THE LONG‐TERM EFFECTS OF CONDITIONAL CASH TRANSFERS ON CHILD LABOR AND SCHOOL ENROLLMENT

This paper investigates the long‐term effects of conditional cash transfers on school attainment and child labor. To this end, we construct a dynamic heterogeneous agent model, calibrate it with Brazilian data, and introduce a policy similar to the Brazilian Bolsa Família. Our results suggest that this type of policy has a very strong impact on educational outcomes, sharply increasing primary school completion. The conditional transfer is also able to reduce the share of working children from 22% to 17%. We then compute the transition to the new steady state and show that the program actually increases child labor over the short run, because the transfer is not enough to completely cover the schooling costs, so children have to work to be able to comply with the program's schooling eligibility requirement. We also evaluate the impacts on poverty, inequality, and welfare. (JEL O11, I25, J24)     

The More Things Change,the More They Remain the Same?

Since the publication of Arlie Hochschild’s groundbreaking work, The Second Shift (1989), scholars have delineated and deliberated the predictors and implications of American men’s participation in unpaid labor. Still, there’s little consensus about the current or future state of gender inequality in US households. In the course of reviewing scholarship published on this topic over the last two decades, this piece outlines and critically reflects upon two paradoxical conclusions one might reach when examining trends in men’s housework and care work time. In comparing and contrasting what I call ‘the mop bucket is half full’ and ‘the mop bucket is half empty’ conclusions, I also highlight the major theoretical frameworks, empirical findings, and diverging opinions on whether Hochschild’s ‘household revolution’ is permanently stalled, slowly reigniting, or ready to take off. I then conclude with a call for consensus among scholars and suggestions for future research on men’s participation in unpaid labor.     

Incomplete property rights, redistribution, and welfare

In a world where the private protection of property is costly, government redistribution can lead to an increase in aggregate output. This result is not new. The novelty of this paper lies in specifying the conditions under which this efficiency-enhancing redistribution improves everyone’s welfare including the welfare of those whose labor finances the redistributive program (i.e., the rich) and how this is affected by the protection of property rights. The state may directly enhance economic rights through investments in security and the protection of property or it may indirectly do so through the redistribution of income. Under certain conditions, redistribution becomes desirable in situations where the state has exhausted its ability to enhance efficiency through the direct enforcement of property rights. In this case, redistribution can make all members of a society better off. Specifically, this occurs when the cost of predation is sufficiently low and the technology of private protection of property rights is sufficiently weak. The adverse effects of redistribution may be the consequence but not the cause of state failure. The real cause is a corrupt and inept state. My thanks are due to an anonymous referee and Zane Spindler for very helpful and critical comments. I thank SSHRC for financial support     

Reshaping the social contract: emerging relations between the state and informal labor in India

As states grapple with the forces of liberalization and globalization, they are increasingly pulling back on earlier levels of welfare provision and rhetoric. This article examines how the eclipsing role of the state in labor protection has affected state–labor relations. In particular, it analyzes collective action strategies among India’s growing mass of informally employed workers, who do not receive secure wages or benefits from either the state or their employer. In response to the recent changes in state policies, I find that informal workers have had to alter their organizing strategies in ways that are reshaping the social contract between state and labor. Rather than demanding employers for workers’ benefits, they are making direct demands on the state for welfare benefits. To attain state attention, informal workers are using the rhetoric of citizenship rights to offer their unregulated labor and political support in return for state recognition of their work. Such recognition bestows informal workers with a degree of social legitimacy, thereby dignifying their discontent and bolstering their status as claim makers in their society. These findings offer a reformulated model of state–labor relations that focuses attention on the qualitative, rather than quantitative, nature of the nexus; encompasses a dynamic and inter-dependent conceptualization of state and labor; and accommodates the creative and diverse strategies of industrial relations being forged in the contemporary era.

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THE TIMING OF EXEMPTIONS FROM WELFARE WORK REQUIREMENTS AND ITS EFFECTS ON MOTHERS' WORK AND WELFARE RECEIPT AROUND CHILDBIRTH

I quantify the effects of welfare work exemptions on women's labor force participation and welfare receipt. This study, which also examines the age of youngest child (AYC) exemption, is the first to investigate the pregnancy exemption. Between‐state and within‐state variations in exemption length allow me to estimate the heterogeneous effects of each exemption by its timing and strictness. I find that the effects on labor force participation are driven by employment for the pregnancy exemption, inducing relatively stable welfare receipts. In contrast, the effects are driven by unemployment for the AYC exemption, which triggers more reliance on welfare after birth. (JEL I38)     

JOBLESS RECOVERIES: STAGNATION OR STRUCTURAL CHANGE?

Within the existing literature a number of competing explanations for jobless recoveries have emerged. On the one hand there is evidence of dynamic structural change including offshoring/globalization and technological advances that are resulting in the loss of middle‐skill (routine) employment. Other studies emphasize a less dynamic economy with slower growth, reduced labor market fluidity, a decline in startup activity, and even economic stagnation. This study exploits variation among U.S. states to assess the degree that stagnation and/or important structural changes in the economy contribute to the recent phenomenon of jobless recoveries. We find support for both the stagnation and structural change theories of jobless recoveries. On the stagnation side, we find evidence that lower startup rates are a significant predictor of jobless recoveries. We also find evidence that links dynamic structural change to the jobless recovery phenomenon. More specifically states experiencing a long‐run downward trend in the share of routine employment are more likely to experience a jobless recovery. Our results are consistent with the polarization theory where routine‐replacing technological advances permanently reduce demand for middle‐skill labor, thus contributing to jobless recoveries. (JEL E32, E24)     

OFFSHORE OUTSOURCING DECISION AND CAPITAL INTENSITY: FIRM‐LEVEL RELATIONSHIPS

In offshore sourcing, a firm chooses outsourcing to independent suppliers or in‐sourcing from own foreign direct investment (FDI) subsidiaries. Based on the firm‐level data on offshore make‐or‐buy decision covering all manufacturing industries, this paper compares averages, documents inter‐firm distributions, and estimates multinomial logit models of the firm's sourcing mode choice. As predicted by previous theoretical models, this paper directly confirms at the firm level that outsourcing firms tend to be substantially labor‐intensive compared with firms in‐sourcing from the same region, even after the firm's R&D intensity, firm size, or industry is controlled for. (JEL F23, L23, L24, L14)     

Jacob Mincer and Labor Supply–Before and Aftermath

This paper discusses the impact that Jacob Mincer's 1962 paper Labor-Force Participation of Married Women... had on the analysis and empirical estimation of the labor supply of married women, and the supply of labor in general. It is argued that this paper has revolutionized the analysis of labor supply. The sharp increase in married women's labor supply still constitutes a challenge to labor economists who try to explain the phenomenon in terms of income and price effects derived from cross-section studies. It constituted a puzzle to labor economists in the 1950s and 1960s, still captives of the notion of a backwards-bending supply of labor. Mincer combined a theoretical model distinguishing between three uses of time (leisure, work at home, and work in the market) and Friedman's distinction between permanent and transitory earning. He showed that the wage has a positive effect on married women's labor supply, and that this supply is more affected by transitory than by permanent income changes. The new theory serves as the scaffold on which Mincer builds the empirical estimation. The interplay between theory, data, and empirical estimation, and the ingenuity of the empirical research using scant data sources, made this paper the object of emulation. The ideas first discussed in this paper generated many of the developments in the analysis of labor supply witnessed over the last four decades.     

Father's Migration and Leaving the Parental Home in Rural Mozambique

Migration is an increasingly common global phenomenon and has important implications for the well‐being of family members left behind. Although extensive research has examined the impact of parental labor migration on school‐age children, less is known about its effect on adolescents. In this study, the authors used longitudinal survey data collected in rural Mozambique (N = 515) to assess the association between father's migration and adolescent children's leaving the parental home, an important component of the transition to adulthood. The results showed that father's migration delays home‐leaving for adolescent girls and that these effects are not mediated by school enrollment. The results for boys were inconclusive. The authors also found that remittances and longer durations of paternal migration were negatively associated with the transition out of the home. On the basis of the findings, they argue that father's migration delays girls' marriage.     

Germany's Anti-Foreigner Crisis: State Disunity and Collective 'Forgetting'

Abstract: Employment of foreign labor in Germany is generally perceived as a recent phenomenon; Germany's pre-war experiences with foreign labor do not figure prominently in public discussion. This article analyzes the active omission of this aspect of the past as an important feature of German social memory. Drawing largely on Ulrich Herbert's research, the forgotten' history of pre- and post-war experiences with foreign labor is summarized. This provides a perspective on the significant parallels between conflicts today and those of prior periods and exposes a fundamental conflict within the state regarding the use of foreign labor. Anti-foreigner violence is reinterpreted as representing a failure of the state to maintain ideological unity without periodically responding to powerful and enduring anti-foreigner pressure.     

FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT AND COUNTRY‐SPECIFIC HUMAN CAPITAL

This paper exploits an international bilateral data set over the period 1963–1998 to investigate the relationship between foreign direct investment (FDI) and foreign‐educated labor in an FDI host country. Workers educated abroad acquire country‐specific human capital that is more productive in the host country of study. A foreign subsidiary sharing a parent firm's technology will invest more if it has more foreign‐educated labor, since it can utilize this labor more productively because of the country‐specific human capital. Consistent with our predictions, our empirical findings show that foreign‐educated labor accounted for a sizable portion of growth in FDI flows. (JEL F21, F10)     

LABOR CONTRACTS AND FLEXIBILITY: EVIDENCE FROM A LABOR MARKET REFORM IN SPAIN

This paper evaluates the effects of a labor market reform in Spain that removed restrictions on fixed‐term or temporary contracts. Our empirical results are based on longitudinal firm‐level data that cover observations before and after the reform. We posit and estimate a dynamic labor demand model with indefinite and fixed‐term labor contracts, and a general structure of labor adjustment costs. Experiments using the estimated model show important positive effects of the reform on total employment (i.e., a 3.5% increase) and job turnover. There is a strong substitution of permanent by temporary workers (i.e., a 10% decline in permanent employment). The effects on labor productivity and the value of firms are very small. In contrast, a counterfactual reform that halved all firing costs would produce the same employment increase as the actual reform, but much larger improvements in productivity and in the value of firms. (JEL J23, J32, J41)     

The governmentalities of neoliberalism: panopticism,post‐panopticism and beyond

This paper draws on the writings of Michel Foucault, in particular his lectures on biopolitics at the Collège de France from 1978–79, to examine liberalism and neoliberalism as governmental forms that operate through different models of surveillance. First, this paper re‐reads Foucault's Discipline and Punish in the light of his analysis of the art of liberal government that is advanced through the course of these lectures. It is argued that the Panopticon is not just an architecture of power centred on discipline and normalization, as is commonly understood, but a normative model of the relation of the state to the market which, for Foucault, is ‘the very formula of liberal government’. Second, the limits of panopticism, and by extension liberal governance, are explored through analysis of Gilles Deleuze's account of the shift from disciplinary to ‘control’ societies, and Zygmunt Bauman's writings on individualization and the ‘Synopticon’. In response to Deleuze and Bauman, the final section of this paper returns to Foucault's lectures on biopolitics to argue that contemporary capitalist society is characterized not simply by the decline of state powers (the control society) or the passing down of responsibilities from the state to the individual (the individualization thesis), but by the neoliberal marketization of the state and its institutions; a development which is underpinned by a specific form of governmentality. In conclusion, a four‐fold typology of surveillance is advanced: surveillance as discipline, as control, as interactivity, and as a mechanism for promoting competition. It is argued that while these types of surveillance are not mutually exclusive, they are underpinned by different governmentalities that can be used to address different aspects of the relationship between the state and the market, and with this the social and cultural logics of contemporary forms of market capitalism more broadly.     

Wives' Relative Wages,Husbands' Paid Work Hours,and Wives' Labor‐Force Exit

Economic theories predict that women are more likely to exit the labor force if their partners' earnings are higher and if their own wage rate is lower. In this article, I use the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (N = 2,254) and discrete‐time event‐history analysis to show that wives' relative wages are more predictive of their exit than are their own or their husbands' absolute wages. In addition, I show that women married to men who work more than 45 hours per week are more likely to exit the labor force than are wives whose husbands' work approximately 40 hours per week. My findings highlight the need to examine how women's partners affect women's labor‐force participation.     

The Motherhood Penalty at Midlife: Long‐Term Effects of Children on Women's Careers

The authors build on prior research on the motherhood wage penalty to examine whether the career penalties faced by mothers change over the life course. They broaden the focus beyond wages to also consider labor force participation and occupational status and use data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Young Women to model the changing impact of motherhood as women age from their 20s to their 50s (n = 4,730). They found that motherhood is “costly” to women's careers, but the effects on all 3 labor force outcomes attenuate at older ages. Children reduce women's labor force participation, but this effect is strongest when women are younger and is eliminated by the 40s and 50s. Mothers also seem able to regain ground in terms of occupational status. The wage penalty for having children varies by parity, persisting across the life course only for women who have 3 or more children.     

MATERNAL LABOR SUPPLY AND THE AVAILABILITY OF PUBLIC PRE‐K: EVIDENCE FROM THE INTRODUCTION OF PREKINDERGARTEN INTO AMERICAN PUBLIC SCHOOLS

In the 1980s and 1990s, many states and districts began to provide funding for prekindergarten (PK) programs for the first time. This paper takes advantage of the staggered timing in program funding to investigate the effect that increased availability of PK programs has on the labor supply of mothers with 4‐year‐olds. I find that mothers with a 4‐year‐old and no younger children were significantly more likely to be in the labor force and employed once PK became available. Mothers with a 4‐year‐old and other younger children were also significantly more likely to be in the labor force and employed. (JEL I20, J01, J20)     

INFLATION DYNAMICS AND LABOR MARKET SPECIFICATIONS: A BAYESIAN DYNAMIC STOCHASTIC GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM APPROACH FOR JAPAN'S ECONOMY

Which labor market specification is better able to describe inflation dynamics, a widely used sticky wage model or a recently investigated labor market search model? Using a Bayesian likelihood approach, we estimate these two models with Japan's data. This article shows that the labor market search model is superior to the sticky wage model in terms of both marginal likelihood and out‐of‐sample forecast performance, particularly regarding inflation. The labor market search model is better able to replicate the cross‐correlation among inflation, real wages, and output in the data. Moreover, in this model, real marginal cost is determined by both hiring cost and unit labor cost that varies with employment fluctuations, which gives rise to a high contemporaneous correlation between inflation and real marginal cost as represented in the New Keynesian Phillips curve. (JEL E24, E32, E37)     

The estimated cost of project labor agreements on federal construction

I estimate the cost of President Clinton’s June 1997 executive memorandum encouraging federal departments and agencies to use project labor agreements (PLAs) on “large and significant” construction projects. Based on the higher wage costs associated with PLAs, the cost of federally owned construction will rise by 1.7 to 7.0 percent annually. Over the three years for which the memorandum will apply, federally owned construction costs will increase by $844 million to $3.44 billion. If the memorandum is interpreted to apply to state and local construction projects funded with federal money, the cost could range between $3.2 and $13.0 billion. The author thanks Ken Deavers, Anita Hattiangadi, Edward Potter, and Gary Shiu for their suggestions and help in the preparation of this paper.     

The closed and union shop in Western Europe

Conclusion But in the final analysis the cases cited above in Switzerland, Belgium, or the Netherlands are only modest exceptions or glosses on the general absence of formal union or closed-shop arrangements continental or Western Europe, and this contrasts, of course, with the United States. Whether or not this particular divergence may be reduced in the future remains to be seen. Certainly, in the U.S. with the union movement increasingly aware of its relative (to the labor force) decline in numbers, if anything one could anticipate even greater determination to insist on strong union-security arrangements in the future. (Whether this might be offest by some growth in state right-to-work laws, is problematical). Forecasting the future of the closed or union shop, or other forms of union security in Western Europe is hazardous, although this paper does suggest some grounds for development of a trend in the direction of such developments in several countries. How then in retrospect does the West European experience relate to the broader theme of the conference, the free rider issue? Trade unionism in European history has been at least as much a social and political collective phenomenon, as it has been an economic phenomenon. Economists must be able to understand workers’ relationships to unions in terms of these collective realities, if their explanations of why workers do or do not join unions, or why unions may or may not feel compelled to seek the closed or union shop are to achieve a similar reality. This paper is submitted by the author in his private capacity. It is not intended to represent the position of the Library of Congress, where he is currently serving as a senior specialist, nor the University of Wisconsin. The paper has benefited from the comments of Morris Weisz, University of Wisconsin and Bruce Millen of the U.S. Department of Labor.     

Gender,Productivity, and the Marital Wage Premium

Explanations for married men’s wage premium often emphasize greater market productivity due to a gendered division of household labor, though this “specialization thesis” has been insufficiently interrogated. Using data from Wave 2 of the National Survey of Families and Households (N = 972), this paper examines the relationship between wages and time spent in paid labor and housework for married women and men with high levels of labor force attachment and their spouses. Scrutiny of couples’ time use finds strong evidence for the gendered division of labor, but little support for the anticipated wage effects of the specialization thesis itself. Less strict sample restrictions point to the need for continued research directed at couples’ joint employment and household labor decisions.