2011年：宽松货币政策实施与退出的“滞胀”效应——来自2002～2010年货币存量变动研究的见解

通过对2002～2010年我国货币存量、价格波动与产出增长关系的实证研究,有两个重要的发现：一是一个高的货币存量增长率会带来物价上涨的趋势,而抑制物价上涨的根本之策是降低货币增长率;二是2009～2010年实施的宽松货币政策对产出增长的短期效应开始消褪,而价格则进入了一个上升通道,＂滞胀＂风险已经出现,因而中央银行转向降低通胀的一个明确的货币政策规则应是优选的政策目标。     

STICKY PRICE AND STICKY INFORMATION PRICE‐SETTING MODELS: WHAT IS THE DIFFERENCE?

Using a partial equilibrium framework, Mankiw and Reis show that a sticky information model can generate a lagged and gradual inflation response after a monetary policy shock, whereas a sticky price model cannot. Our study demonstrates that the finding is sensitive to their model's parameterization. To determine a plausible parameterization, we specify a general equilibrium model with sticky information. In that model, we find that inflation peaks only one period after a monetary disturbance. A sensitivity analysis of our results reveals that the inflation peak is delayed by including real rigidities when the monetary policy instrument is money growth, whereas inflation peaks immediately when the policy instrument is the nominal interest rate. ( JEL E31, E32, E52)     

THE LONG-RUN LINK BETWEEN MONEY GROWTH AND INFLATION

Is inflation always a monetary phenomenon? Many economists believe that the link between money growth and inflation in the U.S. has weakened over the last two decades due in part to the Federal Reserve's policy experiment in 1979–1982 and innovations in the financial sector of the economy. I find that the long-run relationship between money growth and inflation is strong in a statistical sense and important economically. The key result is that the trend or growth component in CPI inflation is entirely due to the trend component of monetary base growth. (JEL C32, E31, E51)     

Growth and Inflation Disparities in Corridor V

The paper offers a brief discussion about the role of transport infrastructure in the current growth strategy followed by the European Union. As a corridor is the locus where transport infrastructure and growth should interact more effectively, the central part of the Corridor V is considered as an interesting case study. A growth scenario for eight countries is provided to show that wide growth disparities are to be expected during the next decade. The final part of the paper speculates about inflation differentials that are likely to emerge when growth differentials tend to persist inside a monetary union. As the Euro zone will be enlarged to host fast-growers in Corridor V such as Slovenia (maybe as soon as 2007), Hungary, and the Slovak Republic, growth differentials and the single monetary policy could make it difficult to deliver a common monetary environment.     

THE FISCAL FRAMEWORK OF MONETARY POLICY

This paper i11ustrates the importance of the fiscal framework for monetary analysis by discussing three separate issues. I begin by examining how the fiscal framework changes the macroeconomic equilibrium associated with different steady state rates of money growth. This includes a summary of research that I have presented elsewhere and comments on several additional aspects of the way in which the fiscal structure destroys the neutrality of monetary policy.
The second section deals with the short-run impact of changes in monetary policy. Here again the fiscal structure complicates the economy's response to monetary policy.
The final section looks at the effect of the fiscal structure on the central banks choice of monetary policies. Fiscal structures are likely to influence the policies adopted because they affect the costs and benefits of monetary policies.     

UNCERTAIN EFFECTS OF MONEY AND THE LINK BETWEEN THE INFLATION RATE AND INFLATION UNCERTAINTY

In the postwar period high rates of inflation are associated with high levels of inflation uncertainty. In this paper I argue that the inflation rate and inflation uncertainty are linked by forecasters' uncertainty about the impact of money growth on the price level, and I present evidence indicating that this has been the case. As long as the impact of money growth on the price level remains unpredictable, then even predictable money growth will cause inflation uncertainty with its accompanying adverse effects on employment and output.     

A NEW MONETARIST MODEL OF FIAT AND E‐MONEY

We develop a dual payment New Monetarist model, where an electronic money (e‐purse) competes with fiat money (cash). The two payment instruments differ in terms of security, cost, and acceptability. Strategic complementarities lead to multiple monetary equilibria. We establish the conditions under which e‐money can coexist with, or replace fiat money, and explain the reasons for the e‐purse failure/success in a few countries. We also compare welfare when one currency or both circulate. When the risk of theft of cash is endogenous, e‐money cannot replace cash entirely; however, low inflation can facilitate the adoption of e‐money in parallel with fiat money. (JEL D83, E40, E50)     

The Money Taboo: Its Effects in Everyday Life and in the Practice of Psychotherapy

A cultural taboo regarding discussion of money affects psychotherapists as well as the lay public. As a result, the psychological literature regarding money is sparse while issues relating to money are seldom addressed in our training, our self analyses, or the treatment of our patients. This article cites some of the literature that does exist, discusses the reasons for and effects of the money taboo, provides a psychological definition of money, and offers some case material that should help to focus thinking about money through the lens of psychodynamic, object relations, and self psychological theories.     

‘Think twice’: using economics and sociology to understand monetary issues–The case of Switzerland

This paper seeks to demonstrate to what extent an academic approach that borrows from economics and sociology is heuristic in terms of fully understanding monetary issues. Contrary to authors that consider money to be neutral, this article emphasizes that money is a ‘total social fact’. Hence, it focuses on three meanings of money through the theoretical framework of Schumpeter and various French institutionalists. It also focuses on the Swiss case, which is particularly relevant because money plays a significant role in order for such a country to foster prosperity and create social links. Finally, there is clearly a high usefulness of a pluralistic approach on the monetary issue for heterodox economists.     

Money management and control in the Indian joint family across generations

Studies of money management and control will have more cross‐cultural relevance if the family context of money across generations is taken into account. The study of money management and control in middle‐income nuclear and joint family households in urban India illustrates the importance of examining money flows within the wider family context because there is a two‐way flow of money beyond the married couple – between parents and adult children, siblings and other members of the extended family. In the three or four generational joint family, control and management at the household level is not necessarily duplicated for the constituent couples. We draw on open‐ended interviews of 40 persons from 27 urban middle‐income households in North India, between November 2007 and January 2008, to show that the male control of money is the dominant pattern. This pattern is linked to the ideology of male dominance that is found among the middle, lower middle and struggling households, particularly in non‐metropolitan households. The upper‐middle‐class households predominantly in metropolitan households show a pattern of joint or independent control. The focus is on the couple's money decisions within the context of the wider family.     

MONEY AND PRODUCT QUALITY UNDER ASYMMETRIC INFORMATION

This article examines the effects of money on product quality, as well as the price pattern of heterogeneous quality goods, in a search‐theoretical monetary model with divisible money and divisible commodities. We establish the existence and uniqueness/multiplicity of monetary equilibrium in several different cases. The steady‐state equilibrium of our model displays several properties that are absent or distinct from those of previous studies. In particular, we find that under egalitarian bargaining, the Friedman rule cannot achieve socially efficient allocation due to asymmetric information. We find that the price of informed high‐quality goods is higher than the price of uninformed quality goods. We also find that an increase in inflation can improve product quality. (JEL E40)     

An Examination of the Asymmetric Effects of Money Supply Shocks in the Pre–World War I and Interwar Periods

We test whether monetary shocks had asymmetric output effects before World War II. Ball and Mankiw (1994) show that expectations of persistent inflation under fiat money can explain why negative monetary shocks had larger effects than positive shocks after World War II. Consistent with this explanation, we find such asymmetry in the interwar period following the abandonment of the gold standard and before it, when agents arguably anticipated this development. We find no monetary asymmetry before World War I, which is consistent with Ball and Mankiw (1994), because under a credible gold standard, agents do not expect persistent inflation.     

THE CREDIT‐CHANNEL TRANSMISSION MECHANISM AND THE NONLINEAR GROWTH AND WELFARE EFFECTS OF INFLATION AND TAXES

With the credit‐channel effect driven by the central bank's open market operations, this paper's model easily gives rise to the nonlinear inflation‐growth nexus, which is evidenced by a number of cross‐country empirical studies. The threshold level of the inflation rate is found to be lower when tax rates are higher. The presence of the credit‐channel effect also provides the rationale for setting positive (and smaller than 1) tax rates on consumption, labor income, and capital income. The optimal tax rates rise as the inflation target declines. Under a fiscal policy rule where labor and capital income taxes move proportionally to each other, the optimal capital income tax rate could be higher than the optimal labor income tax rate. Under a sufficiently large central bank balance sheet, the credit‐channel effect will be so weak that inflation and all kinds of taxes are growth and welfare repressing. This provides a rationale for central banks that have implemented quantitative easing policies to shrink their balance sheets. (JEL E58, E62, O42)     

The Public Sector and income distribution in South Africa during the period 1970–82

This study considers the impact of fiscal and monetary policy on the distribution of income in South Africa. It analyses expenditure using two approaches: (1) the general approach which considers the extent of programmes having a relatively high distributive contact in favour of the poor and (2) the direct money‐flow approach which assumes that expenditure benefits those who receive it as their income. Although neither approach is perfect, it can be concluded that the general composition of expenditure has favoured the poor. It is also argued that the tax system is partly progressive and partly regressive and that it has become more regressive, although remaining in balance progressive. Monetary policy during the 1970s, however, has had definite regressive income distribution effects.     

MONEY, CREDIT, and WAGES IN HYPERINFLATION: POST-WORLD WAR I GERMANY

An important feature of the German hyperinflation is the way in which accelerating monetization of both government and private debt by the Reichsbank fueled the inflation process. The stimulus to private credit demand arising from more rapid adjustment of money wages over this period is often ignored, however. The present empirical results strongly support the importance of wage pressures in augmenting fiscal influences on nominal money growth during 1920–1923. Our findings also suggest that wage claims provided the main conduit through which higher inflationary expectations were accommodated by faster rates of monetary expansion.     

EFFICIENT INFORMATION PROCESSING IN OUTPUT MARKETS: TESTS AND IMPLICATIONS

If goods markets efficiently process information, much of received macro doctrine seems of little relevance. Neither unemployment nor the money stock should be leading indicators of inflation. Countercyclical monetary policy will have little effect on inflation. Restrictive monetary policy can have severe effects on real variables if the public is unconvinced the authorities are committed to reducing inflation. When proper account is taken of mean shifts in the stochastic process generating CPI inflation rates, there is little remaining autocorrelation indicative of inefficiency, and filter rule experiments similarly support the hypothesis of goods market efficiency.     

MONEY,OUTPUT, AND INFLATION IN THE LONGER TERM: MAJOR INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES, 1880–2001

We study how fluctuations in money growth correlate with fluctuations in real output growth and inflation. Using band‐pass filters, we extract cycles from each time series that last 2–8 (business cycles) and 8–40 (longer‐term cycles) years. We employ annual data, 1880–2001 without gaps, for 11 industrial countries. Fluctuations in money growth do not play a systematic role at business cycle frequencies. However, money growth leads or affects contemporaneously inflation, but not real output growth, in the longer run. Also, formal break tests indicate no structural changes for the longer‐term money growth and inflation relationship, despite changes in policy regimes.(JEL E3)     

PPP Financing in the Road Sector: A Disequilibrium Analysis Based on the Monetary Circuit

This paper discusses public and private financing of infrastructure against the background of monetary equilibria, where money is not neutral and financing has an impact on allocation through distribution. These correspond to “disequilibrium positions” in the neoclassical barter equilibrium, as they violate some of its optimality conditions. In these contexts, evaluating welfare before and after the realisation of a project implies a comparison between two suboptimal positions. Such a comparison reveals that, contrary to a widely held view, there are not many rational arguments that may lead to prefer private financing to public financing of road infrastructure, particularly where local incomes are low. Post Keynesian analysis in general and its monetary variant of the circuit, are useful tools for the analysis of public investment policies in such a disequilibrium context. In particular, some features of the monetary circuit approach are well suited to address the economic problems raised by the analysis of public private partnerships (PPP), notably: (a) the integration of the banking sector and the recognition of its role in monetary creation by the private sector; (b) the monetary creation by the State within a macroeconomic framework fully integrating public finance; and, (c) the necessary link between uncertainty and disequilibrium. Combined with a partial equilibrium analysis based on realistic microeconomic configurations of costs and transport demand parameters, the analysis of the circuit highlights that PPP in the road sector do not add anything to the level of effective demand, being in fact the other flip of the coin of restrictive budgetary policies. PPP play a role in mobilizing part of the accumulated savings that the State is forbidden to attract directly because of debt ceilings. They have a softening effect on the Government budgetary constraints similar to those that could be reached if the Government was allowed to accrue investment like the private sector, but are a less transparent solution, because the relevant debt is not necessarily recognized in the balance sheet that services it.     

THE SWINGS OF U.S. INFLATION AND THE GIBSON PARADOX

In recent business cycles, U.S. inflation has experienced a reduction of volatility and a severe weakening in the correlation to the nominal interest rate (Gibson paradox). We examine these facts in an estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with money. Our findings point at a flatter New Keynesian Phillips Curve (higher price stickiness) and a lower persistence of markup shocks as the main explanatory factors. In addition, a higher interest‐rate elasticity of money demand, an increasing role of demand‐side shocks, and a less systematic behavior of Fed's monetary policy also account for the recent patterns of U.S. inflation dynamics. (JEL E32, E47)