A Theory of Time Preference

This article proposes that people generally prefer present consumption to future consumption because their expected utility from consumption (eventually) falls as their mental and physical abilities (eventually) decline with age. Moreover, contrary to the ubiquitous intertemporal formulation with a constant rate of time preference and contrary to three recent theories of time preference that predict decreasing discounting as people age, this article asserts that discounting increases over the life cycle. This hypothesis is supported by data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics as well as evidence from numerous previous studies.     

A FINANCE APPROACH TO ESTIMATING CONSUMPTION PARAMETERS

This paper relates consumption economics more closely to an aggregate financial variable than in any previous research. We compile the net real rate of return on a synthetic mutual fund (SMF) encompassing all major classes of financial assets and residential real estate. Return on the SMF better represents the market return of financial portfolio theory than any measure in use today and we demonstrate its merit in an expected utility model to estimate consumption parameters, the coefficient of relative risk aversion (CRRA), and intertemporal elasticity of substitution (IES). The estimates are stable across varying time periods and alternative measures of consumption. (JEL E21, D91, G11, C13)     

Subjective measures of household preferences and financial decisions

In intertemporal models of household consumption or portfolio choice, household behaviour depends on, for example, the household's rate of time preference, the rate of risk aversion, and the household's information set. In this paper we use a survey of Dutch households which contains direct subjective information on risk aversion and time preference and on interest in financial matters. We first describe these data and analyze how they relate to household characteristics and household income. We then investigate whether these variables are related to households' financial decisions on home ownership, mortgages and ownership of risky assets. Our results are broadly in accordance with economic theory.     

THE LIFE-CYCLE LABOR SUPPLY OF MARRIED WOMEN AND ITS IMPLICATIONS FOR HOUSEHOLD INCOME INEQUALITY

In a life-cycle model of married womens' labor supply the husband's expected lifetime income should have a greater effect on his wife's labor supply than should his current income. Using the Panel Study of Income Dynamics data, the husband's average lifetime income (over the panel years) does have a greater negative income effect than current income. However, this income effect has declined over time: the labor supply of wives is becoming less sensitive to their husbands' incomes. This declining elasticity would cause household income inequality to worsen over time, but has been offset by other factors.     

Self-control and loss aversion in intertemporal choice

The life-cycle theory of saving behavior (Modigliani, 1988) suggests that humans strive towards an equal intertemporal distribution of wealth. However, behavioral life-cycle theory (Shefrin & Thaler, 1988) proposes that people use self-control heuristics to postpone wealth until later in life. According to this theory, people use a system of cognitive budgeting known as mental accounting. In the present study it was found that mental accounts were used differently depending on if the income change was positive or negative. This was shown both in a representative nationwide sample of households and in a student sample. Respondents were more willing to cut down on their propensity to consume when faced with an income decrease than to raise it when the income increased. Furthermore, contrary to the predictions of behavioral life-cycle theory, it was found that the respondents adjusted their propensity to consume the most when the income increases or decreases took place immediately. Hence, it is suggested that theories of intertemporal choice (e.g., Loewenstein, 1988; Loewenstein & Prelec, 1992) provide a better account of the data than does the behavioral lifecycle theory.     

Optimal dividend distribution policy from the perspective of the impatient and loss-averse investor

This paper discusses a problem concerning intertemporal decision-making under uncertainty when its subject has psychological biases. Here, we consider an investment company as a decision maker that invests money from investors in a financial asset and pays some dividend every period depending on the performance of the investment. On the other hand, we assume investors have such psychological biases as inconsistent time preference and loss aversion. Through numerical experiments we show that the optimal dividend distribution under inconsistent time preference and loss aversion is quite different from the distribution without these psychological factors, and that combinations of the two factors produce various patterns of dividend distribution.     

Saving for Children’s College Education: An Empirical Analysis of the Trade-off Between the Quality and Quantity of Children

This paper examines the effect of children’s college expenses on household savings. The theoretical model introduces life-cycle savings into the quality–quantity model of fertility and derives predictions for the impact of expected expenses on parents’ savings. Using the actual amount of parents’ financial support reported in the Survey of Consumer Finances, the empirical model estimates the expected expenditures on children’s college education and investigates the effect of expected expenditures on parents’ savings. The results show that parents’ support for each of their children’s college expenses decreases with the number of children. The results are consistent with the predictions of the life-cycle theory of saving and consumption that households save in advance for expected expenses to smooth their consumption.

Can gender differences in distributional preferences explain gender gaps in competition?

We design a lab experiment to specifically examine whether a preference for favorable inequality and behindness aversion, as well as egalitarian preferences, affect competitive choices differently among males and females. Using data on approximately 2,000 subjects, we find that selection into competitive environments is negatively related to egalitarian preferences, with smaller negative impacts of being egalitarian on females’ choice to compete. Further, behindness aversion and preference for favorable inequality affect willingness to compete in opposite ways. The willingness to compete is negatively affected by behindness aversion, while a preference for favorable inequality positively influences willingness to compete. Interestingly, when we disaggregate behavior along gender lines, we find that compared to behindness averse males, behindness averse females are more likely to enter the competitive environment. In contrast, there is no significant gender difference in the impact of preference for favorable inequality on competition. Our results suggest that the observed gender difference in competitiveness can stem from male-female differences in distributional preferences and selected personality traits developed during one’s lifetime.     

Measuring the effect of spell recurrence on poverty dynamics—evidence from Spain

Accounting for the time individuals spend below the poverty line is an important dimension in order to design social policies to fight against poverty. The literature is currently aiming to construct a consistent aggregate measure of poverty over time that takes into account individual income lifetime profiles. It is however, far from clear which aspects of the specific patterns of poverty spells should be included. Using longitudinal data for Spain, this paper shows that the effect of spell recurrence on poverty dynamics is relevant. Poverty exit and re-entry rates vary not only with personal or household characteristics but also with spell accumulation and the duration of current and past spells. In general, our main findings support that an aggregate intertemporal poverty index should incorporate full individual poverty lifetime trajectories accounting for both poverty and non-poverty spell durations.     

SIMILARITY JUDGMENTS AND ANOMALIES IN INTERTEMPORAL CHOICE

This article demonstrates that choices based on similarity judgments will exhibit not only common ratio and reflection effects under uncertainty but also common difference and reflection effects in intertemporal contexts.     

Goal orientation and variety seeking behavior: The role of decision task

This research conducted two experiments to examine the interaction effect of decision task (sequential choices vs. simultaneous choices) and goal orientation (prevention focus vs. promotion focus) on variety-seeking behavior. In the sequential choices for sequential consumption condition (consumers buy one item at a time for each consumption occasion), promotion-focused consumers tend to select a greater variety of items (a higher extent of variety-seeking) than prevention-focused consumers. In contrast, in the simultaneous choices for sequential consumption condition (consumers buy several items at a time for each following consumption occasion), prevention-focused consumers tend to select a greater variety of items (a higher extent of variety-seeking) than promotion-focused consumers.     

Life cycle welfare: evidence and conjecture

At a point in time subjective well-being is positively related to income; over the life course subjective well-being is constant despite substantial growth in income. This paradox is explained by new evidence on consumption aspirations. At a point in time aspirations vary fairly little by income level; over the life cycle, aspirations increase about in proportion to income. These shifts in aspirations also affect assessments of past and future well-being in such a way that the choices underlying behavior (based on what psychologists call “decision utility”) turn out not to have their expected welfare effects (experienced utility). Of the two influences shaping consumption aspirations – comparisons with others and with one’s past experience – the former appears more salient early in the life cycle and the latter, later on.     

Combining Stated and Revealed Preference Data to Construct an Empirical Examination of Intrahousehold Bargaining

Most analysis of intrahousehold decisions has been conducted using aggregate revealed preference data where preferences of individual agents are never observed, only the household consumption outcomes are observed. We examine household behavior in a bargaining framework by combining stated preference information from individual members of the household with revealed preference information on the household’s actual choices. The resulting model provides information on the degree to which the decision is the result of a bargaining process as well as information on the factors affecting bargaining power.

ON THE SOCIAL DIMENSION OF TIME AND RISK PREFERENCES: AN EXPERIMENTAL STUDY

When explaining risk taking, intertemporal allocation, and distributing behavior, economists rely on risk, time, and other-regarding preferences but offer no guidance on how these three crucial aspects are interrelated. We report on an experiment exploring such interrelation. For this sake, we compare evaluations of several prospects, each of which allocates certain or risky and immediate or delayed payoffs to the actor and to another participant. We find that individuals are self-oriented as to social allocation of risk and delay and other-regarding with respect to expected payoffs . ( JEL C91, D63, D81)     

RELIABILITY OF STATED PREFERENCES FOR CHOLERA AND TYPHOID VACCINES WITH TIME TO THINK IN HUE,VIETNAM

We examine the effect of giving respondents time to think about their stated choices (SC) in a survey of cholera and typhoid vaccine preferences in Hue, Vietnam. Because neither vaccine is widely available in Vietnam, we used the SC approach (a stated preference technique) and gave half of our respondents overnight to think about their choices to make the hypothetical valuation scenario as similar to a real‐life choice situation as possible. Respondents who were given extra time made fewer choices that violated internal validity tests of utility theory, and had lower average willingness to pay (WTP), confirming a result found in similar studies in the contingent valuation literature. (JEL D12, I18, C25)     

Impulsive consumption and reflexive thought: Nudging ethical consumer behavior

The paper deals with impulsive consumption and highlights the roles that two aspects of reflexive thought (namely self-control and self-image motives) play in intertemporal decisions. While self-control can inhibit individuals from consuming impulsively, self-image motives can induce impulsive consumption. Based on recent neuroscientific findings about ‘wanting’–‘liking’ dissociations, the paper presents the cue-triggered ‘wanting’ mechanism as one potential explanation for the occurrence of such impulsive consumption. Utilizing the knowledge of this mechanism and acknowledging both aspects of reflexive thought, the paper expands on three libertarian paternalistic means to foster an ethical way of impulsive consumption: strengthening willpower, reducing impulsive desires to consume, and guiding impulsive behavior in ethical directions by making salient certain self-images that favor ethical consumption.     

I am getting tired: Effort and fatigue in intertemporal decision-making

Evidence on effort-demanding tasks suggests that exerting effort is fatiguing and that the accumulation of fatigue negatively affects the performance on both simultaneous and sequential tasks. This paper introduces the notion of fatigue by assuming that a worker has a limited amount of renewable resources that are depleted when effort is exerted. As multiple equilibria and thresholds can emerge, the optimal intertemporal allocation of effort depends both on the fatigue accumulated by the worker and on the wage rate chosen by the firm. A principal should take this into account, because choosing a wage rate that equals the marginal product value is, in general, suboptimal. This holds even if the worker is expected to exert constant effort over time.     

CONSUMPTION SPENDING AND THE PAPER-BILL SPREAD: THEORY AND EVIDENCE

This paper explains recent findings that the paper-bill spread helps forecast consumption spending using an intertemporal optimizing model of consumption and portfolio allocation. The spread is simply the opportunity cost in terms of foregone future consumption of holding government debt rather than higher yielding private debt. Thus, if government debt appears along with consumption in the single period utility function, the spread appears in one of the Euler equations for consumption and asset accumulation. Empirical tests strongly support the model. Finally, including the spread in a rule of thumb model of consumption reduces the importance of non-optimizing behavior. ( JEL E21, E43, C22, C32)     

On intertemporal poverty measures: the role of affluence and want

This paper proposes classes of intertemporal poverty measures which take into account both the debilitating impact of prolonged spells in poverty and the mitigating effect of periods of affluence on subsequent poverty. The weight assigned to the level of poverty in each time period depends on the length of the preceding spell of poverty or of non-poverty. The proposed classes of intertemporal poverty measures are quite general and allow for a range of possible judgements as to the overall impact on a poor period of preceding spells of poverty or affluence. We discuss the properties of the proposed classes of measures and axiomatically characterize these measures.