Nonmarital childbearing: Influences of education,marriage, and fertility

We examined the determinants of nonmarital fertility, focusing on the effects of other life-course events: education, marriage, marital dissolution, and marital fertility. Since these determinants are potentially endogenous, we modeled the processes that generate them jointly with nonmarital fertility and accounted for the sequencing of events and the unobserved correlations across processes. The results showed that the risk of nonmarital conception increases immediately after leaving school and that the educational effects are less pronounced for black women than for other women. The risk is lower for previously married women than for never-married women, even controlling for age, but this reduction is significant only for black women. The more children a woman already has, the lower her risk of nonmarital childbearing, particularly if the earlier children were born during a previous marriage. Ignoring endogeneity issues seriously biases the estimates of several substantively important effects.     

Birth month,school graduation,and the timing of births and marriages

We investigated the timing of fertility and marriage in Sweden using exogenous variation in the age at school graduation that results from differences in birth month. Our analysis found that the difference of 11 months in the age at leaving school between women who were born in two consecutive months, December and January, implies a delay in the age at first birth of 4.9 months. This effect of delayed graduation also persists for the timing of second births and first marriages, but it does not affect completed fertility or the overall probability of marriage before age 45. These results suggest the existence of a relatively rigid sequencing of demographic events in early adulthood, and the age at graduation from school emerges as an important factor in determining the timing--but not the quantum--of familyformation. In addition, these effects point to a potentially important influence of social age, defined by an individual's school cohort, instead of biological age. The relevance of social age is likely due to social interactions and peer-group influences exerted by individuals who are in the same school cohort but are not necessarily of the same age.     

Parenthood and Leaving Home in Young Adulthood

With increases in nonmarital fertility, the sequencing of transitions in early adulthood has become even more complex. Once the primary transition out of the parental home, marriage was first replaced by nonfamily living and cohabitation; more recently, many young adults have become parents before entering a coresidential union. Studies of leaving home, however, have not examined the role of early parenthood. Using the Young Adult Study of the 1979 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (n = 4,674), we use logistic regression to analyze parenthood both as a correlate of leaving home and as a route from the home. We find that even in mid-adolescence, becoming a parent is linked with leaving home. Coming from a more affluent family is linked with leaving home via routes that do not involve children rather than those that do, and having a warm relationship with either a mother or a father retards leaving home, particularly to nonfamily living, but is not related to parental routes out of the home.     

Living arrangements and the transition to adulthood

The sharp decline with age in the percent of young adults who live with their parents is usually attributed to other concurrent life-cycle changes in the "transition to adulthood." We investigate this presumption using data tracking high school seniors seven years after graduation. Although marriage and military service strongly reduce residential dependence on parents, other life-cycle changes such as employment and parenthood are only weakly associated with living arrangements and often affect returning home more than leaving. "Leaving home" is often independent of other transition events and should be studied directly to understand recent patterns of family change.     

Changes in union status during the transition to parenthood in eleven European countries, 1970s to early 2000s

Couples who have children are increasingly likely to have lived together without being married at some point in their relationship. Some couples begin their unions with cohabitation and marry before first conception, some marry during pregnancy or directly after the first birth, while others remain unmarried 3 years after the first birth. Using union and fertility histories since the 1970s for eleven countries, we examine whether women who have children in unions marry, and if so, at what stage in family formation. We also examine whether women who conceive when cohabiting are more likely to marry or separate. We find that patterns of union formation and childbearing develop along different trajectories across countries. In all countries, however, less than 40 per cent of women remained in cohabitation up to 3 years after the first birth, suggesting that marriage remains the predominant institution for raising children.     

Trajectories of Public Assistance Receipt among Female High School Dropouts

This paper maps patterns of public assistance receipt for 1979 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth female high school dropouts between 1984, when they were 19–27 years old, and 1998 when they reached their early 30s and 40s. Using latent class cluster models, I test whether obtaining a GED, occupational training, work experience, marriage, and delayed parenthood reduce the probability of receiving public assistance. I find that dropouts who earn their GEDs within 4 years after leaving high school have a high probability of never receiving public assistance across the 14-year period. Those who earn GEDs 5 or more years after dropping out have a sharply reduced risk of welfare use in mid-adulthood, suggesting that a late GED may act as a turning point for those formerly reliant on public assistance. Although work experience is the strongest predictor of avoiding public assistance, marriage and education provide a more effective route off of welfare for some recipients. On-the-job training and earning a GED later in life increase the likelihood that chronic recipients will permanently exit welfare. Highlighting the diversity within the welfare population, I conclude that no single approach to ending reliance on public assistance will lead to economic self-sufficiency among the undereducated.     

The continuation of education after marriage among women in the United States: 1970

Data from the 1970 National Fertility Study are used to assess the extent and determinants of post-nuptial education among women in the United States. Over one-fifth of all women have attended high school or college since marriage; over one-third either have returned to school or anticipate returning to an academic institution sometime in the future. This phenomenon is apparently increasing since women married less than five years have already attended school in as great a proportion as women married 15-19 years. Examination of differentials reveals for both blacks and whites that post-nupital education is higher among women who: (1) attended college before marriage, (2) married early, (3) are currently separated or divorced, (4) support egalitarian sex-role attitudes, or (5) whose most recent occupation is in the professional, managerial, or administrative category. Post-nuptial trends in education undoubtedly reflect the much broader social phenomenon of changing sex-role perceptions.     

Early teen marriage and future poverty

Both early teen marriage and dropping out of high school have historically been associated with a variety of negative outcomes, including higher poverty rates throughout life. Are these negative outcomes due to preexisting differences, or do they represent the causal effect of marriage and schooling choices? To better understand the true personal and societal consequences, in this article, I use an instrumental variables (IV) approach that takes advantage of variation in state laws regulating the age at which individuals are allowed to marry, drop out of school, and begin work. The baseline IV estimate indicates that a woman who marries young is 31 percentage points more likely to live in poverty when she is older. Similarly, a woman who drops out of school is 11 percentage points more likely to be poor. The results are robust to a variety of alternative specifications and estimation methods, including limited information maximum likelihood (LIML) estimation and a control function approach. While grouped ordinary least squares (OLS) estimates for the early teen marriage variable are also large, OLS estimates based on individual-level data are small, consistent with a large amount of measurement error.Historically, individuals were allowed to enter into a marriage contract at a very young age. In Ancient Rome, the appropriate minimum age was regarded as 14 for males and 12 for females. When Rome became Christianized, these age minimums were adopted into the ecclesiastical law of the Catholic Church. This canon law governed most marriages in Western Europe until the Reformation. When England broke away from the Catholic Church, the Anglican Church carried with it the same minimum age requirements for the prospective bride and groom. The minimum age requirements of 12 and 14 were eventually written into English civil law. By default, these provisions became the minimum marriage ages in colonial America. These common laws inherited from the British remained in force in America unless a specific state law was enacted to replace them (see “Marriage Law,” Encyclopædia Britannica 2005; http://www.britannica.com).While Roman, Catholic, English, and early American law may have allowed marriage at 12 for girls and 14 for boys, many questioned the advisability of such early unions. Researchers and policymakers around the turn of the twentieth century recognized that teens may be especially ill-prepared to assume the familial responsibilities and financial pressures associated with marriage.¹ As a result of the changing economic and social landscape of the United States, in the latter part of the nineteenth century and throughout the twentieth century, individual states began to slowly raise the minimum legal age at which individuals were allowed to marry. In the United States, as in most developed countries, age restrictions have been revised upward so that they are now between 15 and 21 years of age.During this same time period, dramatic changes were also occurring in the educational system of the United States (see Goldin 1998, 1999; Goldin and Katz 1997, 2003; Lleras-Muney 2002). Free public schooling at the elementary level spread across the United States in the middle of the nineteenth century, and free secondary schooling proliferated in the early part of the twentieth century. As secondary schooling became more commonplace, states began to pass compulsory schooling laws. States often also passed child labor laws that stipulated minimum age or schooling requirements before a work permit would be granted. These state-specific compulsory schooling and child labor laws are correlated with the legal restrictions on marriage age, indicating that it might be important to consider the impact of all the laws simultaneously.There are at least two rationales often given for the use of state laws as policy instruments to limit teenagers’ choices. The first argument is that teens do not accurately compare short-run benefits versus long-run costs. If teens are making myopic decisions, restrictive state laws could prevent decisions they will later regret. It is also argued that the adverse effects associated with teenagers’ choices impose external costs on the rest of society. If these effects can be prevented, external costs (such as higher welfare expenditures) would also argue for restrictive state laws. Both teenage marriage and dropping out of high school are closely associated with a variety of negative outcomes, including poverty later in life. To assess the relevance of either argument, however, it is important to know whether the observed effects are causal.Any observed negative effects may be due to preexisting differences rather than a causal relationship between teen marriage (or schooling choices) and adverse adult outcomes. Women who marry as teens or drop out of school may come from more disadvantaged backgrounds or possess other unobserved characteristics that would naturally lead to worse outcomes. For example, teens choosing to marry young might have lower unobserved earnings ability, making it hard to draw conclusions about the causal relationship between teenage marriage and poverty.To identify the effect of a teenager’s marriage and schooling choices on future poverty, I use state-specific marriage, schooling, and child labor laws as instruments. Variation in these laws across states and over time can be used to identify the causal impact that teen marriage and high school completion have on future economic well-being. Although compulsory schooling laws have been used as instruments in a variety of settings, this appears to be the first time marriage laws have been used as instruments. The idea of the marriage law instrument is that states with restrictive marriage laws will prevent some teenagers from marrying who would have married young had they lived in a state with more permissive laws.Using the marriage, schooling, and labor laws affecting teens as instruments for early marriage and high school completion, I find strong negative effects for both variables on future poverty status. The baseline instrumental variables (IV) estimates imply that a woman who marries young is 31 percentage points more likely to live in poverty when she is older. Similarly, a woman who drops out of school is 11 percentage points more likely to be living in a family whose income is below the poverty line. The IV results are robust to a variety of alternative specifications and estimation methods, including limited information maximum likelihood (LIML) estimation and a control function approach. In comparison, the ordinary least squares (OLS) estimates are very sensitive to how the data is aggregated, particularly for the early marriage variable. OLS estimates using grouped data are also large, while OLS estimates using individual-level data indicate a small effect for early teen marriage. Auxiliary data indicate a large amount of measurement error in the early marriage variable, suggesting the presence of attenuation bias in the individual-level OLS estimates.The remainder of the article proceeds as follows. I first briefly review the negative outcomes associated with teenage marriage and dropping out of school and discuss alternative perspectives on why teens might make these decisions. The following section describes the data and presents OLS estimates. The next section discusses the early marriage, compulsory schooling, and child labor laws that will be used as instruments. I then present the instrumental variable estimates and conduct several specification and robustness checks, including a discussion of measurement error issues and a reconciliation with the literature on teenage childbearing.     

Pathways to Independent Living in Early Adulthood: Marriage,Semiautonomy, and Premarital Residential Independence

Data from the National Longitudinal Study of the High School Class of 1972 are used to examine factors influencing young adults' departure from the parental home and the initial pathways taken, including leaving home for marriage, residential semi-autonomy (Semi), and premarital residential independence (PRI). Parents' education and continuing in school decrease the likelihood of leaving home via marriage and increase the likelihood of leaving home via Semi or PRI. All other factors considered affect all pathways out of the parental home in the same direction, but in differing magnitudes. The predominant influences on PRI are indicators of modern family values, whereas the predominant influences on leaving home for marriage are measures of resources, both those of the parents and those of the young adults.     

Challenges in Measuring the Sequencing of Life Events Among Adolescents in Malawi: A Cautionary Note

Using data from two rounds of the Malawi Schooling and Adolescent Survey, this research note examines consistency of retrospective reporting on the timing and sequencing of sexual initiation, school leaving, and marriage. The analysis, which compares reporting of events both within and between rounds, indicates substantial inconsistency in reporting of event sequences and highlights difficulties in measuring transitions to adulthood in sub-Saharan Africa with survey data.     

Cohabitation and family formation in Japan

This article documents the prevalence, duration, and marital outcomes of cohabiting unions in Japan. It then examines the correlates of cohabitation experiences and also describes differences in the family-formation trajectories of women who have and have not cohabited. Cohabitation has increased rapidly among recent cohorts of women, and cohabiting unions in Japan tend to be relatively short in duration and are almost as likely to dissolve as to result in marriage. Life table analyses demonstrate that the cumulative probabilities of marriage and parenthood within marriage are roughly similar for women who did and those who did not cohabit. The most notable difference is in the pathways to family formation, with women who cohabited more likely both to marry subsequent to pregnancy and to delay childbearing within marriage. Taken as a whole, these results suggest that cohabiting unions in Japan are best viewed as an emerging prelude to marriage rather than as an alternative to marriage or singlehood. We conclude with speculation about the likelihood of further increases in cohabitation in Japan and the potential implications for marriage and fertility.     

National Estimates of Cohabitation

Data from the 1987-1988 National Survey of Families and Households are used to provide national estimates of cohabitation trends and levels. The rapid increase since around 1970 is documented over both birth cohorts and marriage cohorts. Almost half of the persons in their early 30s and half of the recently married have cohabited. Changes in the proportion ever married are compared with changes in the proportion who have either married or cohabited. Much of the decline in marriage has been offset by increased living together without being married. The stability of unions of various types is compared. Cohabitations end very quickly in either marriage or disruption. About 60 percent of all first cohabitations result in marriage. Cohabiting unions and marriages preceded by cohabitation are much more likely to break up than are unions initiated by marriage. Multivariate analysis reveals higher rates of cohabitation among women, whites, persons who did not complete high school, and those from families who received welfare or who lived in a single-parent family while growing up.     

Family life course transitions and rural Household economy during China’s market reform

This article investigates the effect of family life course transitions on labor allocation strategies in rural Chinese households. We highlight three types of economic activity that involve reallocation of household labor oriented toward a more diversified, nonfarm rural economy: involvement in wage employment, household entrepreneurship, and/or multiple activities that span economic sectors. With the use of data from the China Health and Nutrition Survey (CHNS 1997, 2000, and 2004), our longitudinal analyses of rural household economic activity point to the significance of household demography, life course transitions, and local economic structures as factors facilitating household labor reallocation. First, as expected, a relatively youthful household structure is conducive to innovative economic behavior. Second, household entrances and exits are significant, but their impacts are not equal. Life events such as births, deaths, marriage, or leaving home for school or employment affect household economy in distinctive ways. Finally, the reallocations of household labor undertaken by households are shaped by local economic structures: in particular, the extent of village-level entrepreneurial activity, off-farm employment, and out-migration.     

Dynamics of contraceptive use and breastfeeding during the post-partum period in Peru and Indonesia

This paper examines the interaction between contraceptive use and breastfeeding in relation to resumption of intercourse and duration of amenorrhea post-partum. We used data from the month-by-month calendar of reproductive events from Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) in Peru and Indonesia. The analyses show that breastfeeding women were less likely than non-breastfeeding women to have resumed sexual intercourse in the early months post-partum in both countries. In Peru, but not in Indonesia, breastfeeding women had a significantly lower odds than non-breastfeeding women of adopting contraception. Although the likelihood of contraceptive adoption was highest in the month women resumed menstruation in both countries, about ten per cent of subsequent pregnancies occurred to women before they resumed menses. These results emphasize the importance of integrating breastfeeding counselling and family planning services in programmes serving post-partum women, as a means of enabling those who wish to space their next birth to avoid exposure to the risk of a pregnancy that may precede the return of menses.     

中国30年早婚变化分析--基于“六普”数据

文章使用第六次全国人口普查数据对1980年以来的早婚率进行了分析，发现30年来早婚率经历了从急剧升高到逐渐下降又到部分省份升高的过程，早婚率由女性高于男性转变为男性高于女性；总体上农村地区的早婚率高于城镇，受教育程度越低的群体中早婚发生率越高，当前男性早婚现象更多发生在部分东中部地区和西部地区，女性早婚现象更多发生在西部地区。进一步分析认为，导致早婚的根源是民间传统习俗在部分人群受教育程度低、性别比失衡、青少年性意识萌动但性教育滞后以及基层服务缺位和基层管理弱化等因素作用下的结果。     

The family planning work as suggested by analysis of the age at first marriage in Jiaxing Prefecture, Zhejiang Province]

Since 1970 when the big push for family planning began, China advocated late marriages. In general, the age for late marriage for female peasants is 23 years and 25 for males; for urban females and males, it is 25 and 27 years, respectively. In 1981 the New Marriage Law stipulated the age at marriage to be 20 years for females and 22 for males (these ages are lower than the ages advocated for marriage in actual practice). Despite the New Marriage Law, however, there was in 1981 an increase in the number of people who married before attaining the "late marriage age," thereby creating problems in family planning work. Since 1981, early marriages have been an increasing phenomenon (for the purposes of this essay, age at early marriage is 23 years for females and 25 for males). Jiaxing Prefecture had a 460.53% increase from 1979 to 1981 in the number of women who married early. The following findings were based on studies of Tungxiang and Pinghu Countries. Early marriages as well as "regular" marriages have increased greatly, with early marriage exceeding the number of other marriages. Urban marriages are far more moderate in number than rural marriages, partly because family planning work in urban areas is more effective. Early marriage in areas where family planning work was effective is less extreme than in areas where family planning work was ineffective. Findings from Kayuan Commune of Tungxiang County shows that 47.8% of all male marriages in 1981 were early marriages, as opposed to 6.3% in 1980. The average age for men at marriage in 1981 was 1.6 years younger than in 1980, and .75 years younger for females. Undoubtedly the New Marriage Law influenced the trend in early marriages, but the main reason is that the agarian economy is backwards. Further, traditional attitudes (e.g., "the sooner the children come the sooner the riches come") prevail.     

Early traces of the Second Demographic Transition in Bulgaria: A joint analysis of marital and non-marital union formation, 1960–2004

We explore trends in first-union formation in Bulgaria from 1960, using data from the national Gender and Generations Survey of 2004. We analyse jointly the transition into cohabitation and directly into marriage. The standardized marriage rate falls dramatically from the early 1980s; the corresponding rate of entry into cohabitation has already increased from the early 1960s but (surprisingly) falls moderately toward the end of our period. Cohabitation also tends to last progressively longer in more recent periods. The analysis shows that a pregnancy leads to a dramatic increase in the rate of both kinds of union formation: the increase is by a factor of almost 20 for marriage formation and about 10 for entry into cohabitation, ceteris paribus. Our findings suggest that, in Bulgaria at least, some manifestations of the Second Demographic Transition can be detected as early as the 1980s.     

Early traces of the Second Demographic Transition in Bulgaria: a joint analysis of marital and non-marital union formation, 1960-2004

We explore trends in first-union formation in Bulgaria from 1960, using data from the national Gender and Generations Survey of 2004. We analyse jointly the transition into cohabitation and directly into marriage. The standardized marriage rate falls dramatically from the early 1980s; the corresponding rate of entry into cohabitation has already increased from the early 1960s but (surprisingly) falls moderately toward the end of our period. Cohabitation also tends to last progressively longer in more recent periods. The analysis shows that a pregnancy leads to a dramatic increase in the rate of both kinds of union formation: the increase is by a factor of almost 20 for marriage formation and about 10 for entry into cohabitation, ceteris paribus. Our findings suggest that, in Bulgaria at least, some manifestations of the Second Demographic Transition can be detected as early as the 1980s.     

Welfare Exit,Marriage, and Welfare Recidivism: A Reevaluation of Patterns of the 1980s and 1990s

We examine the relationship between marriage and welfare recidivism for women leaving a first welfare spell, using the 1979–2000 panels of the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY). Previous studies have found that women who marry around the time of welfare exit have lower rates of welfare return than women who stay single. However, more marriages occur before or after welfare exit than occur at the time of welfare exit. We find that marriages that precede or follow welfare exit by more than 12 months are not associated with significantly lower rates of welfare return. We also confirm previous findings that marriages formed within a year of welfare exit are associated with reduced rates of welfare return. However, these reduced rates mostly indicate later welfare returns rather than fewer welfare returns. Overall, our findings indicate a much weaker association between marriage and welfare independence than has been previously reported for this time period.     

Remarriage,Delayed Marriage,and Black/White Intermarriage, 1968–1995

How have changes in marriage order and marriage timing affected 1968–1995 trends in United States Black/White intermarriage? Researchers usually follow a one-sex perspective on the effects of timing and marriage order on marital selection, arguing that delayed marriages and remarriages will be more heterogamous than early or first marriages. This paper shows that a one-sex perspective is oversimplified and that assortative marriage with respect to race depends on the interaction of both husband’s and wife’s characteristics. Marriages that match with respect to age or marriage order tend to also match with respect to race. First marriages and remarriages for both partners are more likely to be same-race marriages. Marriages that are intermarriages with respect to marriage order are more likely to also be intermarriages with respect to race. Marriages that are usual age combinations (husband and wife similar in age or husband slightly older) are also usual race combinations (husband and wife same race). Marriages that are unusual age combinations are more likely to be racial intermarriages. This paper also shows that trends in remarriage patterns do not account for the increasing trend in racial intermarriage and that trends in marriage timing have actually slowed increases in racial intermarriage.