Recent Immigrant Settlement in the Nonmetropolitan United States: Evidence from Internal Census Data*

Abstract In the 1990s, studies have documented widespread growth of immigrants in U.S. communities not known as common destinations in the past. This trend has fueled population growth in some nonmetropolitan areas and offset population decline in other areas. In this paper, we examine the implications of recent foreign born in-migration for rural America. Our focus is on a collection of 59 nonmetropolitan counties where growth in foreign born stock offset declines in U.S. native population and resulted in increased local population by 2000. To understand these nonmetropolitan offset counties, we use confidential Census Bureau data that offer us the detailed geography and larger sample size needed to closely examine spatial shifts in the foreign born population, especially those recently arrived. Our findings illustrate dramatic compositional shifts in the populations of these areas, and suggest new demographic complexity in nonmetropolitan areas in the 21^st century.     

Commuting and the rural-urban hierarchy

The purpose of this paper is to consider the relation between commuting and the settlement structure, with particular attention to rural and nonmetropolitan areas. I examined commuting flows between metropolitan central cities, other metropolitan areas, nonmetropolitan places with more than 10,000 people, those with 2500–10000 people, and other rural areas. Despite the deconcentration of population, industry and trade that was especially marked in the 1970s, commuting in 1980 was predominantly toward larger places in the ruralurban hierarchy, and particularly from rural areas and the other metropolitan category to cities. Overall levels of commuting were high, and most were within either nonmetropolitan or metropolitan areas. Smaller nonmetropolitan places particularly had high proportions of both in- and out-commuters. Differences in commuting flows by gender, socioeconomic status and industry were small, but generally in the directions expected on the basis of prior research. The findings reveal a high degree of work-residence interdependence among settlement units in nonmetropolitan America, with social and economic differences in commuting flows representing an important aspect of community structure.     

What Clean Break?: Education and Nonmetropolitan Migration Patterns, 1989–2004

Abstract Recent data suggest that nonmetropolitan America is experiencing an outmigration trend. Between 1998 and 2004, more people have moved out of nonmetropolitan areas than moved into these areas. This net outmigration trend presents a fundamental challenge to nonmetropol‐itan areas and contradicts the predictions of social scientists who argued that the rural renaissance of the 1970s represented a clean break with earlier patterns of internal migration. Using annual data from the 1989– 2004 rounds of the Current Population Survey March Demographic Supplement, this paper analyzes recent trends in metropolitan/nonmetro‐politan migration. It demonstrates that highly educated nonmetropolitan youth are leading contemporary nonmetropolitan outmigration. Contrary to the clean break theory, this paper argues that economic incentives continue to be relevant to current nonmetropolitan/metropolitan migration patterns.     

Fiscal conservatism versus local paternalism: divergent experiences of public housing decline in rural areas of England during the 1980s

This paper examines the differential response of two rural districts of England (Fenland and Waveney) to changes in council house provisioning in the 1980s. It is situated in a decade when major policy shifts in social housing policy were occurring at the national level with local governments devising new social housing strategies in response. Against a fast moving legislative background, the study examines the extent to which Stoker's categorisation of policy-making behaviour helps us to understand the diversity of policy-making influences at work in rural areas. In displaying a resentment of outside influence and a vision grounded in local considerations that offered minimal support for housing association activity, both Fenland and Waveney both exhibited attributes of what Stoker (The Politics of Local Government, second ed., 1991, Macmillan, London) called a ‘traditionalist’, Conservative stance. However, contrasts in the social housing policy of each authority over the decade revealed the limitations of this categorisation. In Fenland, pressures for housing growth led to increasing problems for those on low-incomes. Nevertheless, the District's social housing policy was dominated by fiscal conservatism and a reluctance to maintain financial support for either construction or the maintenance of council housing. By contrast, the social housing policies adopted by Waveney were characterised by a paternalistic desire to maintain a higher level of support for council housing combined with a more overtly critical attitude of central government policy. By identifying different dimensions of ‘traditionalist’ Conservative behaviour, the paper underscores the need for further studies on the role played by local leadership and key actors in policy-making processes.     

Rural gentrification and linked migration in the United States

Although gentrification is a process commonly associated with urban landscapes, rural areas in advanced economies have also experienced gentrification over the past two decades. Largely based on case study approaches, the Rural Studies literature describes transformations in the housing market, changed cultural attitudes toward the environment, political conflicts surrounding land-use planning, and heightened class polarization as outcomes of rural gentrification. The analysis in this paper extends our understandings of rural gentrification in two fundamental ways. First, drawing on US census data from 1990 and 2000, the paper systematically examines gentrification in nonmetropolitan counties across the United States and develops a methodology for identifying areas with similarly strong evidence of gentrification. The second section of the analysis compares the geographic distribution and socioeconomic change in gentrifying counties with the rest of nonmetropolitan America emphasizing the changes in the baby boomer and Latino populations. In so doing, the analysis opens up new possibilities for comparative analysis of gentrification both between and within countries, connects our understandings of rural gentrification to other processes of globalization playing out within rural space, and argues for work on rural gentrification to more explicitly integrate questions surrounding race and ethnicity alongside questions of class.     

Social Isolation and Lethal Violence Across the Metro/Nonmetro Divide: The Effects of Socioeconomic Disadvantage and Poverty Concentration on Homicide*

Abstract This study extends the macro‐level criminological research tradition by examining the links between socioeconomic disadvantage, poverty concentration, and homicide in metropolitan and nonmetropolitan U.S. counties. Most research in this tradition has tested structural theories using urban areas as the unit of analysis. This “urban bias” has resulted in a limited understanding of the social forces driving violence in nonmetropolitan areas. To partially address this problem, we link the literature on the spatial and social organization of nonmetropolitan communities with the social isolation perspective from the urban poverty literature. We hypothesize that the spatial concentration of poverty drives up rates of homicide in both metropolitan and nonmetropolitan areas regardless of levels of socioeconomic disadvantage. Negative binomial regression for 1,746 nonmetropolitan and 778 metropolitan counties suggest that both socioeconomic disadvantage and poverty concentration elevate homicide in metropolitan areas. However, in nonmetropolitan counties only socioeconomic disadvantage has a significant impact. We conclude by discussing the implications of these differential findings for the social isolation perspective.     

SIZE MATTERS:

Previous research explaining macrolevel crime patterns has generally been limited in focus to urban communities. Further, the bulk of this research has narrowly investigated links between socioeconomic deprivation, and to a lesser extent labor market characteristics, and crime rates. Taken together, these two foci reveal important limitations in extant research. First, few studies have examined whether levels of socioeconomic disadvantage impact crime rates in nonmetropolitan settings, despite the fact that some rural communities have high levels of socioeconomic disadvantage and serious crime problems. Second, research on labor markets and crime has assumed that manufacturing industries are uniformly good for communities. Yet an emerging body of research suggests that the size of local manufacturing establishments may have important implications for community socioeconomic well-being, organization, and social control. Drawing from recent research documenting the positive impact small manufacturing firms have on communities, we expect a strong presence of small firms to be associated with low crime rates in nonmetropolitan areas. Moreover, our conceptual framework suggests that the presence of small manufacturing will temper the criminogenic effects socioeconomic disadvantage has on crime rates. Based on data from 1,731 nonmetropolitan counties, our findings lend strong support to these expectations. The implications of these findings for theory and research on aggregate crime rates are discussed.     

Non-engagement of Mid-aged and Elderly Residents in Rural Civic Livability Initiatives

In the context of public budget cuts and rural areas facing depopulation and aging, local governments increasingly encourage citizen engagement in addressing local livability issues. This paper examines the non-engagement of mid-aged and elderly residents (45+ years old) in civic initiatives that intend to improve the livability of their community. We focus on residents of depopulating rural areas in the North Netherlands. We compare their engagement with the behavior of residents in other, not depopulating, rural areas, and urban areas. Using logistic statistical analyses, we found that the majority of the aging residents did not engage in civic livability initiatives during the past two years, and one-third of this group had no intention to do so in the future. In all areas, the main reasons for non-engagement were that residents had other priorities, felt not capable of engaging, or felt that the responsibility for local livability belonged to the local government. Furthermore, it appeared that non-engagement was predominantly explained by the unwillingness to engage, rather than by specific motivations or lacking abilities.     

Harvesting Human Capital: Family Structure and Education Among Rural Youth1

Abstract Coleman's (1988) theory of family social capital provides a conceptual framework for assessing the relationship between several dimensions of family structure and school dropout rates among nonmetro-politan youth. This paper evaluates the extent to which higher rural than urban dropout rates are attributable to spatial differences in family structure (e.g., living arrangements, family size, and early childbearing) or economic resources (e.g., poverty) and estimates the differential effects of family structure and poverty on school dropout rates in nonmetropolitan areas, suburbs, and central cities. Data are drawn from the March 1990 Current Population Survey. Results indicate that residential differences in family structure account for a relatively small part of the higher dropout rates found in rural areas. Rural youth's experience with poverty appears to matter more. The educational effects of family structure are nevertheless strong in rural areas, albeit somewhat smaller than in suburban areas, owing perhaps to compensating forms of social capital found in rural areas. The results suggest that studies of dropout behavior—in rural or urban areas—must acknowledge the potentially large role of family structure and economic resources on the educational achievement process.     

Emerging Patterns of Hispanic Residential Segregation: Lessons from Rural and Small‐Town America

The past two decades have ushered in a period of widespread spatial diffusion of Hispanics well beyond traditional metropolitan gateways. This article examines emerging patterns of racial and ethnic residential segregation in new Hispanic destinations over the 1990–2010 period, linking county, place, and block data from the 1990, 2000, and 2010 decennial censuses. Our multiscalar analyses of segregation are framed by classical models of immigrant assimilation and alternative models of place stratification. We ask whether Hispanics are integrating spatially with the native population and whether recent demographic and economic processes have eroded or perpetuated racial boundaries in nonmetropolitan areas. We show that Hispanic residential segregation from whites is often exceptionally high and declining slowly in rural counties and communities. New Hispanic destinations, on average, have higher Hispanic segregation levels than established gateway communities. The results also highlight microscale segregation patterns within rural places and in the open countryside (i.e., outside places), a result that is consistent with emerging patterns of “white flight.” Observed estimates of Hispanic‐white segregation across fast‐growing nonmetropolitan counties often hide substantial heterogeneity in residential segregation. Divergent patterns of rural segregation reflect local‐area differences in population dynamics, economic inequality, and the county employment base (using Economic Research Service functional specialization codes). Illustrative maps of Hispanic boom counties highlight spatially uneven patterns of racial diversity. They also provide an empirical basis for our multivariate analyses, which show that divergent patterns of local‐area segregation often reflect spatial variation in employment across different industrial sectors.     

Poverty in Nonmetropolitan America: Impacts of Industrial,Employment, and Family Structure Variables

Abstract Poverty is more extensive and more severe in nonmetropolitan areas than in metropolitan areas. Here we maintain that the extensive industrial and economic transformations occurring in rural areas have resulted in patterns contributing to these high poverty levels. These transformations, which include an increase in service‐sector employment, in many ways mirror the economic changes that have occurred in the inner city. We maintain that Wilson's model of the inner‐city underclass can be useful in understanding some poverty trends in nonmetropolitan areas. To test the Wilson model, we analyze 1990 census data. The data generally support the model and indicate that the industrial transformation of rural areas leads to changes in the gender structure of the labor force, and to a more unbalanced sex ratio. These changes, in turn, result in adjustments to family structure, including an increase in the percentage of female‐headed households. This process results in higher poverty levels.     

Regulatory fit effects on perceived fiscal exchange and tax compliance

Paying taxes can be considered a contribution to the welfare of a society. But even though tax payments are redistributed to citizens in the form of public goods and services, taxpayers often do not perceive many benefits from paying taxes. Information campaigns about the use of taxes for financing public goods and services could increase taxpayers’ understanding of the importance of taxes, strengthen their perception of fiscal exchange and consequently also increase tax compliance. Two studies examined how fit between framing of information and taxpayers’ regulatory focus affects perceived fiscal exchange and tax compliance. Taxpayers should perceive the exchange between tax payments and provision of public goods and services as higher if information framing suits their regulatory focus. Study 1 supported this hypothesis for induced regulatory focus. Study 2 replicated the findings for chronic regulatory focus and further demonstrated that regulatory fit also affects tax compliance. The results provide further evidence for findings from previous studies concerning regulatory fit effects on tax attitudes and extend these findings to a context with low tax morale.     

Local Economic Development in an Age of Devolution: The Question of Rural Localities*

Abstract There is limited recent research on the strategies that rural local governments are employing in the face of changing intergovernmental relationships, especially in relation to local economic development. This paper draws on data from a survey of local governments in the Ohio River Valley Region that includes a mix of localities on the urban‐rural continuum, to empirically address three issues. First, we examined the extent to which county governments have undertaken local economic development initiatives as well as other, extra‐economic activities designed to improve community well‐being. Second, we assessed the extent to which rural county governments vary from urban counties in their activities and available resources. Finally, we employed logistic regression models of factors associated with use of development strategies to determine the relationship between rurality and local development policy activities. The results show that rural counties are less likely than urban counties to undertake various economic development activities, with observed urban‐rural differences largely attributable to county socioeconomic disadvantages, such as poverty and education.     

Farming Patterns,Rural Restructuring,and Poverty: A Comparative Regional Analysis1

Abstract This study examines the contentions of two recent perspectives on rural economic organization and their implications for poverty. Building from (1) agrarian political economy and (2) the rural restructuring literatures, we present a comparative regional analysis of how farming patterns and other aspects of economic organization differentially affect poverty in rural areas. Data are based on 2,349 nonmetropolitan U.S. counties for the 1970–1980 period. Nonhired labor-dependent, family-operated farming (smaller and larger family farming) has relatively similar cross-regional effects on rural poverty. The effects of industrialized farming are more spatially variant, suggesting that this type of farming is integrated into regional political economies in different ways than are simple commodity units. However, farming patterns have only a small effect on rural poverty relative to other factors, such as the local employment structure, characteristics of the population, and geographic location. The results of this study highlight the need to move beyond the farm sector to understand both the dynamics of this sector and the socioeconomic consequences of rural restructuring. More broadly, the study underscores the importance of testing general sociological relationships under different spatial (e.g., regional) contexts.     

Population Redistribution Trends in Nonmetropolitan America, 2010 to 2021☆

Given the turbulent conditions of the early 21st century and the release of data from the 2020 Census, it is an appropriate time to examine contemporary population redistribution trends in nonmetropolitan America. Analysis centers on the major demographic components of population change: migration; and natural increase. The analysis demonstrates that the turbulent economic, social, and now epidemiological conditions of recent years altered traditional demographic trends in nonmetropolitan America. For the first time in history, nonmetropolitan America lost population between 2010 and 2020 because of shifts in migration trends and diminishing natural increase. In contrast, post-censal population estimates suggest that nonmetropolitan population gains exceeded those in metropolitan areas for the first time in 50 years between 2020 and 2021. The recent widespread nonmetropolitan population increases are the result of substantial net migration gains that offset the growing natural decrease fostered by COVID-19. Sustained net migration gains in nonmetro areas provides a demographic lifeline to many counties that would otherwise face depopulation because of accelerating natural decrease. Whether these migration patterns can be sustained remains to be seen.     

PRESSURE GROUPS AND PUBLIC EXPENDITURES: THE FLYPAPER EFFECT RECONSIDERED

A model of government budgeting is developed in which lobbying by interest groups can divert the allocation of funds away from the one preferred by the median voter. The model is applied to state and local governments to show that the "flypaper effect"–the tendency for lump-sum grants to increase public expenditures by more than an equivalent increase in the community's pretax income–can be explained without the customary assumption of voter fiscal illusion. Furthermore, the model predicts variation in the extent of the flypaper effect among expenditure categories, as found in previous empirical studies.     

Farm Structure and the Economic Well-Being of Nonmetropolitan Counties

Abstract The Goldschmidt thesis (1947, 1978) maintains that increasing farm size in the United States has undermined the well-being of rural communities. Recent studies have cast doubt on this, however. We analyze data for nonmetropolitan counties in the United States, and also incorporate indicators of the nonfarm economic sector into our analysis so that we can explore the net effect of farm structure on well-being. In addition, we distinguish nonmetropolitan counties by their level of farm dependency. Our study fails to support the Goldschmidt thesis.     

Moving Up in Rural America: Economic Attainment of Nonmetro Latino Immigrants

Rapid Hispanic population growth represents a pronounced demographic transformation in many nonmetropolitan counties, particularly since 1990. Its considerable public policy implications stem largely from high proportions of new foreign‐born residents. Despite the pressing need for information on new immigrants in nonmetro counties and a bourgeoning scholarship on new rural destinations, few quantitative analyses have measured systematically the social and economic well‐being of Latino immigrants. This study analyzes the importance of place for economic well‐being, an important public policy issue related to rural Hispanic population growth. We consider four measures of economic mobility: full‐time, year‐round employment; home ownership; poverty status; and income exceeding the median national income. We conduct this analysis for 2000 and 2006–2007 to capture two salient periods of nonmetro Hispanic population growth, using a typology that distinguishes among nonmetropolitan areas by the categories of “traditional” immigrant destinations concentrated in the Southwest and Northwest, “new” immigrant destinations to capture recent and rapid Hispanic population growth in the Midwest and Southeast, and “all other” rural destinations as a reference category representing more typical nonmetro population trends. We also compare our results to those for metropolitan destinations. We find that place type matters little for stable employment but more so for wealth accumulation and income security and mobility. Compared with urban Latino immigrants, rural Latino immigrants exhibit higher rates of homeownership as well as greater likelihoods of falling into poverty and lower likelihoods of earning a measure of U.S. median income. From 2000 to 2006–2007, rural‐urban differences deteriorated slightly in favor of urban areas. We conclude by discussing implications of these findings and those of addressing rural immigrant economic well‐being more generally.     

Urban-rural boundary conflicts: the reshaping of Israel's rural map

This study examines boundary conflicts between urban and rural local authorities in Israel. It focuses on three basic questions: what are the reasons for urban-rural boundary conflicts?; do these reasons vary across time and space?; and, what are the underlying structural causes that shape these variations? The study is based on a quantitative and qualitative analysis of boundary conflicts involving Israeli rural regional councils between the 1960s and the early 1990s. It demonstrates that macro-societal structural processes are at the root of urban-rural boundary conflicts. Mounting pressures on regional councils have arisen from political, economic and ideological processes which have shaken the foundations of the councils and produced unprecedented pressures on their territory. Processes of counter-urbanization have played a substantial role, but have been deeply intertwined in a political-ideological context. These processes may either lead to: (1) further fragmentation and contraction of areas managed by rural local government; (2) transformation of rural local governments into entities of a new type; or (3) formation of new forms of urban-rural regional co-operation.     

Diffusion of an Economic Development Policy Innovation: Explaining the International Spread of Casino Gambling

This study uses an event history analysis to examine the factors that lead to the adoption of casino gambling among 13 nations around the world. Specifically, measures of fiscal stress, economic development, tourism, religiosity, and income levels are tested for their relationship to national decisions to legalize casino gambling. This study found that economic development needs, as measured by general unemployment rates, were associated with the casino legalization decisions of national governments. Higher unemployment rates were more likely in the years that nations legalized casino gambling. Religiosity, measured by frequency of church attendance, was also found to be a significant barrier in legalization decisions. Measures of fiscal stress, tourism, and income levels were not found to have significant relationships with the legalization decisions. This is interesting because these factors are often cited in case studies, media reports, and the statements of politicians during legalization processes. This study points to the need for further research in several areas. Further exploration of potential explanatory variables and more appropriate measures of currently theorized factors is warranted. Another area for further research is the seeming contradictory findings of multiple statistical analyses and multiple anecdotal findings of the impacts of fiscal stress on the casino legalization decision.