Introduction: social policy and economic development in late industrializers

This Supplement in the International Journal of Social Welfare presents the main findings of a United Nations Research Institute for Social Development research project on social policy in late industrializers, covering countries in East Asia, Latin America, Middle East and North Africa (MENA), and sub-Saharan Africa, as well as the Nordic countries. One of the findings from the research is that social policy has been used as an integral part of economic development in successful late-industrializing countries. In the MENA region and sub-Saharan Africa, however, social policy was tried for too short a period to be properly implemented and tested. East Asian and Latin American countries started with a narrow-based social policy, but social policy in East Asia was extended to foster social solidarity, bringing people into the mainstream of social change. Such findings suggest that social policy is multifunctional, not only in terms of social protection but also economic development and democratic governance.     

Liberalization,crisis and growth in MENA region: Do institutions matter?

The main purpose of this study is to investigate the interaction between financial liberalization, banking crisis and economic growth by taking into consideration the role of institutions. Our sample covers 15 Middle East and North African observed during the period 2000–2013. Using a dynamic panel data framework, our findings reveal that financial liberalization contributed to improve economic growth in MENA countries while banking crisis had harmful effects on MENA economies. The quality of institutions did not have a clear impact except for rule and order and democratic institution. These results have important policy implications. To grow output and avoid the occurrence of banking crisis, MENA countries should reinforce their institutions quality by adopting good practice of governance and regulation.     

Nonparametric modelling of biodiversity: Determinants of threatened species

This study uses a sample of 71 countries and nonparametric quantile and partial regressions to model a number of threatened species (reptiles, mammals, fish, birds, trees, plants) in relation to various economic and environmental variables (GDPc, CO₂ emissions, agricultural production, energy intensity, protected areas, population and income inequality). From the analysis and due to high asymmetric distribution of the dependent variables it seems that a linear regression is not adequate and cannot capture properly the dimension of the threatened species. We find that using OLS instead of non-parametric techniques over- or under-estimates the parameters which may have serious policy implications.     

The relationship among CO2 emissions,electricity power consumption and GDP in OECD countries

This paper proposes a panel vector error correction model investigation of a quadratic relationship linking CO₂ emissions, GDP levels and electric power consumption. We find that two independent long-run relationships emerge from the data. Since the null of homogeneity across units with regard to long-run elasticities is strongly rejected, we proceed by clustering countries according to the signs of the estimated coefficients. The approach allows us to form three groups: in the first there is evidence of an optimistic scenario, where both CO₂ emissions and electric power consumption are bound to decrease in the long-run. An optimistic scenario for emissions reduction is also provided in the second cluster where, however, the long-run relationship between income and electric power consumption shows an U-shaped pattern, instead. Finally, the third cluster can be associated with a much worrying scenario where per capita CO₂ is expected to grow with income. A joint consideration of long-run parameters and causality links allows us to propose cluster-tailored policy suggestions.     

The Effects of Participation and Resources on Democratic Attitudes: Role of Social Capital in Four Latin and South American Countries

ABSTRACT

Social capital research in Latin and South American countries has been gravely limited by the absence of valid measures of social capital. This study seeks to create a scale for measuring social capital in the Latin and South American context using exploratory and confirmatory statistical procedures. It also seeks to test the effect of social capital on democratic attitudes in Latin America through structural equation modeling methods. Analysis of four countries in Latin and South America suggests that social capital is positively related to democratic attitudes. Recommendations for future studies are highlighted, and scale properties and outcomes are discussed.     

Do political instability,financial instability and environmental degradation undermine growth? Evidence from belt and road initiative countries

This study investigates the extent to which political instability (PI), financial instability (FI), and environmental degradation undermine economic complexity (EC). EC is more predictive of future growth and development patterns and correlates with the increased ability to create and export a wide variety of sophisticated (high productivity) items. Using data from up to 56 BRI nations, I routinely obtain precise estimates of the negative effect of PI and FI on EC. Further, we examined the indirect effect of PI and FI through the channel of human capital (HC). These findings confirm the core premise that institutional stability largely influences economic complexity by encouraging creative entrepreneurship, HC accumulation, and allocating human resources to productive activities. Moreover, we examined the indirect effect of PI and FI through the channel of CO₂ emissions. These findings support the idea that countries with stable institutions can reduce pollution and protect the environment. It could increase economic complexity while reducing environmental degradation. The main findings support the creation of a pro-development institutional framework that enhance environmental sustainability and reduces poverty by increasing economic complexity.     

The impact of the EU sugar trade reform on poor households in developing countries: A general equilibrium analysis

We use a modified version of the applied general equilibrium model GTAP, called GTAP_MH, to evaluate the impact of a reduction in the EU's support price for sugar on income distribution of African households. For LDC countries, non-ACP but participant in the EBA initiative a +2% change is indicated in term of income generation across all ten social strata identified within GTAP_MH framework, with positive percentage changes in supply prices at household level of endowment commodities, and positive percentage changes in price indices for private household expenditures. The big losers will be those countries that would no longer be able to compete at an international level as a result of the lost preferences.     

Do greater amounts of FDI cause higher pollution levels? Evidence from OECD countries

Using an ARDL model for a panel of 15 OECD countries, this work analyses the impact that FDI, both jointly and by sector, has on CO₂ emissions. The findings reveal that these countries are yielding to the pressure on the trade sector. Unexpectedly, gross fixed capital formation shrink pollution, excluding in the mining sector. With findings supporting the Pollution Haven Hypothesis, policymakers must pay attention to FDI inflows, ensuring that FDI place high importance on the transfer of green technologies to improve the efficiency. These goals could be achieved through an increase in the stringency of environmental laws within the host countries, especially the ones related to FDI.     

Deforestation and the Environmental Kuznets Curve: A Cross-National Investigation of Intervening Mechanisms

Objective . We draw on ecological modernization theory and international political economy arguments to examine the sources of an environmental Kuznets curve (or EKC) that produces an inverted U-shaped rate of deforestation relative to economic development. Method . We use ordinary least squares regression with White's (1978) correction for possible heteroskedasticity to examine the rate of deforestation (1980–1995) in less developed countries. Results . Net of controls for initial forest stock and the quality of deforestation estimates, we find strong evidence for an EKC driven by (1) agglomeration effects linked to the level of urbanization, (2) rural-to-urban migration that partially offsets rural population pressure, (3) the growth of services-dominated urban economies, and (4) strong democratic states. We find little evidence that foreign debt or export dependence influence the deforestation rate. Conclusions . Although deforestation continues to pose pressing and potentially irreversible environmental risks, there is evidence of self-corrective ecological and modernization processes inherent in development that act to mitigate these risks.     

FDI,democracy and corruption in Sub-Saharan Africa

This paper investigates the relationship between FDI, democracy and corruption among 30 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) over the period of 1985–2014 to determine whether the ‘helping hand’ or ‘grabbing hand’ hypothesis is most applicable. The results of GMM analysis show that corruption is used by FDI investors to overcome the region’s weak democratic regulatory and institutional status and thus the ‘helping hand’ is more prevalent. However, the results further show that as democratic capital accumulates, this association may outlive its usefulness and thus corruption as a ‘helping hand’ in time becomes a ‘grabbing hand’ instead. These results imply that SSA countries should focus on integrating into the international economy so as to take advantage of existing financial enforcement legislation while reconstructing and strengthening domestic constitutional anti-corruption legislation and institutions.     

社区建设的形式化问题与对策分析——以山东省滨州市的社区建设为例

推行社区建设有利于社会的和谐发展,我国早在1990年代就大力推行社区建设,并在一定程度上改善了社区的环境卫生、社区安全等问题。但是,社区在进一步的发展中却遇到了制度性的瓶颈问题。改革的具体策略是在新形势下要充分相信民众的能力,形成民主选举氛围,使民众自觉融入到社区建设中去。只有这样,校地合作才能建立一种真正意义上的合作关系。     

Vyāghranomics in space and time: Estimating habitat threats for Bengal,Indochinese, Malayan and Sumatran tigers

The wild tiger population in tropical Asia has dropped from about 100,000 to 3500 in the last century, and the need to conserve tiger habitats poses a challenge for the Global Tiger Recovery Program. This paper develops and uses a high-resolution monthly forest clearing database for 74 tiger habitat areas in ten countries to investigate habitat threats for Bengal, Indochinese, Malayan and Sumatran tigers. The econometric model links forest habitat loss and forest clearing to profitability calculations that are affected by market expectations, environmental conditions and evolving patterns of settlement, among others. It uses new spatial panel estimation methods that allow for temporal and spatial autocorrelation. The econometric results emphasize the role of short-run market variables, including the exchange rate, real interest rate and prices of agricultural products in forest clearing, with considerable variation in the estimated timing for response and impact elasticities across countries. The results highlight a critical message for the conservation policy community: Changes in world agricultural-product markets and national financial policies have significant, measurable effects on tropical forest clearing, with variable time lags and degrees of responsiveness across countries. Measuring these effects and pinpointing areas at risk can provide valuable guidance for policymakers, conservation managers, and donor institutions.     

Changing Welfare Regimes in East and Southeast Asia: Crisis, Change and Challenge

The Asia‐Pacific region is a latecomer to the development of the welfare state. However, in some countries, governments have implemented ambitious programmes to extend social security systems and to enlarge the institutional structure of their welfare states. Comparative study of the welfare systems in East and Southeast Asia is, however, underdeveloped and there still is a relative lack of accurate knowledge about welfare systems in the region. Since the Asian financial crisis, more attention has been paid to the social policies of the countries. This paper examines features of welfare regimes in Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan and Thailand, and undertakes a systematic review of the development, levels and patterns of welfare regimes in the region. Two core questions are answered: can the existing welfare systems help mitigate the social impact of the financial and economic crisis? What are the needs, challenges and developmental perspectives that inform the future of welfare regimes in this region?     

Environmental Attitudes in International Comparison: An Analysis of the ISSP Surveys 1993 and 2000*

Objective. The goal of this article is to compare the concern for the natural environment between the citizens of 26 countries that participated in the 2000 International Social Survey Program (ISSP) and to explain the differences. Prior studies (e.g., Dunlap, Gallup, and Gallup, 1993; Brechin, 1999 ) suggest that the increase of environmental concern is a global phenomenon. However, Inglehart (1995) , as well as Diekmann and Franzen (1999) , argue that the level of environmental concern and knowledge is highly correlated with GNP per capita. Method. The article analyzes new evidence obtained from the ISSP 2000 and compares it to the prior findings based on the ISSP 1993. Results. It is shown that citizens in wealthier nations express greater concern for the global condition of the environment than those in poorer countries. Conclusion. The new analysis of the ISSP 2000 confirms our original notion that support for global environmental protection is strongly correlated with wealth. However, the increase in real GDP between 1993 and 2000 did not lead to a further increase in environmental concern.     

Legal families and environmental protection: Is there a causal relationship?

In this paper we build on the analysis of La Porta et al. [La Porta, R., Lopez-de-Silanes, F., Shleifer, A., & Vishny, R. W. (1998). Law and finance. Journal of Political Economy, 106(6), 1113–1155], to investigate the importance of legal families in explaining the dissimilar levels of environmental quality indicators among countries with different legal systems. The main intuition behind our analysis is that the nations in which the rights of shareholders are more protected promote real and financial investment; this increases the speed at which the per capita income corresponding to the declining branch of the Environmental Kutznets Curve (EKC) is achieved. In econometrics different regressions analyses were performed, using as dependent variables three different kinds of pollutants (CO₂, fine suspended particulates and waste), and including as an explanation some financial variables never before considered in this kind of study.     

Bringing social policy back in: a look at the Middle East and North Africa

This article examines the evolution of social policy in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) during three periods: the post-colonial and oil-boom period, the post-oil period of structural adjustment, and the more recent oil-boom period. Drawing attention to key factors that shaped both social policy and the region's lack of competitiveness during the current global era, the authors argue for a new social development strategy that would put the region back on a growth path, while also recognizing citizen participation and rights.     

Growth impact of climate change and response policies: The advanced climate change long-term (ACCL) model

This paper provides a tool to build climate change scenarios to forecast Gross Domestic Product (GDP), modelling both GDP damage due to climate change and the GDP impact of mitigating measures. It adopts a supply-side, long-term view, with 2060 and 2100 horizons. It is a global projection tool (30 countries/regions), with assumptions and results both at the world and the country/regional level. Five different types of energy inputs are taken into account according to their CO₂ emission factors. Full calibration is possible at each stage, with estimated or literature-based default parameters. Compared to other models, it provides a comprehensive modelisation of Total Factor Productivity (TFP), which is the most significant determinant of the GDP projected path. We present simulation results of different energy policy scenarios. They illustrate both the “tragedy of the horizon” and the “tragedy of the commons”, which call for a policy framework that adequately integrates a long run perspective, through a low-enough discount rate and an effective intergenerational solidarity as well as international cooperation.     

Does country-risk influence electricity production worldwide?

This paper investigates the relationship between country-risks (or conflicts) within countries and electricity production. The determinants of electricity production have been neglected in the literature that favours the relationship between energy consumption, growth and development, and despite of the major challenges on electricity supply systems. We empirically establish that weighted conflict index, as well as sub-items as anti-government demonstrations, government crises and riots negatively influence electricity production per capita, after controlling for income per capita. Country conflicts affect electricity production mostly in the long-run. Our results imply that conflicts may affect electricity production substantially and consequently the economy as a whole. Policy should emphasize the institutional framework to avoid conflicts within countries in order to secure electricity production.     

Does Environmental Degradation Influence Migration? Emigration to Developed Countries in the Late 1980s and 1990s*

Objective. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predicts that climate change will intensify during the 21st century. The exact distribution of impacts will likely be complex in nature. Although some areas may exhibit benefits, many areas will likely experience environmental decline. The objective of this article is to answer the following question: What are the potential implications of deteriorating environmental conditions for human migration? This is not an easy question to answer because the full effects of climate change are not yet completely evident. Yet by studying the impact of environmental forces on migration in recent decades, we can offer some insight to this question. Methods. In implementing this approach, we employ theoretical and empirical methods. Our theoretical model suggests that environmental degradation should promote out‐migration from affected areas, all other things being equal. To test this prediction empirically, we conduct a large‐N statistical analysis focusing on the role of several environmental factors in emigration to developed countries. Our empirical sample covers the late 1980s and the 1990s. Results. The empirical results suggest that environmental decline plays a statistically significant role in out‐migration, pushing people to leave their homes and move to other countries. Conclusions. In the conclusions section of this article, we evaluate the policy implications of these findings for developed countries in the context of climate change and national security.     

Criticism of the Logic of the Ecological Imperialism of “Carbon Politics” and Its Transcendence

Within the framework of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Kyoto Protocol, international carbon politics inevitably presents itself as the logic or essence of “ecological imperialism,” reflecting a few Western countries’ expansion and development of their historically formed international hierarchical superiority or exclusive hegemony on the basis of their domestic capitalist economies and politics. This is an intrinsic obstacle to creating a more equitable, democratic and effective global climate or environmental governance system. Criticism of international carbon politics and its “ecological imperialism,” based on traditional “green-left” theories from Marxist philosophy and political economy, provides a theoretical basis for seeking an alternative way to cope with global climate change effectively. As a responsible developing country, China’s response to climate change is not only an internal requirement for the promotion of its own sustainable development, but also reflects its responsibility to create a community of shared future for mankind. This rationale for our time determines that it is necessary for China to become a world leader in coping with global climate change and environmental governance through a leadership which lies in making a contribution rather than fighting for hegemony.