拉动内需、扩大消费与财政政策转型

拉动内需一直是我国政府实现经济平稳增长的重要手段。2008年底中央决定实施积极的财政政策,其目的就是通过财政政策的调控拉动内需,避免经济衰退。尽管如此,我国一直存在低消费、高投资的结构性矛盾。这种格局如果一直延续下去,将引发诸多经济运行风险。而且长期以来,我国财政政策在扩大消费方面始终未能发挥作用,这对财政政策提出不小的挑战,需要今后的财政政策在拉动内需,特别是扩大消费中有所作为。通过财政收支等手段建立"消费主导型"经济增长模式应是财政政策今后一段时期内的目标。     

高速铁路建设促进区域经济发展问题研究

国际金融危机下,我国政府出台了投资拉动内需促进经济增长的政策,其中高速铁路建设投资尤为突出.从经济理论的角度看,基础设施建设对促进经济增长和社会发展是一个不可忽略的积极因素.文章从高速铁路建设对扩大内需、增加就业和促进GDP增长的作用三个角度,分析了其对区域经济发展的促进作用,从而强调了发展高速铁路的必要性.     

教育消费与扩大内需研讨会综述

为了进一步认识教育消费与拉动内需，深入探讨与“扩招”相关的理论和实际问题，推动这一决策的有效实施，河南省社科联与有关单位联合在郑州召开了“教育消费与拉动内需”专题研讨会。现将会议主要观点综述如下：一、关于教育产业化与扩大内需教育作为一种产业，完全可以而且必须产业化。从经济发展的规律看，产业化～定要求市场化，教育产业化也必然要求教育活动市场化，教育机构企业化，学生受教育投资化。教育产业化不仅可以实现与经济的融通，促进教育和经济共同发展，而且有利于减少教育的政府投资，从而把政府预算中的一定量的教育基…     

培育内需增长基础促进投资与消费良性循环

20 0 3年 ,新疆宏观经济运行态势良好 ,内需增长是个关键因素。要保持新疆经济发展的良好势头 ,今后就应该进一步扩大内需 ,拉动投资增长 ,使政府投资和民间投资共同推进 ,形成投资与消费的良性循环机制 ,解决有效需求不足这一制约当前新疆经济增长的主要矛盾     

调节收入分配结构是我国经济实现平稳增长的关键

在目前世界经济下滑的背景下,我国过去那种靠较快的出口增长率和政府大规模投资来刺激内需从而拉动经济增长的模式已经难以为继,从而拉动经济增长的重心应进一步向消费偏移。然而,当前我国的消费需求现状却不令人满意,主要原因在于我国的收入分配结构不合理,因此,必须采取有效措施从源头上调整收入分配结构,提高居民的消费水平,实现经济平衡增长。     

当前通货膨胀的深层次原因分析和治理研究

本文从归纳当前通货膨胀的主要特点入手,发现目前的通货膨胀呈现出明显的周期性、结构性和非平衡性,得到了输入型通货膨胀只是表象,周期性通货膨胀才是本质的结论。然后,通过从需求拉动、成本推动和结构性层面的深入剖析,发掘本次危机深层次的经济原因是当前的流动性过剩、投资拉动的经济增长方式和结构性失衡。最后,针对这些原因,本文提出了应该回收流动性、刺激内需、深化汇率改革等相应的通货膨胀治理建议。     

扩大内需是我国发展经济的一个基本立足点

１９９８年下半年，国家提出了扩大内需的方针，对拉动经济有效增长起了积极作用。有人认为这个方针是为应付亚洲金融危机给我国造成的负面影响提出来的，是带有临时性的方针。其实并非如此。从战略上看，扩大内需，是我国发展经济的一个基本立足点。扩大内需是我国经济发展的基本立足点经济增长，一般来说，是由需求和供给共同作用的结果，其中需求拉动则是主要方面。但是，需求有国内需求即内需和出口形成的国外需求即外需。发展经济，内需和外需的拉动都是必要的，而且是非常重要的。然而，内需和外需相比较，内需的拉动更重要，它是一个…     

内需不振的原因及政策建议

近年来,我国消费对GDP增长的贡献份额连续大幅下降。自2008年以来,为应对全球经济金融危机、促进经济平稳较快发展,中央和地方政府大规模增加政府投资,实施总额4万亿元的投资计划,试图通过拉动国内需求,实现＂扩内需、保增长、调结构＂的战略目标。文章从全球经济金融危机和我国开启新一轮积极财政政策这一大背景出发,运用经济学相关理论,从宏观的角度分析了我国＂内需不振＂的原因,并提出若干政策建议。     

居民消费高质量增长机制：优化公共消费

扩大内需是国内大循环的战略基点,居民消费既是内需的主体,亦是培育完整内需体系的关键性基础,而公共消费因对居民消费具有乘数效应、消费挤入效应、人力资本投资效应和再分配效应成为居民消费高质量增长的重要机制。当前公共消费总量不足、不充分、不平衡及结构差异已制约了居民消费效应,需要进行需求侧改革,优化以公共消费影响居民收入分配和预防性储蓄,进而促进居民消费、带动经济高质量发展的动力机制,将宏观政策从投资转向消费,促经济发展由“投资驱动”向“消费拉动”转变。     

论解决"三农"问题与扩大内需

本文结合国家采取扩大内需确保经济平稳较快增长的经济政策,通过对投入拉动内需、消费拉动内需的经济学分析,认为应借扩大内需之机既促进"三农"问题的解决,又在解决"三农"问题中使内需得到充分的扩大。     

论潜价值与显价值及其转化

潜价值与显价值是价值的两种表现形式。潜价值是指被评价主体意识到但并没有生发出来的价值。显价值是指在实践领域中评价对象的功能价值和效应价值。显价值与潜价值是一对矛盾对立的价值表现形式．二者可以互相转化。不管是对物的潜价值与显价值、对人的潜价值与显价值、还是对事的潜价值与显价值，都在实践活动中各自可以发生转化。     

参与性贫困评估和扶贫战略的调整:来自贫困者的声音

作者通过对广西、云南、贵州、青海和宁夏五省区50多个村进行参与性贫困评估，从贫困者自身的角度，对什么是贫困、谁是贫困者、什么时候最贫困、导致贫困的原因以及如何使其尽快摆脱贫困等问题作了深入分析。在此基础上，对完善我国的扶贫政策和策略提出了自己的看法。     

“Mainstreaming” content analysis in social science: Methodological advantages,obstacles, and solutions

The history of content analysis is reviewed and reasons for its continuing underutilization are identified. The technique's isolation from mainstream social science results in low-quality studies and methodological underdevelopment. Still, advantages of the method indicate it has great potential for social science. Specific suggestions are made for applying established research techniques to content analysis. Sampling, research design, reliability and validity assessment, concept operationalization, and related principles and techniques are illustrated with a content analysis study of religious belief popularization. The relative merits of coding manifest content versus latent, thematic analysis are assessed. Manifest characteristics can be coded more reliably but thematic indicators provide greater measurement efficiency in the example. Implications for computerized coding are discussed. Inference from communication texts and the value of empirically studying communication patterns for social scientific objectives are presented as complementing research on individuals and social structures.     

Going most of the way: “Technical virginity” among American adolescents

Reports from academic and media sources assert that many young people substitute non-vaginal sexual activities for vaginal intercourse in order to maintain what could be called “technical virginity.” Explanations for technical virginity, however, are based on weak empirical evidence and considerable speculation. Using a sample of 15–19-year-olds from Cycle 6 of the National Survey of Family Growth, we examine technical virginity and its motivations. The results suggest that religious adolescents are less likely than less-religious ones to opt for non-vaginal sex over total abstinence. Abstinence pledgers who are virgins are neither more nor less likely than nonpledgers who are virgins to substitute non-vaginal sex for intercourse. Moreover, religion and morality are actually the weakest motivators of sexual substitution among adolescents who have not had vaginal sex. Preserving technical virginity is instead more common among virgins who are driven by a desire to avoid potential life-altering consequences, like pregnancy and sexually transmitted diseases.     

The ‘developmental gradient’ revisited: Australian children's time with adult caregivers from infancy to middle childhood

Children's time use patterns represent a potentially important mechanism for the transmission of disadvantage across generations. Recent international research indicates that more educated mothers tailor the content of time with children to favour activities that are particularly important at different developmental stages – a finding that has been termed the ‘developmental gradient’. Using time diary data for a sample of Australian children, this paper seeks to extend previous work in several ways. We first establish whether a ‘developmental gradient’ exists in Australian children's time with mothers, comparable to the results from international studies. We go further, however, by extending the analysis to consider time investments provided by fathers and other adult caregivers, and examining the importance of resources for explaining the patterns of time use. Consistent with theory, our results indicate that educational gaps in time spent ‘teaching’ are largest in the 4–5 age group, gaps in ‘play’ time with fathers are largest for toddlers (2–3), and gaps in ‘enrichment’ are largest for 6–7 and 8–9. Time with parents appears to be the primary driver of observed patterns of time spent ‘teaching’ and ‘playing’, while for ‘enrichment,’ differences are distributed across caregivers, but largest for non-parent caregivers. These results are not driven by differential access to resources. Our results suggest that the developmental gradient represents a plausible mechanism for the transmission of intergenerational disadvantage in Australia, and that policy responses focussed on better educating parents to understand the developmental needs of their children are likely to be an effective response.     

网络传播教育的现状及人才培养模式

目前我国网络传播教育存在着两种层次三种形态。两种层次指研究生层次的网络传播教育和本科生层次的网络传播教育,三种形态指硕士学位的研究方向、学士学位的专业方向、学士学位的专业课程。两种层次三种形态的网络传播教育,构成了我国当前网络传播教育的基本格局。我国网络新闻传播人才培养存在以下问题:网络新闻传播专业尚未有一个统一的学科名称,课程体系混乱,理论与实践脱节。我国网络传播人才培养的目标为复合型人才。培养模式要符合以下要求:课程体系应包括新闻、传播知识模块,计算机网络应用与多媒体技术模块,人文综合素质模块;学生要有理工科的背景,走与网站联合的路子。     

试论当代汉语新词语研究的两个问题

当代汉语新词语是世界进入信息时代和我国进行改革开放的产物。新词语研究是一个热门的课题。语言学界对新词语的研究取得了令人瞩目的成就 ,同时也有一些问题值得进一步探讨。文章主要讨论两个问题 :第一个问题是新词语的界定问题 ,从名称、特点、范围三方面探讨新词语的界定 ,分析了几种名称的利弊得失 ,指出了新词语的六个特点及包含的范围。第二个问题是新词语的规范化问题 ,主要讨论新词语要不要规范 ,如何规范的问题。     

The anatomy of social network linkages

Social network analysis has developed impressively during the last quarter century, producing a variety of formal models and innumerable field studies. However problems of articulation have developed between the formal models and field studies. This paper is predicated upon the judgement that the solution to this difficulty lies in more (not less) highly elaborated formal models. The aim is to present a means for representing a very broad range of social phenomena using digraphs. Departing from an anatomical investigation of the linkages and nodes of conventionally represented network structures, and from a modified exchange-theoretic concept of sanction, means are presented for conceiving social interaction as flows of sanctions and messages which are depicted as arcs in a diagraph whose nodes represent social actors. Means are also presented for representing value systems, belief systems, and message content in digraph terms. Finally, several implications are discussed of the proposed conception of networks. It is suggested that its employment in the field may increase the range of phenomena formally expressible in network models, without thereby making excessive demands for inaccessible data. Second, means are proposed for experimentally realizing selected digraphs in the small-group laboratory and for coordinating field with laboratory investigations. Third, suggestions are made for integrating social network analysis with a formal decision theory, such as mathematical decision theory or bargaining theory. The result is formal models to which systems theory may be applied as a methodology for system simulations.     

Recursive models for categorical data

Standard methods for recursive models with continuous endogenous variables are extended to models with categorical endogenous variables. The concept of a reduced-form equation is generalized in a natural way to cover nonlinear regression functions and, in particular, models with categorical endogenous variables. Maximum-likelihood estimation and asymptotic chi-square tests are described. Two numerical examples are presented: a linear recursive two-equation model for all-categorical data, and a combined linear and logit three-equation recursive model with both categorical and continuous endogenous variables. Limitations of the present work and directions for further extension are noted.     

利用传统文化的德育资源改进高校思想政治教育工作

高校思想政治教育实效性缺失已成为不争的事实,如何摆脱困境,成为亟待解决的难题。中国传统文化蕴含着丰富的道德资源,其中有的德育资源经过改造和发展,在今天仍有强大的生命力和教育价值,如为人民、为集体、为国家的爱国主义精神;积极进取,自强不息的奋斗精神;加强修养,严以律己、宽以待人的美德;＂仁爱＂、孝敬父母的美德;诚信、明辨义利的美德。中国传统文化中的一些优秀思想,有利于削弱市场经济的负效应,抵御外来文化冲击;有利于增强高校思想政治教育的吸引力、渗透力;有利于提高大学生的道德修养。