Efficient Robust Estimation for Linear Models with Missing Response at Random

Coefficient estimation in linear regression models with missing data is routinely carried out in the mean regression framework. However, the mean regression theory breaks down if the error variance is infinite. In addition, correct specification of the likelihood function for existing imputation approach is often challenging in practice, especially for skewed data. In this paper, we develop a novel composite quantile regression and a weighted quantile average estimation procedure for parameter estimation in linear regression models when some responses are missing at random. Instead of imputing the missing response by randomly drawing from its conditional distribution, we propose to impute both missing and observed responses by their estimated conditional quantiles given the observed data and to use the parametrically estimated propensity scores to weigh check functions that define a regression parameter. Both estimation procedures are resistant to heavy‐tailed errors or outliers in the response and can achieve nice robustness and efficiency. Moreover, we propose adaptive penalization methods to simultaneously select significant variables and estimate unknown parameters. Asymptotic properties of the proposed estimators are carefully investigated. An efficient algorithm is developed for fast implementation of the proposed methodologies. We also discuss a model selection criterion, which is based on an IC_Q ‐type statistic, to select the penalty parameters. The performance of the proposed methods is illustrated via simulated and real data sets.     

Application of shrinkage estimation in linear regression models with autoregressive errors

In this paper, we consider the shrinkage and penalty estimation procedures in the linear regression model with autoregressive errors of order p when it is conjectured that some of the regression parameters are inactive. We develop the statistical properties of the shrinkage estimation method including asymptotic distributional biases and risks. We show that the shrinkage estimators have a significantly higher relative efficiency than the classical estimator. Furthermore, we consider the two penalty estimators: least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) and adaptive LASSO estimators, and numerically compare their relative performance with that of the shrinkage estimators. A Monte Carlo simulation experiment is conducted for different combinations of inactive predictors and the performance of each estimator is evaluated in terms of the simulated mean-squared error. This study shows that the shrinkage estimators are comparable to the penalty estimators when the number of inactive predictors in the model is relatively large. The shrinkage and penalty methods are applied to a real data set to illustrate the usefulness of the procedures in practice.     

Regularized parameter estimation of high dimensional t distribution

We propose penalized-likelihood methods for parameter estimation of high dimensional t distribution. First, we show that a general class of commonly used shrinkage covariance matrix estimators for multivariate normal can be obtained as penalized-likelihood estimator with a penalty that is proportional to the entropy loss between the estimate and an appropriately chosen shrinkage target. Motivated by this fact, we then consider applying this penalty to multivariate t distribution. The penalized estimate can be computed efficiently using EM algorithm for given tuning parameters. It can also be viewed as an empirical Bayes estimator. Taking advantage of its Bayesian interpretation, we propose a variant of the method of moments to effectively elicit the tuning parameters. Simulations and real data analysis demonstrate the competitive performance of the new methods.     

Optimal B-robust estimators for the parameters of the Burr XII distribution

The Burr XII distribution offers a flexible alternative to the distributions that play important role for modelling data in reliability, risk and process capability. However, estimating the shape parameters of the Burr XII distribution is a challenging problem. The classical estimation methods such as maximum likelihood and least squares are often used to estimate the parameters of the Burr XII distribution, but these methods are very sensitive to the outliers in the data. Thus, a robust estimation method alternative to the classical methods is needed to find robust estimators that are less sensitive to the outliers in the data. The purpose of this paper is to use the optimal B-robust estimation method [Hampel FR, Ronchetti EM, Rousseeuw PJ, Stahel WA. Robust statistics: the approach based on influence functions. New York: Wiley; 1986] to obtain robust estimators for the shape parameters of the Burr XII distribution. The simulation results show that the optimal B-robust estimators generally outperform the classical estimators in terms of the bias and root mean square errors when there are outliers in data.     

Estimation of the Mean and Standard Deviation of the Logistic Distribution Based on Multiply Type-II Censored Samples

In this paper, we discuss the problem of estimating the mean and standard deviation of a logistic population based on multiply Type-II censored samples. First, we discuss the best linear unbiased estimation and the maximum likelihood estimation methods. Next, by appropriately approximating the likelihood equations we derive approximate maximum likelihood estimators for the two parameters and show that these estimators are quite useful as they do not need the construction of any special tables (as required for the best linear unbiased estimators) and are explicit estimators (unlike the maximum likelihood estimators which need to be determined by numerical methods). We show that these estimators are also quite efficient, and derive the asymptotic variances and covariance of the estimators. Finally, we present an example to illustrate the methods of estimation discussed in this paper.     

Robust-efficient fitting of mixed linear models: Methodology and theory

In many areas of application mixed linear models serve as a popular tool for analyzing highly complex data sets. For inference about fixed effects and variance components, likelihood-based methods such as (restricted) maximum likelihood estimators, (RE)ML, are commonly pursued. However, it is well-known that these fully efficient estimators are extremely sensitive to small deviations from hypothesized normality of random components as well as to other violations of distributional assumptions. In this article, we propose a new class of robust-efficient estimators for inference in mixed linear models. The new three-step estimation procedure provides truncated generalized least squares and variance components' estimators with hard-rejection weights adaptively computed from the data. More specifically, our data re-weighting mechanism first detects and removes within-subject outliers, then identifies and discards between-subject outliers, and finally it employs maximum likelihood procedures on the “clean” data. Theoretical efficiency and robustness properties of this approach are established.     

Penalized and Shrinkage Estimation in the Cox Proportional Hazards Model

This article considers the shrinkage estimation procedure in the Cox's proportional hazards regression model when it is suspected that some of the parameters may be restricted to a subspace. We have developed the statistical properties of the shrinkage estimators including asymptotic distributional biases and risks. The shrinkage estimators have much higher relative efficiency than the classical estimator, furthermore, we consider two penalty estimators—the LASSO and adaptive LASSO—and compare their relative performance with that of the shrinkage estimators numerically. A Monte Carlo simulation experiment is conducted for different combinations of irrelevant predictors and the performance of each estimator is evaluated in terms of simulated mean squared error. Simulation study shows that the shrinkage estimators are comparable to the penalty estimators when the number of irrelevant predictors in the model is relatively large. The shrinkage and penalty methods are applied to two real data sets to illustrate the usefulness of the procedures in practice.     

On the robustness properties for maximum likelihood estimators of parameters in exponential power and generalized T distributions*

Abstract

Examining the robustness properties of maximum likelihood (ML) estimators of parameters in exponential power and generalized t distributions has been considered together. The well-known asymptotic properties of ML estimators of location, scale and added skewness parameters in these distributions are studied. The ML estimators for location, scale and scale variant (skewness) parameters are represented as an iterative reweighting algorithm (IRA) to compute the estimates of these parameters simultaneously. The artificial data are generated to examine performance of IRA for ML estimators of parameters simultaneously. We make a comparison between these two distributions to test the fitting performance on real data sets. The goodness of fit test and information criteria approve that robustness and fitting performance should be considered together as a key for modeling issue to have the best information from real data sets.     

Hellinger distance as a penalized log likelihood

The present paper studies the minimum Hellinger distance estimator by recasting it as the maximum likelihood estimator in a data driven modification of the model density. In the process, the Hellinger distance itself is expressed as a penalized log likelihood function. The penalty is the sum of the model probabilities over the non-observed values of the sample space. A comparison of the modified model density with the original data provides insights into the robustness of the minimum Hellinger distance estimator. Adjustments of the amount of penalty leads to a class of minimum penalized Hellinger distance estimators, some members of which perform substantially better than the minimum Hellinger distance estimator at the model for small samples, without compromising the robustness properties of the latter.     

Estimation of the means of the bivariate normal using moving extreme ranked set sampling with concomitant variable

The estimation of the means of the bivariate normal distribution, based on a sample obtained using a modification of the moving extreme ranked set sampling technique (MERSS) is considered. The modification involves using a concomitant random variable. Nonparametric-type methods as well as the maximum likelihood estimation are considered. The estimators obtained are compared to their counterparts based on simple random sampling (SRS). It appears that the suggested estimators are more efficient. Also, MERSS with concomitant variable is easier to use in practice than the usual ranked set sampling (RSS) with concomitant variable. The issue of robustness of the procedure is addressed. Real trees data set is used for illustration.     

Practical small sample inference for single lag subset autoregressive models

We propose a method for saddlepoint approximating the distribution of estimators in single lag subset autoregressive models of order one. By viewing the estimator as the root of an appropriate estimating equation, the approach circumvents the difficulty inherent in more standard methods that require an explicit expression for the estimator to be available. Plots of the densities reveal that the distributions of the Burg and maximum likelihood estimators are nearly identical. We show that one possible reason for this is the fact that Burg enjoys the property of estimation equation optimality among a class of estimators expressible as a ratio of quadratic forms in normal random variables, which includes Yule–Walker and least squares. By inverting a two-sided hypothesis test, we show how small sample confidence intervals for the parameters can be constructed from the saddlepoint approximations. Simulation studies reveal that the resulting intervals generally outperform traditional ones based on asymptotics and have good robustness properties with respect to heavy-tailed and skewed innovations. The applicability of the models is illustrated by analyzing a longitudinal data set in a novel manner.     

Robust fitting of claim severity distributions and the method of trimmed moments

Many quantities arising in non-life insurance depend on claim severity distributions, which are usually modeled assuming a parametric form. Obtaining good estimates of the quantities, therefore, reduces to having good estimates of the model parameters. However, the notion of ‘good estimate’ depends on the problem at hand. For example, the maximum likelihood estimators (MLEs) are efficient, but they generally lack robustness. Since outliers are common in insurance loss data, it is therefore important to have a method that allows one to balance between efficiency and robustness. Guided by this philosophy, in the present paper we suggest a general estimation method that we call the method of trimmed moments (MTM). This method is appropriate for various model-fitting situations including those for which a close fit in one or both tails of the distribution is not required. The MTM estimators can achieve various degrees of robustness, and they also allow the decision maker to easily see the actions of the estimators on the data, which makes them particularly appealing. We illustrate these features with detailed theoretical analyses and simulation studies of the MTM estimators in the case of location–scale families and several loss distributions such as lognormal and Pareto. As a further illustration, we analyze a real data set concerning hurricane damages in the United States from 1925 to 1995.     

Parameter estimation of three-parameter Weibull distribution based on progressively Type-II censored samples

In this paper, the estimation of parameters for a three-parameter Weibull distribution based on progressively Type-II right censored sample is studied. Different estimation procedures for complete sample are generalized to the case with progressively censored data. These methods include the maximum likelihood estimators (MLEs), corrected MLEs, weighted MLEs, maximum product spacing estimators and least squares estimators. We also proposed the use of a censored estimation method with one-step bias-correction to obtain reliable initial estimates for iterative procedures. These methods are compared via a Monte Carlo simulation study in terms of their biases, root mean squared errors and their rates of obtaining reliable estimates. Recommendations are made from the simulation results and a numerical example is presented to illustrate all of the methods of inference developed here.     

Quasi- and pseudo-maximum likelihood estimators for discretely observed continuous-time Markov branching processes

This article deals with quasi- and pseudo-likelihood estimation for a class of continuous-time multi-type Markov branching processes observed at discrete points in time. “Conventional” and conditional estimation are discussed for both approaches. We compare their properties and identify situations where they lead to asymptotically equivalent estimators. Both approaches possess robustness properties, and coincide with maximum likelihood estimation in some cases. Quasi-likelihood functions involving only linear combinations of the data may be unable to estimate all model parameters. Remedial measures exist, including the resort either to non-linear functions of the data or to conditioning the moments on appropriate sigma-algebras. The method of pseudo-likelihood may also resolve this issue. We investigate the properties of these approaches in three examples: the pure birth process, the linear birth-and-death process, and a two-type process that generalizes the previous two examples. Simulations studies are conducted to evaluate performance in finite samples.     

Shrinkage estimation in lognormal regression model for censored data

We introduce in this paper, the shrinkage estimation method in the lognormal regression model for censored data involving many predictors, some of which may not have any influence on the response of interest. We develop the asymptotic properties of the shrinkage estimators (SEs) using the notion of asymptotic distributional biases and risks. We show that if the shrinkage dimension exceeds two, the asymptotic risk of the SEs is strictly less than the corresponding classical estimators. Furthermore, we study the penalty (LASSO and adaptive LASSO) estimation methods and compare their relative performance with the SEs. A simulation study for various combinations of the inactive predictors and censoring percentages shows that the SEs perform better than the penalty estimators in certain parts of the parameter space, especially when there are many inactive predictors in the model. It also shows that the shrinkage and penalty estimators outperform the classical estimators. A real-life data example using Worcester heart attack study is used to illustrate the performance of the suggested estimators.     

Parameter estimation of state space models for univariate observations

This paper contributes to the problem of estimation of state space model parameters by proposing estimators for the mean, the autoregressive parameters and the noise variances which, contrarily to maximum likelihood, may be calculated without assuming any specific distribution for the errors. The estimators suggested widen the scope of the application of the generalized method of moments to some heteroscedastic models, as in the case of state-space models with varying coefficients, and give sufficient conditions for their consistency. The paper includes a simulation study comparing the proposed estimators with maximum likelihood estimators. Finally, these methods are applied to the calibration of the meteorological radar and estimation of area rainfall.     

Nonlinear GCV and quasi-GCV for shrinkage models

The generalized cross-validation (GCV) method has been a popular technique for the selection of tuning parameters for smoothing and penalty, and has been a standard tool to select tuning parameters for shrinkage models in recent works. Its computational ease and robustness compared to the cross-validation method makes it competitive for model selection as well. It is well known that the GCV method performs well for linear estimators, which are linear functions of the response variable, such as ridge estimator. However, it may not perform well for nonlinear estimators since the GCV emphasizes linear characteristics by taking the trace of the projection matrix. This paper aims to explore the GCV for nonlinear estimators and to further extend the results to correlated data in longitudinal studies. We expect that the nonlinear GCV and quasi-GCV developed in this paper will provide similar tools for the selection of tuning parameters in linear penalty models and penalized GEE models.     

Penalized least-squares estimation for regression coefficients in high-dimensional partially linear models

We consider a partially linear model with diverging number of groups of parameters in the parametric component. The variable selection and estimation of regression coefficients are achieved simultaneously by using the suitable penalty function for covariates in the parametric component. An MM-type algorithm for estimating parameters without inverting a high-dimensional matrix is proposed. The consistency and sparsity of penalized least-squares estimators of regression coefficients are discussed under the setting of some nonzero regression coefficients with very small values. It is found that the root p_n/n-consistency and sparsity of the penalized least-squares estimators of regression coefficients cannot be given consideration simultaneously when the number of nonzero regression coefficients with very small values is unknown, where p_n and n, respectively, denote the number of regression coefficients and sample size. The finite sample behaviors of penalized least-squares estimators of regression coefficients and the performance of the proposed algorithm are studied by simulation studies and a real data example.     

Modified Profile Likelihood for Fixed-Effects Panel Data Models

We show how modified profile likelihood methods, developed in the statistical literature, may be effectively applied to estimate the structural parameters of econometric models for panel data, with a remarkable reduction of bias with respect to ordinary likelihood methods. Initially, the implementation of these methods is illustrated for general models for panel data including individual-specific fixed effects and then, in more detail, for the truncated linear regression model and dynamic regression models for binary data formulated along with different specifications. Simulation studies show the good behavior of the inference based on the modified profile likelihood, even when compared to an ideal, although infeasible, procedure (in which the fixed effects are known) and also to alternative estimators existing in the econometric literature. The proposed estimation methods are implemented in an R package that we make available to the reader.     

Approximate maximum likelihood estimation of the mean and standard deviation of the normal distribution based on type ii censored samples

It is known that the maximum likelihood methods does not provide explicit estimators for the mean and standard deviation of the normal distribution based on Type II censored samples. In this paper we present a simple method of deriving explicit estimators by approximating the likelihood equations appropriately. We obtain the variances and covariance of these estimators. We also show that these estimators are almost as eficient as the maximum likelihood (ML) estimators and just as eficient as the best linear unbiased (BLU), and the modified maximum likelihood (MML) estimators. Finally, we illustrate this method of estimation by applying it to Gupta's and Darwin's data.