Properties and Inference for a New Class of Skew-t Distributions

In this article we introduce a new generalization of skew-t distributions, which contains the standard skew-t distribution, as a special case. This new class of distributions is an adequate model for modeling some dataset rather than the standard skew-t distributions. This kind of distributions can be represented as a scale-shape mixture of the extended skew-normal distributions. The main properties of this family of distributions are studied and a recurrence relation for the cumulative distribution functions (cdf) of them is presented. We derive the distribution of the order statistics from the trivariate exchangeable t-distribution in terms of our distribution and then an exact expression for the cdf of order statistics is derived. Likelihood inference for this distribution is also examined. The method is illustrated with a numerical example via a simulation study.     

Inverse Probability of Censoring Weighted U‐statistics for Right‐Censored Data with an Application to Testing Hypotheses

Abstract. A right‐censored version of a U ‐statistic with a kernel of degree m 1 is introduced by the principle of a mean preserving reweighting scheme which is also applicable when the dependence between failure times and the censoring variable is explainable through observable covariates. Its asymptotic normality and an expression of its standard error are obtained through a martingale argument. We study the performances of our U ‐statistic by simulation and compare them with theoretical results. A doubly robust version of this reweighted U ‐statistic is also introduced to gain efficiency under correct models while preserving consistency in the face of model mis‐specifications. Using a Kendall's kernel, we obtain a test statistic for testing homogeneity of failure times for multiple failure causes in a multiple decrement model. The performance of the proposed test is studied through simulations. Its usefulness is also illustrated by applying it to a real data set on graft‐versus‐host‐disease.     

Default Estimation and Expert Information

Default is a rare event, even in segments in the midrange of a bank’s portfolio. Inference about default rates is essential for risk management and for compliance with the requirements of Basel II. Most commercial loans are in the middle-risk categories and are to unrated companies. Expert information is crucial in inference about defaults. A Bayesian approach is proposed and illustrated using a prior distribution assessed from an industry expert. The binomial model, most common in applications, is extended to allow correlated defaults. A check of robustness is illustrated with an ε-mixture of priors.     

Bayesian Tobit quantile regression using g-prior distribution with ridge parameter

A Bayesian approach is proposed for coefficient estimation in the Tobit quantile regression model. The proposed approach is based on placing a g-prior distribution depends on the quantile level on the regression coefficients. The prior is generalized by introducing a ridge parameter to address important challenges that may arise with censored data, such as multicollinearity and overfitting problems. Then, a stochastic search variable selection approach is proposed for Tobit quantile regression model based on g-prior. An expression for the hyperparameter g is proposed to calibrate the modified g-prior with a ridge parameter to the corresponding g-prior. Some possible extensions of the proposed approach are discussed, including the continuous and binary responses in quantile regression. The methods are illustrated using several simulation studies and a microarray study. The simulation studies and the microarray study indicate that the proposed approach performs well.     

On-Line Process Control using Attributes with Misclassification Errors: An Economical Design for Short-Run Production

On-line process control consists of inspecting a single item for every m (integer and m ≥ 2) produced items. Based on the results of the inspection, it is decided whether the process is in-control (the fraction of conforming items is p ₁; State I) or out-of-control (the fraction of conforming items is p ₂ < p ₁; State II). If the inspected item is non conforming, it is determined that the process is out-of-control, and the production process is stopped for an adjustment; otherwise, production continues. As most designs of on-line process control assume a long-run production, this study can be viewed as an extension because it is concerned with short-run production and the decision regarding the process is subject to misclassification errors. The probabilistic model of the control system employs properties of an ergodic Markov chain to obtain the expression of the average cost of the system per unit produced, which can be minimised as a function of the sampling interval, m. The procedure is illustrated by a numerical example.     

Perfect simulation for Reed-Frost epidemic models

The Reed-Frost epidemic model is a simple stochastic process with parameter q that describes the spread of an infectious disease among a closed population. Given data on the final outcome of an epidemic, it is possible to perform Bayesian inference for q using a simple Gibbs sampler algorithm. In this paper it is illustrated that by choosing latent variables appropriately, certain monotonicity properties hold which facilitate the use of a perfect simulation algorithm. The methods are applied to real data.     

Fisher information in generalized order statistics

A representation of the Fisher information in generalized order statistics in terms of the hazard rate of the underlying distribution function is derived under mild regularity conditions. This expression supplements results for complete, Type-II censored, and progressively Type-II censored data. As a byproduct, we find a hazard rate based representation for samples of k-records which apparently has not been known so far. Moreover, sufficient conditions for the validity of this representation in location and scale family settings are given. The result is illustrated by considering generalized order statistics based on logistic, Laplace, and extreme value distributions.     

Bayesian variable selection with related predictors

In data sets with many predictors, algorithms for identifying a good subset of predictors are often used. Most such algorithms do not allow for any relationships between predictors. For example, stepwise regression might select a model containing an interaction AB but neither main effect A or B. This paper develops mathematical representations of this and other relations between predictors, which may then be incorporated in a model selection procedure. A Bayesian approach that goes beyond the standard independence prior for variable selection is adopted, and preference for certain models is interpreted as prior information. Priors relevant to arbitrary interactions and polynomials, dummy variables for categorical factors, competing predictors, and restrictions on the size of the models are developed. Since the relations developed are for priors, they may be incorporated in any Bayesian variable selection algorithm for any type of linear model. The application of the methods here is illustrated via the stochastic search variable selection algorithm of George and McCulloch (1993), which is modified to utilize the new priors. The performance of the approach is illustrated with two constructed examples and a computer performance dataset.     

Estimation of reliability from a bivariate log-normal data

It has been established that the bivariate log-normal distribution is appropriate for modelling certain paired observations. In this paper, we have developed large-sample confidence intervals of the dependence and reliability R=P(X>Y) parameters from a bivariate log-normal distribution with equal log-normal means. The parameter R provides a general measure of difference between the two populations and has applications in many areas. The performance of these confidence intervals has been examined by extensive simulation studies. The results are illustrated with an example dealing with a quantitative assay problem.     

Bayesian Inference in Multivariate Regression With Missing Observations on the Response Variables

We discuss the case of the multivariate linear model Y = XB + E with Y an (n × p) matrix, and so on, when there are missing observations in the Y matrix in a so-called nested pattern. We propose an analysis that arises by incorporating the predictive density of the missing observations in determining the posterior distribution of B, and its mean and variance matrix. This involves us with matric-T variables. The resulting analysis is illustrated with some Canadian economic data.     

Balanced treatment incomplete block designs through integer programming

An algorithm is presented to construct balanced treatment incomplete block (BTIB) designs using a linear integer programming approach. Construction of BTIB designs using the proposed approach is illustrated with an example. A list of efficient BTIB designs for 2 ? v ? 12, v + 1 ? b ? 50, 2 ? k ? min(10, v), r ? 10, r₀ ? 20 is provided. The proposed algorithm is implemented as part of an R package.     

Confidence Interval for Shrinkage Parameters in Ridge Regression

In ridge regression, the estimation of ridge parameter k is an important problem. There are several methods available in the literature to do this job some what efficiently. However, no attempts were made to suggest a confidence interval for the ridge parameter using the knwoledge from the data. In this article, we propose a data dependent confidence interval for the ridge parameter k. The method of obtaining the confidence interval is illustrated with the help of a data set. A simulation study indicates that the empirical coverage probability of the suggested confidence intervals are quite high.     

Simulations and computations of nonparametric density estimates for the deconvolution problem

The nonparametric density function estimation using sample observations which are contaminated with random noise is studied. The particular form of contamination under consideration is Y = X + Z, where Y is an observable random variableZ is a random noise variable with known distribution, and X is an absolutely continuous random variable which cannot be observed directly. The finite sample size performance of a strongly consistent estimator for the density function of the random variable X is illustrated for different distributions. The estimator uses Fourier and kernel function estimation techniques and allows the user to choose constants which relate to bandwidth windows and limits on integration and which greatly affect the appearance and properties of the estimates. Numerical techniques for computation of the estimated densities and for optimal selection of the constant are given.     

Stable spectral factorization with applications to the estimation of time series models

A method for generating a miniphase and inveitible spectral factor from an unstable v × v full rank polynomial matrix is proposed. The zeros inside the unit circle are reflected through the boundary |z|=1 using closed form algebraic manipulations. Also included in the procedure is a technique foi determining the stability of a polynomial operator that does not require the explicit construction of the determinant al equation. Application of the technique is illustrated and the implementation of the method in the statistical context of system estimation is discussed.     

A heteroscedastic measurement error model based on skew and heavy-tailed distributions with known error variances

In this paper, we study inference in a heteroscedastic measurement error model with known error variances. Instead of the normal distribution for the random components, we develop a model that assumes a skew-t distribution for the true covariate and a centred Student's t distribution for the error terms. The proposed model enables to accommodate skewness and heavy-tailedness in the data, while the degrees of freedom of the distributions can be different. Maximum likelihood estimates are computed via an EM-type algorithm. The behaviour of the estimators is also assessed in a simulation study. Finally, the approach is illustrated with a real data set from a methods comparison study in Analytical Chemistry.     

Reduction of n-th moment measures and the special case of the third moment measure of stationary and isotropic planar point processes

Formulae for the reduction of n-th moment measures of stationary point processes and an unbiased estimator for the reduced n-th moment measure are given. In particular, the special case of the third moment measure of planar point processes is considered and the application of the quantities studied is illustrated by an example.     

Global comparisons of medians and other quantiles in a one-way design when there are tied values

For J ? 2 independent groups, the article deals with testing the global hypothesis that all J groups have a common population median or identical quantiles, with an emphasis on the quartiles. Classic rank-based methods are sometimes suggested for comparing medians, but it is well known that under general conditions they do not adequately address this goal. Extant methods based on the usual sample median are unsatisfactory when there are tied values except for the special case J = 2. A variation of the percentile bootstrap used in conjunction with the Harrell–Davis quantile estimator performs well in simulations. The method is illustrated with data from the Well Elderly 2 study.     

Bayesian inference for multivariate gamma distributions

The paper considers the multivariate gamma distribution for which the method of moments has been considered as the only method of estimation due to the complexity of the likelihood function. With a non-conjugate prior, practical Bayesian analysis can be conducted using Gibbs sampling with data augmentation. The new methods are illustrated using artificial data for a trivariate gamma distribution as well as an application to technical inefficiency estimation.     

On the Sampling Distributions of the Estimated Process Loss Indices with Asymmetric Tolerances

The inverse Gaussian distribution provides a flexible model for analyzing positive, right-skewed data. The generalized variable test for equality of several inverse Gaussian means with unknown and arbitrary variances has satisfactory Type-I error rate when the number of samples (k) is small (Tian, 2006). However, the Type-I error rate tends to be inflated when k goes up. In this article, we propose a parametric bootstrap (PB) approach for this problem. Simulation results show that the proposed test performs very satisfactorily regardless of the number of samples and sample sizes. This method is illustrated by an example.     

Orthogonally Blocked Mixture Experiments in Ellipsoidal Restricted Regions

In practical situations involving mixtures formed from several ingredients, interest is sometimes centered on the response in an ellipsoidal neighborhood around a standard formulation. We show that standard, orthogonally blocked, response surface designs, defined on a q ? 1 dimensional unit sphere, may be transformed into similarly orthogonally blocked q-ingredient mixture designs defined within an ellipsoid centered at the standard formulation. The method is illustrated using several examples of mixture experiments with three, four, and five ingredients, arranged in two, three, or four orthogonal blocks, obtained by projecting standard central composite designs and Box–Behnken designs into the ellipsoidal mixture region. Rotations of the resulting designs within the ellipsoidal regions are also considered.