Relationship between surplus energy and body weight in fish populations

Summary This paper theoretically analyses the relationship between surplus energy, which is available for either somatic growth or reproduction, and body weight. From the data of metabolism and growth of the biwamasu,Oncorhynchus rhodurus, obtained by Miura et al., a Bernoulli's differential equation is induced to represent the relationship between body weight and the sum of surplus energy and active metabolic rate. Solving this equation gives the amount of surplus energy,f(W_x), as follows:f(W_x) = (αW _x ^1−γ +β^1−γ)^1/(1−γ)−W_x, in which α, β and γ are constants andW _x is body weight at agex. The function is applied to ten fish populations and consequently it is found to be useful for a wider age range and a wider variety of fishes than the conventional function.     

A preliminary study on quantitative relations among growth, reproduction and mortality in fishes

Summary As a quantitative approach to the life histories of fishes, the present paper attempted to predict a relation among reproduction, growth and mortality numerically with a technique of control theory, the discrete maximum principle. A method for predicting the relation was derived on the postulate that natural selection maximized the net reproductive rate subject to a few constraints. The derived method was applied to Atlantic cod and Atlantic herring populations in the Southern Gulf of St. Lawrence as numerical examples. The examples demonstrated that the theoretical reproductive effort and body weight were well consistent with the observed ones every age but the theoretical survival rates were slightly different from the observed ones. For the reasons mentioned below, however, it should be interpreted that the examples rather support the adopted postulate to a certain degree. First, in general, it is very difficult to obtain good estimates of the rates with traditional methods. Second, intense fishing pressure possibly changes the life history parameters to some extent in fish populations. Moreover, the examples also suggested that, to examine the postulate in further detail, similar analyses had to be made with the data of many fish populations on which intense fishing pressure had not been exerted.     

The momentum of mortality change

Mortality change is not usually assigned much importance as a source of population growth when future population trends are discussed. Yet it can make a significant contribution to population momentum. In populations that have experienced mortality change, cohort survivorship will continue varying for some time even if period mortality rates become constant. This continuing change in cohort survivorship can create a significant degree of mortality-induced population change, a process we call the ‘momentum of mortality change’. The momentum of mortality change can be estimated by taking the ratio of e ₀ (the period life expectancy at birth) to CAL (the cross-sectional average length of life) for a given year. In industrialized nations, the momentum of mortality change can attenuate the negative effect on population growth of declining fertility or sustained below-replacement fertility. In India, where population momentum has a value of 1.436, the momentum of mortality change is the greatest contributor to its value.     

Population decline induced by gonorrhoea and tuberculosis transmission: Micronesia during the Japanese occupation, 1919–45

The islands of Yap in Micronesia survived a period of severe depopulation during the Japanese occupation from 1919 to 1945. Using data from historical documents, supplemented by ethnographic evidence, we calibrate a simulation model that accounts for this phenomenon. Our model tracks the reproduction histories of a synthetic cohort of women in Yap, including effects of infertility due to gonorrhoea as well as tuberculosis mortality, and predicts the net reproduction rate (NRR). In this particular case and throughout history, human migrations and associated social and cultural interactions have frequently been accompanied by dramatic changes in patterns of disease transmission and substantial demographic consequences. Despite the broad emphasis on mortality as a measure of demographic consequences in the historical and contemporary literature, there are important instances where life expectancy at birth, fertility rates, and total population size are important demographic consequences. We find that gonorrhoea may have significantly contributed to depopulation during the Japanese occupation of Micronesia, due to repeated infections and high risk of sterility. Results of our model suggest that gonorrhoea alone could have reduced the net reproduction rate by 82%, whereas deaths from tuberculosis may have contributed to a 17% decline.     

Delayed maturation in the colonial coralGoniastrea aspera (Scleractinia): whole-colony mortality, colony growth and polyp egg production

The present study examines (1) the cost of reproduction on colony growth, and (2) relationships among sexual maturity, whole-colony mortality rate and colony growth rate inGoniastrea aspera free from external influences by macrobenthos. Survival of colonies in permanent plots was followed for two years. Egg production by polyps in colonies collected just before the first spawning of a year was estimated by dissecting the polyps. Growth of the colonies (increase in number of polyps) was followed over one annual reproductive cycle. The cost of egg production on colony growth was apparent through colony ontogeny: (1) immature colonies had a greater annual growth rate than mature colonies, but produced almost no eggs; (2) in mature colonies, growth rate was negatively correlated with NE/PV (number of eggs per polyp volume mm^-3). Annual whole-colony mortality was high in colonies with fewer than11 polyps in initial colony size, while mortality was extremely low once a colony grew beyond this size. This critical size for low whole-colony mortality was much smaller than the colony size (40 polyps) which would attain maturity one year later. Age at maturity was estimated as six years. While survival to maturity may be a selective force for the evolution of delayed maturation, the present data suggest that high colony fecundity, achieved after a long growth period as an immature colony, and an abrupt decrease of colony growth rate after maturation are the crucial forces.     

Alternative models for species replacement of pelagic fishes

Summary It is well known that the stock abundance of a pelagic fish usually fluctuates and a species of pelagic fish which was dominant in abundance is often taken over by another species. Several alternative models for species replacement among pelagic fishes are presented and analyzed: (A) environmental fluctuation, (B) strong density-dependent reproduction rate, (C) a two-species system with phase variation (density-dependent change of life history traits), (D) a two-species competition system with environmental fluctuation, (E) cyclic advantage relationship among three competitive species, and (F) a two-prey, one-predator system. Different model requires different number of species for the occurrence of species replacement. Three criteria to test each hypothesis from qualitative properties of species replacement are proposed. Possible management policies to decrease the amplitude of stock fluctuations are discussed. As a result, if the catching effort to mackerels which is rare now is large, or if the catching effort to the sardine is still large when it begins to decline in stock abundance, fisheries may be strong destabilizing effect on the stock abundance.     

The uncertain lifetime and the timing of human capital investment

I examine the effects of mortality decline on fertility and human capital investment decision of parents taking into account the uncertainty about child survival. I propose a model, where parents decide on their fertility before the uncertainty is realized, but they choose to invest only in human capital of their surviving children. The model implies a positive relationship between mortality and fertility and a negative one between mortality and educational investment. It has been argued elsewhere that as, in reality, most of the mortality decline occurred in infancy, it should not affect the human capital investment decision, which comes later in life. Thus, increased survival chances should not promote growth by raising the human capital investment. This paper argues the contrary and proposes a mechanism where mortality decline at any age before the teen years can promote growth by raising human capital investment regardless of the timing of the educational investment.      

A tentative discussion on the reproduction of population in China]

Population reproduction is a physiological phenomenon necessary to continue the human race, replacing the older generation with a new one. Population reproduction is also closely related to material production. Both are mutually restricted and supportive of each other. Population reproduction can be divided into 2 types: 1) short life span and rapid generation replacement or high birth rate and high mortality rate, and 2) long life span and slow generation replacement or low birth rate and low mortality rate. Since 1949 China has significantly reduced the mortality rate because of the improvement of our health system and working conditions and the increased living standard. The birth rate, however, still remains high because we are a developing country and our levels of education, science, and technology are quite low. This intermediate stage of low mortality rate but high birth rate also existed in most developed countries for several decades. China's large population and high population growth rate severely inhibit the development of social production and the achievement of the "Four Modernizations." The only way to resolve this contradiction of population reproduction and development of productivity is to control the population growth. Family planning and advocation of 1 child per couple are important strategic tasks in realizing the "Four Modernizations."     

Long‐Term Population Projections and the US Social Security System

According to a report recently issued by the Technical Panel for the US Social Security Administration, the long‐term financial outlook for the system is worse than previously thought. The worsening projected by the panel in the long‐run funding imbalance of the Social Security System is mostly due to the recommendation by the panel to add an extra four years to the currently projected increase in life expectancy by 2075: from 81.8 years to 85.9 years. The panel recommended no change in the current intermediate projected long‐run TFR of 1.9 and net immigration of 900,000 persons per year. The recommendation to increase the projected gains in life expectancy was based on international trends as well as on historical trends in the United States and the absence of biological evidence ruling out such gains. Industrial countries have a history of under‐predicting the growth of their elderly population, and it is expected that large mortality adjustments may be needed in the projections for public pension programs also in industrial countries other than the United States.     

The new point in population theory: some questions in the current demographic textbooks]

The current population theory in China emphasize that human reproduction must keep pace with the production of goods and services. The author of this paper challenges this theory and believes that the relationship between these two kinds of production, human reproduction should take the principal place. Production of goods and services must first meet the needs of people. Keeping population growth in pace with production of goods and services is of secondary importance. The demographic transition from high fertility and high mortality to low fertility and low mortality in developed country was not caused by poverty, hunger, and surplus of the labor force, and it was not the end result of forcing population growth to stay in pace with material production. Increasing productivity to provide abundant goods depend on improving the quality of the population. When the purpose of consumption is not only for survival, demands for material goods and leisure will take precedence over demands for children. An-emphasis on keeping population reproduction in pace with the production of goods and services tends to ignore the importance of increasing productivity which is the key to the improvement of living standards.     

Generation carryover of a fraction of population members as an animal adaptation to unstable environmental conditions

A heterogeneous life cycle of individuals in a population was examined on its adaptive significance to an unstable environmental condition. The trend of population growth was simulated by a simple mathematical model in which a part of population in a certain generation was carried over to the next generation without participating in the reproduction. With the increase of the rate of carryover of individuals to the next generation the population fluctuation tended to be stabilized. A minute fraction of population is carried over, the effect is very large to prevent the population decline at a sequence of adverse environmental conditions. The population level increased greatly depending upon the extent of environmental change as far as the rate of carryover took an intermediate value. The optimum proportion of members to be carried over to the next generation was determined by the extent of environmental change and its frequency of occurrence.     

Generation carryover of a fraction of population members as an animal adaptation to unstable environmental conditions

Summary A heterogeneous life cycle of individuals in a population was examined on its adaptive significance to an unstable environmental condition. The trend of population growth was simulated by a simple mathematical model in which a part of population in a certain generation was carried over to the next generation without participating in the reproduction. With the increase of the rate of carryover of individuals to the next generation the population fluctuation tended to be stabilized. A minute fraction of population is carried over, the effect is very large to prevent the population decline at a sequence of adverse environmental conditions. The population level increased greatly depending upon the extent of environmental change as far as the rate of carryover took an intermediate value. The optimum proportion of members to be carried over to the next generation was determined by the extent of environmental change and its frequency of occurrence. Contribution from the Entomological Laboratory, College of Agriculture, Kyoto University, No. 451.     

The momentum of mortality change

Mortality change is not usually assigned much importance as a source of population growth when future population trends are discussed. Yet it can make a significant contribution to population momentum. In populations that have experienced mortality change, cohort survivorship will continue varying for some time even if period mortality rates become constant. This continuing change in cohort survivorship can create a significant degree of mortality-induced population change, a process we call the 'momentum of mortality change'. The momentum of mortality change can be estimated by taking the ratio of e0 (the period life expectancy at birth) to CAL (the cross-sectional average length of life) for a given year. In industrialized nations, the momentum of mortality change can attenuate the negative effect on population growth of declining fertility or sustained below-replacement fertility. In India, where population momentum has a value of 1.436, the momentum of mortality change is the greatest contributor to its value.     

Smallpox and Epidemiological-Demographic Change in Europe: The Role of Vaccination

The relationship between smallpox epidemics, overall mortality and population growth, as reflected in an excess of births over deaths, has been examined with regard to the main sources of evidence from different parts of Europe. Epidemiological-demographic changes concomitant with different phases in the introduction of immunisation against the disease have been assessed in the light of evidence from records showing some causes of death as well as numbers of burials. By the eighteenth century; smallpox epidemics appear to have become predominant as an influence on fluctuations in overall mortality in much of Europe. Evidence is reviewed which suggests that although inoculation had probably protected many from smallpox after the mid-eighteenth century, to an extent that could have reduced overall mortality, vaccination enthusiastically promoted after 1800 had a dramatic epidemiological-demographic impact. Data from many sources have been summarised and indicate that the disease was virtually brought under control in North Western Europe during the course of the nineteenth century. Smallpox had probably caused between 8 and 20 per cent of all deaths directly in eighteenth-century Europe as well as unquantifiable secondary and associated morbidity and mortality. The removal of such a deleterious disease from a chain of infections affecting the population at this time, accounted for much of the increasingly more important role of mortality decline as the significant factor in demographic change. The evidence is circumstantial, but suggests that the unprecedented population growth of the early decades of the nineteenth century could in large part have been due to the control of smallpox through vaccination measures. The virtual elimination of the disease as a killer in Europe by the end of the century, following legislation and revaccination programmes was a unique achievement with further consequences for sustained population growth and improvements in health which for many were the only source of improvements in the standard of life.     

Genetic changes of life history and behavioral traits during mass-rearing in the melon Fly,Bactrocera cucurbitae (Diptera: Tephritidae)

Quantitative genetic studies for life history and behavioral traits are important in quality control for insect mass-rearing programs. Firstly, a brief history of quality control in mass-reared insects is described. Next, the differentiation of many traits of wild and mass-reared melon flies,Bactrocera cucurbitae, in Okinawa is reviewed, and the factors which have caused variation in these traits are considered. As artificial selection pressures are thought to be more important than inbreeding depression and genetic drift in the mass-reared strain of the Okinawan melon fly, two artificial selection experiments were conducted to evaluate genetic variations and genetic correlations among life history and behavioral traits. These are divergent selections for age at reproduction and for developmental period. The genetic relationship among 5 traits, i.e. longevity, age at reproduction, developmental period, circadian period, and time of mating was clarified and discussed in relation to genetic changes of traits during the mass-rearing. The results suggest that the genetic trade-off relationships between traits should be taken into account in mass-rearing programs.     

Parental survival data: Some results of the application of Ledermann's model life tables

Summary Ledermann's one- and two-parameter model life tables are used in order to summarize and compare adult mortality estimates derived from parental survival data, and also to link parental survival with child survival data. The Ledermann models provide an alternative to the logit model used by Brass and Hill. Examination of life tables derived from actual child and adult mortality estimates reveals that although the two types of models yield similar overall levels of mortality, they show marked differences in the estimated patterns by sex and age. It has not been possible to disentangle completely how much of this divergence is due to the models themselves and how much to inadequacies in the data available. Finally, we question whether it is always wise to establish a full life table from child and adult mortality estimates when these are based on data which refer to different periods of exposure to the risk of dying, without allowance for possible distortions resulting from mortality change.     

One-host one-parasitoid system: Population dynamics of a zygaenid mothPryeria sinica Moore in an undisturbed habitat

Summary The population dynamics ofPryeria sinica was investigated in an undisturbed area in 1976–1979. We analyzed the process stabilizing the local population by the life table approach for immature stages and the mark-recapture method for the adult stage. Females usually layed about 130 eggs in an egg-mass. The shape of the survivorship curve was convex and was characterized by a relatively low mortality in the egg and larval stages and by a relatively high mortality in the prepupal and pupal stages. The low mortality in the early stage seemed to be not only due to the peculiar life cycle of this species (larvae develop in early spring when natural enemies are not active) but due to their protective nest-webs, larval warning coloration and repellent smell. The high mortality after cocooning was caused by severe parasitization byAgrothereutes minousubae. The number of adult in the population varied by 2.10-fold, which was less than that of other gregarious moths. The life table data and field observations suggest that adult female dispersal would have acted as a stabilizing factor, andA. minousubae as a conditioning factor on the dynamics of the moth population.     

Relating Changes in Life Expectancy to Changes in Mortality

I address the problem of what can be said of changes in mortality rates, if one knows how life expectancies change. I note a general formula relating life expectancies in different ages to mortality and prove that if mortality changes over time following a proportional-hazard model, then there is a one-to-one correspondence between life expectancy at birth and mortality rates. Extensions and an application of these results to the analysis of mortality change are presented.     

文化力对中国生育率下降的重要影响

中国在经济不发达的情况下 ,仅用 30年的时间实现了人口再生产类型从高出生、低死亡、高增长到低出生、低死亡、低增长的历史性转变。中国生育率迅速下降是政策力、经济力、文化力综合作用的结果。其中文化力对生育率的下降起着推动力、导向力、凝聚力和鼓舞力的作用。在文化力日积月累、潜移默化的影响下 ,中国城乡育龄夫妇生育观念正在发生巨大变化 ,且这种变化还远没有完成。     

Analysis and simulation modelling of population dynamics and bioenergetics ofCryptolestes ferrugineus (Coleoptera: Cucujidae) in stored wheat

Summary The consequences of infestation of stored wheat by the rusty grain beetle,Cryptolestes ferrugineus (Stephens) was determined for 222 d at 30°C in 70-1 drums containing wheat at 13.5% moisture content. Temperature, grain moisture, seed damage, germination and weight, dust weight, fat acidity values (FAV), published data on growth, reproduction, survival and cannibalism rates and energy budget were used to develop a computer simulation model to simulate the population dynamics ofC. ferrugineus at 30°C. In the insect-free control system, the fungi,Alternaria alternata decreased,Aspergillus glaucus group andPenicillium spp. increased, probably causing a rise in FAV of the grain. In the insect-infested system,C. ferrugineus could only eat the wheat germ of kernels that had a broken bran layer; 35.7% of the wheat germ or 914.6 J per 100 kernels was consumed. Within two generations after initial introduction,C. ferrugineus reached a peak in numbers and biomass polluting the ecosystem with excreta and remains, and accelerating the deteriorative process observed in the insect-free control system by increasing respiration temperature, FAV and reducing grain germination. After 87 d, the insect population declined to low levels. The simulation model provided a close match between the observed and predicted numbers of insect life stages and bioenergetic variables during the insect population growth phase. Simulation trials suggested that cannibalism of larger compared with smaller immature stages would be more wasteful of developmental time and energy, reducing the number of individuals reaching reproductive age, and that density-dependent fecundity was probably not an important regulatory mechanism ofC. ferrugineus population dynamics in this study. Contribution No. 1314 from Agriculture Canada Research Station, Winnipeg, Manitoba, R3T 2M9, Canada