Does income inequality contribute to credit cycles?

Recent literature presented arguments linking income inequality to the financial crash of 2007–2008. One proposed channel is expected to work through bank credit. I analyze the relationship between income inequality and bank credit in a panel cointegration framework and find that they have a long-run dependency relationship. Results show that income inequality contributed to the increase of bank credit in developed economies after the Second World War.     

Main Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment in the Southeast European Countries

The growth of foreign direct investments (FDI) in the world has been significant in recent years. Between 1990 and 2000 worldwide FDI inflows increased more than five times, and since 2000 they have declined. During the period of FDI expansion, growth was especially strong from 1997 onward. However, most of the FDI transactions were between the developed countries. The distribution of FDI is unequal and less-developing countries face difficulties in attracting FDI. Despite the fact that FDI is increasingly important to developing countries, over the past few years the share of the developing countries in worldwide FDI inflows has been declining. The paper analyses geographical and sector distribution of FDI in the Southeast European countries (SEEC) and compares its amount with that in Central East European countries. According to economic theory, FDI towards developing countries flows for labor-intensive and low-technology production, while towards developed states, it flows for high-technology production. Identification of determining factors of FDI is a complex problem which depends on several characteristics specific for each country, sectors, and companies. All those factors could be grouped in three broad categories: economic policy of host country, economic performance, and attractiveness of national economy. On the desegregated level, FDI depends on size and growth potential of a national economy, natural resources endowments and quality of workforce, openness to international trade and access to international markets, and quality of physical, financial, and technological infrastructure. An important question is how SEEC can attract more foreign investment. To find the answer, this paper uses data on FDI inflows to SEEC to determine the main host country determinants of FDI and provides regression-based estimation of determinants of FDI. Using a sample of SEEC and panel data techniques, the determinants of FDI in this part of Europe are investigated. The paper researches the relationship between FDI, GDP, GDP per capita, number of inhabitants, trade openness, inflation, external debt, and information and communication technology sectors. For SEEC, FDI inflows are largely dependent on the completion of the privatization process and in this paper we include the level of private sector and privatization as explanatory variables. Our findings suggest that certain variables such as privatization and trade regime, as well as the density of infrastructure, appear to be robust under different specifications. A positive significance of the agglomeration factor is also observed, confirming the relevant theoretical propositions. However, certain differential variables, such as the privatization, could not be fully captured due to the statistical homogeneity of the sample.     

KILLING THE GOOSE THAT LAYS THE GOLDEN EGG: INSTITUTIONAL CHANGE AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN HONG KONG

This article examines how the rule of law and democratic accountability have affected Hong Kong's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate in the past 20 yr. We find that democratic accountability has deteriorated substantially since the changeover of sovereignty in 1997, while the rule of law has remained strong and stable. Empirical results from autoregressive distributed lag bounds tests show a positive long-run relationship between growth and democratic accountability, and Granger causality tests reveal that democratic accountability causes the growth rate of GDP in the short run. These conclusions are robust to control for the effects of investment and the Asian financial crisis in 1997. ( JEL O18, O49, P17)     

INEQUALITY AND GROWTH IN THE UNITED STATES: EVIDENCE FROM A NEW STATE-LEVEL PANEL OF INCOME INEQUALITY MEASURES

This paper introduces a new comprehensive panel of annual state-level income inequality measures spanning the postwar period 1945–2004. For many states, the share of income held by the top decile experienced a prolonged period of stability after World War II, followed by a substantial increase in inequality during the 1980s and 1990s. This paper also presents an examination of the long-run relationship between income inequality and economic growth. Our findings indicate that the long-run relationship between inequality and growth is positive in nature and driven principally by the concentration of income in the upper end of the income distribution. ( JEL D31, O40)     

FDI AND INCOME INEQUALITY: EVIDENCE FROM A PANEL OF U.S. STATES

This study employs state‐level panel data to explore the relationship between inward foreign direct investment (FDI) and income inequality in the United States. Using panel cointegration techniques that allow for cross‐sectional heterogeneity and cross‐sectional dependence, we find that, in the long run, FDI exerts a significant and robust negative effect on income inequality in the United States. This result for the United States as a whole does not imply that FDI narrows income gaps in each individual state. There is considerable heterogeneity in the long‐run effects of FDI on income inequality across states, with some states (21 out of 48 cases) exhibiting a positive relationship between FDI in income inequality.(JEL F21, D31, C23)     

Measuring the Quality of Bank Regulation and Supervision with an Application to Transition Economies

This study develops a methodology to evaluate the quality of the legal aspect of bank regulation and supervision (RS). We use both the Basle guidelines and the letter of banking laws to form an extensive set of criteria to evaluate banking laws. As an application, we provide measures of RS for 23 transition economies. Our measurements indicate that legal banking reforms in Poland, Hungary, and Estonia have been more ambitious than the rest of the countries in transition. Controlling for various other relevant factors, empirical evidence reveals a significant positive relationship between RS and real GDP growth in transition economies.     

Remittances,Institutions and Growth in Africa

Remittances have become an important source of external finance in many developing countries. This article examines the relationship between remittances, institutions and economic growth in a panel of 26 African countries over the period 1980–2014. We apply the fixed effects (FE) and the two‐step system generalized method‐of‐moments (GMM) estimation methods. Our results show that there is a positive relationship between remittances and growth. We also find that institutions are an important determinant of economic growth. The interaction terms have a positive and statistically significant effect on economic growth. Thus, the growth effect of remittances is enhanced in the presence of strong institutions. Strong institutions are therefore germane in attracting greater remittance inflows to African countries. A clearer understanding of the channels through which remittance flows will enhance growth in African economies may assist policymakers to craft appropriate policies. In particular, a policy environment that promotes strong institutions would serve to attract more remittances.     

The relationship between foreign direct investment and economic growth: evidence from transition countries

This paper examines the importance of foreign direct investment on economic growth. Using a panel data set for 27 transition economies over the period 1991–2004 as well as the methodology of panel cointegration and causality tests, the empirical findings show that foreign direct investment does exhibit a significant relationship with economic growth, at least for those transition countries that are characterized by high levels of income and have implemented successful privatization programs.     

Estimates of Money Demand Functions for Estonia

This paper examines the money demand function of Estonia in the period 1995–2006. Since Estonia has a currency board system, euro area interest rates are taken into account. We apply different cointegration procedures like the Engle–Granger, the dynamic OLS, and the Johansen procedure to estimate the long-run relationship among money, output, and interest rates. The results show that it is difficult to find a cointegrating relationship for the broad money aggregate M2. For the preferred relationship including euro area money market rate and euro area bond rate a dynamic equation is estimated. This dynamic equation is stable for the whole period. The change of the anchor curreny in the currency board and the accession to the European Union do not alter the relationship.      

Relating labor productivity to wages in service sectors: a long-run approach

This article introduces a systematic approach to the study of unbalanced productivity growth that can be readily applied across any sectors with unbalanced productivity growth. This approach is based on a cointegrating relationship between sectoral productivity and real sectoral compensation. Strong support for this relationship is found in U.S. service sectors from 1947 to 1993. The results show that Baumol's theory of'cost disease'due to unbalanced productivity growth has been a widespread phenomenon and that the relationship between labor productivity and real compensation is well represented with general forms of the production function.     

FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: THE GROWTH ACCOUNTING PERSPECTIVE

A positive relationship between FDI and economic growth under two economic conditions has been estimated: a sufficient level of human capital and well-developed financial markets, respectively. However, these two conditions can be fundamentally different catalysts for FDI to promote economic growth in the perspective of growth accounting. Using data from 69 countries over 1970–1989, we find that FDI promotes productivity growth only when the host country reaches a threshold level of human capital; and FDI promotes capital growth only when a certain level of financial development is achieved. ( JEL F21)     

Banking Sector Development and Economic Growth in Central and Southeastern Europe Countries

The aim of this paper is to empirically examine the relationship between banking sector development and economic growth in 16 transition countries in Central and Southeastern Europe in the period from 1995 to 2010. We apply fixed-effects panel model and control for other relevant determinants of economic growth and endogeneity. We measure the level of banking sector development using the amount of bank credit allocated to the private sector as a share of GDP. The second variable for the level of financial sector development is the margin between lending and deposit interest rates. According to our results the amount of bank credit allocated to the private sector, apparently does not speed up economic growth in transition countries. The second variable, interest rate margin is negatively but not significantly associated with economic growth.     

Housing price, elderly dependency and fertility behaviour

Sustaining declines in fertility have increasingly become an alarming issue in most of the world economies. Many governments have been making enormous efforts to alleviate such intertwined problems as falling fertility and soaring elderly dependency. What really makes fertility rates fall? Does housing price have a role (as many argue)? Most researchers addressed this issue from a demographic perspective, but have yet to fully unravel the mystery of human fertility behaviour. The paper aims to investigate the novel linkages between birth rate, housing price and elderly dependency, with the case of Hong Kong. It employs two key methods: (i) the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) to co-integration procedure and (ii) Granger causality, to disentangle the complicated relationships, long-run and short-run. The empirical results show that a 1 percent increase in housing prices and elderly leads to 0.52% and 1.65% decreases in birth rate respectively. Besides, both housing price and elderly dependency Granger cause birth rate in the long-run. Our findings not only shed light on fertility behaviour, but also provide implications for policy change. That is particularly relevant to those economies whose low fertility situations need to be ameliorated.     

Finance and the Sources of Growth at Various Stages of Economic Development

This article studies the effects of financial development on the sources of growth in different groups of countries. Recent theoretical work shows that financial development may affect productivity and capital accumulation in different ways in industrial versus developing countries. This hypothesis is tested with panel data from 74 countries using GMM dynamic panel techniques. Results are consistent with the hypothesis: finance has a strong positive influence on productivity growth primarily in more developed economies. In less developed economies, the effect of finance on output growth occurs primarily through capital accumulation.     

Economic Transition and Regional Growth: The Case of Albania and Comparator SEECs

The focus of this paper is to investigate the growth performance of Albania and other South Eastern European Countries in the period 1990–2006 by examining traditional growth sources as emerge from standard theoretical models. It focuses on macroeconomic performances and GDP per capita growth rates to examine why countries in the SEE region are lagging behind with respect to other transition economies. The analysis is conducted through stylised growth regressions to estimate convergence rates and coefficients of key factors of growth. Results indicate that real GDP growth in all the eight countries is mainly driven by physical capital accumulation, whereas the contribution of human capital is insignificant or even negative.     

Healthy, educated and wealthy: A primer on the impact of public and private welfare expenditures on economic growth

In this paper, we provide first evidence of the impact of public and private expenditures in health and education on economic growth, via their influence on people's health, skills and knowledge. We consider a growth accounting framework in order to test whether countries that devote a larger amount of resources to the consumption of health and educational services experience higher growth rates. We also test whether the effects on economic growth of public expenditure in health and education differ from those of private expenditure. Our empirical analysis is based on a panel of 19 OECD countries observed between 1971 and 1998. The results are consistent with the hypothesis that health and education expenditure affects positively growth. The estimated impact is stronger for health than for education. More importantly, we find some evidence that public expenditure influences GDP growth more than private expenditure.     

IS THE BUDGET DEFICIT “TOO LARGE”?: SOME FURTHER EVIDENCE

The size of the federal budget deficit has alarmed politicians and the general public both. Following recent work, we examine the long-run solvency of the U.S. government by testing for cointegration of federal expenditures and revenues. We include a break term in the cointegrating recession for 1981 to capture a shift in the fiscal process in the first Reagan administration. Tests show the break to be significant; and with the break, in contrast to earlier work, expenditures and revenues are cointegrated with a coefficient of one. Thus, we find the deficit to be stationary and so potentially sustainable.     

An alternative test of Kuznets’ hypothesis

This paper uses a novel approach for testing Kuznets’ hypothesis. Following Kuznets’ original insights, we test for an inverted U relationship between employment outside agriculture and income inequality, instead of the traditional focus on GDP per capita and income inequality. Our results, obtained using panel and country by country regressions, do not support Kuznets’ hypothesis.     

Regional Infrastructure and Convergence: Growth Implications in a Spatial Framework

In this paper we contribute to the debate on convergence, by presenting an overview of the catch up process of the European regions between 1995 and 2006, focusing on both absolute and conditional β convergence. Our focus is on the role of infrastructure stocks in shaping the growth and convergence process between EU regions and to what extent the spatial dimension of the data affects results. We also explicitly examine the link between infrastructure evolution and regional economic growth with a spatial panel data approach. Our results confirm an ongoing convergence process at the EU regional level, and assess the important role of transport and telecommunication infrastructure, with traditional and spatial estimation techniques. We also confirm, in a panel setting, the strong positive correlation between transport and TLC indicators and GDP growth at the regional level.     

Panel Tests of Okun's Law for Ten Industrial Countries

Okun's Law is one of the most enduring stylistic facts in macroeconomics. This article uses new developments in trend/cycle decomposition to test Okun's Law for a panel of ten industrial countries, finding that Okun's original estimate for the U.S. of three points of real GDP growth for each one percent reduction in the unemployment rate now averages just under two points of real GDP growth for the sample countries. Pooled estimates for Europe are smaller than estimates for the rest of the sample. Also, this article finds that omission of capital and labor inputs may have biased previous estimates.