Inference of Signs of Interaction Effects in Simultaneous Games With Incomplete Information

This paper studies the inference of interaction effects in discrete simultaneous games with incomplete information. We propose a test for the signs of state‐dependent interaction effects that does not require parametric specifications of players' payoffs, the distributions of their private signals, or the equilibrium selection mechanism. The test relies on the commonly invoked assumption that players' private signals are independent conditional on observed states. The procedure is valid in (but does not rely on) the presence of multiple equilibria in the data‐generating process (DGP). As a by‐product, we propose a formal test for multiple equilibria in the DGP. We also implement the test using data on radio programming of commercial breaks in the United States, and infer stations' incentives to synchronize their commercial breaks. Our results support the earlier finding by Sweeting (2009) that stations have stronger incentives to coordinate and air commercials at the same time during rush hours and in smaller markets.     

When Gray is Good: Gray Markets and Market‐Creating Investments

Gray markets arise when an intermediary buys a product in a lower‐priced, often emerging market and resells it to compete with the product's original manufacturer in a higher priced, more developed market. Evidence suggests that gray markets make the original manufacturer worse off globally by eroding profit margins in developed markets. Thus, it is interesting that many firms do not implement control systems to curb gray market activity. Our analysis suggests that one possible explanation lies at the intersection of two economic phenomena: firms investing to build emerging market demand, and investments conferring positive externalities (spillovers) on a rival's demand. We find that gray markets amplify the incentives to invest in emerging markets, because investments increase both emerging market consumption and the gray market's cost base. Moreover, when market‐creating investments confer positive spillovers, each firm builds its own market more efficiently. Thus, firms can be better off with gray markets when investments confer spillovers, provided the spillover effect is sufficiently large. These results provide a perspective on why firms might not implement control systems to prevent gray market distribution in sectors where investment spillovers are common (e.g., the technology sector) and, more broadly, why gray markets persist in the economy.     

Gray Markets and Supply Chain Incentives

“Gray markets” are unauthorized channels that distribute a branded product without the manufacturer's permission. Since gray markets are not officially sanctioned by the manufacturer, their existence is assumed to hurt the manufacturer. Yet manufacturers sometimes tolerate or even encourage gray market activities. We investigate the incentives of a manufacturer and its authorized retailer to engage in (or tolerate) gray markets. The firms need to consider the trade‐off between the positive effects of a gray market (price discrimination and cost savings) and the negative effects (cannibalization of sales and a loss in consumer valuation). Generally, gray markets can be categorized into two types: (i) a “local gray market,” where a retailer diverts products to unauthorized sellers operating in the same region as the retailer; and, (ii) “bootlegging,” where the retailer diverts products to unauthorized sellers in another market where the manufacturer sells through a direct channel. We characterize the equilibrium in each type of gray market and identify conditions under which the retailer will divert products to the gray market. Incentive problems are more complicated when the retailer bootlegs and, in this case, we show that conflicting incentives may lead to the emergence of a gray market where both the manufacturer's and retailer's profits decrease.     

Usage‐Based Pricing and Demand for Residential Broadband

We estimate demand for residential broadband using high‐frequency data from subscribers facing a three‐part tariff. The three‐part tariff makes data usage during the billing cycle a dynamic problem, thus generating variation in the (shadow) price of usage. We provide evidence that subscribers respond to this variation, and we use their dynamic decisions to estimate a flexible distribution of willingness to pay for different plan characteristics. Using the estimates, we simulate demand under alternative pricing and find that usage‐based pricing eliminates low‐value traffic. Furthermore, we show that the costs associated with investment in fiber‐optic networks are likely recoverable in some markets, but that there is a large gap between social and private incentives to invest.     

消费者多方购买行为与企业R&D策略博弈分析

通过构建完全信息博弈模型,研究具有网络外部性的产品市场中,在存在消费者多方购买行为时企业的研发策略和创新动机,并深入分析多方购买者比例大小和网络外部性强度对企业研发投资水平的影响。在市场中存在多方购买行为时均衡结果表明:(i)企业有动机进行研发投资;(ii)研发企业均衡价格、需求以及利润均高于不研发企业;(iii)在差异度系数和投资系数都充分大时研发企业最优研发投入随着多方购买者比例的增加而增大。最后通过具体算例分析知道:在考虑多方购买条件下,市场中存在研发时消费者总剩余和社会总福利高于市场中不存在研发时的情形。     

Tolerance for Failure and Incentives for Collaborative Innovation

Most organizations employ collaborative teams to manage innovation projects. Although the use of collaborative innovation teams is a good starting point, an organization's ability to innovate can be enhanced by managing risk‐taking behavior through monetary incentive schemes and through an organizational culture that tolerates failure. This article reports the results of two controlled experiments aimed at understanding how tolerance for failure and incentives impact the decisions of individuals engaged in a collaborative innovation initiative. A key element of our experiments is the notion of endogenous project risk, which we define as the explicit link between resources allocated to a project and the likelihood of project success. We observe that when penalties are low, the amount of risk an individual assumes is fairly insensitive to the rewards that are offered. In an analogous result, when individuals make decisions alone (rather than collaboratively), higher tolerance for failure does little to increase the amount of risk an individual is willing to take. Taken together, these results highlight the importance of implicit incentives that are created as a result of project and organizational characteristics.     

An Assessment of the Italian 2007 Complementary Social Security Reform: A Simulation Approach

In this paper we aim at assessing the outcomes of the 2007 Italian reform of the complementary social security scheme and at identifying the determinants behind them. The reform provided workers with relevant incentives to switch the investment of about 7 per cent of their gross yearly wages from a firm‐managed scheme (which took the form of a termination indemnity payment, the Trattamento di Fine Rapporto scheme) to an external pension fund. We provide a theoretical framework to model the workers' problem of choosing between these two different forms of complementary social security schemes and we then perform an agent‐based simulation taking into account all the details of the reform. Differently from previous contributions, we stress the impact that the investment decision has on the financial health of firms and, consequently, on workers' employment stability. Our simulations are able to replicate the Italian data in terms of adhesion rates to complementary social security and also to identify some of the key determinants of that outcome, such as fiscal incentives, individual preferences, the working of both the Italian labour and the financial markets and the productive structure of the Italian economy.     

Technical Note – Pricing Below Cost Under Exchange‐Rate Risk

Pricing below cost is often classified as “dumping” in international trade and as “predatory pricing” in local markets. It is legally prohibited from practice because of earlier findings that it leads to predatory behavior by either eliminating competition or stealing market share. This study shows that a stochastic exchange rate can create incentives for a profit‐minded monopoly firm to set price below marginal cost. Our result departs from earlier findings because the optimal pricing decision is based on a rational behavior that does not exhibit any malicious intent against the competition to be considered as violating anti‐trust laws. The finding is a robust result, because our analysis demonstrates that this behavior occurs under various settings such as when the firm (i) is risk‐averse, (ii) can postpone prices until after exchange rates are realized, (iii) is capable of manufacturing in multiple countries, and (iv) operates under demand uncertainty in addition to the random exchange rate.     

ON‐THE‐JOB SEARCH AND MORAL HAZARD

We analyze the interaction between intertemporal incentive contracts and search frictions associated with on‐the‐job search. In our model, agency problems call for wage contracts with deferred compensation. At the same time workers do on‐the‐job search. Deferred compensation improves workers' incentives to exert effort but distorts their on‐the‐job search decisions. We show that deferred compensation is less attractive when the value to the worker–firm pair of on‐the‐job search is high. Moreover, the interplay between search frictions and wage contracts creates feedback effects. If firms in equilibrium use contracts with deferred compensation, fewer firms with vacancies enter the on‐the‐job search market, and this in turn reduces the distortions created by deferred compensation. These feedback effects between the incentive contracts used and the activity level in the search markets can lead to multiple equilibria: a low‐turnover equilibrium where firms use deferred compensation, and a high‐turnover equilibrium where they do not. Furthermore, the model predicts that firms are more likely to use deferred compensation when search frictions are high and when the gains from on‐the‐job search are small.     

Supply Chain Coordination in the Presence of Gray Markets and Strategic Consumers

The practice of diverting genuine products to unauthorized gray markets continues to challenge companies in various industries and creates intense competition for authorized channels. Recent industry surveys report that the abuse of channel incentives is a primary reason for the growth of gray market activities. Therefore, it is crucial that companies take the presence of gray markets into consideration when they design contracts to distribute products through authorized retailers. This issue has received little attention in the extensive literature on contracting and supply chain coordination. In this study, we analyze the impacts of gray markets on two classic contracts, wholesale price and quantity discount, in a supply chain with one manufacturer and one retailer when the retailer has the opportunity to sell to a domestic gray market. Our analysis provides interesting and counterintuitive results. First, a classic quantity‐discount contract that normally coordinates the supply chain can perform so poorly in the presence of a gray market that the supply chain would be better off using a wholesale price contract instead. Second, the presence of gray market can also degrade the performance of the wholesale price contract; therefore, a more sophisticated contract is needed for coordinating the supply chain. We show that contracts that solely depend on retailer's order quantity cannot coordinate the supply chain, and provide the conditions for coordinating the supply chain with price‐dependent quantity discount contracts. We also provide comparative statics and show that when there is a gray market, coordinating the supply chain enhances total consumer welfare.     

TEAM INCENTIVES: EVIDENCE FROM A FIRM LEVEL EXPERIMENT

Many organizations rely on teamwork, and yet field evidence on the impacts of team‐based incentives remains scarce. Compared to individual incentives, team incentives can affect productivity by changing both workers’ effort and team composition. We present evidence from a field experiment designed to evaluate the impact of rank incentives and tournaments on the productivity and composition of teams. Strengthening incentives, either through rankings or tournaments, makes workers more likely to form teams with others of similar ability instead of with their friends. Introducing rank incentives however reduces average productivity by 14%, whereas introducing a tournament increases it by 24%. Both effects are heterogeneous: rank incentives only reduce the productivity of teams at the bottom of the productivity distribution, and monetary prize tournaments only increase the productivity of teams at the top. We interpret these results through a theoretical framework that makes precise when the provision of team‐based incentives crowds out the productivity‐enhancing effect of social connections under team production.     

中国股票市场的信息反应曲线和股票价格波动的非对称性

股票价格波动对于市场信息的反应过程具有非对称性。通过利用多种非对称性GARCH 模型,描述和检验了沪市股票日收益率序列的条件波动性,并通过对股票市场信息影响曲线的分析,发现沪市股票价格波动中存在显著的非对称性反应。这说明股市波动对于不同的政策干预和信息冲击具有不同程度的反应,“利好消息”对股市的刺激作用仍然需要其他市场干预的配合才能发挥出来。     

Innovation in Small,Project‐Based Construction Firms*

Relevant literature is synthesized to provide a holistic picture of our current knowledge of innovation in small, project‐based firms, highlighting significant gaps in the broad areas of ‘focus and outcome’, ‘organizational capabilities’, ‘context’ and ‘process’. Research findings from fieldwork focused on the construction industry are offered to address these gaps. In particular, a consensus model is given of the organizational factors dynamically at play. It is shown that typically the innovations of small, project‐based firms are closely tied to their operational activities and are pushed forward by owners who utilize very scarce resources to make progress in the interstices of normal business. This leads to an emphasis on taking up established technologies through ‘learning on the job’. Growth per se is not an important target. The motivation to act is generally to get past a survival mode of operating and to achieve stability by satisfying clients. These characteristics contrast with large organizations, especially in terms of the role of the owner, the close focus on niche markets and the lack of slack resources to innovate in parallel with normal business. It is hoped that these results will be of interest to other sectors where small, project‐based firms operate.     

Entry and Exit in OTC Derivatives Markets

We develop a parsimonious model to study the equilibrium and socially optimal decisions of banks to enter, trade in, and possibly exit, an OTC market. Although we endow all banks with the same trading technology, banks' optimal entry and trading decisions endogenously lead to a realistic market structure composed of dealers and customers with distinct trading patterns. We decompose banks' entry incentives into incentives to hedge risk and incentives to make intermediation profits. We show that dealer banks enter more than is socially optimal. In the face of large negative shocks, they may also exit more than is socially optimal when markets are not perfectly resilient.     

Architecture of Power Markets

Liberalization of infrastructure industries presents classic economic issues about how organization and procedure affect market performance. These issues are examined in wholesale power markets. The perspective from game theory complements standard economic theory to examine effects on efficiency and incentives.     

Supply Chain Consequences of Subsidies for Corporate Social Responsibility

The use of government incentives tied to market prices as means of boosting corporate social responsibility (CSR) has expanded notably in recent decades. Enhanced business tax deductions for charitable donations and credits for conservation easements are notable cases. While providing incentives for socially desirable behavior to achieve legislative goals has intuitive appeal, the broader economic consequences are not always fully understood. In this study, we examine such wider consequences for supply chains when subsidies for CSR are offered. One effect we identify is that since incentives are typically tied to market value, firms have not only an added incentive to achieve societal objectives (say by donating inventory) but also an incentive to raise output (retail) market prices. A second consequence is that since firms forgo potential revenues by engaging in socially desired behavior, they become increasingly sensitive to supplier pricing; in an uncoordinated supply chain this leads to input (wholesale) price concessions. Among other things, the results underscore that incentives put in place to meet broader societal objectives also have notable ramifications for suppliers, retailers, and consumers in primary markets.     

CONTRACT DURATION AND INVESTMENT INCENTIVES: EVIDENCE FROM LAND TENANCY AGREEMENTS

This paper analyzes the empirical determinants of contract length, a key and yet neglected dimension of contractual structure. I estimate contract length and contract type jointly using original data on tenancy agreements signed between 1870 and 1880 in the district of Siracusa, Italy. The findings indicate that the choice of contract length is driven by the need to provide incentives for nonobservable investment, taking into account transaction costs and imperfections in the credit markets that make incentive provision costly. The results also illustrate that because both length and the compensation scheme are used to provide incentives within the same contract, joint analysis is important for a correct interpretation of the evidence. (JEL: D82, O12, Q15)     

The Effects of Group Incentives in an Indian Firm: Evidence from Payroll Data

Abstract. This paper estimates the effects of group incentives on productivity, pay and employment in a large unionized firm in India. Using plant‐level monthly time‐series data from the payroll office for the period 1985–95, and controlling for both (plant) fixed effects and (contract) time effects, the paper provides econometric evidence on the effectiveness of both the level and intensity of incentive pay on the outcome measures. In addition, the relative performance of two types of group incentives defined on the basis of group size is also analysed. The results generally confirm predictions from theory that productivity returns to incentives are non‐linear and concave in shape and that the effectiveness of incentives is decreasing in group size. It is argued that the latter is most likely due to the lessening of the free‐rider problem and the increased effectiveness of peer monitoring associated with smaller groups. The results also point to a negative relationship between the level of incentives and employment over time.     

Equity‐Based Incentives and Supply Chain Buy‐Back Contracts*

We analyze the effect of equity‐based incentives in a supply chain with a downstream firm and an upstream supplier. By using the operational decision as a signal to influence external investors’ beliefs, the downstream firm's manager intends to maximize a convex combination of the interim share price and the terminal cash flows. We show that equity‐based incentives create a side effect. Specifically, with a universal buy‐back contract, the deadweight loss of signaling induced by equity‐based incentives could spread throughout the supply chain and cause chain‐wide damages. To mitigate such undesirable consequences, we propose a new mechanism to eliminate the inefficiency. We derive the optimal mechanism that maximizes the downstream firm's profits subject to the constraint that the supply chain efficiency is not undermined. In contrast to the full‐information benchmark, this mechanism gives positive surplus to the supplier. [Submitted: January 5, 2011. Revisions received: June 20, 2011; December 11, 2011. Accepted: December 22, 2011.]     

新股发行、盈余管理与高管薪酬激励

理论研究认为基于会计信息的高管薪酬制度安排是高管实施盈余管理的诱因之一。本文以新股发行过程为特定的研究背景,实证考察发行公司会计信息对高管薪酬激励产生的直接影响。通过对我国资本市场2001-2007年的新股发行公司进行检验,结果表明:第一,在控制其他因素影响下,公司高管通过盈余管理显著提高了货币薪酬水平。第二,实施高管股权激励的发行公司与没有实施高管股权激励的发行公司相比,前者现金流量的平均水平显著较低,而操控性应计的平均水平显著较高,表明实施高管股权激励的公司很可能普遍存在收益增加的盈余管理行为。进一步的回归分析表明高管的盈余管理行为显著增加了其股权激励价值。近几年上市公司高管薪酬的高速增长以及相关约束机制的缺乏很可能是导致这一现象的主要原因。