建筑供应链运作参考模型构建及风险管理——基于EPC模式

供应链管理已在许多行业和领域应用并获得了竞争优势,但由于建筑行业的特殊性,供应链理论在建筑行业还处于探讨阶段。本文在讨论EPC(设计-采购-建造总承包)模式特点的基础上,提出了EPC模式的建筑供应链通用运作参考模型,并提出应用建筑供应链运作参考模型,研究项目运营的风险控制体系,以及风险相关的关键流程进行流程再造并给出示例。     

EPC模式下项目档案分阶段验收实施方法探究

本文通过根据EPC(Engineering Procurement Construction)模式下项目档案管理工作的特点,分析了EPC模式下档案验收面临的问题,针对存在的问题提出了EPC模式下项目档案分阶段验收实施过程中可行的实施方法,便于EPC模式下项目档案验收工作顺利完成。     

浅谈水电站交钥匙(EPC)合同管理

近年来,EPC交钥匙合同模式是国际工程承包市场越来越流行的一种建设模式,工程承包市场中的交钥匙工程项目(即EPC项目)逐渐增多,EPC项目的实施运作,也越来越受到重视。如何运作好EPC项目,成为许多工程承包商的一个重要课题。现结合水电站交钥匙合同管理项目,从EPC合同的角度出发,浅谈了水电站交钥匙(EPC)项目合同管理的要点,包括EPC合同前期形成过程、设计管理、采购管理、质量控制、风险管理等。在编写结构上,首先论述EPC合同前期市场调研及方案实施中的常规分析,然后提出EPC承包商相应的管理要求、并提出风险管理措施。     

EPC总承包项日风险管理分析

EPC总承包将传统模式下业主的部分管理权转移给承包商,在提高项目目标实现质量的同时也增大了项目管理风险。本文通过对EPC总承包风险影响因素进行分析,讨论EPC总承包中经常面临的风险类型,进而提出对于提高EPC总承包风险管理水平应采取的措施和对策,以期为EPC总承包相关研究和实践提供参考。     

基于约束理论的生产系统再造方法

在分析生产系统再造原理的基础上,将约束理论引入生产系统再造过程,提出基于约束的企业生产系统再造方法.这一方法的特点是依据约束理论思想进行约束流程的判别和确定,围绕现有生产系统约束进行再造设计.这一方法还基于约束理论的系统评价指标建立了生产系统再造评价指标, 从而实现对再造效果的动态评价.     

EPC合同条款的风险可控性分析

本文在阐述EPC合同风险概况的基础上,总结分析了EPC合同条款风险来源,并从EPC合同条款的十二个重点方面分析了风险的来源,为EPC总承包合同风险规避指明了方向。     

施工企业出口EPC项目技术标准风险分析

从火电施工企业出口海外电站EPC项目角度,按照EPC项目的过程顺序全面分析国际技术标准所带来的不良风险。     

浅谈大型EPC项目风险管理

大型EPC项目不仅涉及金额大、工期长,而且项目系统本身极为复杂,整个项目生命周期内充满各种风险,项目风险管理的成败决定着项目的成败。但是目前大多数国内工程公司对大型EPC项目的风险管理重视程度远远不够,项目前期不能详细的进行风险识别,更加谈不上风险分析和风险应对以及项目执行过程中风险监控。本文以波兰A2高速公路项目为例,阐述风险管理在大型EPC项目中的应用以及重要性,以期国内工程公司能吸取教训并真正重视大型EPC项目的风险管理。     

建设工程EPC模式与EPCM模式的比较分析

EPC模式和EPCM模式皆为国际工程领域非常普遍的合同类型。业主愿意承受多大的风险、预算控制、业主的组织能力等因素将决定那种模式将被运用到工程实施中。目前,出于种种原因,在国际工程领域,人们开始青睐EPCM这种模式,但是这并不意味着EPCM模式已经取代了EPC模式。     

探讨核电企业EPC总承包模式下的风险管理

我国已经把核电"走出去"升格为国家战略,将核电"走出去"作为中国与潜在核电输入国双边政治、经济交往的重要议题。海外核电项目总承包大多采用EPC总承包模式,核电工程项目具有技术含量高、项目周期长、投资巨大等特点,在EPC总承包模式下,核电工程项目的大部分风险实际上是由总承包商承担。通过对EPC总承包模式的特点以及风险分析提出了相应的风险管理措施,为核电"走出去"建立有力保障。     

Estimating Risk Assessment Exposure Point Concentrations when the Data Are Not Normal or Lognormal

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) recommends the use of the one-sided 95% upper confidence limit of the arithmetic mean based on either a normal or lognormal distribution for the contaminant (or exposure point) concentration term in the Superfund risk assessment process. When the data are not normal or lognormal this recommended approach may overestimate the exposure point concentration (EPC) and may lead to unecessary cleanup at a hazardous waste site. The EPA concentration term only seems to perform like alternative EPC methods when the data are well fit by a lognormal distribution. Several alternative methods for calculating the EPC are investigated and compared using soil data collected from three hazardous waste sites in Montana, Utah, and Colorado. For data sets that are well fit by a lognormal distribution, values for the Chebychev inequality or the EPA concentration term may be appropriate EPCs. For data sets where the soil concentration data are well fit by gamma distributions, Wong's method may be used for calculating EPCs. The studentized bootstrap-t and Hall's bootstrap-t transformation are recommended for EPC calculation when all distribution fits are poor. If a data set is well fit by a distribution, parametric bootstrap may provide a suitable EPC.     

Models for supply chain reengineering

The goal of this paper is to provide a first step in the development of a coherent set of modelling methods for supply chain reengineering. This paper shows that different fields of attention in supply chain management should be approached with different modelling methods. Three modelling methods are presented: the event process chain (EPC) method; the activity chain model (ACM) method; and the GRAI grid method (adjusted for supply chains). EPC modelling focuses on time relationships between primary processes/functions, and is customer oriented. ACM modelling focuses on functions/processes and information flows. GRAI focuses on decision structures and information flows. The three methods are described, and an application of the methods to a case study company is presented. This paper concludes with a comparison of the methods and a discussion of their applicability.     

Energy Performance Contracting in a Competitive Environment*

Energy Performance Contracting (EPC) is an important and effective energy conservation mechanism, under which an energy service company (ESCO) provides an energy‐saving service to its client and shares the resulting energy cost savings. Using a game‐theoretic model, we investigate the impacts of EPC on two competing manufacturers, of which one is more energy‐efficient in production than the other. The less energy‐efficient firm first proposes an energy‐saving sharing contract to the more energy‐efficient firm, who, if accepting the contract, acts as an ESCO that decides the energy‐saving target and helps realize it for the client. Then the firms engage in Cournot competition by producing/selling substitutable products. By solving the equilibrium solutions, we show that under an EPC project, the total production quantity of both firms increases (so the market price of the product decreases) with the ESCO producing less while its client producing more, which also leads to a higher consumer surplus. Meanwhile, both manufactures are better off under EPC and would obtain strictly higher profits when the service cost rate is high. Nevertheless, EPC may not result in a better environmental performance in that the total energy consumption of both firms may be higher under EPC, which happens when the market size is small and the ESCO has not much energy‐efficiency advantage over its client. We also study four extensions: When the energy saving service and production decisions are made separately, we find the more energy‐efficient firm is worse off when implementing EPC; when the energy‐saving sharing ratio is determined by the ESCO instead of the client, the ESCO extracts all the surplus derived from the EPC project while the total energy consumption of both firms is always reduced; when the energy‐saving sharing ratio is determined via Nash bargaining, the main insights from the base model remain valid; finally, when the client sets the target of overall cost reduction, it extracts all the surplus derived from the EPC project.     

Interactions among the human and organizational factors within the public sector regarding epidemic prevention and control

The management of human and organizational factors (HOFs) within the public sector directly concerns the efficacy of epidemic prevention and control (EPC). Insufficient examination of such HOFs has led to defective countermeasures. This study attempts to comprehensively identify the HOFs within the public sector critical to EPC and investigate their interactions with the weighted network theory. A total of 55 HOFs were identified, and their interactions were assessed and visualized in the Chinese context. Then, the established weighted network was analyzed to investigate the interactions and diagnose critical factors and sectors. The analysis shows that there are strong interactions among HOFs, and that the human and organizational risks emerging from administrative departments of public health, centers for disease control and prevention, and medical institutions act as the key risk sources in the complex interconnected EPC system, exacerbating risk and causing a significant domino effect. It is recommended that the authorities devote more resources to the core sectors and endeavor to reinforce those critical HOFs by implementing closer risk communication, collaboration, and response. This study may deepen and broaden the authorities’ awareness and understanding of interactions among HOFs regarding epidemic mitigation, and strengthen their capacity to perceive, evaluate, and manage these factors in a proactive and effective way, thereby facilitating the success of EPC.     

基于多属性逆向拍卖的节能服务公司选择研究

合同能源管理是一种新型的节能机制,节能服务需求方与节能服务公司通过合作共享收益。合同能源管理实施的一个难点是节能服务公司(ESCO)的选择,然而,相关研究尚不充分。本文以政府为节能服务需求方,基于多属性逆向拍卖模型研究了ESCO选择问题。ESCO的投标集由三个属性决定,即节能量、项目完成期以及节能收益分享比例。本文通过非合作博弈研究政府和多ESCO间的逆向拍卖行为,将利润分享比例作为能源节省量与项目提前期的函数,我们推导出各ESCO的最优投标策略;在此基础上,每一个ESCO可以通过自身的技术与能力来决定投标策略;于是,在不忽视利润分享的前提下,政府可以依据能源节省量与项目提起期来挑选最优的ESCO。这种ESCO选择机制回避了节能收益分配的谈判,限制了ESCO间的恶意竞争,从而提高了整个合同能源管理过程的运作效率。仿真研究显示,ESCO数量的增加会降低各方的收益,于是,政府有必要限制参与逆向拍卖的ESCO数量。     

Application of Geostatistics to Risk Assessment

Geostatistics offers two fundamental contributions to environmental contaminant exposure assessment: (1) a group of methods to quantitatively describe the spatial distribution of a pollutant and (2) the ability to improve estimates of the exposure point concentration by exploiting the geospatial information present in the data. The second contribution is particularly valuable when exposure estimates must be derived from small data sets, which is often the case in environmental risk assessment. This article addresses two topics related to the use of geostatistics in human and ecological risk assessments performed at hazardous waste sites: (1) the importance of assessing model assumptions when using geostatistics and (2) the use of geostatistics to improve estimates of the exposure point concentration (EPC) in the limited data scenario. The latter topic is approached here by comparing design-based estimators that are familiar to environmental risk assessors (e.g., Land's method) with geostatistics, a model-based estimator. In this report, we summarize the basics of spatial weighting of sample data, kriging, and geostatistical simulation. We then explore the two topics identified above in a case study, using soil lead concentration data from a Superfund site (a skeet and trap range). We also describe several areas where research is needed to advance the use of geostatistics in environmental risk assessment.     

基于多目标加权灰靶决策模型的节能服务公司选择研究

用能方对节能服务公司（Energy Service Company，ESCO）的选择关系到合同能源管理（Energy Performance Contracting，EPC）能否顺利实施。从用能方的角度，采用灰色系统理论中的多目标加权灰靶决策模型，对存在多决策目标的ESCO选择问题进行研究。通过层次分析法确定ESCO的11个决策目标的决策权数，根据综合效果测度值的比较，最终实现最优对策的选择。本文为用能方的ESCO选择问题提供了一种新的思路。     

双边道德风险下中小节能服务企业与银行关系契约模型

基于合同能源管理机制运作的节能服务产业快速发展,产生了可观的节能效益,体现出巨大的市场需求和发展潜力。然而,我国的节能服务企业大多为自负盈亏的中小服务企业而难以获得银行贷款。基于此,本文从中小节能服务企业与银行的长期重复借贷合作关系出发,针对节能服务企业贷款过程中所存在的双边道德风险问题,引入银行贷款额度不足带来的潜在收益分享系数以设计激励机制,建立了中小节能服务企业与银行双边道德风险下长期关系契约规划模型,分析了银企关系契约下贴现因子的影响。本文的研究结果论证了银行与中小节能服务企业建立长期关系契约的可行性,银行应通过关系契约与中小节能服务企业建立长期合作关系,基于服务企业承诺的激励机制将有效提高节能服务企业服务效益,进而增加自身的投资效益,实现银企的双赢。     

基于人工免疫的企业流程案例库三级索引框架

根据流程案例的特点,从行业、业务和流程信息化程度3个方面构建三级索引框架,从而能够有效地对流程案例进行分类存储、快速检索与匹配。三级索引机制的核心是基于企业流程信息化程度的第三级索引构建,利用基于人工免疫的aiNet聚类方法的噪声忍耐、自组织、记忆性以及能够有效避免局部最优等方面的特点,对流程案例进行第三级分类,将人工免疫的抗体作为聚类中心,形成流程案例的第三级索引。最后利用105个样本对该三级索引机制的构建过程进行了实证。     

测量系统的质量监控技术

在制造业中,测量系统是保证和提高产品质量的必需技术手段。本文提出了将统计过程控制(SPC)技术应用于监控测量过程的思想,首先指出了测量过程与一般生产过程之间的差异,并建立了测量过程的一般模型;在此基础上,引入了监控测量过程的同分布原则和实现技术,并给出了实证分析。