Operational research at the National Defence Research Institute of Sweden (FOA)

This paper gives an account of an institute for applied research so as to enable comparisons to be made with other institutes: such comparisons need not be limited to defence establishments. In elaborating the methodology of the institute its local concepts are applied, a conceptualisation which has proven useful outside defence [I]. Defence methodology still creates civilian spin-off.     

Analytic approaches to problems of a middle-sized defence department

The application of operational research to the problems of Canadian defence was very similar to that in Great Britain and the United States during World War II and through the 1950s. But because of the rapidly increasing costs of major weapon systems, since the 1960s systems analysis has been very thoroughly applied to the study of the large procurement programs, including far-reaching examination of their economic impact on the nation. Other problems of special interest to Canada which received analytical attention included peacekeeping and military involvement in activities such as maritime surveillance and search and rescue. Analytical studies have been extended into examination of logistics and manpower, and into economic, sociological, and strategic problems of concern to the Canadian defence department, including arms control. This type of research represents a considerable excursion from the original operational research, but is needed in the Canadian Department of National Defence.     

Defence planning: The uncertainty factor

Failures to predict the course of future conflicts are historically even more numerous than failures to predict the weapons with which they would be fought. Defence has to do with a two-sided activity of conflict and confrontation and in that there is a built-in minimum 50 per cent failure rate. Lack of opportunity, for continuous or even frequent comparison of prediction with reality compounds the defence planner's difficulties. Political decisions on defence purport to be derived from military predictions among other factors, but for practical purposes, have to be regarded as a major element of unpredictability in their own right. Bred in this tradition, the defence planner puts a bold front on things, dreams up scenarios, and keeps his fingers crossed. Knowing that, if he has got them wrong, the ships, tanks and aircraft, will come in useful in the conflicts and confrontations ahead.     

On current issues in defence systems analysis and combat modelling

Summarizing the discussions of the 1982 symposium sponsored by NATO's Defence Research Group and directed by this author, the paper puts forward some major issues in defence systems analysis and combat modelling related to: (1) the architectural approaches to the design of military campaign simulation models; (2) the verification and validation of models; (3) the employment of combat simulation, field trials and exercises in an exploratory research mode in order to gain insights rather than supporting solutions; (4) the use of interactive combat models to obtain a better understanding of cognitive functions in command and control, especially also with a view to structuring knowledge bases for military expert systems; (5) the type and use of planning models permitting the defence planner to arrive at robust solutions to his problems, not least with regard to possible responses by the potential antagonists.     

Defining and assessing industry 4.0 maturity levels – case of the defence sector

Abstract

Firms do not currently fully appreciate the complex characteristics of Industry 4.0 and as a result are uncertain about what it represents for them. In this study, an assessment model is developed to measure the level of implementation of Industry 4.0 technologies, around three dimensions: ‘Factory of the Future’, ‘People and Culture’, and ‘Strategy’. The ‘Factory of the Future’ is the main dimension and is composed of eight attributes: Additive Manufacturing, Cloud, Manufacturing Execution System, Internet of Things and Cyber Physical Systems, Big Data, Sensors, e-Value Chains, and Autonomous Robots. The study uses a defence manufacturing firm to develop, test and validate the model and report on 12 partners. We concluded that the focal firm has an Industry 4.0 maturity level of 59.35, above the sector average of 55.58. This research contributes by empirically developing a model and providing an analysis of major firms in the Defence supply network.     

Soft OR comes of age—but not everywhere!

Over the last forty years, new methods and methodologies have been developed to deal with wicked problems or “messes”. They are structured and rigorous but non-mathematical. Prime examples are: soft systems methodology (SSM), cognitive mapping/SODA and the strategic choice approach (SCA). Collectively they are known as Soft OR, Soft Systems, or Problem Structuring Methods (PSMs). Soft OR has now come of age in terms of both dealing with complex practical situations and having a presence in the academic literature. However, Soft OR is not recognized, or even seen as a legitimate part of an OR, everywhere and this is especially so in the US, where top journals such as Operations Research and Management Science do not publish Soft OR papers. The purpose of this paper is to generate an informed discussion and debate, which may lead to a greater recognition of the contribution of Soft OR, and to it being seen to be a proper part of the OR discipline worldwide. In order to achieve this, the first section outlines the nature of Soft OR and describes briefly some of the main methods. The second section demonstrates that Soft OR has been successful both in practice and within the academic literature. The third section documents the invisibility of Soft OR within important sections of the OR literature, and the final section then suggests some explanations for this, and also proposes practical actions to try and alleviate the problem. It is not suggested that Soft OR is an alternative to traditional, mathematical OR but, rather, a complement.     

The politic,philosophy and practice of OR—A personal view of the issues

It is almost 50 years since Sir Henry Tizzard created the group of scientists in RAF Fighter Command who were to coin the term ‘Operational Research’. The group still exists, though its work, and the work of other defence OR groups, has changed from solving acute operational problems by the extrapolation of observed data, to an attempt at predicting the outcome of policy choices that are beyond experience. Inevitably this has forced OR further into a political arena. Yet most OR practitioners are scientists used to investigating apolitical and benign nature. In this paper the author gives a personal view of what he believes OR is trying to achieve, what practical problems and pressures have to be faced and attempts to give guidance on how to proceed.     

Learning from mixed OR method practice: The NINES case study

Despite continued interest in the use of mixed OR/MS methods, limited attention has been paid in the literature to generic lessons that could be gained from mixing methods in practice. Many organisational problems demand the use of a mixed method approach and thus recognising and sharing lessons could prove beneficial to both practitioners and researchers. This paper reports on an in-depth evaluation of a case study involving risk identification and quantification of the Northern Isles New Energy Solutions (NINES) project which sought to trial and plan a new energy system. The intervention involved a mixed method approach and client feedback on the efficacy of the approach was sought. The evaluation reported in this paper is carried out using a set of themes taken from the literature and seeks to highlight transferable lessons. The set of lessons that emerge are presented along with their implications for both general OR modelling practice and the specific situation of mixing OR/MS methods. The paper concludes by discussing the implications of the work and directions for future work which will be of interest to both practitioners and researchers interested in mixed method OR/MS work.     

Is advertising for losers? An empirical study from a value creation and value capturing perspective

Does advertising lead to higher profits? This question has preoccupied company executives and academic researchers for many decades. Arguments have been put forth in both directions, and evidence is mixed at best. In this article, we re-examine the question from a value creation and value capturing perspective, which allows us to re-interpret and reconcile the different views and empirically validate the resulting hypotheses. Using a database of the top 500 brands of established companies during the 2008–2015 period, we find that advertising spending has no significant impact on profitability, while both brand value and research and development (R&D) spending have a clearly positive effect. In addition, we observe a positive interaction effect between advertising spending and R&D spending and a negative interaction between brand value and R&D spending on profitability. These findings corroborate the view that advertising in and of itself does not improve profitability; rather, its effect is positive only when it acts in support of customer value creation as a result of R&D.     

Planning for electricity generation in India

A country's economy and its energy base have a complex yet strong relationship. As a result the provisioning of an increasing quanta of energy is a vital pre-requisite for the economic growth of a country. With certain exceptions it has been found from a study of the per capita electric energy generation and per capita income that between 0·7 and 2 units of electric energy are required for generation of one unit of income. The exact relationship will vary from country to country depending on the particular energy-mix, the extent of industrialization and the energy efficiency of the economy. In the case of India, with the increasing contribution being made by the manufacturing, mining, transportation and communication sectors to the gross national product, the linkage between energy consumption and the deflated GNP are specific and strong. This paper outlines the methodology by which the relationship has been modelled and a forecast made of the energy demand.     

Do CEOs exercise managerial discretion to save their jobs?

Chief Executive Officers (CEOs) wield considerable power and authority. In many industries and contexts, CEO turnover is studied in terms of antecedents, the event itself, and the related consequences. However, the extent to which CEOs exert their power and attempt to prevent their dismissal has not been thoroughly examined. In this study, we examine the role of CEOs exercising managerial discretion in their effort to prevent their own corporate demise. We hypothesize that CEOs cut discretionary expenses such as research and development, advertising, and rent in order to boost earnings and enhance financial performance. A sample of CEO turnover from Standard and Poor’s ExecComp database for the period 1992–1998 in US firms yielded 474 turnover firms and 2,066 control firm-years. We tested the effects of CEO turnover and managerial discretion on firm performance measured by cumulative abnormal stock returns. We also compared the turnover and non-turnover firms in terms of pattern of discretionary spending prior to CEO turnover. The results are consistent with our prediction that CEOs facing termination attempt to post higher earnings by reducing discretionary spending after controlling for firm performance, firm diversification, book to market ratio, and CEO ownership, industry-, and year dummies.     

Short-term international assignments. Military perspectives and implications for international human resource management

Short-term international assignments have been under-explored in international human resource management (IHRM) literature and research. Equally, there is a dearth of studies on international mobility beyond multinational corporations. Drawing on an exploratory study of short-term international assignments in the Irish Defence Forces, this paper considers the implications for IHRM.     

Strategy and tactics for resisting take-over

Although many articles have been written on how to take over a company, comparatively few have explained how to resist take-over in the U.K. This article seeks to redress the literature imbalance. The worst time to mount a defence is after a bid has been received. Accordingly, a large part of this article is concerned with advance preparation. The topics covered are: the need for advance preparation; identifying take-over targets; valuing a firm; defences prior to a bid; detecting an imminent bid; the Take-over Code; defences after a bid.     

Reengineering of a supply chain management system: A case study

A business process reengineering (BPR) project concerning a supply chain management (SCM) system of a heavy machinery manufacturing company has been discussed in this paper. The BPR implementation process model has been described. The principal objective of this project has been to bring about radical changes in the mind sets, management styles and systems of a very mature but large organization in India. The implementation process has been very successful because the model has been explored by an organizational development initiative. BPR is both feasible and worthwhile in business only when ideas and ideals are put willingly in practice; and is practised in a collaborative mode to get closer to the people, especially at the floor level, and to customers and suppliers.     

Harnessing Customer Mindset Metrics to Boost Consumer Spending: A Cross-Country Study on Routes to Economic and Business Growth

The relationship between customer mindset metrics (CMMs) and consumer spending has been extensively investigated at the consumer and firm level, but little is known about it at the national level, nor about how it differs between countries. Drawing on five publicly available datasets gathered in 10 European countries over 20 years, our study traces the connections between three CMMs – customer satisfaction, perceived service quality and loyalty intentions – and consumer spending, as well as examining the moderating cross-country effects of culture, socioeconomic factors, economic structure and political–economic elements. The results show that the CMMs significantly influence consumer spending in all the countries studied, with the effects most pronounced in societies with relatively low education levels, a dominant service sector, fewer barriers to business and international trade and a foundation of survival values rather than self-expressive values. Our findings suggest that CMMs can be used to boost not just business performance but also economic growth, and therefore have significant implications for policymakers as well as practitioners and companies.     

IS THERE A FISCAL FREE LUNCH IN A LIQUIDITY TRAP?

In this paper, we use a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model to examine the effects of an expansion in government spending in a liquidity trap. If the liquidity trap is very prolonged, the spending multiplier can be much larger than in normal circumstances, and the budgetary costs minimal. However, given this fiscal free lunch, it is unclear why policymakers would want to limit the size of fiscal expansion. Our paper addresses this question in a model environment in which the duration of the liquidity trap is determined endogenously, and depends on the size of the fiscal stimulus. We show that even if the multiplier is high for small increases in government spending, it may decrease substantially at higher spending levels; thus, it is crucial to distinguish between the marginal and average responses of output and government debt.     

What influences a decision? Some results from a highly controlled defence game

A closed game is described in which one person, representing a land force commander, plays against an unknown but pre-determined threat and decides when and where to deploy reserves. The game was designed to investigate the value of various levels of intelligence data. But large changes in data have had little effect on the quality of decisions made; the dominant feature is the variation between players. The possibility that the game itself might add unnecessarily to this variation has been examined. Accepting that large variation between players may be a fact of life, a way of increasing the efficiency of highly controlled games has also been tested. A number of working hypotheses, thought to be independent of the defence context, are offered to future game designers and the question is raised as to why Operational Researchers, who claim to assist decision-taking, know so little about what influences a decision.     

Organisation of new product development in Asia and Europe: results from Western multinationals R&D sites in Germany,India, and China

From research on Western new product development (NPD) practices a rich body of literature has emerged. However, the impact of country specific and cultural influences has not been examined in this context yet. This study is a first attempt to identify differences in NPD practices between Research and Development (R&D) subsidiaries in Germany, China and India within multinational companies. Data has been generated by qualitative interviews with R&D executives in those countries across multiple cases. The study samples strategic, organizational and operational aspects indicates definite differences in process coordination, rewarding systems, market orientation and the average age of NPD teams. Other aspects like strategic targets, the management involvement, etc. show rather slight differences across the countries. Hence, findings suggest that while some aspects are universally applicable across cultural frontiers, Western companies have to understand different expectations regarding NPD in India and China by adjusting practices accordingly.     

Office of the future — New challenges for operational research

A technological barrage has been fired on the office environment in an attempt to attack rising costs and improve productivity. Although very new, a dramatic level of effort is already being applied. The state of the art is changing daily but so far the problems still outnumber the solutions. The opportunities to contribute are significant. This paper briefly describes the scene, characterizes the state-of-the-art and suggests an entry strategy for the OR professional. The probable response of the OR profession is considered.     

Government spending on research and development and industrial production in Singapore

The role of government policies in the economic growth of Singapore has been well documented. The governments actions, such as the provision of appropriate infrastructure, have resulted in massive inflow of foreign capital to Singapore. Government sponsorship of selected industries and foreign investment helped domestic firms to gain access to advanced technologies. During the 1990s there was a significant increase in government spending on research and development (R&D) that can be attributed to the development of advanced technologies by Singaporean firms. This paper examines the impact of government-funded R&D in fostering the development of Singapores industrial production in the 1990s. The study explicitly considers the performance of three industries within the manufacturing sector: the machinery and equipment industry, the electrical machinery industry, and the transport equipment industry. It is shown that the fluctuations in real government spending on R&D had a significant positive impact on the performance of the selected manufacturing industries.