Terror and trade of individual investors

A great number of psychological studies document the influence of emotions on individuals’ decision-making processes. This paper contributes to this literature by analyzing the possible impact of terrorism on financial trade by individual investors. Using account data for over 3000 households obtained from a large Israeli bank, we look into reactions of common stock investments to terrorist incidents in the years 1998–2002. The empirical analysis indicates that terror has a significant adverse effect on actual trade, possibly limiting the scope of risk-sharing available through traded securities. Several psychological explanations for investors’ reluctance to trade are provided. Amongst them are the increase in public fear (resulting in pessimistic risk estimates and risk averse choices); the sense of ambiguity caused by terror; repercussions of anxiety and depression disorders; a desire to avoid future regret. Our results add to the recent literature documenting the harmful effects terrorist acts have on various facets of the economy.     

Vertrauen und Reputationseffekte bei Internet-Auktionen

In internet auctions the exchange between two anonymous actors corresponds to a one-shot prisoner’s-dilemma-like situation. In such a situation there is a high risk that both actors will cheat and that the market will collapse. The solution to attaining mutual cooperation is the simple and very efficient institution of a public rating system. By this institution sellers have an incentive to invest in reputation in order to enhance future chances of business. Using data from about 200 auctions of mobile phones we analyse the effects of the reputation system by empirical methods. In general the analysis of non-obtrusive data from auctions may help to gain a deeper understanding of basic social processes of exchange, reputation, trust, and cooperation and of the impact of institutions on the efficiency of markets. In this study we report empirical estimations of the effects of reputation on characteristics of transactions like the probability of a successful deal, the mode of payment, and the largest bid or auction price. Particularly, we ask whether sellers receive a “premium” for reputation. Results show that buyers are ready to pay higher prices for reputation to diminish the risk of exploitation. On the other hand, sellers protect themselves against cheating by choosing of a proper mode of payment. Simple institutional settings lead to cooperation, relatively rare events of fraud, and efficient markets despite the risk of mutual opportunistic behavior.     

FUTURES MARKET BACKWARDATION UNDER RISK NEUTRALITY

J.M. Keynes first introduced the theory of normal backwardation in futures markets. In the language of (British) commodities markets, a backwardation is an excess of the spot price over futures prices. As is well-known, Keynes suggested that this might be explained as a risk premium. Less well known is that Keynes actually proposed two distinct theories of backwardation.
Of these two theories of backwardation, the latter has recently received much attention. The purpose of this paper is to formalize Keynes' first theory, his liquid stocks theory, with an eye to its eventual empirical test.
We follow the recent formalizations of the risk premium theory by assuming the existence of perfectly competitive asset markets. To emphasize the differences between the two theories, however, we assume that there are well-funded risk neutral investors. Thus, risk premia cannot explain backwardation under our assumptions. Instead, backwardations arise because of interactions between equilibrium in the commodities exchange, both in spot and futures trading, and the production, consumption and storage decisions taken on the real side of the economy.     

MARKET INSTITUTIONS, PRODUCT IDENTITIES, AND VALUATION OF CALIFORNIA PREMIUM WINES

This study develops an institutional approach to understand how market institutions differentiate the identities and statuses of products and producers and eventually affect the valuation of products. Quantitative and qualitative evidence drawn from the California premium wine market shows that category-based product attributes that signify exclusivity, comply with a high institutional standard, or indicate a high rank in the classification system enhance wine price. Moreover, these attributes have symbolic values in social consumption particularly in a high-tier market segment and do not necessarily function as credible quality signals. These findings reveal the institutional bases of the economic order and status hierarchy in markets and have broad theoretical implications.     

DID TARP DISTORT COMPETITION AMONG SOUND UNSUPPORTED BANKS?

This study investigates if the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) distorted price competition in U.S. banking. Political indicators reveal bailout expectations after 2009, manifested as beliefs about the predicted probability of receiving equity support relative to failing during the TARP disbursement period. In addition, the TARP affected the competitive conduct of unsupported banks after the program stopped in the fourth quarter of 2009. Loan rates were higher, and the risk premium required by depositors was lower for banks with higher bailout expectations. The interest margins of unsupported banks increased in the immediate aftermath of the TARP disbursement but not after 2010. No effects emerged for loan or deposit growth, which suggests that protected banks did not increase their market shares at the expense of less protected banks. (JEL G21, G28, L51)     

RBI’s Monetary Policy and Macroeconomic Announcements: Impact on S&P CNX Nifty VIX

This study investigates the information content of RBI’s monetary policy and macroeconomic announcements and its impact on the implied volatility index. The empirical findings suggest that implied volatility (VIX) increases prior to the scheduled macroeconomic announcements. This study takes into account the RBI’s (Reserve Bank of India) monetary policy in the form of monetary credit information review meeting days, consumer price index, wholesale/producers price index, index of industrial production, employment report, gross domestic product. The empirical result explains that investors regard the scheduled macroeconomic announcements in the valuation of their financial assets. More specifically study shows that investors jointly consider the MCIR and GDP reports for their financial planning. This study contributes in two ways; it is useful in the forecasting of short-term market volatility and pricing of Options.     

Corporate fraud,systematic risk,and shareholder enrichment

The impact of the disclosure of alleged illegal corporate activities together with the possible motives for their use increasingly has become the subject of research by financial scholars. These studies primarily analyze the disclosure’s effect on the market returns of the firm’s equity. The consensus of these studies is that the initial disclosure of alleged illegal corporate activities results in significant negative abnormal returns to the existing shareholders. The size of these abnormal returns generally exceeds the actual fines, fees and penalties that the firms eventually experience. The impact of these disclosures on systematic risk and their possible implications for managerial behavior and corporate policy have suffered from relative neglect. The present research seeks to establish what, if any, impact the disclosure of alleged corporate fraud has on systematic risk. Using the data set provided by Karpoff and Lott (1993, The reputational penalty firms bear from committing corporate fraud. J Law Econ, 34, 757–802), this research tests whether securities experience any significant beta shifts upon the initial disclosure of alleged corporate fraud. Empirical tests find evidence consistent with the theory that agents engage in illegal activity in an attempt to enhance share price. The empirical results also provide additional insight into the question of why corporations engage in criminal activity.     

From wage rigidity to labour market institution rigidity: A turning-point in explaining unemployment?

In this paper we offer a critical discussion about the concept of labour market rigidity in the light of recent theoretical approaches that have aimed to provide sound micro-foundations to the presence of unemployment in market economies. We point out that the concept of labour market rigidity usually referred to in such theories has changed over time, involving in succession the rigidity of wages, contracts and labour market institutions. We also appraise the factors that lead labour market institutions rigidity, stressed by the search literature, to challenge the more widespread explanation of unemployment grounded on wage rigidity. Moreover, we analyse some theoretical and empirical issues that cast doubt on the ability to deal with unemployment, disentangling the role of institutional rigidities from that of wage stickiness.     

Transparency in the European Bond Market

The European bond market is made up of many segments characterised by varying levels of liquidity and of pre- and post-trade transparency. The possibility of extending the transparency provisions envisioned in the Directive 2004/39/EC, disciplining the functioning of markets in financial instruments in Europe (MiFID), from the equity to the bond market is currently being discussed. This poses risks to the status quo through trading fragmentation and strong negotiating power of a few large dealers, particularly with respect to small retail investors. The main conclusion of the paper is that if MiFID transparency rules are to be extended to the bond market, this must be “real” transparency, meaning pre-trade dissemination of real-time executable prices and a transparent order book. Under current provisions, this kind of information is available if not directly to everybody, at least directly to dealers and indirectly to professional and retail clients through business-to-business electronic platforms.     

Do Market Returns Influence Risk Tolerance? Evidence from Panel Data

This study used the 1992?C2006 waves of the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) to investigate changes in risk tolerance levels over time in response to stock market returns. Findings indicate that risk tolerance tends to increase when market returns increase and decrease when market returns decrease. Individuals who change their risk tolerance in this manner are likely to invest in stocks when prices are high and sell when prices are low. Researchers, employers, financial educators and practitioners should help investors overcome the bias of overweighting recent news of market performance.     

CONTRACTING, CONTINGENCIES AND SINGLE-FAMILY HOUSE PRICES

This paper investigates the relationship between single-family house prices and contingent terms in contracts. Since contingencies create uncertainty, the market should exact a price premium. The results indicate that the contracting for property rights affects house prices in the predicted ways.     

The Value Relevance of Fair Value

This paper investigates the value relevance of revalued tangible assets and its variation depending on industry, size of the firm and age of revalued amounts. It examines the reaction of investors on the Romanian market, a developing market, in the period of economic growth between 2003 and 2007, before Romania’s adherence to the European Union. Also, it suggests a model which allows for the comparative analysis of the influence over share price attributed to two equity growth sources: revaluation reserves and operational profit. The findings confirm the central hypothesis of the study—revaluated amounts of tangible assets are value relevant—and verify the predictive and feedback value, timeliness, reliability, and the possibilities for fair value implementation, characteristics which have been selected for testing. However, the results are less consistent than the outcome of the variable which reflects the equity growth due to profit, which leads to a moderate value relevance of fair value in the case of revaluated tangible assets. The value relevance analysis on clusters verifies the established hypotheses regarding the superiority of value relevance for the manufacturing sector as opposed to the service sector and of revaluations older than 2 years compared to more recent revaluations. The hypothesis regarding higher value relevance of revaluated amounts disclosed by large firms compared to SMEs is not confirmed, as only the latter presented significant statistical values.     

The nature of individual investors' heterogeneous expectations

This article investigates whether heterogeneity in investors' perceptions of the risk/return characteristics of a particular stock and the stock market can be explained in terms of these investors' demographic characteristics (sex, age. income and education). Results indicate that these specific demographic characteristics are not particularly useful in differentiating among investors holding divergent opinions. Hut findings confirm previous results that investors' risk perceptions vary systematically and do not result simply from measurement error.     

Social Impact Bonds und der Disput um die Wohlfahrt

Social Impact Bonds are novel financial mechanisms for social welfare programs. What’s new about them is that they include professional financial investors into state provision of welfare. Its promise is to help states save public money in times of austerity by becoming more effective and selling their risk of failed social investments to the financial market. Against it, its critics see a further mode of capitalization of the public sphere (Landnahme). This article investigates Social Impact Bond s between the poles of de- and repolitization. On the one hand, the Social Impact Bond prevents public and democratic debates over welfare by means of privatization and methodical rationalization, on the other hand it addresses the welfare state and public expenditures to be important again. This is new, after decades of diminishing welfare states. Which sort of dispute the Social Impact Bond will bring about depends on the institutional context of its implementation.     

PRODUCER AND CONSUMER RESPONSES TO GREEN HOUSING LABELS

We find “green” labels increase residential property values by an average of 5%. This premium varies by label stringency and across market segments. Builders respond to the stringency of labels by strategically incorporating green features to achieve higher ratings. This strategy seems reasonable as there is no market premium for green features that lead to scores between label rating cutoff values. These results raise important questions as to how green label policies should be designed in order to foster the supply of green features. Gradations of green attributes are influential, particularly for highly rated homes. The most stringent labels have the greatest role at the high price end of the market. (JEL Q20, Q40, R31)     

ELECTRIC AND PLUG‐IN HYBRID VEHICLE DEMAND: LESSONS FOR AN EMERGING MARKET

Understanding demand in the new plug‐in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) market is critical to designing more effective adoption policies. We use stated preference data from an innovative choice experiment to estimate demand for PHEVs relative to battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and to explore heterogeneity in demand for these vehicles. We find the gap between willingness to pay for PHEVs and their price premium over conventional vehicles is on the order of current subsidies, while that of BEVs is an order of magnitude larger. We use a latent class model to show PHEVs draw a different consumer segment into the market. (JEL Q5, R41)     

Will Australian workers' compensation insurance management get better soon?

A study of Australian experience in the state of New South Wales (NSW) suggests that private sector underwriting of workers' compensation insurance risk plus insurer competition on premium price may put downward pressure on benefits for injured workers, inhibit rehabilitation, and cause related cost increases for taxpayers and employers. Insurer underwriting also increases workers' compensation administrative costs and means an unnecessary loss of investment income for government and industry. An emerging and better alternative for the Australian community is for government and industry to underwrite a national workers' compensation scheme and to fix premium and benefit requirements which are competitively administered by insurers. In such a regulatory environment insurer inability to compete on premium price should promote competition to provide effective services to help employers prevent injury, assist rehabilitation and contain cost. National standards are necessary to enable widespread dissemination of comparable, reliable information on the outcome of health, rehabilitation, dispute resolution and return to work services. This is required to assess the competitive performance of service providers in order to ensure effective operation of the market to achieve scheme objectives. Holistic, multi-skilled and objective rehabilitation professionals are needed who can clearly demonstrate the effectiveness of their actions in assisting injury prevention, worker rehabilitation, and safe return to work across a range of industry contexts.     

Deposit Insurance,Institutions, and Bank Interest Rates

Many recent institutional reforms of the financial system have relied on the introduction of an explicit scheme of deposit insurance. This instrument aims at two main targets, contributing to systemic stability and protecting depositors. However, it may also affect the interest rate spread in the banking system, which can be viewed as an indicator of either inefficiency or market power in this financial segment. This paper provides an empirical investigation of the effect of deposit insurance and other institutional and economic variables on bank interest rates across countries. We find that deposit insurance increases the lending–deposit spread in banking. The main effect seems to arise not from the deposit side though, but from an increase in the lending rate. We interpret this result as evidence of the presence of moral hazard problems related to this instrument. We also find that higher quality of institutions is associated with lower spreads, thus contributing to eroding sources of market power in the banking sector.     

TECHNOLOGICAL ASYMMETRY AMONG FOREIGN INVESTORS AND MODE OF ENTRY

How does the preferred entry mode of foreign investors depend on their technological capability relative to that of their rivals? This article develops a simple model of entry mode choice and evaluates its main testable implication using data on foreign investors in Eastern European countries and the successor states of the Soviet Union. The model considers competition between two asymmetric foreign investors and captures the following trade‐off: while a joint venture (JV) helps a foreign investor secure a better position in the product market vis‐à‐vis its rival, it also requires that profits be shared with the local partner. The model predicts that the efficient foreign investor is less likely to choose a JV and more likely to enter directly relative to the inefficient investor. Our empirical analysis supports this prediction: foreign investors with more sophisticated technologies and marketing skills (relative to other firms in their industry) tend to prefer direct entry to JVs. This empirical finding is robust to controlling for host country–specific effects and other commonly cited determinants of entry mode. (JEL F13, F23, O32)     

THE TRANSFORMATION OFTHE DOMINANT CORPORATE FORM FROM MULTIDIVISIONAL TO MULTISUBSIDIARY:

In 1986 the dominant form of the Fortune 500 industrial corporation changed from the multidivisional form (MDF) to the multisubsidiary form (MSF) (Zey and Camp 1996). We examine two major organizational perspectives (historical managerialism and agency theory) and an alternative perspective, the political economy contingency theory of capital accumulation (PECTA), to explain the transformation of Fortune 500 corporate form from MDF to MSF. Using event history analysis, we analyze data from 1981–1995 to define the covariates of this change, thereby predicting the risk of change to the now dominant MSF. The historical managerialism model considers assets as an indicator of size, operating profit margin as an indicator of efficiency, and return on sales as an indicator of profitability. The two major variables of the agency theory model are cash flow and debt-to-equity ratio. The alternative PECTA model considers tax savings resulting from changes brought about by the Tax Reform Act of 1986, percentage of shares held by institutional investors, shareholder return on equity, production-to-administrative intensity, dollar amount of acquisitions, and dollar amount of divestitures. Controlling for the natural log of gross assets, which has the strongest relationship to risk of transformation in dominant form from MDF to MSF, we found that the percentage of shares held by institutional investors, the sum of tax-free transactions (spin-offs, split-offs, and stock swaps), the total merger and acquisition activity, and the two-year lagged difference in the rate of first-level subsidiarization all had significant effects on the transformation of corporate form from the MDF to the now dominant MSF.