hit. The results suggest that the economic capacity of households to adjust explains most of the differences in demographic groups’ patterns of adjustment to the hurricane damage. Low income households respond primarily by moving into low-rent housing in areas that experienced heavy damage. Middle income households move away to avoid risk, and the wealthy, for whom insurance and self-protection are most affordable, appear to remain. This pattern of adjustment with respect to income is roughly mean neutral, so an analysis based on measures of central tendency such as median income would miss these important adjustments.     

略论医疗保险政策的公平性选择

在现阶段经济转型时期,卫生事业的公平性是和谐社会建设的重要基础之一。而目前,我国医疗保险政策存在公平性缺失的问题,医疗保险政策的公平性选择就是建立强制性城乡一体化的医疗保险体制;在加大政府投入的同时,建立收支两条线的资金控制系统;建立医疗保险再分配机制和医疗救助体系。     

Transforming the Local Capacity on Natural Disaster Risk Reduction in Bangladeshi Communities: A Social Work Perspective

Bangladesh has been a severe victim of its various sporadic natural disasters—flood, cyclone and storm surge, flash flood, drought, tornado, riverbank erosion, and landslide. Familial and societal lives and security of people are being seriously disturbed by these natural calamities every year. They also bring deadly damage to the economy and general environment of the country. Natural disasters cannot be pre‐empted at all, but their damage can be mitigated with effective responses. Social work has been a profession notably known for its intervention of people's vulnerability to natural and man‐made disasters. This concept paper discusses relevant intervention strategies and approaches to transform the local capacity of communities on natural disaster risk reduction in light of the social work profession.     

西汉儒家生态思想研究

西汉儒家秉承先秦儒家“民本”、“农本”、“节用”、“尚礼”等思想,对生态保护而言,利大于弊。西汉儒家在自然资源的利用和生态保护方面,继承了先秦儒家“用之有度,取之有时”的思想,在注意到开发资源可能导致生态灾难、生态系统服务功能的选择和对生态系统中其他生物的感恩等方面,对前人有所超越。西汉盛行的“灾异说”把生态灾异政治化,成为政治斗争的工具,误导了人们对生态灾异真正原因的探求,影响了生态科学的发展。     

浅析清至民国陕西雹灾的发生特点

清至民国的306年是陕西地区农业自然灾害频繁发生的一个时期,其中雹灾是危害较为严重的灾害之一。根据对相关材料的统计和分析,可以发现,从发生的时间来看,雹灾呈现出频繁性、季节性、周期性、增长性的特点;从影响的范围和程度来看,雹灾具有局部性、严重性的特点;从发生的空间来看,雹灾呈现出地域性的显著特点。     

The complex politics of catastrophe economics

The purpose of this essay is to explore the implications for public policy of the assumption that policy makers exhibit the same cognitive and perceptual problems as other citizens regarding catastrophic events. The key conclusion is that the same factors that cause citizens to behave inefficiently in preparing for and responding to disasters also will cause inefficiencies in policies concerning catastrophic events. Among the more important expected pathologies of disaster policies are: (1) a failure to balance benefits and costs at the margin for different types of disasters, due to cognitive pathologies such as availability and overconfidence; (2) a tendency for policy to underinvest in protection and overinvest in response; and (3) a skepticism for policies based on sound insurance principles for spreading costs and assessing claims.     

广西农业保险巨灾损失分摊机制探讨

在分析建立广西农业保险巨灾损失分摊机制必要性和紧迫性的基础上，从建立起实质上的“二元化”的农业保险体系、构建同业分层保险制度、建立农业巨灾再保险体系和设立农业巨灾风险保障基金等角度探讨了广西农业保险巨灾损失分摊机制。     

Replacement Cost Endorsement and Opportunistic Fraud in Automobile Insurance

Traditional insurance contracts do not offer protection against the replacement value of a vehicle. A replacement cost endorsement gives the opportunity to get a new vehicle in the case of a total theft or in the case of total destruction of the car in a road accident. This type of protection was introduced in Canada in the late 1980's. It is also offered in France and many insurers in the United States are going to move in that direction. We propose tests that separate moral hazard from adverse selection in the analysis of the effect of this additional protection on car theft. We show that holders of car insurance policies with a replacement cost endorsement have a higher probability of theft near the end of this additional protection (usually 24 months following the acquisition of a new car). Our tests indicate that this result is a form of ex post moral hazard or opportunistic insurance fraud.     

试析保险欺诈及其防范

保险欺诈的实施主体一般是投保人,但实际上保险人也能成为保险欺诈的主体,且危害尤甚,必须从投保方和保险方两方面来研究和防范保险欺诈。     

Resilience? Contested meanings and experiences in post-disaster Christchurch,New Zealand

The purpose of this paper is to improve understanding of the relationship between sense of place and community resilience, two concepts described and defined differently reflecting different disciplinary research, policies and practices. We draw on international literature that has focused on the interrelationship between these concepts in the context of natural disasters, as well as the findings of a multidisciplinary project in the post-earthquake Christchurch recovery context. We describe how we developed indicators of resilience linked to sense of place as it relates to home, neighbourhood and the city, including place-based social interaction and the role of scientific and technical information. Through integrating literature with the findings from project interviews and a survey, we offer new ways of considering ‘resilience’ and we discuss the implications of our findings for not just the Christchurch recovery, but for future response and recovery to natural disasters throughout New Zealand.