Presidential Popularity and Presidential Elections: An Update and Extension

The popularity of the president as ascertained months priorto a presidential election permits an accurate prediction ofthe election outcome, even when the incumbent president is notrunning for reelection.     

Question-Order Effects on Presidential Popularity

A methodological experiment is conducted on the same questionthat is used virtually every month in the Gallup Poll to measurepresidential popularity. The point of the experiment is to determinewhether presidential popularity is affected by the placementof the question within the survey, in response to a recent chargethat alternations in the order in which this question has beenasked invalidate time-series analyses of presidential popularity.The primary finding is that the order in which the questionis presented does not significantly affect the direction ofresponse (the balance between approval and disapproval), butit does affect opinionation (the willingness to make a directionalresponse, whether positive or negative). This effect is foundto be particularly pronounced for less educated respondents.The implications of these findings for time series analysisof presidential popularity are spelled out.     

Economic Influences on Presidential Popularity

Gallup data indicating presidential popularity from 1950 to1974 are analyzed in a distributed lag model which tests theimportance of key economic influences. Results indicate thatinflation and military expenditures are statistically significantand politically important influences on presidential popularity.The success of this model in revealing hitherto undetected economicinfluence calls into question the nonfindings of previous simplelinear analyses and suggests the need for more sophisticatedmodels which provide, through the use of time lags and cumulativeimpacts, a more complex pattern of economic influence on presidentialpopularity.     

The Impact of Cell Phone Noncoverage Bias on Polling in the 2004 Presidential Election

Despite concerns that the accuracy of preelection telephonepolls would be harmed by the omission of voters who could bereached only by cell phone, most national polls performed wellin predicting President George W. Bush’s reelection in2004, and state polls were generally accurate as well. The nationalexit poll conducted by the National Election Pool found that7 percent of Election Day voters had cell phone service butno land line; younger voters were far more likely to be cell-only:19 percent among those age 18–24 and 20 percent amongthose age 25–29. Within these two youngest age cohorts,cell-only voters were significantly more likely to be singleand childless. While cell-only voters were more supportive ofJohn Kerry than voters overall, they were similar to other voterswithin their own age cohort. Because of this, preelection telephonesurveys that weighted their data appropriately by age were notsignificantly biased by the absence of the cell-only voters.     

EVIDENCE ON ELECTORAL ACCOUNTABILITY IN THE U.S. SENATE: ARE UNFAITHFUL AGENTS REALLY PUNISHED?

Many have questioned whether voters are able to hold incumbent officials electorally accountable through a retrospective voting strategy. We examine U.S. Senate elections from 1962 to 1990 in forty-one states, explaining which incumbents ran for reelection and their success in seeking reelection. We find that an incumbent's deviation from her state party platform decreases the probability that she will run for reelection and win if she runs. Furthermore, the electoral mechanism is found to be more efficient when voters are better informed. Finally, we find that our divergent party platform model provides a better fit than the median voter model.     

Expectation/Disillusion and Presidential Popularity: The Reagan Experience

The Sigelman-Knight analysis of the "expectation/disillusion"interpretation of recurring declines in presidential popularityis replicated with data on the Reagan presidency. There is aconnection between Reagan's popularity and expectations aboutwhat he would be able to accomplish, but (just as was the caseduring the Carter presidency, and directly counter to predictions)it was the more highly educated whose expectations of presidentialperformance were initially highest. Moreover, as time passedthe size of the education-based gap in expectations of Reaganincreased over time. These findings leave the expectation/disillusioninterpretation in considerable doubt.     

Change and Stability in Presidential Popularity at the Individual Level

This article employs a three-wave panel to examine change andstability in the popularity of the president. By survey standards,the item is found to be quite reliable, approaching the reliabilityof party identification. Change in the item can be predictedusing measures of political interest and sophistication, partisanship,and strength of presidential approval or disapproval.     

GOVERNMENT DEBT‐THRESHOLD CONTRACTS

Politicians tend to push the amount of public debt beyond socially desirable levels in order to increase their reelection chances. We develop a model that provides a new explanation for this behavior: office holders undertake debt‐financed public projects, but postpone the timing of part of the output to the next term. This makes it difficult to replace them. As a consequence, the office holders' reelection chances rise—as does public debt. As a potential remedy for this inefficiency, we allow candidates for public office to offer government debt‐threshold contracts. Such a contract contains an upper limit for government debt and the sanction that an office holder violating this limit cannot stand for reelection. We show that such competitively offered contracts contain low debt levels that limit debt financing and improve the citizens' welfare. When negative macroeconomic events occur, government debt‐threshold contracts may be violated, and the economy is stabilized. (JEL: D7, D82, H4)     

Testing the Permanence of the Permanent Campaign: An Analysis of Presidential Polling Expenditures, 1977 2002

Many presidential observers argue that the modern White Houseis the site of more-or-less permanent campaigning. In a recentPOQ piece, Murray and Howard (2002) [Public Opinion Quarterly66:527–558] explore one indicator of the "permanent campaign,"the extent to which Presidents Carter, Reagan, G.H.W. Bush,and Clinton commissioned independent opinion polls and focusgroups to assist in policymaking and political maneuvering.Murray and Howard suggest that while a sophisticated pollingoperation has been institutionalized in the White House, thereis substantial variation in how much a president uses this operation.In this article, we model presidential polling expendituresover time using monthly figures. We find that presidents donot vary significantly in the average amount spent per monthon polls. There are, however, two recurring patterns of variationwithin presidential administrations: Presidents tend to spendsignificantly more on internal polling during the most intensemonths of a presidential reelection campaign; and polling expendituresincrease over the course of each presidential term. These findingssuggest that there are common forces (e.g., elections, naturaldecline in support) that have driven all presidents since Fordto poll.     

Electoral competition, incentive contracts for politicians and unknown preferences

When reelection is uncertain, the election mechanism may provide insufficient incentives for politicians to implement socially desirable policies. In this paper, we show that threshold contracts that the candidates themselves offer during the campaign can help to alleviate the problem, even if the preferences of the candidates are unknown to the public. A threshold contract stipulates a policy space in which the implemented policy must lie for an elected candidate to have the right to stand for reelection.     

CAN THE PRESIDENT REALLY AFFECT ECONOMIC GROWTH? PRESIDENTIAL EFFORT AND THE POLITICAL BUSINESS CYCLE

Presidential elections are often seen as referendums on the health of the economy; however, little evidence exists on the president's ability to influence gross domestic product (GDP). This study examines the effect of the incentive to be reelected and the resulting increase in presidential effort on GDP growth. Growth is found to rise in reelection years for first‐term presidents after 1932 and to fall in election years before 1932, when reelection was uncommon, and for second‐term presidents generally. This effect is largest for high‐quality presidents—who probably have the highest return to effort—and is spread across multiple sectors of the economy. (JEL D78, D72, E32, J24)     

Reliability of the JobFit System Pre-Employment Functional Assessment Tool

Functional capacity testing in the pre-employment or post-offer phase of recruitment is increasing in popularity as a preventative tool for controlling sprains and strains in the workplace. The purpose of this study is to determine the reliability of the JobFit System Pre-Employment Functional Assessment (PEFA) as a whole, or in parts, as a precursor for a validity study investigating the relationship between PEFA results and workplace injury rates and severity. A group of 28 healthy male coal mine employees were videotaped whilst they participated in a generic JobFit System Pre-Employment Functional Assessment (PEFA) including tests of aerobic physical fitness, balance, postural tolerances and material handling tolerances. Twenty participants performed a second trial. The test component scores and overall PEFA scores were compared between trials (test-retest, intra-rater) and assessors (inter-rater) to determine their reliability expressed in terms of ICC. Using an ICC score of > 0.75 as good and > 0.90 as excellent, in conjunction with percentage agreement a good to excellent reliability rating was allocated to the overall PEFA score, floor to bench lift, bench to overhead lift, bilateral carry and climbing. A moderate to good rating was recorded for bench to shoulder lifts, reaching forward, reaching overhead and stooping. A poor to moderate rating was recorded for squatting, balance and fitness tests. Test-retest scores were typically lower than intra-tester and inter-tester scores. ICC scores should be interpreted with consideration of their limitations and in conjunction with the actual test results.     

Presidential Popularityand Presidential Elections

Current Research This section of POQ is reserved for brief reportsof research in progress, discussions of unresolved problems,methodological studies, and public opinion data not extensivelyanalyzed or interpreted. Succinct case histories are welcomed,as well as hypotheses and insights that may be useful to otherstudents of public opinion. Usually, materialin this sectionis shorter, more informal, and more tentative than in precedingpages.     

DEMOCRATIC INCUMBENTS AND THE 1984 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: A CASE STUDY

This article examines the advantages a single Democratic incumbentutilized to win reelection in 1984 despite an overwhelming victoryby Ronald Reagan at the top of the ticket in the congressionaldistrict. The incumbent won reelection because of two typesof ticket splitting: Republican-inclined voters who voted forRepublican candidates for president and U.S. Senate and splitto vote for the Democratic incumbent for Congress, and Democraticvoters who supported Democratic candidates for U.S. Senate andCongress but split to vote for Ronald Reagan for president.Ticket splitting was found to be associated with basic politicalorientation—weak Republican and independent voters splitin favor of the Democratic incumbent and were far less likelyto vote a straight ticket for either party. Support for theDemocratic incumbent was explained in nonideological terms andwas based upon high recognition and favorability, constituentservice, voting record, and personal familiarity. For the Republicanchallenger, who never achieved a high level of recognition (despitesignificant campaign expenditure), support came almost solelyfrom the most partisan Republican members of the electorateand was based simply upon the party affiliation of the Republicanchallenger.     

A POSITIVE THEORY OF DISCRETIONARY POLICY, THE COST OF DEMOCRATIC GOVERNMENT AND THE BENEFITS OF A CONSTITUTION

We offer an explanation of government's preference for discretionary policy action. The main elements are asymmetric information and the ability and desire of governments to maximize reelection prospects. Discretionary policy imposes a social cost. We show that the cost is eliminated if all voters have the same information as the government. An optimal, state contingent policy rule that precommits government through a constitution eliminates the cost by removing government's opportunities to exploit its informational advantage. Rules of this kind, and constitutional restrictions, are difficult to enforce in the presence of uncertainty and different information available to government and the public.     

ATTENDANCE RATES, POLITICAL SHIRKING, AND THE EFFECT OF POST-ELECTIVE OFFICE EMPLOYMENT

Most economists agree that opportunistic behavior by politicians is limited by the threat of reelection. By implication, the level of shirking should be the greatest when a politician decides to leave office. This paper seeks to learn whether shirking can be reduced when opportunities exist for political parties andlor constituencies to fnfect a shirking politician's post-elective career or the careers of his children. Shirking is found to be completely eliminated only in the case where both the retiring congressman and his offspring continue to be employed in government andlor lobbying fnter the congressman leaves elective office.     

From aspiring presidential candidate to accidental racist? An analysis of Senator George Allen's image repair during his 2006 reelection campaign

This study analyzes how Senator Allen responded to the negative public relations incidents that occurred during his 2006 reelection campaign. Through a content analysis of Allen's media releases and interviews with Allen's communication staffers this study identifies Allen's image repair discourse strategies and tactics. This study also evaluates the effectiveness of these strategies and tactics through a content analysis of the newspaper coverage Finally, this study identifies three new image repair tactics.     

Children's facial and gestural decoding and encoding: Relations between skills and with popularity

This study examined preschool children's decoding and encoding of facial emotions and gestures, interrelationships between these skills, and the relationship between these skills and children's popularity. Subjects were 34 preschoolers (eighteen 4-year-olds, sixteen 5-year-olds), with an equal number of boys and girls. Children's nonverbal skill was measured on four tasks: decoding emotions, decoding gestures, encoding facial emotions, and encoding gestures. Children's popularity was measured by teacher ratings. Analyses revealed the following major findings: (a) There were no age or gender effects on performance on any of the tasks. (b) Children performed better on decoding than encoding tasks, suggesting that nonverbal comprehension precedes production. Also, children appeared better at facial emotion skills than gesture skills. There were significant correlations between decoding and encoding gestures, and between encoding gestures and encoding emotions. (c) Multiple regression analyses indicated that encoding emotions and decoding gestures were marginally predictive of popularity. In addition, when children's scores on the four tasks were combined via z-score transformations, children's aggregate nonverbal skill correlated significantly with peer popularity.Portions of this paper were presented at the meeting of the American Psychological Society, San Diego, CA, June, 1992. We thank the Child Study Center of Wellesley College, Janine Jarrell, Jennifer Mascola, and David Mills for their cooperation, and Carlene Nelson, Mark Runco, and Ed Stearns for statistical support. We also appreciate the valuable suggestions from Robin Akert, Annick Mansfield, the anonymous reviewers, and especially the guest editor.     

Presidential Coattails in 1972

Because Richard Nixon's overwhelming victory in the 1972 presidentialelection was not accompanied by any significant increase inRepublican representation in Congress, it has been assumed thathis coattails were exceedingly short. However, analysis of severalkinds of evidence suggests that such an assumption is prematureand that Nixon's pulling power has been underestimated. An explanationof the failure of Republican gains to materialize as congressionalseats may be found in the competitive disadvantages sufferedby Republicans in a period of increasingly safe seats.     

Inflation and Presidential Popularity

Current Research: This section of POQ is reserved for brief reports of researchin progress, discussions of unsolved problems, methodologicalstudies, and public opinion data not extensively analyzed orinterpreted. Succinct case histories are welcomed, as well ashypotheses and insights that may be useful to other studentsof public opinion. Usually, material in this section is shorter,more informal, and more tentative than in preceding pages