连续创业导向下合作质量、任务关系对再次合作意愿的交互影响研究北大核心CSSCI

基于创业学习理论,以众创空间与孵化器中的创业团队为研究对象,探讨了合作质量对再次合作意愿的交互影响,分析了任务关系和团队信任对二者关系的调节效应。研究发现:团队创业过程中,结果质量和过程质量对再次合作意愿存在交互影响;任务关系对合作质量与再次合作意愿之间的关系存在差异影响,任务依赖显著调节了结果质量与再次合作意愿的关系,而任务独立对过程质量和再次合作意愿产生了显著的调节效果;信任介入了任务关系对再次合作意愿的交互影响关系,任务依赖则通过情感信任缓解了结果质量对再次合作意愿的消极影响。     

博弈者认知模式与合作意愿度分析

建立了无限合作博弈类型下的合作意愿度(DWC)运算模型,目的是研究博弈者不同的认知模式将会对博弈者的DWC值和收益率产生怎样的影响;突发事件和合作环境如何影响博弈者的DWC值.模拟了2人无限合作博弈的三种模式,得出主要结论:双方都是柔性思维的博弈者比双方都是刚性思维的博弈者获得的收益率较小;如果一方为柔性思维,另一方是刚性思维,则柔性思维博弈者能够获得较高的收益,而刚性思维博弈者却能获得较高的DWC值;如果博弈者都具有柔性思维功能,合作不会稳定与满意;在突发事件起决定作用的情况下,博弈双方的平均收益率和平均DWC值都要减小;博弈一方为柔性思维者,另一方为刚性思维是较好的一种合作模式.     

竞合视角下高技术企业创新联盟稳定性研究

从竞合的理论视角出发,运用演化博弈理论,通过构建高技术企业创新联盟成员企业竞合关系的演化博弈模型,分析信任度、互补度、风险系数以及合作创新贴现因子等因素对创新联盟稳定性的影响,并运用Matlab对上述因素的影响进行了数值仿真。结果表明,较高的信任度和互补度可以提高联盟成员间的合作意愿,保障联盟的稳定运行;较高的合作创新贴现因子通过降低联盟成员未来收益的不确定性,增强了合作伙伴间进行长期合作的信心,维持了联盟的稳定运行;由于较高的风险系数增加了合作创新的风险成本,导致联盟成员间合作关系可能演变为竞争关系,从而阻碍了联盟的稳定发展。最后,根据演化博弈分析结果提出了相关建议。     

由““开会睡觉”问题谈公共管理的绩效敏感性

<正>开会睡觉是一种常见的现象,许多地方甚至专门制定若干会议准则,对违者予以严厉惩戒。但是,惩戒并不能从根本上解决问题。一般而言,开会睡觉是因为听众在会议各个环节的权、责、利都被会议主导者强势代理了。权、责、利被代理,听众就不会和会议主导者达成一致的会议目标;目标不一致,就不会有合作的意愿;无合作意愿,则信息共享受阻;信息不共享,则导致群体惰性,最终导致会议低效甚至无效。"开会睡觉"现象揭示了普遍而不简单的组织运行绩效问题。     

企业合作性竞争策略分析

新的企业组织和管理形式不断出现,传统的决策论和博弈论已不能很好地描述,需要有分析合作与竞争策略的新方法.本文提出了一个在多人参与决策的合作竞争情况下分析决策者理性行为的一般性的决策框架,并用它对2人合作竞争情况进行建模;为了定量地描述合作竞争情况,引入了合作度的概念,并对合作度和决策者主观因素之间的关系进行了分析.     

基于分期付款的服务供应商合作意愿甄别研究

服务外包中信息不对称问题阻碍了服务外包的健康快速发展。服务需求商选择合适的服务供应商,并对服务供应商专用性人力资本进行有效的监督与激励是服务外包成功的先决条件。本文将分期付款方式引入到服务外包合同设计中,构建了信息不对称情况下服务供应商真实合作意愿的甄别模型,设计了有效分离不同类型服务供应商的报酬机制,并用实际案例验证了本模型的科学性与适用性,为服务需求商选择服务供应商提供了参考。     

合作学习构成要素及其动力机制

合作学习在教学中运用越来越广泛,但效果却不尽如人意.要想保证合作学习的有效运用,就应该满足群体成员间积极的相互依赖、面对面的交互作用、群体目标与个体责任的并存等基本要素,并在任务特点、群体构成、群体管理和结果评价等方面对学习过程进行规范.     

一个具有完全信息的动态合作博弈模型

本文针对一个具有完全信息的动态合作博弈模型建立了对非合作Nash均衡的最优反应的概念,并以此为基础构造了该联盟内成员之间所进行的合作对策的特征函数.提出了构造此类动态合作博弈新的最优解的原则,并建立了最优的合作行为方式、动态合作博弈新的最优解(PGN向量)及其算法.     

消费者心流体验对购买意愿的影响——基于品牌信任的中介效应

本文在对国内外现有研究的基础上,构建了消费者心流体验对购买意愿影响的研究模型,同时引入品牌信任中介变量,并实证检验了研究模型和假设。研究结果表明：心流体验对品牌信任和购买意愿有正向直接的影响;品牌信任在心流体验对购买意愿的影响关系中具有中介效应,品牌信任在购物愉悦性和专注度对购买意愿的影响关系中具有部分中介效应,而在控制感对购买意愿的影响关系中具有完全中介效应。     

合作参与度和嵌入度对合作效率影响研究——以中国医疗卫生领域内的PPP合作为例

以中国医疗卫生领域内的制药企业与非营利组织进行PPP合作为背景,运用不完全契约理论研究制药企业与非营利组织合作中的合作参与度和嵌入度对合作效率影响的研究.首先,通过构建合作参与度和嵌入度对合作效率影响的数学模型,并在模型推导的基础上提出了基本研究假设,进一步地对研究假设进行实证检验.研究结果表明,合作参与度和嵌入度会影响PPP合作中的企业的自利性投入和公益性投入水平,合理的合作参与度与嵌入度一方面能够保证企业选择较低的自利性投入和较高的公益性投入满足企业的激励相容条件,另一方面也能够提高PPP合作效率.     

集成博弈和多智能体的人群工作互动行为研究

基于进化博弈视角,对人群工作互动行为进行多智能体模拟研究.建立了收益和惩罚共享的群体工作收益博弈模型,考虑工作个体的个性决策特征,设计基于历史信息和个体决策特性的混合学习规则,并用多智能体方法对群体工作场景进行描述.在Repast类库基础上,用Ja-va实现该多智能体模拟系统.模拟结果表明:1)群体规模对宏观工作趋势影...     

集成CA与QSIM的非正式组织群体行为演化的定性模拟

集成QSIM(Qualitative SIMulation)算法和CA(Cellular Automata,即元胞自动机),提出一种非正式组织群体行为定性模拟方法。其中,用基于CA的方法描述了群体成员行为、成员人性特征和群体环境因素;在此基础上,根据QSIM的定性模拟思路,设计了群体行为后续状态转换方法、过滤器和模拟引擎,提出了忠诚-成本均衡概念,以设计过滤器;Visual Basic 6.0用来编程实现了本文的方法;通过八项实验设计,对本文方法进行了确认;应用中的模拟结果表明,本文方法能够做为非正式组织管理决策支持的虚拟实验工具。     

基于模糊判断矩阵信息确定专家权重的方法

本文对群组模糊判断矩阵集结过程中确定专家权重的问题进行了研究,建立了模糊判断矩阵的特征矩阵和求解群集结矩阵的最优化模型,通过矩阵之间距离度量判断信息自身逻辑一致性程度和群体相容性程度,给出一种基于专家判断信息的可信度计算其后验权重的方法,最后用算例予以说明.     

Understanding Mechanisms Underlying Peer Effects: Evidence From a Field Experiment on Financial Decisions

Using a high‐stakes field experiment conducted with a financial brokerage, we implement a novel design to separately identify two channels of social influence in financial decisions, both widely studied theoretically. When someone purchases an asset, his peers may also want to purchase it, both because they learn from his choice (“social learning”) and because his possession of the asset directly affects others' utility of owning the same asset (“social utility”). We randomize whether one member of a peer pair who chose to purchase an asset has that choice implemented, thus randomizing his ability to possess the asset. Then, we randomize whether the second member of the pair: (i) receives no information about the first member, or (ii) is informed of the first member's desire to purchase the asset and the result of the randomization that determined possession. This allows us to estimate the effects of learning plus possession, and learning alone, relative to a (no information) control group. We find that both social learning and social utility channels have statistically and economically significant effects on investment decisions. Evidence from a follow‐up survey reveals that social learning effects are greatest when the first (second) investor is financially sophisticated (financially unsophisticated); investors report updating their beliefs about asset quality after learning about their peer's revealed preference; and, they report motivations consistent with “keeping up with the Joneses” when learning about their peer's possession of the asset. These results can help shed light on the mechanisms underlying herding behavior in financial markets and peer effects in consumption and investment decisions.     

基于二元语义信息处理的一种语言群决策方法

针对解决具有语言评价信息的多指标群决策问题,提出了一种基于二元语义信息处理的 群决策方法. 该方法是采用近年来最新发展的二元语义概念对语言评价信息进行处理和运算, 它是依据传统理想点法的基本思想,通过计算每个方案与正、负理想点间的语义距离,最终确 定最优方案,使该方案最贴近正理想点和最远离负理想点. 该方法具有对语言信息处理较为精 确的特点,避免了以往采用的语言信息处理方法所带来的信息扭曲和损失. 最后给出了一个 算例.     

Using input—output models for planning in groups with considerable inter-company trading

In any group where a lot of inter-company trading takes place and where the member companies are allowed a degree of autonomy, conflicts of interest will arise. Actions taken by individual companies in their own best interest will, on occasion, be detrimental to the group as a whole. Furthermore, the accounts relating to a particular company will tell head office management very little about the through-group profitability of the products concerned. Nor will the usual accounts and statistics throw much light on the extent to which individual companies or processes depend on the group's main end markets, since in many cases these companies will be largely or partly concerned with supplying other members of the organization.It follows that in such groups an information system is needed which will not reflect the organizational structure of the enterprise—as do individual company accounts—but which will provide top management with an overall group view. It should also make a contribution, both towards resolving any conflicts of interest which might occur, and to improving the overall return on group assets employed.This article examines the role of the micro input–output model in this situation with particular reference to its application in areas where conflicts of interest between the group and its member companies are likely to arise.     

Fuzzy Risks and an Updating Algorithm with New Observations

Concerning the essence of risk, we suggest a new definition of risk: a scene in the future associated with some adverse incident. In many cases, risks are rather fuzzy for our perception because of the shortage of knowledge or information about the systems that determine the adverse incidents. We introduce a concept of fuzzy risk based on the new risk definition and fuzzy sets. And, in this article, we suggest a fuzzy average algorithm to update a fuzzy risk that stores all information from the original data. To illustrate the algorithm, we update a soft risk map of flood where the fuzzy risks are calculated using the interior-outer-set model.     

Two ways to handle dependent uncertainties in multi-criteria decision problems

We consider multi-criteria group decision-making problems, where the decision makers (DMs) want to identify their most preferred alternative(s) based on uncertain or inaccurate criteria measurements. In many real-life problems the uncertainties may be dependent. In this paper, we focus on multicriteria decision-making (MCDM) problems where the criteria and their uncertainties are computed using a stochastic simulation model. The model is based on decision variables and stochastic parameters with given distributions. The simulation model determines for the criteria a joint probability distribution, which quantifies the uncertainties and their dependencies. We present and compare two methods for treating the uncertainty and dependency information within the SMAA-2 multi-criteria decision aid method. The first method applies directly the discrete sample generated by the simulation model. The second method is based on using a multivariate Gaussian distribution. We demonstrate the methods using a decision support model for a retailer operating in the deregulated European electricity market.     

Getting tuned in to those who are different: The role of empathy as mediator between diversity and performance

We present a theoretical model on the processes that mediate and moderate the diversity-performance relationship. Past research on this topic—for example the categorization elaboration model (van Knippenberg et al. 2004)—has often focused on information elaboration as mediator. Complementing this cognitive perspective, we propose that group diversity can also stimulate group members to engage with each other emotionally, resulting in higher levels of empathy—an emotional state which arises from the comprehension and apprehension of fellow group members’ emotional state. Empathy, in turn, is likely to enhance performance through processes within a single group member and through processes between group members. At the core of the model lies the proposition that group- as well as individual-level empathy mediate the relationship between diversity of organizational units and the performance of individual members and groups at large (multilevel mediation). Furthermore, we specify moderating conditions for the relationship between diversity and empathy. Diversity beliefs and diversity climates are introduced as second-order moderators.