On completely data-driven bandwidth selection for single-index models

The class of single-index models (SIMs) has become an important tool for nonparametric regression analysis. As with any other nonparametric regression models, the selection of bandwidth plays an important role in the inferences of the SIMs. However, most results in the literature either take the bandwidths as externally given, or require unpractical assumptions or very restrictive conditions for data-driven bandwidths. We examine the asymptotic properties of a popular bandwidth selection method based on cross-validation that is completely data-driven, under much weaker conditions than those assumed in the literature. And we show that the same bandwidth that is optimal for estimating the index vector, can be used for nearly optimal error variance estimation through the method of varying cross-validation. A simulation study is presented to demonstrate the finite sample performance of the proposed procedures, based on which we recommend a simple 2-step procedure for bandwidth selection, index vector estimation, as well as error variance estimation.     

Estimation under inverse Weibull distribution based on Balakrishnan’s unified hybrid censored scheme

In this article, point and interval estimations of the parameters α and β of the inverse Weibull distribution (IWD) have been studied based on Balakrishnan’s unified hybrid censoring scheme (UHCS), see Balakrishnan et al. In point estimation, the maximum likelihood (ML) and Bayes (B) methods have been used. The Bayes estimates have been computed based on squared error loss (SEL) function and Linex loss function and using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm. In interval estimation, a (1 ? τ) × 100% approximate, bootstrap-p, credible and highest posterior density (HPD) confidence intervals (CI′s) for the parameters α and β have been introduced. Based on Monte Carlo simulation, Bayes estimates have been compared with their corresponding maximum likelihood estimates by computing the mean squared errors (MSE′s) of all estimators. Finally, point and interval estimations of all parameters have been studied based on a real data set as an illustrative example.     

The IPW estimator for the joint distribution function of the gap times from recurrent event data

Lee et al. in 2016 proposed a nonparametric estimator of the joint distribution of the gap time between transplant and the first infection and the following gap times between consecutive infections. In this article, we propose an alternative estimator based on the inverse-probability weighted (IPW) approach. Asymptotic properties of the proposed estimator are established . Simulation results indicate that the IPW estimator performs as well as the estimator proposed by Lee et al. We also propose an IPW estimator for estimating the joint distribution function of the gap times between consecutive recurrent events beyond the first episode.     

A model-averaging approach for smoothing spline regression

ABSTRACT

This article considers nonparametric regression problems and develops a model-averaging procedure for smoothing spline regression problems. Unlike most smoothing parameter selection studies determining an optimum smoothing parameter, our focus here is on the prediction accuracy for the true conditional mean of Y given a predictor X. Our method consists of two steps. The first step is to construct a class of smoothing spline regression models based on nonparametric bootstrap samples, each with an appropriate smoothing parameter. The second step is to average bootstrap smoothing spline estimates of different smoothness to form a final improved estimate. To minimize the prediction error, we estimate the model weights using a delete-one-out cross-validation procedure. A simulation study has been performed by using a program written in R. The simulation study provides a comparison of the most well known cross-validation (CV), generalized cross-validation (GCV), and the proposed method. This new method is straightforward to implement, and gives reliable performances in simulations.     

Adaptive smoothing in associated kernel discrete functions estimation using Bayesian approach

This paper demonstrates that cross-validation (CV) and Bayesian adaptive bandwidth selection can be applied in the estimation of associated kernel discrete functions. This idea is originally proposed by Brewer [A Bayesian model for local smoothing in kernel density estimation, Stat. Comput. 10 (2000), pp. 299–309] to derive variable bandwidths in adaptive kernel density estimation. Our approach considers the adaptive binomial kernel estimator and treats the variable bandwidths as parameters with beta prior distribution. The best variable bandwidth selector is estimated by the posterior mean in the Bayesian sense under squared error loss. Monte Carlo simulations are conducted to examine the performance of the proposed Bayesian adaptive approach in comparison with the performance of the Asymptotic mean integrated squared error estimator and CV technique for selecting a global (fixed) bandwidth proposed in Kokonendji and Senga Kiessé [Discrete associated kernels method and extensions, Stat. Methodol. 8 (2011), pp. 497–516]. The Bayesian adaptive bandwidth estimator performs better than the global bandwidth, in particular for small and moderate sample sizes.     

Doubly robust empirical likelihood inference in covariate-missing data problems

Missing covariate data occurs often in regression analysis. We study methods for estimating the regression coefficients in an assumed conditional mean function when some covariates are completely observed but other covariates are missing for some subjects. We adopt the semiparametric perspective of Robins et al. [Estimation of regression coefficients when some regressors are not always observed. J Amer Statist Assoc. 1994;89:846–866] on regression analyses with missing covariates, in which they pioneered the use of two working models, the working propensity score model and the working conditional score model. A recent approach to missing covariate data analysis is the empirical likelihood method of Qin et al. [Empirical likelihood in missing data problems. J Amer Statist Assoc. 2009;104:1492–1503], which effectively combines unbiased estimating equations. In this paper, we consider an alternative likelihood approach based on the full likelihood of the observed data. This full likelihood-based method enables us to generate estimators for the vector of the regression coefficients that are (a) asymptotically equivalent to those of Qin et al. [Empirical likelihood in missing data problems. J Amer Statist Assoc. 2009;104:1492–1503] when the working propensity score model is correctly specified, and (b) doubly robust, like the augmented inverse probability weighting (AIPW) estimators of Robins et al. [Estimation of regression coefficients when some regressors are not always observed. J Am Statist Assoc. 1994;89:846–866]. Thus, the proposed full likelihood-based estimators improve on the efficiency of the AIPW estimators when the working propensity score model is correct but the working conditional score model is possibly incorrect, and also improve on the empirical likelihood estimators of Qin, Zhang and Leung [Empirical likelihood in missing data problems. J Amer Statist Assoc. 2009;104:1492–1503] when the reverse is true, that is, the working conditional score model is correct but the working propensity score model is possibly incorrect. In addition, we consider a regression method for estimation of the regression coefficients when the working conditional score model is correctly specified; the asymptotic variance of the resulting estimator is no greater than the semiparametric variance bound characterized by the theory of Robins et al. [Estimation of regression coefficients when some regressors are not always observed. J Amer Statist Assoc. 1994;89:846–866]. Finally, we compare the finite-sample performance of various estimators in a simulation study.     

Statistical inference on asymptotic properties of two estimators for the partially linear single-index models

The outer product of gradients (OPG) estimation procedure based on least squares (LS) approach has been presented by Xia et al. [An adaptive estimation of dimension reduction space. J Roy Statist Soc Ser B. 2002;64:363–410] to estimate the single-index parameter in partially linear single-index models (PLSIM). However, its asymptotic property has not been established yet and the efficiency of LS-based method can be significantly affected by outliers and heavy-tailed distributions. In this paper, we firstly derive the asymptotic property of OPG estimator developed by Xia et al. [An adaptive estimation of dimension reduction space. J Roy Statist Soc Ser B. 2002;64:363–410] in theory, and a novel robust estimation procedure combining the ideas of OPG and local rank (LR) inference is further developed for PLSIM along with its theoretical property. Then, we theoretically derive the asymptotic relative efficiency (ARE) of the proposed LR-based procedure with respect to LS-based method, which is shown to possess an expression that is closely related to that of the signed-rank Wilcoxon test in comparison with the t-test. Moreover, we demonstrate that the new proposed estimator has a great efficiency gain across a wide spectrum of non-normal error distributions and almost not lose any efficiency for the normal error. Even in the worst case scenarios, the ARE owns a lower bound equalling to 0.864 for estimating the single-index parameter and a lower bound being 0.8896 for estimating the nonparametric function respectively, versus the LS-based estimators. Finally, some Monte Carlo simulations and a real data analysis are conducted to illustrate the finite sample performance of the estimators.     

Using difference-based methods for inference in nonparametric regression with time series errors

Summary. We show that difference-based methods can be used to construct simple and explicit estimators of error covariance and autoregressive parameters in nonparametric regression with time series errors. When the error process is Gaussian our estimators are efficient, but they are available well beyond the Gaussian case. As an illustration of their usefulness we show that difference-based estimators can be used to produce a simplified version of time series cross-validation. This new approach produces a bandwidth selector that is equivalent, to both first and second orders, to that given by the full time series cross-validation algorithm. Other applications of difference-based methods are to variance estimation and construction of confidence bands in nonparametric regression.     

Uniformly strong consistency and Berry-Esseen bound of frequency polygons for α-mixing samples

In this article, the frequency polygon investigated by Scott is studied as a nonparametric estimator for α-mixing samples. By some known exponent and moment inequalities, we obtain the uniformly strong consistency and Berry-Esseen bound of the estimator. The present results relax the relevant conditions used by Carbon et al. Furthermore, the convergence rate of the uniformly asymptotic normality is derived, which is O(n^{? 1/11}) under the given conditions.     

On regression modelling with dummy variables versus separate regressions per group: Comment on Holgersson et al.

In a recent issue of this journal, Holgersson et al. [Dummy variables vs. category-wise models, J. Appl. Stat. 41(2) (2014), pp. 233–241, doi:10.1080/02664763.2013.838665] compared the use of dummy coding in regression analysis to the use of category-wise models (i.e. estimating separate regression models for each group) with respect to estimating and testing group differences in intercept and in slope. They presented three objections against the use of dummy variables in a single regression equation, which could be overcome by the category-wise approach. In this note, I first comment on each of these three objections and next draw attention to some other issues in comparing these two approaches. This commentary further clarifies the differences and similarities between dummy variable and category-wise approaches.     

Mean and sensitivity estimation of a sensitive variable through additive scrambling

Abstract

This article focuses on reducing the additional variance due to randomization of the responses. The idea of additive scrambling and its inverse has been used along with (i) split sample approach and (ii) double response approach. Specifically, our proposal is based on Gupta et al. (2006) randomized response model. We selected this model for improvement because it provides estimator of mean and sensitivity level of a sensitive variable and is better than all of its competitors proposed earlier to it and even Gupta et al. (2006) sensitivity estimator is better than that of Gupta et al. (2010). Our suggested estimators are unbiased estimators and perform better than Gupta et al. (2006) estimator. The issue of privacy protection is also discussed.     

A new quasi empirical bayes estimate in randomized response sampling

In this article, a new notion of “quasi-empirical” Bayes estimation is developed for estimating the proportion of a sensitive attribute in a population by making use of both a prior distribution of prevalence of the sensitive attribute in addition to the known prior distribution of an unrelated characteristic. The proposed quasi-empirical Bayes estimate is compared with those of the unrelated question model due to Greenberg et al. by means of a simulation study.     

Empirical bayes estimation of binomial parameter with symmetric priors

This paper deals with the problem of estimating the binomial parameter via the nonparametric empirical Bayes approach. This estimation problem has the feature that estimators which are asymptotically optimal in the usual empirical Bayes sense do not exist (Robbins (1958, 1964)), However, as pointed out by Liang (1934) and Gupta and Liang (1988), it is possible to construct asymptotically optimal empirical Bayes estimators if the unknown prior is symmetric about the point 1/2, In this paper, assuming symmetric priors a monotone empirical Bayes estimator is constructed by using the isotonic regression method. This estimator is asymptotically optimal in the usual empirical Bayes sense. The corresponding rate of convergence is investigated and shown to be of order n^-1, where n is the number of past observations at hand.     

Subsampling-extrapolation bandwidth selection in bivariate kernel density estimation

This paper focuses on bivariate kernel density estimation that bridges the gap between univariate and multivariate applications. We propose a subsampling-extrapolation bandwidth matrix selector that improves the reliability of the conventional cross-validation method. The proposed procedure combines a U-statistic expression of the mean integrated squared error and asymptotic theory, and can be used in both cases of diagonal bandwidth matrix and unconstrained bandwidth matrix. In the subsampling stage, one takes advantage of the reduced variability of estimating the bandwidth matrix at a smaller subsample size m (m < n); in the extrapolation stage, a simple linear extrapolation is used to remove the incurred bias. Simulation studies reveal that the proposed method reduces the variability of the cross-validation method by about 50% and achieves an expected integrated squared error that is up to 30% smaller than that of the benchmark cross-validation. It shows comparable or improved performance compared to other competitors across six distributions in terms of the expected integrated squared error. We prove that the components of the selected bivariate bandwidth matrix have an asymptotic multivariate normal distribution, and also present the relative rate of convergence of the proposed bandwidth selector.     

Bayesian Bandwidth Estimation in Nonparametric Time-Varying Coefficient Models

Bandwidth plays an important role in determining the performance of nonparametric estimators, such as the local constant estimator. In this article, we propose a Bayesian approach to bandwidth estimation for local constant estimators of time-varying coefficients in time series models. We establish a large sample theory for the proposed bandwidth estimator and Bayesian estimators of the unknown parameters involved in the error density. A Monte Carlo simulation study shows that (i) the proposed Bayesian estimators for bandwidth and parameters in the error density have satisfactory finite sample performance; and (ii) our proposed Bayesian approach achieves better performance in estimating the bandwidths than the normal reference rule and cross-validation. Moreover, we apply our proposed Bayesian bandwidth estimation method for the time-varying coefficient models that explain Okun’s law and the relationship between consumption growth and income growth in the U.S. For each model, we also provide calibrated parametric forms of the time-varying coefficients. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.     

Estimating the error variance in nonparametric regression by a covariate-matched u-statistic

For nonparametric regression models with fixed and random design, two classes of estimators for the error variance have been introduced: second sample moments based on residuals from a nonparametric fit, and difference-based estimators. The former are asymptotically optimal but require estimating the regression function; the latter are simple but have larger asymptotic variance. For nonparametric regression models with random covariates, we introduce a class of estimators for the error variance that are related to difference-based estimators: covariate-matched U-statistics. We give conditions on the random weights involved that lead to asymptotically optimal estimators of the error variance. Our explicit construction of the weights uses a kernel estimator for the covariate density.     

Bayesian local bandwidth selector in multivariate associated kernel estimator for joint probability mass functions

ABSTRACT

This work treats non-parametric estimation of multivariate probability mass functions, using multivariate discrete associated kernels. We propose a Bayesian local approach to select the matrix of bandwidths considering the multivariate Dirac Discrete Uniform and the product of binomial kernels, and treating the bandwidths as a diagonal matrix of parameters with some prior distribution. The performances of this approach and the cross-validation method are compared using simulations and real count data sets. The obtained results show that the Bayes local method performs better than cross-validation in terms of integrated squared error.     

On Variance-Stabilizing Multivariate Non Parametric Regression Estimation

The mean squared error (MSE)-minimizing local variable bandwidth for the univariate local linear estimator (the LL) is well-known. This bandwidth does not stabilize variance over the domain. Moreover, in regions where a regression function has zero curvature, the LL estimator is discontinuous. In this paper, we propose a variance-stabilizing (VS) local variable diagonal bandwidth matrix for the multivariate LL estimator. Theoretically, the VS bandwidth can outperform the multivariate extension of the MSE-minimizing local variable scalar bandwidth in terms of asymptotic mean integrated squared error and can avoid discontinuity created by the MSE-minimizing bandwidth. We present an algorithm for estimating the VS bandwidth and simulation studies.     

Modified ratio estimators using robust regression methods

When there is an outlier in the data set, the efficiency of traditional methods decreases. In order to solve this problem, Kadilar et al. (2007) adapted Huber-M method which is only one of robust regression methods to ratio-type estimators and decreased the effect of outlier problem. In this study, new ratio-type estimators are proposed by considering Tukey-M, Hampel M, Huber MM, LTS, LMS and LAD robust methods based on the Kadilar et al. (2007). Theoretically, we obtain the mean square error (MSE) for these estimators. We compared with MSE values of proposed estimators and MSE values of estimators based on Huber-M and OLS methods. As a result of these comparisons, we observed that our proposed estimators give more efficient results than both Huber M approach which was proposed by Kadilar et al. (2007) and OLS approach. Also, under all conditions, all of the other proposed estimators except Lad method are more efficient than robust estimators proposed by Kadilar et al. (2007). And, these theoretical results are supported with the aid of a numerical example and simulation by basing on data that includes an outlier.