老年型人口的三个亚型的划分及其意义

根据不同国家和地区的老年型人口在年龄金字塔上的表现 ,将老年型人口划分为底部老龄化亚型、中部老龄化亚型和顶部老龄化亚型三个亚型 ,并给出了划分标准。老龄型人口三个亚型的划分 ,既是对人口类型划分理论的一种深化和完善 ,同时 ,也有利于我们更准确地把握人口年龄结构状况 ,有利于认识某一人口的发展态势和年龄结构的变动趋势 ,帮助我们制定迎接人口老龄化挑战的对策     

试用模糊优先比定序法研究人口年龄结构的地域分布

人口的年龄结构是人口再生产类型的重要标志,而年龄中位数、老年系数、少儿系数、老少比是反映一个社会人口年龄结构特征的几个主要指标。但这些指标的地区差异参差不一,往往很难籍此将各地的人口年龄结构状况列出一个序次。本文试用模糊数学中的优先比定序法,分析全国各地人口年龄结构与上海的对比,列出其相似亲疏序次。     

中国人口年龄结构特征与变化趋势分析--基于1995～2014年数据的实证研究

人口年龄结构是经过多年人口自然增长和迁移变动等综合作用而形成的客观状况，对未来人口发展的速度和趋势以及国家或地区经济社会整体发展产生重要影响。本文通过对1995～2014年数据的实证分析，发现20年来我国人口年龄结构呈现以下特征：少儿人口数量减少且比重呈持续下降趋势；劳动年龄人口数量稳步增长且比重呈稳定上升趋势；老年人口数量持续增长且比重呈上升趋势，老龄化进程加快。总体人口年龄结构呈现老年型，各地区人口老龄化程度存在差异。各地人口负担系数存在较大差异，人均GDP与总抚养比和少年儿童抚养比呈负相关，与老年人口抚养比呈正相关。经济发达省市区人口负担系数较小；城乡人口比例呈持续升高态势；城乡人口总抚养比和少儿抚养比呈下降趋势，城乡老年人口抚养比呈稳步升高态势；乡村人口抚养比高于城镇。     

现行养老保障模式的可持续性和改革建议研究

一、老龄化现状与展望随着中国用较短的时间实现了人口再生产类型的转变,人口年龄结构也相应地发生变化,老龄化水平不断提高。联合国把一个国家65岁及以上人口比重超过7%定义为老龄化社会。按照该标准,2000年第五次人口普查时,中国已经     

山东省人口老龄化空间分异及其形成机制研究

研究人口老龄化的区域差异及解释其成因,对合理制定人口发展战略具有重要意义。本文从时空角度探讨山东省人口老龄化进程,构造模型分析老龄化空间分异变动的制约因素,采用两种分布比较方法定量研究各制约因素的影响程度,最终揭示老龄化程度区域差异扩大的动力机制。结果表明,山东省老年人口比重出现极化现象的主要原因在于人口自身的惯性作用,包括人口年龄结构和出生率的共同作用,此外还受到经济社会诸多因素的制约。     

“银发市场”：对应人口老龄化社会态势的老年产品理念

当前,我国人口的年龄结构已开始进入老龄化进程,随着老年人比例规模日益扩大,老年特殊性的潜在经济影响也由于其规模增长而被释放和放大。老年群体的这一经济特征无疑将给宏观经济发展带来明显的实质性影响。由此,对于老年消费品市场和老年产业发展的研究,就具有了现实的需要和当下的实践意义。本文就老龄日用品制造可持续发展的角度,以工业设计的创新思想,对人口老龄化社会态势下老年产品的时代特性和研发理念。展开基本认识与开发策略的跨学科阐述,以期作为“他山之石”,为人口经济学理论增添一个不同既往的研究视角。     

我国人口年龄结构的转变与特点

人口年龄结构是指总人口中不同年龄人口的比例关系。由于不同年龄的人具有不同的“社会经济”意义,因此不同类型的人口年龄结构对人口再生产类型、速度、劳动年龄与非劳动年龄人口的比例,以及社会经济发展有着很大不同的影响。本文以三次人口普查与1987年1%人口抽样调查结果以及联合国1982年《世界人口展望》的预测结果为主要资料,分析我国人口年龄结构类型的转变、特点及其对我国目前及未来社会经济发展中的有利条件与不利因素。     

人口老龄化：进程模拟和政策机制分析

以人口老龄化系数分析为主线,对相关统计数据从生育率、死亡率、老龄化系数、跨期队列人口四个方面进行模拟分析,推算出中国人口老龄化进程在1976年开始出现;计划生育政策是老龄化进程加速的关键因素,并导致我国步入老龄化国家行列的时间提前了12年;面对老龄化和高龄化浪潮,应当实行由国家主导、社会与家庭广泛参与的多元化的老龄化应对举措。     

西藏人口年龄结构现状与特征分析——基于第六次人口普查数据的分析

人口年龄结构是人口最基本、最重要的结构之一。本文在对第六次人口普查数据汇总分析的基础上．将西藏2010年人口年龄结构状况与2000年第五次人口普查年龄结构进行对比研究．深入分析西藏人口年龄结构的现状和变动特征,并提出对策思考,试图为科学规划和制定西藏中长期人口政策、就业发展战略以及社会公共管理政策等提供科学依据。     

浙江省人口老龄化与计划生育关系的研究

浙江省的人口年龄结构已成为典型的老年型人口 ,人口老龄化程度在全国处于领先水平。未来老年人正向中、高龄发展 ,老龄化速度快。老龄化程度在城乡及地区间分布不平衡 ,老龄化超前于社会经济发展水平 ,生育率下降是导致人口老龄化的主要因素。在 1970— 1990年实行计划生育的 2 0年里 ,生育率的迅速下降是人口年龄构成变化的主导因素。对未来人口年龄结构影响最大的是年龄构成的作用并使人口年龄结构老化。生育率降得越低越好是一个观念误区 ,而应把优化人口结构和控制人口总量放在同等重要位置     

山东省东西部人口老龄化差异评析

山东省是人口大省,人口老龄化进程很快,2000年底,65岁及以上人口所占比重已达到8.12%。并且其人口老龄化还存在很大的地区差异,本文拟从人口老龄化程度、人口老龄化速度以及老龄人口学特征方面加以对比评析,继而探究这种地区差异形成的原因。     

中国少数民族人口发展形势分析

一、人口数量 20世纪80年代，中国少数民族人口一度高速增长，从1982年的6643万人增至1990年的9057万人，年均增长率达到3．89％，占全国人口的比例从6．62％提高到8．01％。1990—2000年，根据“五普”资料，全国（大陆）人口增加了9．92％，其中，汉族人口由103919万人增至113739万人，增加了9．45％，全国人口和汉族人口年均增长率分别为0．91％和0．87％；     

What Data from the 2010 Census Tell Us about the Changing Child Population of the United States

This article provides an overview of changes in the U.S. child population (persons under age 18) based on data released from the 2010 census. Today, the number of children in the United States (74.2 million) is at an all-time high, but the share of the national population who are children (24 %) is at an all-time low. The number of children in the population grew by 1.9 million between 2000 and 2010, but the overall national figure masks many important details and divergent paths. The growing racial and ethnic diversity in the U.S. is more advanced among children than among adults. Some areas of the country and some demographic groups grew significantly over the decade, while the number of children in other areas and in other groups fell.     

A comparative study of ethnic residential segregation in Ghana’s two largest cities,Accra and Kumasi

The rate of urbanization is far more rapid in sub-Saharan Africa than in any other major region of the world. However, little is known about patterns of ethnic residential segregation in rapidly urbanizing African cities. This paper is crafted to make an important contribution through its focus on Ghana’s two largest cities: Accra and Kumasi. Making use of the most recent population and housing census data of 2000 to generate a Location Quotient index, the analyses explore the cities’ degree of ethnic diversity and concentration for comparative purposes. In relative terms, the study reveals that the level of residential ethnic segregation is fairly balanced in Accra compared to Kumasi. However, there are important differences between the findings of this Ghanaian case study and findings from research in the West, where the residential segregation is heavily determined by cultural/racial factors in addition to socio-economic factors. In the absence of institutional and ethnic discrimination, the most fundamental underlying cause of segregation in the Ghanaian case appears to be the socio-economic circumstance of ethnic groups present in the cities. The paper concludes by exploring the implications of the study for urban and national development in Ghana as well as the future patterns of ethnic clustering likely to emerge in Accra and Kumasi.     

滇川藏毗连藏区流动人口族际关系调查与思考

滇藏川毗连藏区作为联系内地和西藏的重要通道区,历来是多民族流动人口的汇集区。近年来,随着藏区社会经济外向联系的不断增强,各民族人口流入滇藏川毗连藏区的数量和扩散地域不断扩大,流动人口与藏民之间的族际交往途径和族际关系都出现了新形貌和新动态。本文在深入该藏区调查摸底流动人口分布情形基础上,重点对族际认知态度、族际关系感知、族际通婚状况等多个方面进行了量化分析,从而较全面呈现了目前滇藏川毗连藏区中流动人口的族际关系形貌及其变化动态。     

Diverging Demography: Hispanic and Non-Hispanic Contributions to U.S. Population Redistribution and Diversity

The substantial growth and geographic dispersion of Hispanics is among the most important demographic trends in recent U.S. demographic history. Our county-level study examines how widespread Hispanic natural increase and net migration has combined with the demographic change among non-Hispanics to produce an increasingly diverse population. This paper uses U.S. Census Bureau data and special tabulations of race/ethnic specific births and deaths from NCHS to highlight the demographic role of Hispanics as an engine of new county population growth and ethnoracial diversity across the U.S. landscape. It highlights key demographic processes—natural increase and net migration—that accounted for 1990–2010 changes in the absolute and relative sizes of the Hispanic and non-Hispanic populations. Hispanics accounted for the majority of all U.S. population growth between 2000 and 2010. Yet, Hispanics represented only 16 % of the U.S. population in 2010. Most previous research has focused on Hispanic immigration; here, we examine how natural increase and net migration among both the Hispanic and non-Hispanic population contribute to the nation’s growing diversity. Indeed, the demographic impact of rapid Hispanic growth has been reinforced by minimal white population growth due to low fertility, fewer women of reproductive age and growing mortality among the aging white population America’s burgeoning Hispanic population has left a large demographic footprint that is magnified by low and declining fertility and increasing mortality among America’s aging non-Hispanic population.     

The Implications of Change in Population Size,Distribution, and Composition on the Number of Overweight and Obese Adults and the Direct and Indirect Cost Associated with Overweight and Obese Adults in Texas Through 2040

Changes in population characteristics are associated with changes in the prevalence of physical and related health conditions with alternative types of population change leading to change in the prevalence of certain conditions. Examination of the effects of future demographic change on such conditions is, in turn, critical for understanding the future need for various types of health-related facilities and services. This article provides an example of how future demographic changes are likely to impact overweight and obese status in Texas, a rapidly growing and diversifying state. Specifically it uses population decomposition techniques to examine the relative impacts of population growth, aging and changes in the racial/ethnic composition of the population on increases in the prevalence and related costs of overweight and obesity in Texas, an important input for the formulation of statewide health policies. The number of overweight adults in Texas is projected to increase from 5.5 million in 2000 to 16.0 million in 2040, and the number of obese adults to increase from 3.5 million in 2000 to 14.6 million in 2040. The largest projected increases occur among Hispanics and other minority populations and for all race/ethnicity groups the increases are largest among those who are 65 years of age and older. Decomposition analysis indicates that of the projected increase of 10.5 million overweight adults from 2000 to 2040, 54.0% is attributable to population increase, 15.0% to change in age distribution, and 31.0% to change in racial/ethnic composition. Of the projected increase in the number of obese adults, 61.6% is due to population change and 38.4% to change in racial/ethnic composition. The annual costs associated with overweight and obesity prevalence are expected to increase from $10.5 billion in 2000 to $10.5 billion in 2000 to 40.3 billion in 2040. The results suggest that services to address these conditions will need to be widely dispersed across the state with particular concentrations of the elderly, Hispanics, and Other minority populations.     

Population aging and environmental quality in OECD countries: evidence from sulfur dioxide emissions data

Recent literature has suggested that population aging may shape energy demand and related emissions. Recent scholarship also suggests that emissions play a role in contemporary climate change and, as such, understanding the effect of population compositional change has considerable environmental policy importance. The purpose of this paper is to empirically investigate the macro-level relationship between population aging and emissions of sulfur dioxide. We extend a standard macroeconomic estimation function by including the age composition of the population. In doing so, we separate, for the first time in the literature on aging and the environment, the life-cycle dimension of the age structure from its cohort dimension. We utilize data representing a balanced panel of 25 OECD countries during the period from 1970 to 2000. Consistent with our expectations, we find that societies with a low proportion of young and a high proportion of senior citizens emit more sulfur dioxide. At the same time, our results suggest that a high proportion of individuals born before 1960 is positively correlated to national sulfur dioxide emissions. Our study contributes to understanding of past emission patterns in OECD countries and the findings may allow for improvements in future emission projections.     

城市社区养老服务“逢源”模式探析

面对人口老龄化的浪潮,养老成为政府、社会和个人必须面对的问题。本文在访谈和问卷调查的基础上,客观描述全国养老示范社区—广州市逢源社区养老服务的现状。逢源社区开展养老一条街、一条龙服务,以半公益的性质满足老人不同的需求,开拓了一条多元化、社区化的养老服务新路子。但目前社区养老服务空间资源匮乏、服务的精细化程度不高、服务人员缺乏专业训练等问题阻碍了社区养老服务水平的提高。只有积极整合社会各方面的力量和资源、增强服务的精细化程度和覆盖面,打造专业性的服务队伍,提高服务品质,才能满足当前老年人多元化的需求,营造幸福老年社区、和谐社会。     

上海市人口老龄化对养老负担的影响

自1979年进入老龄化社会来,上海市的老龄化程度一直在不断加大,至今老龄化程度已达到了21.6%与1979年相比已经增长了一倍多,上海市不仅经济发展位居全国前列,其老龄化程度也是远远高于全国的。随着这一趋势的加快,导致了养老负担不断加大,进而影响到经济的可持续发展,针对这种情况对上海市人口老龄化的特点进行分析,找出其规律,分析人口老龄化对养老负担的具体影响,从而提出应对的合理措施是十分有意义的。