A Multicriteria Decision Analysis Model and Risk Assessment Framework for Carbon Capture and Storage

Multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) has been applied to various energy problems to incorporate a variety of qualitative and quantitative criteria, usually spanning environmental, social, engineering, and economic fields. MCDA and associated methods such as life‐cycle assessments and cost‐benefit analysis can also include risk analysis to address uncertainties in criteria estimates. One technology now being assessed to help mitigate climate change is carbon capture and storage (CCS). CCS is a new process that captures CO₂ emissions from fossil‐fueled power plants and injects them into geological reservoirs for storage. It presents a unique challenge to decisionmakers (DMs) due to its technical complexity, range of environmental, social, and economic impacts, variety of stakeholders, and long time spans. The authors have developed a risk assessment model using a MCDA approach for CCS decisions such as selecting between CO₂ storage locations and choosing among different mitigation actions for reducing risks. The model includes uncertainty measures for several factors, utility curve representations of all variables, Monte Carlo simulation, and sensitivity analysis. This article uses a CCS scenario example to demonstrate the development and application of the model based on data derived from published articles and publicly available sources. The model allows high‐level DMs to better understand project risks and the tradeoffs inherent in modern, complex energy decisions.     

Risk analysis models and risk degree determination in new product development: A case study

This paper proposes a risk analysis model to determine the risk degrees of the risk factors occurring in product development processes. The model uses both fuzzy theory and Markov processes on a concurrent engineering (CE) basis. Fuzzy models determine the impact values of the risk factors, and Markov processes determine the probability of risk occurrences. The analysis model is used to compute the risk degrees by multiplying the probability of risk occurrences by the impact value. This study can be utilized for analyzing the influences of risk factors on product development projects and will contribute toward the development of a risk management framework (RMF) to defend against various risk factors. Implications and directions for future research are discussed.     

Nanotechnology,Risk, and Oversight: Learning Lessons from Related Emerging Technologies

Emerging technologies are defined by their novelty and thus are accompanied by significant uncertainty in determining appropriate ways to manage risks associated with them. Yet, there is a body of prior knowledge about risk management and oversight policy for other technologies that have already permeated society. Here, we describe two ways in which prospective oversight policy analysis for emerging technologies can draw upon these past experiences. One involves comparing specific products that have already been marketed to similar products of the emerging technology (cognate‐product approach). The other treats the emerging technology as a body of products and methods and relates it to another technological field that has already emerged and penetrated markets (whole‐technology approach). In this article, we describe our work using these approaches to inform risk and oversight policy for nanotechnology and its products. We draw parallels between biotechnology and nanotechnology as whole fields of development and also between genetically engineered organisms in the food supply and agricultural products of nanotechnology. Through these comparisons, we find that both approaches to historical learning have value and present lessons that could be applied to nanotechnology.     

An Alternative FMEA Method for Simple and Accurate Ranking of Failure Modes

Failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) is a methodology for prioritizing actions to mitigate the effects of failures in products and processes. Although originally used by product designers, FMEA is currently more widely used in industry in Six Sigma quality improvement efforts. Two prominent criticisms of the traditional application of FMEA are that the risk priority number (RPN) used to rank failure modes is an invalid measure according to measurement theory, and that the RPN does not weight the three decision criteria used in FMEA. Various methods have been proposed to mitigate these concerns, including many using fuzzy logic. We develop a new ranking method in this article using a data‐elicitation technique. Furthermore, we develop an efficient means of eliciting data to reduce the effort associated with the new method. Subsequently, we conduct an experimental study to evaluate that proposed method against the traditional method using RPN and against an approach using fuzzy logic.     

改进的QDF与设计FMEA集成框架研究

面对客户多变性及个性化的需求,以顾客为导向的产品设计与同步工程概念受到充分的重视.质量功能展开(QFD)以顾客需求为出发点,通过二元矩阵将产品功能逐一展开,以反映顾客需求.但QFD不能有效地发现产品在生产制造过程中或在产品推出后所隐藏的质量问题.为了克服QFD技术的缺陷,在将模糊TOPSIS方法运用于失效模式与效果分析(FMEA)风险值排序的基础上,提出一个QFD与FMEA整合的框架,将FMEA分析中的风险排序指标CCt配合管理条件的P值与K值,求出一个由FMEA反馈到QFD的权重指数F,以反映其功能上的缺陷.最后,以汽车制动系统的产品开发为例,说明该整合模式的可行性,以期实现QFD与FMEA集成同步产品开发模式.     

An integrated functional representation of concurrent engineering

A time-based competitive strategy is a driving force for enterprises that are striving to be competitive on a global basis. One of the methods to help in the time compression of the product development life cycle is concurrent engineering. Concurrent engineering is not only an approach that is used by the engineering function of the organization, but it is also one that crosses organizational boundaries. In this article an integrated functional model of the concurrent engineering process and its relationship with the product development life cycle is presented. A functional comparison to the traditional engineering approach for product development is also provided.     

Conjoint effects of interacting strategy-making processes and lines of defense practices in strategic Risk Management: An empirical study

The ability to contain adverse effects of major risks under turbulent conditions and exploit the opportunities they present are fundamental concerns in strategic management and various institutions promote enterprise risk management (ERM) to deal with these challenges. Yet, our knowledge about how ERM affects performance and interacts with corporate strategy-making processes is limited. The ERM frameworks impose first and second lines of defense practices to integrate business operations and corporate risk oversight. Emergent strategies generate responsive initiatives and strategic planning coordinates updated actions. Hence, this study analyzes the conjoint effects of these ERM practices and strategy-making processes based on a large corporate sample and finds that ERM practices depend on strategy-making to attain effective risk outcomes. The application of ERM frameworks can, therefore, not be assessed in isolation, but must consider corporate strategy-making. This has implications for the way we conduct research on strategic risk management, how executives approach risk oversight and policy-makers impose formal risk governance requirements.     

Expressing Economic Risk—Review and Presentation of a Unifying Approach

Risk related to economic values is treated by many disciplines, including safety and production engineering, business, and project management. Within each of these and across these disciplines different nomenclature and principles are adopted for describing and communicating risk. The situation is rather confusing. In this article, we review various approaches and concepts that are used to express risk. We present and discuss a unifying approach for dealing with economic risk, with uncertainty being the key risk concept. The approach represents a rethinking on how to implement the Bayesian paradigm in practice to support decision making.     

A Quality Risk Management Model Approach for Cell Therapy Manufacturing

International regulatory authorities view risk management as an essential production need for the development of innovative, somatic cell‐based therapies in regenerative medicine. The available risk management guidelines, however, provide little guidance on specific risk analysis approaches and procedures applicable in clinical cell therapy manufacturing. This raises a number of problems. Cell manufacturing is a poorly automated process, prone to operator‐introduced variations, and affected by heterogeneity of the processed organs/tissues and lot‐dependent variability of reagent (e.g., collagenase) efficiency. In this study, the principal challenges faced in a cell‐based product manufacturing context (i.e., high dependence on human intervention and absence of reference standards for acceptable risk levels) are identified and addressed, and a risk management model approach applicable to manufacturing of cells for clinical use is described for the first time. The use of the heuristic and pseudo‐quantitative failure mode and effect analysis/failure mode and critical effect analysis risk analysis technique associated with direct estimation of severity, occurrence, and detection is, in this specific context, as effective as, but more efficient than, the analytic hierarchy process. Moreover, a severity/occurrence matrix and Pareto analysis can be successfully adopted to identify priority failure modes on which to act to mitigate risks. The application of this approach to clinical cell therapy manufacturing in regenerative medicine is also discussed.     

Risk assessment based on a STPA–FMEA method: A case study of a sweeping robot

Despite rapid developments in the quality and safety of consumer products, the rise of intelligent household appliances, such as sweeping robots, has introduced new safety concerns. Considering “person–product–environment” elements and the complex systems of emerging consumer products, this study presents a new method of risk assessment for consumer products: systems theoretic process analysis (STPA)–failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA). As a case study, this method is applied to the safety control of a sweeping robot. The results suggest that this method can identify all the possible failure modes and injury scenarios among the product components, and the safety constraints in the hierarchical control structure of the interactive system. Moreover, the STPA–FMEA method combines user and environmental factors with the value of product risk events, based on the risk priority number (RPN). This provides an accurate and orderly system to reduce or eliminate the root causes of accidents and injuries. Finally, analysis of unsafe control behavior and its causes can be used to suggest improved safety constraints, which can effectively reduce the risk of some injury scenarios. This paper presents a new method of risk assessment for consumer products and a general five-level complex index system.     

Decision support tool for lean product and process development

Lean and concurrent engineering (CE) are widely acknowledged business process improvement strategies. These strategies can improve processes, reduce costs, and cut waste enabling organisations to remain competitive. Lean manufacturing offers an enterprise-wide methodology that improves reliability and flexibility while reducing lead-times and inventory carrying costs. Companies in manufacturing and service sectors are focusing on integrating lean manufacturing methodology with other applications, so that, all their systems and processes are aligned. This article proposes a CE framework based on application of information technology and object-oriented methodology for lean manufacturing. This approach expected to give manufacturing companies an extra edge in today's competitive market. A case study is presented in this article to demonstrate the effectiveness of CE framework in a machine tool manufacturing company. CE practice was adopted for new products, to align the systems and processes of the company. Product development lead-time was found to decrease by more than 50% compared to similar development projects carried out by the company. The need for rework was found to be negligible and the development cost was reduced considerably.     

Integrating risk and performance management in quality management systems for the development of complex bespoke systems (CBSs)

Abstract

Risk and performance management are at the core of complex bespoke systems (CBSs). CBSs are developed to customer–specified requirements in terms of structure, functionality and conformance. This article examines how risk and performance management are integrated as essential systems in the successful development of projects across multi-organizational functions in complex bespoke system (CBS) organizations. The article argues for the development of a quality management system that consists of two sub-processes: quality control and quality development. Using three case studies from engineering companies, we provide evidence and insights of the way change control, quality development and quality performance are developed in innovating business solutions.     

Quantitative Risk Assessment of the New York State Operated West Valley Radioactive Waste Disposal Area

This article is based on a quantitative risk assessment (QRA) that was performed on a radioactive waste disposal area within the Western New York Nuclear Service Center in western New York State. The QRA results were instrumental in the decision by the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority to support a strategy of in‐place management of the disposal area for another decade. The QRA methodology adopted for this first of a kind application was a scenario‐based approach in the framework of the triplet definition of risk (scenarios, likelihoods, consequences). The measure of risk is the frequency of occurrence of different levels of radiation dose to humans at prescribed locations. The risk from each scenario is determined by (1) the frequency of disruptive events or natural processes that cause a release of radioactive materials from the disposal area; (2) the physical form, quantity, and radionuclide content of the material that is released during each scenario; (3) distribution, dilution, and deposition of the released materials throughout the environment surrounding the disposal area; and (4) public exposure to the distributed material and the accumulated radiation dose from that exposure. The risks of the individual scenarios are assembled into a representation of the risk from the disposal area. In addition to quantifying the total risk to the public, the analysis ranks the importance of each contributing scenario, which facilitates taking corrective actions and implementing effective risk management. Perhaps most importantly, quantification of the uncertainties is an intrinsic part of the risk results. This approach to safety analysis has demonstrated many advantages of applying QRA principles to assessing the risk of facilities involving hazardous materials.     

Consideration of Background Exposures in the Management of Hazardous Waste Sites: A New Approach to Risk Assessment

The current approach to health risk assessment of toxic waste sites in the U.S. may lead to considerable expenditure of resources without any meaningful reduction in population exposure. Risk assessment methods used generally ignore background exposures and consider only incremental risk estimates for maximally exposed individuals. Such risk estimates do not address true public health risks to which background exposures also contribute. The purpose of this paper is to recommend a new approach to risk assessment and risk management concerning toxic waste sites. Under this new approach, which we have called public health risk assessment, chemical substances would be classified into a level of concern based on the potential health risks associated with typical national and regional background exposures. Site assessment would then be based on the level of concern for the particular pollutants involved and the potential contribution of site contaminants to typical background human exposures. While various problems can be foreseen with this approach, the key advantage is that resources would be allocated to reduce the most important sources of human exposure, and site remediation decisions could be simplified by focussing on exposure assessment rather than questionable risk extrapolations.     

Risk Management for Development—Assessing Obstacles and Prioritizing Action

Throughout the process of economic and social development, decisionmakers from the household to the state level are confronted with a multitude of risks: from health and employment risks, to financial and political crises, as well as environmental damages and from the local to global level. The World Bank's 2014 World Development Report (WDR) provides an in‐depth analysis of how the management of such risks can be improved. In particular, it argues that a proactive and integrated approach to risk management can create opportunities for fighting poverty and achieving prosperity—but also acknowledges substantial obstacles to its implementation in practice. This article presents and discusses these obstacles with respect to their causes, consequences, interlinkages, and solutions. In particular, these include obstacles to individual risk management, the obstacles that are beyond the control of individuals and thus require collective action, and, finally, the obstacles that affect the ability of governments and public authorities to manage risks. From these obstacles, this article derives a policy roadmap for the development of risk management strategies that are designed not only around the risk they have to cope with, but also around the practical obstacles to policy implementation.     

Managing stakeholder pressures: Toward a typology of corporate social performance profiles

Why do some firms ignore some stakeholders while courting others? We propose two key drivers of firms' social postures and derive from this analysis a novel typology of corporate social performance (CSP) profiles. Although we expect that other drivers exist, we argue that a useful starting point for understanding any given CSP profile is to consider the pressure exerted on an organization by its stakeholders in conjunction with its level of resource endowment. Our preliminary typology identifies six distinct CSP profiles that reflect different opportunities and risks for stakeholder management: the CSP Vanguard, Opportunist, Generalist, Minimalist, Specialist, and Laggard. All else equal, the first two CSP profiles imply more nonmarket opportunities than risk, whereas we expect Laggards and Specialists to face greater risk in their responses to social and environmental issues. According to our framework, Generalists and Minimalists probably operate between these two extremes of business risk. Our conceptual analysis seeks to advance research and practice for more strategic stakeholder management.     

并行工程方法在生产准备工作中的应用研究

本文在分析并行工程的基本理论方法和传统生产准备工作的各个阶段存在问题的基础上,提出了在航空企业生产准备工作中实施并行工程的基本方案。文中的实际案例表明了该方案的实用性。     

The Use of Risk Assessment to Decide the Control Strategy for Bluetongue in Italian Ruminant Populations

The affiliation, assessment and management of risks is a traditional part of veterinary medicine. In the past, veterinary services involved in this type of activity usually assessed risks qualitatively. However, since the 1990s, quantitative methods have become increasingly important. The establishment of the World Trade Organization in 1994, and the promulgation of its Agreement on the Application of Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures (the "SPS Agreement") led to an increased application of import risk analysis and to significant improvements in the methodology of risk analysis as applied to international trade policy for animals and animal products. However, there was very little development of risk analysis in veterinary fields other than international trade and management of health risks to consumers of animal products and little has been published on its use in the choice and definition of control or prophylaxis strategies for animal diseases. This article describes a quantitative risk assessment, which was undertaken in Italy to help choose an appropriate national response strategy following an incursion of bluetongue, an infectious disease of sheep and goats. The results obtained in this study support the use of risk analysis as a tool to assist in choosing an appropriate animal disease management strategy. The use of risk analysis in the evaluation of disease management strategies also offers advantages in international trade. It makes easier the comparison of different strategies applied in the various countries, and thus facilitates the assessment of equivalence of the guarantees provided by different strategies.     

Structuring Work Distribution for Global Product Development Organizations

This study describes (through an application) a novel approach toward organizing work distribution across globally distributed design and development centers of a product development (PD) organization. While there exist several studies (and modeling applications) for work distribution and allocation for manufacturing and supply chain networks, those related to product development organizations are limited to qualitative suggestions such as offshoring of modular tasks. However, most PD efforts are characterized by significant complexity in information sharing and information dependency among PD tasks (represented by coupling in the system architecture of the firm), thus preventing the identification of modular tasks. Also, redesigning the architecture to introduce modularity has associated risks of costs and product integrity. We demonstrate a methodology to organize work distribution globally in an industrial setting, utilizing the design structure matrix to quantify the system architecture of the firm. Our optimization results show significant cost savings through a restructured PD organization. On analysis of the results, we make two significant observations: (a) while offshoring based on modularity is generally appropriate, it is not the whole answer, as there exists a trade‐off between the efficiency of performing specific PD tasks at the offshore location and the modularity of the task; and (b) firms should successively increase work allocation to the offshore location, benefiting from capability improvements through learning effects.