产品开发价值比较研究

本文通过对产品开发筛选环节的分析,提出了产品开发价值比较研究的问题;在对熵权法用于产品开发价值比较研究的可行性进行充分论证的基础上,运用熵权法及层次分析法对产品开发价值进行了比较研究;继而对运用熵权法和层次分析法进行产品开发价值比较研究的结果进行了分析;并讨论将熵权法和层次分析法同时应用对产品构思筛选准确性的影响,旨在寻求更科学的对产品构思进行筛选的方法。     

基于层次分析法的核电调试人员筛选的评价体系

本文介绍了在层次分析法的基础上建立核电调试人员筛选的评价体系,并对该体系的实证分析方法进行了说明。该方法基于业务能力、健康状况、心理素质、交流沟通和现场环境作为评价指标来建立层次分析模型,构造了比较矩阵和不同准则的方案层判断矩阵,通过计算层次单排序的权向量得到不同调试人员对总目标权值的大小来筛选调试人员。通过实证分析可以看到,层次分析法是对人才评价的有效工具并给出了与实际情况符合有较好的结果。基于实证分析的调试人员筛选评级体系为调试单位提供了一种合适完善的模型,使得调试人员的筛选更加数字化、合理化、公平化。     

中国核电站供应链及其风险研究

基于核燃料和设备的核电站供应链体系是实现核电站连续生产运行的基本保障,因核电站生命周期较长,随着核电企业运行时间的延续,四大核电供应链面临的矛盾,以及核电站上游环节供应链的诸多变化,如供应商倒闭、供应商价格锁定、设备和备件更新换代无法实现直接维修更换等,带来了众多的核电站供应链的风险。核电站要建立一套完善的主动供应链风险管理流程,以识别、分析、定义和规避供应链风险,确保核电站连续高效、安全运行目标的实现。     

CPR1000核电项目档案验收模式

核电项目作为重点建设项目,关系到一个国家的核安全。而作为核电建设过程的历史记录,项目档案验收则是核电站安全运行的依据和保障。因此,关注核电项目档案验收工作十分必要。本文针对CPR1000核电项目档案验收模式进行探讨,为今后核电项目档案验收提供借鉴。     

公路运输提高效率的途径分析

以电子商务的崛起为标志，我国物流运输行业的环境正发生着日新月异的变化。而这种变化也对公路运输行业产生了重大的影响。就目前来看，我国的公路运输仍然存在诸多问题，而最突出的问题就是运输效率的低下。本文通过分析我国公路运输效率低下的具体表现和原因，对我国公路运输的改革提出了一些个性化的建议，希望有助于我国公路运输的发展。     

电力市场化改革背景下我国发电企业竞争力评价模型研究

我国实施电力体制改革在发电侧引入竞争之后,发电企业竞争力成为发电企业、监管层和社会公众普遍关心的问题.本文构造了发电企业竞争力评价模型,整个模型考虑到发电企业的潜在竞争力、现实竞争力以及业绩表现竞争力,建立了评价指标体系,并且以国内上市的发电企业为样本,运用层次分析法、因子分析法、熵权法、综合指数法等方法,进行了竞争力的评价和排序.结果显示,该评价模型、指标体系和所用方法适合我国发电企业.     

福建省生活饮用水放射性核素的γ能谱分析

随着宁德核电和福清核电多台机组的先后投产,福建进入了核电大省的行列,核电站周边生活饮用水的放射性水平受到民众的广泛关注。该文选取福建省核电站周边具有代表性的4个生活饮用水点位及福州、连江2个对照点进行调查,对饮用水中锰-54、钴-58、钴-60、锌-65、锆-95、银-110m、锑-124、铯-134、铯-137、铈-144等人工放射性核素进行了检测,结果表明,6个生活饮用水点位中,这10种人工放射性核素的活度浓度均低于探测下限,未检出,处于正常的环境水平。     

基于熵权的项目管理招投标决策方法及应用研究

本文介绍一种基于熵权的决策方法,该方法充分利用了评价指标及其属性值所包含的信息量.根据熵和熵权的性质,得出与熵权相结合的综合权重,可以判断评价指标及其属性值的合理性.对评价方法本身的风险度量,可以衡量评价结果的可靠性水平.通过实例研究,说明了该方法在项目管理招投标中的具体应用并对其科学性和合理性进行了验证.     

基于模糊熵的商业银行信用风险评估指标选择方法

借鉴评估指标的熵权选择方法，结合模糊数学理论，提出了一种商业银行信用风险评估指标选择方法。该方法针对不同的财务比率指标，通过试算与比较，构造隶属函数，对指标进行无量纲化处理，在“模糊熵”的基础上，计算熵权，用以修正经验权重，根据所获得的综合权重筛选信用评估指标，建立指标体系。     

核电站作业环境因素对人员安全的影响

核电站作业环境因素是影响人员安全的重要因素。不良的环境条件会影响作业的顺利进行，甚至会影响人的健康和安全。本文从核电站几种常见作业环境因素的辨识、作业环境因素对人员安全的影响进行阐述，并结合核电站实际，提出了核电站对作业环境因素的改进对策。     

Urban Risks of Truck Transport of Radioactive Material

Truck transport of radioactive material (RAM), e.g., spent nuclear fuel (SNF), normally maximizes use of Interstate highways, which are safer and more efficient for truck transport in general. In the estimation of transportation risks, population bordering a route is a direct factor in determining consequences and an indirect factor in determining exposure times, accident probabilities and severities, and other parameters. Proposals to transport RAM may draw intense resistance from "stakeholders" based on concern for population concentrations along urban segments but the length of a route segment is also a determinative factor in estimating the transport risks. To quantify the relative importance of these two factors, a potential route for transport of SNF (strict use of Interstate highways) was selected and compared with a modified version that bypassed urban areas. The results suggest that emphasis on Interstate highways minimizes total route and urban segment risks.     

城市低碳交通体系对能源消费结构的影响研究——来自中国十四个城市的面板数据经验

节能减排的重要性已成为国际社会的共识,我国也积极改善城市公共交通体系来控制碳排放。本文搜集了中国十四个城市近10年的面板数据,构建随机效应变系数模型,研究了城市低碳交通体系发展对能源消费结构的影响,研究发现：政府可以利用公共交通定价策略影响消费者偏好,从而实现能源消费结构的优化;城市低碳交通体系中轨道交通对能源消费结构优化有显著性促进作用;公共汽（电）车对能源消费结构的影响会随城市发展程度增加而降低;交通部门可通过限行、限购及加收停车费等方式提高传统汽车购买及出行成本,影响私人汽车保有量,从而减少能源消费结构优化的阻碍。政府应该加大财政补贴力度,补贴由购置补贴转向研发和运营基础设施补贴,改善轨道交通及合理的公共汽（电）车运营体系,提高新能源汽车研发投入,鼓励高能量密度低电耗技术的发展,提高居民对新能源乘用车的需求,优化能源消费结构。     

The Effect of Decisions About Spent Nuclear Fuel Storage on Residential Property Values

National, regional, state, and local surveys have revealed that people have intensely negative images of "nuclear" and "radioactive" technologies, activities, and facilities, as well as associated fears of stigmatization. In light of these perceptions, the debate over where to temporarily store or permanently dispose of spent nuclear fuel (at the reactor site, an interim storage facility, or a permanent repository) provokes immense concern among possible host jurisdictions. To address these concerns, one needs to know if people's subjective opinions conform with the choices they make and are therefore reflected in their economic behavior. Argonne National Laboratory researchers used a hedonic model to complete a study of residential property value dynamics over a 5-year period within a 15-mile radius of two California nuclear power plants. They tracked the economic ramifications of decisions about the spent nuclear fuel stored at those reactors. The study revealed that no significant negative effects on residential property values resulted from a decision to move spent nuclear fuel from wet storage to a dry-cask storage facility or from a request to extend the reactor operating permit (given future changes in the type of nuclear fuel storage facility that would accompany such an extension).     

基于ALTRANS模型的我国生物燃料发展潜力研究

生物燃料作为可再生燃料,其开发和利用将对解决我国能源和环境问题产生积极的作用,但其发展面临着资源和技术两方面的挑战,需将其纳入交通能源和整体能源体系中进行综合性研究和评价,这对科学确立生物燃料发展战略和技术路线具有重要的战略意义。为此,构建了基于MAED和MESSAGE模型的Tsinghua-ALTRANS模型,通过对生物燃料的3类潜力、3层结构情景进行定量分析,识别出发展生物燃料的贡献和所面临的挑战。     

Duties to Future Generations, Proxy Consent, Intra- and Intergenerational Equity: The Case of Nuclear Waste

How does one deal with problems of risk transfer if it is the case that increasing risks to future generations decreases the risks to present generations, and increasing the risks to present generations decreases the risks to future generations? In the case of high‐level nuclear waste and spent fuel, for example, should billions of dollars be spent to secure the wastes and protect future generations, or should the same monies be spent on present‐day needs, under the assumption that future generations will be better able to deal with the waste than we are at present? Although these questions may appear insoluble, they become less so when one recognizes several common ethical and logical errors that beset many discussions of technological risk and duties to future generations. After briefly explaining the grounds for inter‐ and intragenerational equity, this analysis argues for three propositions about many treatments of inter‐ and intragenerational ethics: (1) these discussions often err because they frame policy arguments in terms that ignore rights and focus on maximizing welfare or utility, (2) they err because they frequently frame policy arguments in ways that set inter‐ and intragenerational welfare at odds, when they are not, because they ignore ameliorating practices and the conditions for proxy consent, and (3) they also err because they engage in risk practices that do not match their risk rhetoric.     

碳交易政策下多式联运路径选择问题的鲁棒优化研究

针对碳交易政策下的多式联运路径选择问题,考虑运输时间和单位运费率不确定且其概率分布未知的情况,引入鲁棒优化建模方法对其进行研究。首先利用box不确定集合刻画分布未知的运输时间和运费率,然后在碳交易政策下确定模型的基础上,构建鲁棒性可调节的多式联运路径选择模型,并通过对偶转化得到相对易求解的鲁棒等价模型。实例分析表明,鲁棒模型能较好地处理参数概率分布未知的多式联运路径选择问题,方便决策者根据偏好调整不确定预算水平进行决策。运输时间和单位运费率的不确定性都会影响多式联运路径决策,但是作用机理有所不同。将上述碳交易政策下的模型拓展到其他低碳政策,结果表明多种低碳政策的组合能更好实现多式联运减排。     

A Perspective on Nuclear Waste

The management of spent nuclear fuel and high-level nuclear waste has the deserved reputation as one of the most intractable policy issues facing the United States and other nations using nuclear reactors for electric power generation. This paper presents the author's perspective on this complex issue, based on a decade of service with the Nuclear Waste Technical Review Board and Board on Radioactive Waste Management of the National Research Council.     

Tabu search for the real-world carpooling problem

Carpooling is a flexible shared transportation system which can effectively reduce the vehicle numbers and fuel consumption. Although many carpooling systems have been proposed, most of them lack practicality, veracity, and efficiency. In this paper, we propose a new useful variant model of the long-term carpooling problem which involves multiple origins and one destination. Such problems commonly occur in a wide number of carpooling situations in real-world scenarios. Our work is motivated by the practical needs to solve environmental pollution, parking problems, traffic jams and low utilization of resources. A Tabu search algorithm is proposed in this paper to solve the carpooling problem. The proposed algorithm aims at a wide range of passenger distribution and routing problems. The computational results based on real world user data show the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm. Moreover, we developed a mobile application based on our carpooling model.     

Decision-Making, Time Horizons, and Risk in the Very Long-Term Perspective

Some decisions made today have far-reaching consequences as exemplified by those concerning nuclear power and spent nuclear fuel. The investigation presented here uses a decision theoretic framework in which time horizons and the discounting of negative consequences play significant roles. The results indicated wide variations in the lengths of the planning horizons judged to be adequate not only across a number of activities, including nuclear waste management, but also across groups of subjects (e.g., engineering students, retired people, and nuclear fuel experts). The paper reports typical judgments and correlations between different variables for different groups of subjects. The differences across groups reflect potential sources of conflict, depending in part on different values and different perceptions of more or less uncertain facts. Discounting functions for negative consequences in the future were also established. A range in differences in the speed of discounting were found and illustrated. Furthermore, it was found that substantial proportions in all groups regarded negative consequences related to nuclear waste as nondiscountable. When asked about the effect of time until outcome on acceptable probability of a negative outcome, many subjects used the probability concept in an incoherent way, illustrating the great difficulty in communicating small probabilities in a long-term risk context.     

An inventory control policy for liquefied natural gas as a transportation fuel

In this paper, we study a novel stochastic inventory management problem that arises in storage and refueling facilities for Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) as a transportation fuel. In this inventory problem, the physio-chemical properties of LNG play a key role in the design of inventory policies. These properties are: (1) LNG suffers from both quantity decay and quality deterioration and (2) the quality of on-hand LNG can be upgraded by mixing it with higher-quality LNG. Given that LNG quality can be upgraded, an inventory control policy for this problem needs to consider the removal of LNG as a decision variable. We model and solve the problem by means of a Markov Decision Process (MDP) and study the structural characteristics of the optimal policy. The insights obtained in the analysis of the optimal policy are translated into a simple, though effective, inventory control policy in which actions (i.e., replenishment and/or removal) are driven by both the quality and the quantity of the inventories. We assess the performance of our policy by means of a numerical study and show that it performs close to optimal in many numerical instances. The main conclusion of our study is that it is important to take quality into consideration when design inventory control policies for LNG, and that the most effective way to cope with quality issues in an LNG inventory system involves both the removal and the replenishment of inventories.