Effects of migration on the educational levels of the black resident population at the origin and destination, 1955–1960 and 1965–1970

Using the 1960 and 1970 census data, this paper analyzes the net effects of the interregional migration of black males on the educational levels of the resident black male population at the regions of origin and destination. Significant variations are observed in the educational selectivity of out-migrants from each region, by region of destination. Comparing the educational levels of the return migrants to the South with those of the resident population in the nonsouthern regions provides no evidence that the return migrants are "failed" migrants. The net effect of interregional migration on the educational levels of the black male resident population at the regions of origin and destination is insignificant in most age groups, for both the 1955--1960 and 1965--1970 periods. In particular, in-migration from the South to nonsouthern regions has little effect on the educational levels of the resident population in most age groups. In fact, for nonsouthern regions, out-migration is more detrimental to the educational level of the resident black male population than is in-migration from the South. Furthermore, the net effect of interregional migration has declined from the 1955--1960 period to the 1965--1970 period.     

Associations between overseas,intra-urban and internal migration dynamics in Sydney, 1976–91

Between 1976 and 1991 metropolitan Sydney experienced unprecedented internal migration losses to other states and coastal regions of New South Wales. Levels of overseas immigration were also high and housing costs increased markedly, especially between 1986 and 1991. This paper investigates spatial statistical associations between overseas in-migration rates and internal migration loss within Sydney and between housing costs in Sydney and internal migration outflows. The hypothesis was that housing cost changes and overseas migration contributed additively to migration losses from the metropolis. A complementary analysis of the relationship between migration and housing cost changes is also undertaken. There was a strong positive association between overseas in-migration and intra-urban out-migration and a strong negative spatial association between overseas in-migration and internal out-migration. In consequence, housing cost associations with internal migration loss were found, although not all were in the expected direction. There were stronger associations between housing factors and intra-urban migration. The integration of metropolitan Sydney and Australia into the ‘Pacific rim’ economy is examined with reference to wider explanations of house cost changes and migration flows.     

Vector representation of migration streams among selected state economic areas during 1955 to 1960

This paper uses in-migration, out-migration, and net migration vectors to measure and portray the migration streams occurring between April 1, 1955, and April 1, 1960, for all persons five years old and over on April 1, 1960, among 38 contiguous state economic areas (SEA's) in Oklahoma, Colorado, Kansas, Missouri, Arkansas, Texas, and New Mexico. Both rectangular and polar coordinates were employed in computing three different types of vector representations. First, migration vectors for each SEA, expressed in total people-miles of in-movement, out-movement, and net movement represent the resultant direction of movement and the total people-miles of movement. Second, in- and out-migration vectors of the total people-miles of movement, with the widths of the vectors drawn proportional to the number of migrants, show the total size of each migration stream for each SEA, the resultant direction of movement, and the distance moved in total people-miles of movement. p ]Third, in- and out-migration vectors of the average distances moved to and from each SEA, with the widths of the vectors drawn proportional to the number of migrants, show the magnitude of movement, the average distance moved per migrant, and the resultant direction of movement. This study shows that migration vectors based upon polar coordinates are more accurate than the migration vectors based upon rectangular coordinates. Also, the in- and out-migration vectors are superior to net migration vectors in representing migratory streams among geographic areas.     

Temporal and spatial variation in age-specific net migration in the United States

As fertility differences in the United States diminish, population redistribution trends are increasingly dependent on migration. This research used newly developed county-level age-specific net migration estimates for the 1990s, supplemented with longitudinal age-specific migration data spanning the prior 40 years, to ascertain whether there are clear longitudinal trends in age-specific net migration and to determine if there is spatial clustering in the migration patterns. The analysis confirmed the continuation into the 1990s of distinct net migration "signature patterns" for most types of counties, although there was temporal variation in the overall volume of migration across the five decades. A spatial autocorrelation analysis revealed large, geographically contiguous regions of net in-migration (in particular, Florida and the Southwest) and geographically contiguous regions of net out-migration (the Great Plains, in particular) that persisted over time. Yet the patterns of spatial concentration and fragmentation over time in these migration data demonstrate the relevance of this "neighborhood" approach to understanding spatiotemporal change in migration.     

Effects of changes in rainfall and temperature on age- and sex-specific patterns of rural-urban migration in sub-Saharan Africa

We evaluate how changes in weather patterns affected rural-urban migration across 41 sub-Saharan African countries, by age and sex, over the 1980–2015 period. We combine recent age- and sex-specific estimates of net rural-urban migration with historical data on rainfall and temperature from the Climate Research Unit (CRU). We also compare standard unweighted estimates of rainfall and temperature to estimates weighted by the proportion of the country’s total rural population in the CRU grid. Results show that rural out-migration of young adults is the most sensitive to shifts in weather patterns, with lower rainfall, lower variability in rainfall, and higher temperatures increasing subsequent rural out-migration—though the last of these is not observed in weighted models. The strength of these effects has grown stronger over time for 20–24 year olds, though weaker above age 30. In contrast, increasing temperature variability is associated with a higher rural in-migration of children (0–9) and older adults (55–64). Gender differences in these effects are minimal and concentrated in areas which experienced heavy reductions in rainfall.

     

Changing patterns of migration between metropolitan and nonmetropolitan areas in the United States: Recent evidence

Data from the 1975 Current Population Survey confirm that, during 1970–1975, there was a reversal of the traditional net migration stream between metropolitan and nonmetropolitan areas in the United States. During this period, there was net in-migration of 1,600,000 persons to nonmetropolitan areas, in contrast to net out-migration of 350,000 persons from these areas in 1965–1970. Reversal was caused by a 12 percent decrease in the number of nonmetropolitan out-migrants and a 23 percent increase in the number of SMSA residents moving to nonmetropolitan territory over 1965–1970 levels. While some changes in the size of migration streams were due to changes in age structures and population bases in metropolitan and nonmetropolitan areas, they were caused primarily by real shifts in outmigration propensities at practically all ages in both areas.     

Social factors as predictors of internal migration patterns in Israel

The influence of 1975 crime and poverty-dependence factor scores on 1976–1980 internal migration rates in Israel was studied. Lag correlations between the two factor scores and in and out migration revealed that poverty-dependence was strongly and negatively related to in-migration and moderately and negatively related to out-migration. No relationship was found between crime and in-migration over the five year period, but a strong positive relationship was indicated between crime and outmigration. It was thus shown that social indicators such as crime and poverty-dependence revealed lasting effects on migration rates, and may be an aid to social planners.     

Determinants of male labor mobility

This study is concerned with male labor mobility in 84 urban labor markets. Mobility studies have frequently used employment variables to approximate differential labor demands and to explain mobility. It would seem that supply factors, as well as demand factors, could exert an influence on mobility. To assess the influence of supply factors, new labor force entrants and withdrawals, along with labor demand variables, were regressed against gross in- and out-migration rates. The results confirmed the hypothesis that labor mobility is substantially influenced by the economic and demographic characteristics of the urban labor market. Higher rates of in-migration were found in regions with higher rates of new employment opportunities. Where the demographic characteristics of the labor market result in larger labor supplies, out-migration rates were found to be higher and in-migration rates lower. Labor seems quite sensitive to differential labor market conditions and would appear to flow toward markets where an economic advantage lies. One interesting interpretation of the negative association between in-migration and wages is that employment opportunities may expand more rapidly in low-wage sectors, perhaps in the nonmanufacturing sector, thereby providing job opportunities which attract labor into the region.     

Rethinking measures of migration: On the decomposition of net migration

The purpose of this paper is to “resurrect” the measure of net migration and defend its continued use under specific research circumstances, despite the current dissatisfaction with the measure as expressed by some scholars. We employ data from the 1980 Census of Population to compare five measures of migration, including net migration rates, in- and out-migration rates, migration efficiency ratios and migration turnover rates. We demonstrate the additivity of in- and out-migration rates with net migration rates and migration turnover rates. Also, we show how the migration efficiency ratio and turnover rates are conceptually and mathematically related. Finally, a simple multivariate model is estimated to show how regression coefficients from in-and out-migration rate models are related to net migration and migration turnover rates.     

Welfare reform and interstate migration of poor families

The thesis of this study is that as a result of increased inequalities in welfare rules, the 1996 welfare reform act not only enhanced incentives for poor families to move but also (and perhaps more important) created disincentives for them to stay in "race to the bottom" states. In testing this thesis, we evaluated the mediating and moderating roles of state economic development and family structure. We merged data from three main sources: the 1996-1999 panel of the Survey of Income and Program Participation, the Urban Institute's Welfare Rules Database, and state economic data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Modeling both destination (pull) and departure (push) effects of welfare policy measures and selected covariates in a nested discrete-time event-history migration analysis, we found robust support for the thesis that stringency in state welfare-eligibility and behavior-related rules stimulated interstate out-migration of poor families in the United States. However poor families were not drawn to states with relatively more-lenient welfare rules, although stringency in state welfare dollar benefits inhibited in-migration and state unemployment patterns may have conditioned the migration effects of welfare-reform rules on the choice of destination. Single mothers were not more directly affected by welfare-eligibility and behavior-related rules than were poor married couples.     

Length of residence,social ties,and economic opportunities

This study examines length of residence for movers—that subsection of the population which accounts for the high mobility rates in the United States. The propensity for repeated migration is studied in relation to economic opportunities and previous familial and personal contacts. The results indicate no influence of economic opportunities on duration of residence. This finding is consistent with recent research that indicates economic conditions are not a general stimulus for out-migration, although they are for in-migration. On the other hand, length of residence is found to be longer where previous familial and personal contacts existed. Overall, the results provide additional evidence of the importance of social, as opposed to strictly economic, variables in the migration process.     

Long-term multivariate prediction of migration patterns

In- and out-migration rates of 56 Israeli cities with a population of over 5000 were predicted for a five-year period (1977–1981), on the basis of four 1976 social indicators: crime rate, percent unemployment, population size and distance from a major metropolitan center. Rather than employ independent correlation coefficients, the four indicators were entered as predictors into regression equations with in- and out-migration rates serving as the dependent variable. The analytic methods are compared and the clear advantages of the regression method emerge. None of the indicators reliably predicted in-migration. Crime consistently predicted out-migration. Distance and unemployment each entered into three of the prediction models.     

Trajectories of Public Assistance Receipt among Female High School Dropouts

This paper maps patterns of public assistance receipt for 1979 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth female high school dropouts between 1984, when they were 19–27 years old, and 1998 when they reached their early 30s and 40s. Using latent class cluster models, I test whether obtaining a GED, occupational training, work experience, marriage, and delayed parenthood reduce the probability of receiving public assistance. I find that dropouts who earn their GEDs within 4 years after leaving high school have a high probability of never receiving public assistance across the 14-year period. Those who earn GEDs 5 or more years after dropping out have a sharply reduced risk of welfare use in mid-adulthood, suggesting that a late GED may act as a turning point for those formerly reliant on public assistance. Although work experience is the strongest predictor of avoiding public assistance, marriage and education provide a more effective route off of welfare for some recipients. On-the-job training and earning a GED later in life increase the likelihood that chronic recipients will permanently exit welfare. Highlighting the diversity within the welfare population, I conclude that no single approach to ending reliance on public assistance will lead to economic self-sufficiency among the undereducated.     

Recovery migration to the City of New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina: a migration systems approach

Hurricane Katrina’s effect on the population of the City of New Orleans provides a model of how severe weather events, which are likely to increase in frequency and strength as the climate warms, might affect other large coastal cities. Our research focuses on changes in the migration system—defined as the system of ties between Orleans Parish and all other U.S. counties—between the pre-disaster (1999–2004) and recovery (2007–2009) periods. Using Internal Revenue Service county-to-county migration flow data, we find that in the recovery period, Orleans Parish increased the number of migration ties with and received larger migration flows from nearby counties in the Gulf of Mexico coastal region, thereby spatially concentrating and intensifying the in-migration dimension of this predominantly urban system, while the out-migration dimension contracted and had smaller flows. We interpret these changes as the migration system relying on its strongest ties to nearby and less-damaged counties to generate recovery in-migration.     

Environmental hazard and migration intentions in a coastal area in Ghana: a case of sea flooding

Recently, there has been significant debate about whether ‘environmental migration’ can constitute a form of adaptation to environmental change, as opposed to forced or flight migration. The Foresight Report on Migration and Environmental Change (2011) suggested environmental factors are one driver of migration, as well as political, social, economic and demographic drivers, and that—under the right conditions—migration can be a form of adaptation to changing climatic conditions. However, this is dependent on migrants having adequate social and financial capital to undertake beneficial types of migration; it further argues that environmental change may result in ‘trapped populations’ whereby people who lack the necessary resources to re-establish livelihoods elsewhere may be left exposed to increasingly severe environmental shocks and stresses in situ. Research on the climate-migration nexus in West Africa has largely focused on out-migration from the semi-arid Sahel with more limited evidence about how sea flooding interacts with migration flows. This paper attempts to help fill this knowledge gap. Using data from a representative survey of households across three coastal communities in Ghana’s Volta River Delta, this paper concludes that exposure to sea flooding may not be a primary cause of out-migration as other community, economic and political factors influence migration intentions and decisions. Thus, it is important for planned adaptation interventions to be strengthened in situ to enable households, particularly farming households, sustain their livelihoods.     

Impacts of population change on vulnerability and the capacity to adapt to climate change and variability: a typology based on lessons from “a hard country”

This article describes and analyzes the impacts of population and demographic change on the vulnerability of communities to climate change and variability. It begins with a review of existing literature on the effects of population change on anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, the exposure of settlements to climate risks, and on the capacity to adapt to climate change. The article explores the relationship between population change and adaptive capacity through detailed examination of empirical findings from a study of small communities in eastern Ontario, Canada currently experiencing a combination of changes in local climatic conditions and rapid demographic change caused by in-migration of urban retirees and out-migration of young, educated people. The combination of changing demographic and climatic patterns has placed increased stress on local social networks that have long been critical to climate adaptation in that region. The case study and literature review are used to create a general typology of the relationship between population change and vulnerability that may be used as a framework for future research in this field.     

International Migration and Educational Assortative Mating in Mexico and the United States

This paper examines the relationship between migration and marriage by describing how the distributions of marital statuses and assortative mating patterns vary by individual and community experiences of migration. In Mexico, migrants and those living in areas with high levels of out-migration are more likely to be in heterogamous unions. This is because migration increases the relative attractiveness of single return migrants while disproportionately reducing the number of marriageable men in local marriage markets. In the United States, the odds of homogamy are lower for migrants compared with nonmigrants; however, they do not vary depending on the volume of migration in communities. Migrants are more likely than nonmigrants to “marry up” educationally because the relatively small size of this group compels them to expand their pool of potential spouses to include nonmigrants, who tend to be better educated than they are. Among migrants, the odds of marrying outside of one’s education group increase the most among the least educated. In Mexican communities with high rates of out-migration, the odds of marrying outside of one’s education group are highest among those with the highest level of education. These findings suggest that migration disrupts preferences and opportunities for homogamy by changing social arrangements and normative climates.