延边朝鲜族人口迁移的影响因素研究

利用"延边朝鲜族人口负增长"课题组的调查资料,研究朝鲜族人口特征对迁移的影响。结果显示,育龄妇女对稳定朝鲜族人口有重要的作用;15~34岁人口群体迁移倾向最大;未婚者迁移到韩国的倾向比已婚者小;基础教育加大了人们的迁移倾向;拥有农业户口的居民迁移到韩国的倾向较大;家庭人口数与迁移倾向呈正相关。     

新疆生产建设兵团人口迁移研究

新疆生产建设兵团承担着国家赋予的屯垦戍边的职责。兵团人口总数中,省际迁移人口占有重要的地位。文章对1954-2004年间兵团人口迁移变化进行了分析,结果表明:兵团人口迁移的变化过程具有波状起伏大和阶段性两大特征。兵团农牧团场是人口迁入的主要地区。迁移人口以青壮年为主,并维持着较高的男女性别比,迁入人口主要以低文化素质的农村人口为主。兵团大规模移民的最主要原因是兵团经济发展对劳动力数量的巨大需求。人口迁移是兵团经济发展的基础,在兵团建立、发展和维护我国边疆稳定中起到了举足轻重的作用。     

长三角地区人口迁移特征及其空间差异

本文根据第五次人口普查数据,从年龄、性别、受教育程度等角度分析了长江三角洲地区人口迁移的社会学特征,以及迁移人口对长江三角洲地区人口发展的影响,此外还从人口迁移量的分布、省际迁入人口对迁入目的地的选择以及省内人口迁移流向选择等几个方面,系统考察长三角地区人口迁移的空间模式及其特征,为进一步加快长三角地区城市群的建设和发展提供了参考依据。     

金融危机背景下俄罗斯失业人口的迁移研究

论文主要针对近几年内俄罗斯失业者与求职者的迁移问题,还有各地区相关专家的观点进行了综合分析。研究表明,对俄罗斯失业人口而言,实现迁移的重要因素是工资的实质性提高和迁移目的地的住房问题。在危机背景下,俄罗斯各地区的劳动力市场并未做出实质性调整,导致国内失业与求职人口的迁移积极性不高。因此,在促进国家内部流动和缓解劳动力市场的压力方面,国家的经济干预功能还需进一步强化。     

我国特大城市人口结构特点及变动趋势分析——以北京为例

本文基于人口普查数据、宏观人口统计数据和2004~2013年的婚姻登记业务数据,以北京为例,对比分析了本地人口、迁移人口和流动人口的结构特点和发展变化趋势。相对于本地人口,迁移人口普遍具有中心城区户籍以及较高的教育文化程度和职业序列层级,流动人口的结构相对复杂,但在婚配过程中出现明显分化。"两地婚姻"在形成稳定的北京新移民群体的同时,也蕴含着规模可观的潜在随迁人口,这对总体人口结构和老龄化进程具有重要影响并可能产生若干问题和矛盾,相关部门应做好政策应对,促进大城市人口多元化进程的良性发展。     

中国省际人口迁移目的地选择的影响因素及其省际差异——基于第七次全国人口普查数据的分析

利用第七次全国人口普查数据,考察2015～2020年中国省际人口迁移目的地选择的影响因素及其省际差异。研究发现,近年来转变经济增长方式、实施新型城镇化战略等宏观发展环境的巨大变化,造成中西部经济欠发达地区主要人口迁出省份昔日东迁人口“逆势”回迁;区域经济发展差异缩小,导致省际人口迁移目的地选择呈分散化及其区域分布的均衡化。分析其影响因素显示,城乡收入差距等经济因素仍是影响省际人口迁移目的地选择的最主要因素,但其作用已显弱化;空间因素的作用也随着交通条件的改善出现减小趋势;开放度等良好的市场化及人文社会环境已对迁移人口选择目的地表现出一定的影响力。各因素对省际人口迁移目的地选择的影响存在明显省际差异。     

边境地区农村人口流出及影响因素分析——以黑龙江省三个边境县的调查为例

边境地区农村人口流出根源在于地区发展的相对落后。新经济迁移理论等认为影响人口流动决策的因素有个人因素和家庭因素,迁移流动可以改善个人和家庭的社会经济状况。但是人口流出给边境地区农村的可持续发展带来不利影响。本文利用黑龙江省三个边境县人口流出的调查,分析流出人口的个人特征和家庭特征,通过建立Logistic回归模型分析影响人口流出的因素。结果表明,年龄、有无外出经历、婚姻、受教育水平、家庭人口规模和户籍等对人口流出有显著影响。应提高边境地区农村公共服务能力、完善社会福利与保障体系,推动边境地区经济社会发展,缓解边境人口流出的问题,维护边境地区人口和社会稳定。     

四川盆地农村人口婚姻迁移空间演变分析及对策探讨

婚姻迁移是我国农村人口迁移的重要方面,在不同的经济社会背景下,农村人口的婚姻迁移具有不同的空间特征,并随着时代的发展而演变。根据实地调研资料分析四川盆地农村人口六十余年来婚姻迁移的空间演变情况,发现婚迁距离总体呈逐年增大的趋势,受教育程度和婚前从业状况对其婚迁距离有较明显的影响,经济动因在婚迁地域选择中的作用越来越突出。农村人口婚迁空间演变带来的影响中积极性与消极性并存,从宣传引导、政策调整、经济扶持、教育培训等方面提出相应对策措施。     

基于嵌套Logit模型的中国省际人口二次迁移影响因素分析

本文主要根据中国第五次人口普查 1‰抽样数据 ,采用嵌套Logit模型 ,考察和分析1 990年代后期中国省际人口二次迁移的主要影响因素。通过对一般迁移、再迁移和回归迁移的考察分析发现 ,无论是个人因素还是区域经济因素 ,都对其迁移行为具有重要影响 :再迁移者明显受到潜在目的地区域环境因素的吸引 ;而回归迁移者对出生地的经济状况敏感程度较弱 ,但个人因素对其迁移选择有较大影响。     

1990-2000年甘肃主要民族人口重心迁移研究

采用人口重心模型,以第4、第5次人口普查数据库为基础,在地理信息系统(GIS)技术支持下,着重对甘肃省主要民族1990～2000年人口重心迁移特征进行了研究,并在此基础上分析了少数民族人口重心迁移的特点和主要影响因素。     

How High is Hispanic/Mexican Fertility in the United States? Immigration and Tempo Considerations

In this article, I demonstrate that the apparently much higher fertility of Hispanic/Mexican women in the United States is almost exclusively the product of period estimates obtained for immigrant women and that period measures of immigrant fertility suffer from three serious sources of bias that together significantly overstate fertility levels: difficulties in estimating the size of immigrant groups; the tendency for migration to occur at a particular stage in life; and, most importantly, the tendency for women to have a birth soon after migration. When these sources of bias are taken into consideration, the fertility of native Hispanic/Mexican women is very close to replacement level. In addition, the completed fertility of immigrant women in the United States is dramatically lower than the level obtained from period calculations. Findings are consistent with classical theories of immigrant assimilation but are a striking departure from the patterns found in previous studies and published statistics. The main implication is that without a significant change in immigration levels, current projections based on the premise of high Hispanic fertility are likely to considerably exaggerate Hispanic population growth, its impact on the ethno-racial profile of the country, and its potential to counteract population aging.     

Subsequent Migration of Immigrants Within Australia, 1981–2016

Australia is a major immigration country and immigrants currently represent around 28% of the total population. The aim of this research is to understand the long-term consequences of this immigration and, particularly, how migrants respond to opportunities within the country after arriving through the process of subsequent (internal) migration. The focus is on major immigrant groups in Australia, including persons born in the United Kingdom, New Zealand, China and India, and how their patterns differ from persons born in Australia. To conduct this analysis, we have gathered data for a 35-year period based on quinquennial census data. We also obtained birthplace-specific mortality data for constructing multiregional life tables for the immigrant populations. Subsequent migration is important for understanding population redistribution, and the relative attractiveness of destinations within host countries. Our results highlight the importance of subsequent migration and the diversity of migration behaviours amongst different immigrant groups in the context of overall declines in internal migration since 1981.     

The effect of immigration on the internal migration of the native-born population, 1981–1990

This study examines the impact of immigration on the labor market opportunities of the native-born population by looking through the window of migration. We use Current Population Survey data to analyze the one-year migration patterns of Anglos and Blacks and include the presence of recent immigrants in the origin and (potential) destination US states among the covariates. Our departure model employs a logit specification to predict outmigration (vs not) from the state during the year prior to the survey. Our arrival model uses a conditional logit discrete choice specification with sampling among the alternatives to predict destination state. The data are taken from the 1981, 1984, 1987, and 1990 Current Population Surveys. This work adds to other knowledge of the migratory response of workers and sheds light on theories of substitution and complementarity in labor markets. States with high levels of recent immigration are less likely to retain Anglo workers or receive new Anglo interstate migrants, but this apparent substitution effect is partially offset by the presence of long-term immigrant stock. Lower skilled Anglos are more susceptible to this substitution effect than those of higher skill level. In the black population, results are more complex. Lower skilled blacks are less attracted to high immigrant locations, but African-Americans of higher skill level in selected occupations and industries are predicted to be more likely to remain in or choose states with many recent immigrants.     

Transnationalism and Development: Mexican and Chinese Immigrant Organizations in the United States

The literature on development in economics and sociology has tended to focus on capital flows, investments, and, more recently, institutions as key causal factors. International migration, when discussed, is relegated to the status of a symptom of underdevelopment and even a factor contributing to it. The more recent literature on migrant remittances has partially reversed this view by documenting large hard currency transfers made by expatriates to their home countries. This changed approach to migration and development does not go far enough because it does not take into account the organized efforts of immigrant communities themselves. Nor does it consider important developmental synergies produced by the rising interactions between immigrant organizations and sending‐country governments. Using data from a recently completed comparative study, we document these processes for two major countries of out‐migration—Mexico and China. The study compiled inventories of migrant organizations from both countries in the United States, interviewed leaders of the major ones, and complemented these data with interviews with officials and community leaders in each sending country. Profiles of these transnational ties were constructed, exemplifying their increasing density and developmental impact at the local and national levels. Theoretical and policy implications of the findings are discussed.     

基于人口迁流特征的环洞庭湖区县域城镇化的类型分析

改革开放以来,我国人口迁流带有明显异地城镇化的性质,这种跨大区域的异地城镇化对人口移人区和人口移出区的影响是不同的。文章以环洞庭湖区为例,在第六次人口普查县域资料的基础上,定量分析了人口净移出区县域人口净移出率与城镇化率之间的空间关系：按县域人口内移指数——城镇人口净移入与农村人口净移出之间的比例关系,将本区城镇化划分为主动型城镇化、内移为主的被动型城镇化、外移为主的被动型城镇化和衰退型城镇等类型;并探讨了各类城镇化的人口迁流特征、动力机制和综合效益：在此基础上,提出了环洞庭湖区合理推进城镇化的对策。     

The Sources and Diversity of Immigrant Population Change in Australia, 1981–2011

Australia has one of the largest percentages of immigrant populations in the developed world with a highly regulated system of immigration control and regular censuses to track their changes over time. However, the ability to explain the population change through the demographic components of immigration, emigration, and death by age and sex is complicated because of differences in measurement and sources of information. In this article, we explore three methods for reconciling the demographic accounts from 1981 to 2011 for the Australia-born and 18 foreign-born population groups. We then describe how the immigrant populations have changed and what has contributed most to that change. We find that the sources of immigrant population change have varied considerably by age, sex, country of birth, and period of immigration. Immigrants from Europe are currently the oldest and slowest-growing populations, whereas those from elsewhere are growing rapidly and exhibit relatively young population age structures. Studying these patterns over time helps us to understand the nature of international migration and its long-term contributions to population change and composition.     

Selection,selection, selection: the impact of return migration

The evidence on the impact of return migration on the sending country is rather sparse, though growing. The contribution of this paper is in addressing various selectivity problems while quantifying the impact of return migration on wages of returnees using non-experimental data. Using Egyptian household-level survey data, I estimate the wages of return migrants controlling for several selectivity biases arising from emigration choice, return migration choice, labor force participation choice, and occupational choice following return. The findings provide strong evidence that overseas temporary migration results in a wage premium upon return, even after controlling for the various potential selection biases. However, the estimates underscore the significance of controlling for both emigration and return migration selections. Ignoring the double selectivity in migration would overestimate the impact of return migration on the wage premium of returnees, as migrants are positively selected relative to non-migrants, but returnees are negatively selected among migrants.     

互联网、技能偏向与农村流动人口就业

在互联网普及和应用不断提升的背景下,互联网对于农村流动人口就业的影响需要受到高度重视.从技能偏向的视角,在文献梳理的基础上,基于理论假设,建立理论模型和实证模型,基于国家卫生和计划生育委员会流动人口动态监测数据,从农村流动人口的就业数量和就业质量角度,分析了互联网的发展对于流动人口就业的影响.研究发现:互联网所导致的技能偏向,能够显著降低对流动人口就业时间的需求,不利于流动人口就业,但能够显著提升流动人口的就业稳定性,有助于提升流动人口的就业质量.基于研究结论,从提升流动人口信息素养、促进就业与社会融合的双赢以及提升流动人口劳动技能多元化角度,提出了相应的政策建议.     

Migration, trade and wages

This paper analyses the impact of immigration on the UK labour market using the GNP function approach. We find that an increase in the number of unskilled immigrants reduces the wages of unskilled domestic workers, though the quantitative impact of this increase is small. No discernible impact of migration is found for skilled native workers. The results also suggest that unskilled immigrant workers and imports are substitutes in production, whilst skilled immigrant workers and imports are complements.     

中国老年人口迁移的选择性

本文利用2005年全国1％人口抽样调查数据,描述老年人口跨地市级迁移的结构特征。研究发现,我国老年人口依旧把经济发达地带、大城市作为主要迁入地,与青壮年人口迁移方向产生同构。城乡老年迁移人口在迁移动机上存在很大的差别,城市户籍老年迁移人口受家庭因素驱动更大,农村户籍老年人的迁移原因更多元。从对迁入地的影响来看,国内老年迁移人口的迁入地过于集中,将对迁入地的社会医疗服务设施等构成巨大的压力。