地震对房地产市场消费行为影响研究

本文从消费者行为的视角．研究了地震感知风险对房地产市场消费者行为产生的影响及其机制。实证结果表明．地震感知风险对房地产市场消费者的感知质量和感知价值具有负向影响;地震感知风险越高,消费者越可能感觉为现有商品房付出了过高的价格：地震感知风险通过感知价格间接引起后悔感．这种后悔感对感知价值具有负向影响：地震感知风险通过感知价值间接负向影响房地产消费者的再购与推荐意向。文章最后讨论了研究结果．并为灾后房地产市场的发展提供了建议。     

虚拟社区知识共享主体对首购意愿的作用机理研究

虚拟社区知识共享的匿名性和互动性特征使知识共享过程中共享主体的影响尤其显著.以有过虚拟社区知识共享经历的消费者为样本,探讨虚拟社区知识共享对消费者首购意愿的作用机理,分析知识共享主体特征对消费者感知风险的影响以及消费者感知风险对消费者首购意愿的作用;通过在网上论坛发放电子问卷、滚雪球和街头拦截的形式回收有效问卷366份,采用多元线性回归和层次线性回归对假设进行检验.研究结果表明,共享主体的特征可以划分为发送者专业能力、关系强度和发送者社区地位3个维度,这3个维度通过感知风险正向影响首购意愿,产品涉入度对共享主体与感知风险的负向关系产生显著的正向调节作用.该结论为企业在虚拟社区进行有效的口碑营销及危机公关提供决策支持.     

基于UTAUT模型的消费者网络购物影响因素研究

以UTAUT模型为基础,将绩效期望、努力期望、社会影响、感知风险、促成因素、消费者创新性作为核心变量,同时将网购频率、月可支配收入和消费者创新性作为调节变量,提出初始理论模型和假设,并采用结构化模型方法来进行验证。实证结果表明,绩效期望、促成因素、消费者创新性对消费者采纳网络购物具有正向影响,感知风险对消费者采纳网络购物具有负向影响,而努力期望、社会影响并不会正向影响消费者的网络购物意愿。另外,网购频率、月可支配收入、消费者创新性等三个调节变量对主要变量间的关系有或多或少的影响。     

扶贫标签对消费者购买意愿的影响--感知价值与客观信息披露的作用

基于信号传递、信息加工与消费者感知价值理论,构建以消费者感知价值为中介变量、以客观信息披露为调节变量的理论模型,探索扶贫标签与消费者购买意愿之间的作用机制。从实证分析可知:扶贫标签对消费者购买意愿的正向影响是显著的;在扶贫标签和消费者购买意愿的影响路径中,消费者感知质量和社会价值起到了完全中介作用;客观信息披露起到了负向的调节作用。     

媒体情绪、信息中心性与银行流动性风险北大核心CSSCI

本文从舆情和整体网络关联的交叉视角,回归分析媒体情绪与网络结构及其交互效应对银行流动性风险的影响机制。本文研究发现:在针对全体银行和非全国性商业银行时,媒体情绪指数与银行流动性风险显著正相关,但仅针对全国性商业银行时,消极媒体情绪指数和混合媒体情绪指数对银行流动性风险具有负向影响。网络信息中心性与银行流动性风险显著负相关,体现了网络效应对银行流动性风险的影响具有两面性。混合交互效应与消极交互效应对银行流动性风险具有显著负向影响,而积极交互效应对银行流动性风险具有显著正向影响。全国性商业银行对银行流动性风险的影响程度明显高于全体银行,但未显著强于非全国性商业银行。     

网络团购情景下价格折扣与购买人数对消费者冲动购买意愿的影响机制研究

随着电子商务的飞速发展,在线冲动购买已成为一种普遍的现象并开始引起研究者们的关注.论文基于S-O-R模型,研究网络团购情景下两个重要因素:价格折扣与购买人数如何通过影响消费者的购买情绪及感知风险,从而影响冲动购买意愿,并提出了冲动购买的形成机制模型.本研究通过一个眼动实验收集眼动数据和问卷数据对理论模型进行了检验.问卷数据的分析结果显示(1)价格折扣与购买人数都对消费者唤起感具有显著积极影响,但只有价格折扣对于消费者感知风险具有消极影响;(2)唤起感与感知风险都通过对愉悦感的积极/消极作用对消费者冲动购买意愿产生影响;(3)购买人数正向调节价格折扣对唤起感的正向作用.眼动数据的分析结果进一步支持了这些结论,并提供了可能的解释.     

组织行为对管理者感知心理契约违背的影响

本研究运用512个中国管理者样本检验了组织沟通、组织公正和人力资源管理行为对管理者感知心理契约违背的影响。研究发现组织沟通对管理者感知心理契约违背不存在显著影响；直接上司沟通对管理者感知管理型心理契约违背存在负向影响。对关系型心理契约违背存在正向影响；程序公正对管理者感知管理型心理契约违背有负向影响,对管理型和交易型心理契约违背有正向影响；人际公正对管理者感知管理型和关系型心理契约违背有负向影响；人力资源管理实践对管理者感知心理契约违背有负向影响。     

供应商专项投资与感知的合作风险:关系发展阶段与控制机制的调节作用研究

本文从供应商———制造商关系发展这一动态的角度探讨供应商专项投资与其感知合作风险之间的关系以及契约和关系规范的不同调节作用.通过对中国家电行业261对供应商与制造商的关系的问卷调查,采用因子分析和多元回归的方法对概念模型及假设进行验证.本文研究结果表明:(1)在不同的关系发展阶段供应商专项投资与其感知的合作风险有着显著的差异.(2)尽管契约和关系规范对供应商专项投资与其感知的合作风险间的正向关系有着负向调节作用,但在关系发展的不同阶段,这种调节作用也存在着显著的差异.本文对于认识和了解关系发展阶段中供应商专项投资带来的合作风险感知水平的变化以及两种不同控制机制调节作用的差异性具有重要的理论和现实意义.     

基于消费者视角的企业社会责任归因

基于归于理论,探讨消费者对企业社会责任行为归因对消费者响应的影响.通过对企业社会责任事件的实证调查,结果表明:企业社会责任行为的利他归因会正向影响消费者的企业态度和产品感知质量,而利己归因会负向影响企业态度和产品感知质量,并且企业社会责任行为归因经由企业态度、产品感知质量的中介,影响产品态度和购买意愿.研究结论有助于企业管理者正确开展企业社会责任活动,降低利己归因的负面影响.     

基于感知视角的非营利组织服务质量、捐赠效用对个人捐赠意愿影响研究

采用实证的方法验证非营利组织服务质量感知及捐赠效用感知2个构念的子维度结构,并对非营利组织服务质量感知、捐赠效用感知及其子维度与个人捐赠意愿的关系进行了分析。研究发现:非营利组织沟通质量、组织响应是个人捐赠者对非营利组织服务质量感知的2个子维度;显性效用、情绪性效用、家庭性效用是个人捐赠者对非营利组织捐赠效用感知的3个子维度;非营利组织的服务质量感知及其2个子维度包括沟通质量和组织响应正向显著影响个人捐赠意愿;捐赠效用感知负向显著影响个人捐赠意愿,其3个子维度中显性效用对个人捐赠意愿有显著的负向影响,情绪性效用和家庭性效用对个人捐赠意愿没有显著影响。     

房地产价格波动的微观传导效应研究——基于融资约束的视角

本文利用全国各省区及七十个大中城市房地产价格数据,匹配以上市公司的房屋和土地使用权数据,从微观层面考察融资约束在房地产价格传导机制中所发挥的作用及其经济后果.本文研究表明房地产价格波动对我国企业融资和投资行为具有显著的传导效应,其效应扩散程度主要取决于企业的融资约束状况,当企业所拥有的房地产价值上涨时,融资约束程度高的企业外部债务融资更多,具有更高的投资水平,表现出更强的过度投资倾向.本文进一步考察传导效应的资源配置后果,发现企业的绩效并未有实质性的改善,说明抵押资产价格传导效应可能存在负面经济后果.本文还发现,随着房地产价格的波动,融资约束程度高的企业也体现出更大的投资波动幅度,这说明融资约束有可能放大经济周期性波动程度,证实了Kiyotaki和Moore(1997)的理论推断.     

The Dynamics of Risk Perception: How Does Perceived Risk Respond to Risk Events?

This paper examines the relationship between perceived risk and experience. This research addresses the processes by which people learn about risk and choose among real life prospects with associated uncertainties, risks and benefits. By comparing the impact of acute risk events with that of chronic risk events on public perception of risk during and after the events, this research focuses on the learning processes that characterize what kinds of risk events alter the perception of risk. Comparing materialized hazards at existing facilities with the risks associated with potential facilities, this research addresses risk choices among real life prospects. This study uses a classic pre-post quasi-experimental design. Surveys conducted in the Spring of 1992 on perceived and acceptable risk in Odessa and La Porte, Texas were conducted prior to risk events. Respondents from that survey were re-interviewed in the Spring of 1993 after the risk events to form a panel design. This paper analyzes the affect of risk events on perceived risk and the implications of these experiences for public policy concerning technological risk. The empirical results suggest that the social processes that construct and maintain risk in the public eye are at least as important as, if not more important than, the physical and psychological dimensions of risk.     

Consumer Responses to Integrated Risk‐Benefit Information Associated with the Consumption of Food

The risk analysis of the health impact of foods is increasingly focused on integrated risk‐benefit assessment, which will also need to be communicated to consumers. It therefore becomes important to understand how consumers respond to integrated risk‐benefit information. Quality‐adjusted‐life‐years (QALYs) is one measure that can be used to assess the balance between risks and benefits associated with a particular food. The effectiveness of QALYs for communicating both positive and negative health effects associated with food consumption to consumers was examined, using a 3 × 2 experiment varying information about health changes in terms of QALYs associated with the consumption of fish (n = 325). The effect of this information on consumer perceptions of the usefulness of QALYs for describing health effects, on risk and benefit perceptions, attitudes, and intentions to consume fish was examined. Results demonstrated that consumers perceived QALYs as useful for communicating health effects associated with food consumption. QALYs communicated as a net effect were preferred for food products associated with negative net effects on health, while separate communication of both risks and benefits may be preferred for food products associated with positive or zero net health effects. Information about health changes in terms of QALYs facilitated informed decision making by consumers, as indicated by the impact on risk and benefit perceptions as intended by the information. The impact of this information on actual food consumption choices merits further investigation.     

Communicating Earthquake Preparedness: The Influence of Induced Mood,Perceived Risk,and Gain or Loss Frames on Homeowners’ Attitudes Toward General Precautionary Measures for Earthquakes

Despite global efforts to reduce seismic risk, actual preparedness levels remain universally low. Although earthquake‐resistant building design is the most efficient way to decrease potential losses, its application is not a legal requirement across all earthquake‐prone countries and even if, often not strictly enforced. Risk communication encouraging homeowners to take precautionary measures is therefore an important means to enhance a country's earthquake resilience. Our study illustrates that specific interactions of mood, perceived risk, and frame type significantly affect homeowners’ attitudes toward general precautionary measures for earthquakes. The interdependencies of the variables mood, risk information, and frame type were tested in an experimental 2 × 2 × 2 design (N = 156). Only in combination and not on their own, these variables effectively influence attitudes toward general precautionary measures for earthquakes. The control variables gender, “trait anxiety” index, and alteration of perceived risk adjust the effect. Overall, the group with the strongest attitudes toward general precautionary actions for earthquakes are homeowners with induced negative mood who process high‐risk information and gain‐framed messages. However, the conditions comprising induced negative mood, low‐risk information and loss‐frame and induced positive mood, low‐risk information and gain‐framed messages both also significantly influence homeowners’ attitudes toward general precautionary measures for earthquakes. These results mostly confirm previous findings in the field of health communication. For practitioners, our study emphasizes that carefully compiled communication measures are a powerful means to encourage precautionary attitudes among homeowners, especially for those with an elevated perceived risk.     

房地产价格波动与金融脆弱性:——基于中国的实证研究

最近的研究表明,房地产市场价格波动与金融脆弱性有着密切的联系。本文从房地产价格波动对金融脆弱性的影响这个视角,通过选取宏观经济面和微观金融两个层次的六个指标编制衡量我国脆弱性的指数,并建立向量自回归模型对房地产价格波动与金融脆弱性进行定量分析。实证结果表明:金融脆弱性与房地产价格波动存在着双向的因果关系;房地产价格波动在较短期内对金融脆弱性有一定负向影响,随后对其有正向影响;对于房地产价格波动的冲击,银行部门对其的反应更加敏感,且在较短期内房地产价格波动对宏观经济与银行部门有一定的积极影响,但是随后会加剧其脆弱性,且对宏观经济的影响程度相对较大。     

房价变动、产业转移与区域协调发展——以京津冀地区为例

构建房价-资本模型，分析房地产行业投资收益对工业再投资的影响，发现：地区间适当的房地产行业投资收益差异有利于工业企业从核心地区向边缘地区转移，差异较大则导致资本流向房价增长过快地区的房地产行业；若地区间房地产行业投资收益差异既定，较大的经济发展差距对产业转移起阻碍作用，激烈的市场竞争则起促进作用。利用京津冀地区13个城市的数据构建面板门限模型，验证了：（1）较低的房价增长率促进了北京市相对低效的资本向外转移，但是北京市与周边地区较大的经济发展差距又阻碍了该趋势。（2）核心区流出的资本优先向次发达地区转移，而落后地区则有被彻底边缘化的风险。为实现京津冀地区协调发展，一方面要加强对京津冀地区房价的宏观调控、防止房价过快增长；另一方面要制定针对边缘地区的优惠政策，引导非首都功能向周边转移。     

Risk Perception and Technological Development at a Societal Level

This article tests the hypothesis that the exposure to the threat to societies posed by the introduction of new technologies is associated with a normalization of risk perception. Data collected in 2000 by the International Social Survey Programme (ISSP) on environmental issues were used to explore this hypothesis. Representative samples from 25 countries were employed to assess the national levels of perceived threat to the environment associated with a series of technologies and activities. These values were correlated with economic indicators (mainly from the World Bank) of the diffusion of each of the technologies or activities in each country. Results indicate a negative association of risk perception with the level of technological prevalence (societal normalization effect) and a positive association with the rate of growth of the technology (societal sensitivity effect). These results indicate that the most acute levels of perceived environmental risk are found in those countries where the level of technological prevalence is low but where there has recently been substantial technological development. Environmental awareness is a mediator of the relationship between risk perception and the indices of technological diffusion. This result means that: (1) societal normalization of risk is not a direct consequence of prevalence of the technology, but is driven by awareness of technological development and that (2) societal sensitivity to risk is associated with lower levels of environmental awareness.     

中国房地产市场投机泡沫实证分析

由于对国民经济具有明显的乘数带动效应,因此房地产业既可以拉动经济增长,也可能导致经济过热,进而常常成为政府宏观调控的首选对象和是否成功的主要标志之一。本文对中国房地产市场发展概况进行了简要分析,介绍了有关泡沫的经济学基本理论和研究,以及中国房地产市场是否存在泡沫的争论。在此基础上,本文重新定义了房地产基本价值、投机泡沫和泡沫度,并利用中国房地产的相关数据,对中国房地产基本价值、投机泡沫和泡沫度进行了实际计算,得出了中国房地产泡沫已经产生、而且比较严重的结论,并解释了中国房地产投机泡沫产生的主要原因。最后,提出了挤出房地产泡沫的若干政策,并特别指出,地方政府对中央政府的有关政策能否“上令下达,不打埋伏”是挤出房地产市场泡沫的关键所在。     

Judgments of Personal and Environmental Risks of Consumer Products—Do they Differ?

Many psychometric studies have investigated judgments concerning personal risks from technologies, activities or consumer products, but only a few studies have included judgments of risk to the environment. Thus, little is known about this aspect of environmental risk perception, and whether it differs from personal risk perception. This study investigates risk judgments for 30 consumer products of various types such as herbal remedies, mobile telephones, genetically engineered drugs, or garden pesticides. A survey was conducted in two German cities: Leipzig and West Berlin. In total, 408 subjects evaluated the consumer products with regard to personal and environmental risk (and other risk-related aspects) and whether they would recommend the product to others. The findings show statistically significant differences between the mean values of perceived personal risk and environmental risk for most products. Despite these differences, the rank order of mean personal risk and environmental risk judgments for the products is quite similar. However, separate analyses for each product reveal that correlations between perceived personal and environmental risk vary strongly across products. Multiple regression analyses with personal and environmental risk judgments as predictors and product recommendation as criterion, run separately for each consumer product, show that it is mainly the judgment of perceived personal risk that explains product recommendation. Perceived risk to the environment adds little explanatory power. The study also explores differences in judgments of personal and environmental risk with regard to two sociodemographic variables: location (former East Germany vs. West Germany) and gender. Differences in both types of risk judgments are found with regard to location but not for gender.     

外部冲击视角下中国银行业和房地产业风险传染性测度

利用基于极值理论的VAR模型和CD模型,在检验了银行业及房地产业个体机构风险水平的基础上,研究了2个行业内及行业间的风险传染情况,并将房地产业与银行和其他行业间的风险传染特征进行比较。结果表明,房地产业发生风险的概率较大,危机后房地产业和银行业之间的传染性显著增加,并且银行业与房地产业之间的风险传染概率明显高于银行业与其他行业之间的风险传染概率。据此,提出了一系列政策建议,以增强对风险传染的防控能力。