企业景气状况与宏观经济运行

本文对中国人民银行5000户工业企业景气问卷调查结果进行了系统的实证分析 ,在全面考察各项景气调查指标的汇总量化指数DI的基础上 ,分别建立了综合反映企业景气状况变动特征的企业景气指数———先行、一致和滞后合成指数 ,并据此分析了企业景气状况与GDP、工业生产、投资、消费和物价等主要宏观经济指标的相关性 ,从而为政府部门及时、准确地判断和预测经济形势 ,深入探讨经济周期波动的微观起因提供有价值的信息 ,并且为企业景气调查制度的修订和完善提供必要的依据     

心中有数

截至6月25日。浙江新设民营企业共6．38万户。同比增长10．67％。新设企业注册资金达1490亿元。同比增长46％。景气指数远高于2008年金融危机时景气指数的最低值。     

中经指数与景气

10月30日，由经济日报社中经产业景气指数研究中心和国家统计局中国经济景气监测中心共同研究编制的2012年三季度中经产业景气指数正式发布。数据显示，三季度，工业及重点产业景气度回落幅度明显收窄，正处于向筑底企稳转变的过程之中。     

危机管理——企业家的必修课

面对国际金融危机所带来的巨大影响和强烈冲击．企业景气指数和企业家信心指数双双回落。据北京市统计局、国家统计局北京调查总队日前公布的调查数据显示，到2008年底，北京企业景气指数已下滑到2003年以来的最低点108．9．     

2012，中国楼市往何处去——2012年，中国房地产市场将如何发展

“限”字当头的调控下，中国房地产行业全面“人冬”。国家统计局1月18日发布的数据显示，2011年12月，全国房地产开发景气指数为98．89，连续7个月下滑，创近28个月以来新低。     

市场营销双语教学现状分析及对策——以南京信息工程大学经济管理学院为例

本文定义了市场营销双语教学的内涵，分析了市场营销双语教学的实施的必要性和可行性，进而对南京信息工程大学经济管理学院开展市场营销双语教学进行了SW分析并评价实施状况，阐述了目前存在的问题，并且提出改革对策。     

四川省宏观经济景气预警分析（1990.2）

经济景气预警分析是通过对景气指标的处理，用构造景气指数方法来描述和预测总体经济增长波动的峰谷点和总体经济发展的景气程度，自本世纪初景气指数的雏形－－美国哈佛指数建立以来，这种预测方法受到大多数国家和地区的重视，目前在国外已有广泛应用。美国商务部、日本企划厅定期公布全国景气指数变动情况；欧共体“经济发展与合作”组织均建立了本系统的景气监测指数。美国经济研究局和美国经济循环研究中心已研制出包括美、日、德、法等10多个国家在内的世界经济景气指标，构造国际景气指数；亚洲的许多国家和地区（包括香港、台湾）也建立了自己的景气指数。我国研制和应用景气指数仍处于初创阶段，1987年3月原国家经委信息中心和吉林大学经研所首次完成了全国经济景气指数的制作。1988年由本文作者文德华主持的四川省工业经济景气指数应用课题通过了省科委组织的课题评审，补充专家评价为“达到国内先进水平”。1989年4月“首次全国经济景气指数预警方法培训班”在成都举办，为推动这项工作，在更大范围内的开展做了理论和方法上的准备。目前国家信息中心、中国人民银行总行已着手应用研究，部分省市已完成研究。为加强宏观经济短期监测，把握总体经济的运行状况，搞好宏观调控，文德华同志在完成四川省景气指数应用课题基础上，应本刊之约，定期为本刊进行月度的景气预警分析，本刊从这期开始开辟专栏，每月定期刊出四川省宏观经济景气预警分析的月度报告，以供.参考。     

东北地区房地产业的发展状况与建议

2008年,受国际金融危机和国内经济回调的影响,我国主要城市的房地产业进入调整期,房屋销量大幅度下降、房价略有回落。房地产业急剧降温引起中央的高度重视。2008年末,中央和地方政府陆续出台了一系列有利于房地产市场调控发展的利率、信贷和税收政策,房地产开发景气指数在经历了一年多振荡后开始回升。至2009年一季度末,全国房地产市场开始“回暖”,一些城市的房屋成交量止跌上升。     

2005年下半年中国经济的走势、问题与对策

在2003年底至2004年初国家实施的一系列宏观调控政策的影响之下，我国经济增长现处于增幅减速阶段，但也出现了一些新问题，同时针对经济走势的争论迭起。面对各类错综复杂的新形势，本文结合经济景气指数分析方法，对先行指数、综合预警指数运行轨迹进行观测，在此基础上分析我国2005年下半年宏观经济走势．并提出相应的政策建议。     

努力为武汉城市圈“两型”社会建设衢——黄石黄金山“两型”社会先行区创新服务项目建设行政管理体制探索与思考

2006年6月,黄石经济技术开发区黄金山“两型”社会先行区成立,四年多来特别是2009年7月中标武汉城市圈改革试验项目以来,该区紧紧围绕“打造先行区、全省作示范”的目标,坚持在创新行政管理体制机制上先行先试,大胆探索,大力促进“两型”产业发展,建立引进“两型”项目的准入和扶持、推进“两型”项目建设的统筹协调和督办考核等机制,引进实施项目120个、总投资200亿元,发展成为“四基地一示范”,即国家新型工业化示范基地、     

Analysing and Forecasting Business Cycles with the Aid of Economic Indicators

This paper provides a survey of the development and role of economic indicator analysis in measuring and analysing business cycles. Our major objective is to highlight the usefulness of leading and coincident indexes of economic activity, both for forecasting purposes and as an aid to macroeconomic policy. We show that the analysis of business cycles can be facilitated by distinguishing between classical cycles (which involve fluctuations in the level of aggregate economic activity) and growth cycles (recurring fluctuations in the rate of growth of economic activity around its trend). Many recent theoretical and empirical studies have concentrated on deviations from trend (that is, growth cycles) to the exclusion of classical cycles. We also argue for the use of a range of indicators, combined in a composite index, rather than using a single series such as gross domestic product as a proxy for the business cycle. We illustrate our survey with empirical evidence on the business cycles of the United States and Australia.     

MRP-WSCI: Multiple reference point based weak and strong composite indicators

The construction of composite indicators is becoming an increasingly important way of managing great amounts of information obtained from multiple single indicators. Obviously, the aggregation of several indicators in a single synthetic measure always implies some loss of information on the way. For this reason, this aggregation must be done in the most informative possible way, so that the results obtained can be easily interpreted, and in an efficient way, so that the information contained in the composite indicator is maximal. In this paper, we propose a novel methodology based on the multicriteria reference point scheme. The decision maker can establish any number of reference levels for each indicator, and the final outcome can be interpreted in terms of the position with respect to these levels. Besides, two different aggregations are proposed: the weak indicator, allowing for full compensation among the single indicators, and the strong indicator, not allowing for any compensation. The joint visualization of both composite indicators provides valuable information that may be unnoticed using other existing approaches. The approach is illustrated using an example based on the EU-Regional Social Progress Index (EU-SPI).     

财政分权体制对劳动力转移影响的实证分析

基于政府支出内生经济增长理论,探讨地级市政府财政自主程度对于服务行业分行业劳动力流动的影响,将行业劳动力变更细分为跨地区和跨行业两类指标,结合2004年至2011年中国城市统计年鉴构建的面板数据,在区分面板数据类型基础上分别采用固定效应模型或随机效应模型研究财政分权体制下这两类指标的变化。研究结果表明,在控制一系列影响因素后,地方财权的扩张只对交通、仓储及邮电、房地产和租赁商务以及服务行业劳动力流入产生正向影响,而批发零售、住宿餐饮、金融和信息行业在地方财权扩张时就业空间受到一定的挤压,导致本地劳动力流出。在跨行业的劳动力流动问题中,受地方财权扩张正向影响的行业为房地产、金融和租赁商务,其他行业则会由于地方政府财税自主权的提升造成就业萎缩;此外,地方政府财权自主程度提升会加剧地区及行业间劳动力的流动。     

循环修正思路的经济评价模型及实证研究——基于14个省级行政区

根据“坚持以人为本,全面、协调、可持续的发展观”的科学发展观的内涵,首先,进行经济指标的海选、筛选及指标体系的构建;然后,运用循环修正原理对AHP、G1客观方法和变异系数法、离差法客观方法的评价结果组合修正,在此基础上建立了基于科学发展观的循环修正的经济综合评价模型;最后,运用所建立的模型对我国14个省级行政区进行实证研究,并提出了政策建议。     

Why income inequality indexes do not apply to health risks

Several recent papers have sought to apply inequality measures from economics, such as the Atkinson Index (AI) for inequality of income distributions, to compare the risk inequality of different mortality risk distributions in an effort to help promote efficiency and environmental justice in pollution-reducing interventions. Closer analysis suggests that such applications are neither logically coherent nor necessarily ethically desirable. Risk inequality comparisons should be based on axioms that apply to probabilistic risks, and should consider the multidimensional and time-varying nature of individual and community risks in order to increase efficiency and justice over time and generations. In light of the limitations of the AI applied to mortality risk distributions, it has not been demonstrated to have ethical or practical value in helping policymakers to identify air pollution management interventions that reduce (or minimize) risk and risk inequity.     

Identification and selection of environmental performance indicators: Application of the balanced scorecard approach

The popular “balanced scorecard” system can be applied in the selection and development of environmental performance indicators. As presented, the balanced scorecard integrates environmental performance within the context of corporate strategic objectives. The basic premise of the balanced scorecard is that the ultimate corporate objectives commonly targeted by senior management such as economic value-added, net income, return, on equity, and return on assets are of little use in day-to-day dicision-making or in the motivation of employeesRather than look ahead, these measures reflect the past and, therefore, are not closely linked with the immediate actions which might be expected to be associated with future performance improvements. To create incentives for future improvement in these long-term measures, we must develop “leading” measures, which can be easily monitored in the short term. Such an approach lends itself to the selection of environmental performance indicators which are most clearly associated with the firm's strategic goals.     

Future management research directions in nanotechnology: A case study

Leading experts believe that advances in nanotechnology will lead to dramatic changes in the way materials, devices and systems are understood and created. Generalizations about nanotechnology-based innovations abound in technical circles and in the media, where they are typically described as radical, their anticipated impact on firms as disruptive, and their effect on society as transformative. To-date, no articles have been published in peer-reviewed technology management research journals on the subject. This paper suggests that nanotechnology is a general purpose technology and that, as such, its applications will spread through many economic sectors with varying magnitudes and forms of impact on existing firms and industries. This paper also demonstrates how the innovation management literature can be used to guide further research aimed at anticipating the magnitude and nature of the impact of specific nanotechnology-based innovations.     

基于持续竞争能力观的EVA改进

作为业绩衡量的指标,EVA的目的是为了起到更好的激励作用。但实际中却频频起到相反的效果--EVA的激励使经理人不断缩减经营规模。针对上述问题,本文在运用经济学理论对EVA这种业绩评价方式进行深入分析基础上,从持续竞争能力培养的角度提出了EVA的改进方法。     

基于变异系数-AHP的经济评价模型及中国十五期间实证研究

根据坚持以人为本,全面、协调、可持续的发展的科学发展观的内涵,通过经济指标的海选、筛选和理性分析构建了经济综合评价指标体系。用客观赋权的变异系数法和主观赋权的AHP法组合确定指标最优权重,并利用灰色关联理论对指标进行评分,建立了基于科学发展观的经济综合评价模型,并对十五期间中国的经济状况进行实证分析。本文的创新与特色有四点:一是通过将可观测的人均准绿色GDP纳入评价体系间接反映了绿色GDP,解决了现阶段中国经济评价因绿色GDP指标的缺失而不能反映科学发展观的问题,改变了现有评价没有考虑经济增长对环境伤害的缺点;二是通过人均财政收入等人均经济成果占有量的评价,反映科学发展观以人为本的核心,摒弃了世界环境与发展委员会等权威机构在评价人均占有量的同时又评价经济总量的做法;三是通过可持续发展指标和经济结构的评价,反映科学发展观全面协调可持续的基本要求;四是通过GDP增长率、固定资产投资增长率等适中指标理想值标准的设定,解决了现有评价片面认为这些指标越大越好或越小越好的不合理问题。     

Understanding how balancing autonomy and power might occur in leading organizational change

Leading organizational change involves many leadership skills. The literature indicates that there is one basic underlying skill: the ability to form and use judgment that is informed by analysis and experience. The literature also indicates that constructing and implementing good judgment from analysis and experience requires discretion in terms of autonomy and power. However, the findings from a field study of leaders with strong reputations as change agents demonstrated that it was difficult for change agents to have both autonomy and power. This result introduces critical but underexplored dilemmas associated with balancing autonomy and power in leading change. This article argues that balancing might occur when change agents have learned to understand and handle the dilemmas, and it describes enabling conditions for this learning. Furthermore, a future research agenda is indicated.