民族地区城镇贫困动态演化与经济增长益贫性研究

本文利用FGT贫困指数对2000-2011年民族地区城镇绝对贫困和相对贫困进行了测度．分析了民族地区城镇贫困的动态演化特征。并利用减贫的收入、分配弹性以及贫困指数的Shapley分解。研究了民族地区经济增长益贫性问题。结果表明,民族地区城镇绝对贫困持续缓解,但受收入分配格局变化的影响,相对贫困问题开始凸显。经济增长的减贫效率体现出较为显著的阶段性和外部冲击敏感性。在制定和实施同质性减贫政策的同时．应该凸显贫困人口内部的异质性。同时,构建对本地城镇贫困人口更为包容和稳健的经济发展方式是未来民族地区实现城镇减贫的关键。     

西北地区城镇居民贫困程度的测度与实证分析

西北地区五省是我国西部大开发战略的重点发展省份,作为欠发达地区,城镇居民的贫困问题阻碍了城镇功能的充分发挥,成为制约地方发展的重要因素。通过对西北五省FGT贫困指数的测算发现,陕西贫困状况改善最为明显;甘肃和宁夏也有比较明显的减贫效果;青海成为目前西北五省中贫困问题最严重的省份;新疆贫困控制效果差,贫困问题突出。与全国相比,西北地区仍然是城镇贫困问题较严重的地区。实证分析的结果显示,经济增长和财政支出能够有效地降低城镇贫困,收入分配不均却加重了贫困程度。对西北地区而言,减贫不仅要追求经济效应,更应关注社会公平。     

土地流转、农户创业与多维相对贫困缓解——基于中国家庭追踪调查数据的实证分析

在解决绝对贫困问题之后，为实现全体人民共同富裕的远大目标，如何有效缓解相对贫困问题是后扶贫时代工作的重点和难点。土地有序流转是后扶贫时代防止返贫致贫、助力农户实现多元增收的有效路径，对驱动农户多维相对贫困缓解具有重要价值。文章基于中国家庭追踪调查（CFPS2018）微观数据构建多维相对贫困指标体系，采用A-F双界限法测度农户多维相对贫困状况，实证分析土地流转对农户多维相对贫困的影响效应，进一步利用中介效应模型分析农户创业的机制作用。研究结果表明：土地流转有助于缓解农户多维相对贫困，与未流转户相比，流转户陷入多维相对贫困的概率明显下降。进一步分析发现东、西部具有显著的多维减贫效应，但中部不显著；此外，土地转出的多维减贫效应明显强于土地转入。中介效应检验发现，土地流转能够通过影响农户创业实现多维相对贫困的缓解。鉴于此，提出完善土地流转制度、健全农村社会保障体系、精准做好多维相对贫困的识别工作、因地制宜制定相关创业扶持政策等对策建议，这为巩固脱贫攻坚成果、扎实推进第二个百年奋斗目标实现提供参考。     

中国教育贫困测度及模拟分析:1982—2010

运用FGT指数,对1982—2010年我国教育贫困进行测度、因素分解和模拟分析,结果表明:总体上,教育贫困各指标下降明显,但下降的幅度和速率各不相同,教育贫困强度降幅最大,降速最快,其次是教育贫困深度,而教育贫困发生率降幅最小,速度最慢;教育发展和教育资源分配都能缓解教育贫困,但教育贫困发生率的变化主要因教育发展所致,而教育贫困深度和强度的变化则主要由教育资源分配引起;教育贫困各指标对贫困线的变动均具有较强的敏感性,教育贫困强度最敏感。     

新疆农村贫困程度测度与扶贫资金动态绩效分析

新疆作为一个多民族、多宗教、多文化、多语言共存的特殊地区,扎实应对和稳步解决新疆贫困问题,事关祖国边疆的安全与稳定。首先,通过测算1994—2009年FGT贫困指数后发现:新疆农村的贫困广度、贫困深度和贫困强度的变化趋势具有波动性和阶段性特征,而且近几年减贫速度明显放缓,甚至有趋于加重的趋势;新疆农村居民的收入差距状况也不容乐观,正处于危险的边缘。然后,利用状态空间模型分析扶贫资金对贫困程度的动态扶贫绩效,得出以下结论:信贷扶贫资金的整体表现最佳,财政扶贫资金作用居中,以工代赈资金则在降低贫困强度方面表现较好;同时,总结出以下规律:当贫困程度较深时,具有较强盈利性的信贷扶贫资金和较强扩散性的财政扶贫资金更为有效;当由大范围贫困转为少数人贫困时,具有较强针对性的以工代赈资金更为有效。     

中国老年贫困人口规模研究

利用最低生活保障数据,采用不同贫困标准,对中国老年贫困人口规模进行测算。采用农村贫困线和"1天1美元"两个标准,测得农村老年贫困人口规模在1 400万人以上;采用城镇最低生活保障标准和"1天2美元"两个标准,测得城镇老年贫困人口规模在300万人左右。这样,中国老年贫困人口总规模近1 800万,老年贫困发生率超过10%。     

贫困地区农户的多维贫困测量与分解——基于2010年中国农村贫困监测的农户数据

多维贫困能够较为全面地反映贫困地区农户生活状况。本文利用具有全国代表性的中国农村贫困监测调查数据对我国农村贫困地区多维贫困状况进行测量,并对多维贫困指数进行分解。研究发现,低收入农户经受着更为严重的多维贫困状况,低收入农户和中等偏下农户多维贫困状况对贫困线变动更为敏感,但贫困线的提高更为显著地增加了中等偏下组农户的多维贫困贡献率。因贫困人口数量的不同,各省农户多维贫困程度和其贡献率并不一致。特殊类型贫困地区多维贫困状况致贫原因中,地形因素的影响大于民族特征因素。贫困维度分解表明,我国农村贫困地区农户面临的最严重问题是饮水问题而非增收问题。     

劳动力流动对农户多维相对贫困的影响研究

劳动力流动能够提高资源配置效率，带动农村家庭增收致富，从而为实现共同富裕目标奠定基础。文章基于中国家庭追踪调查（CFPS）2014～2018年数据，首先利用A-F方法从收入、教育、健康、资产、住房、生活水平、社会保障、主观态度八个维度对农户多维相对贫困剥夺得分进行测度，利用面板双向固定效应、倾向匹配得分法实证劳动力流动对农户多维相对贫困的影响。其次，将流动的劳动力是否有资金汇回纳入分析框架，进一步佐证劳动力流动的减贫效应。再次，采用中介效应模型研究劳动力流动对农户多维相对贫困的社会资本减贫机制。最后，利用面板随机Probit模型从单个维度分别探究劳动力流动的减贫效应及其异质性。研究发现：（1）无论流动的劳动力是否有资金汇回，劳动力流动能够显著缓解农户多维相对贫困且具有稳健性。（2）劳动力流动可以通过扩大其社会关系网络和社会声望缓解农户多维相对贫困。（3）劳动力流动显著缓解除教育以外物质层面的贫困维度，但加剧了社会保障及主观态度维度的贫困。（4）劳动力流动增加了低人力资本水平农村家庭及中年期、老年期农村家庭陷入社会保障维度贫困的概率，降低了青年期家庭陷入社会保障维度贫困的概率，增加了中、...     

中国普惠金融对农村贫困人口的减贫效应研究

消除贫困是当前各国政府面临的重大难题之一。文章基于我国普惠金融发展指数(IFI)构建了一个普惠金融减缓农村贫困人口贫困的理论框架,采用我国30个省市(西藏除外)2010-2016年面板数据实证检验了我国普惠金融对农村贫困人口的减贫效应。研究表明2010-2016年我国普惠金融发展水平不高,但呈上升趋势。此外,我国普惠金融发展存在空间收敛趋势,东部地区普惠金融发展水平整体高于中西部地区,但中西部地区普惠金融发展速度要快于东部地区。实证检验得出我国普惠金融具有显著的农村贫困人口减贫效应,呈现出先减小后扩大的U型特征,我国普惠金融针对农村贫困人口减贫作用存在某一拐点值,在普惠金融发展水平达到拐点值后,减贫效应不断增强。在控制变量中,政府对经济干预、人力资本与交通基础设施都具有减贫效应,而过大的城乡收入差距对减缓农村贫困人口贫困不利。进一步分析发现我国普惠金融对农村贫困人口的减贫效应也存在较强的空间异质性,中西部地区的普惠金融减贫效果要优于东部地区。中西部地区政府对经济干预将有效降低农村贫困发生率,但东部地区政府经济干预对减缓农村贫困人口贫困的作用不显著。但两大地区的人力资本水平、交通基础设施、城乡收入差距的减贫效应实证结果与全国样本相一致。     

城镇贫困的因素分析及反贫困政策建议

文章主要以浙江省城镇贫困的实证分析为例,探讨城镇反贫困的有效政策。作者测定了近两年的浙江省城镇居民收入贫困线和有关贫困指数、1997年以来相对贫困的变动轨迹、低保规模和标准,分析了影响浙江省城镇贫困的若干原因,在此基础上提出了城镇反贫困的若干政策建议。     

城乡统筹战略指导下的农村最低生活保障制度建设

最低生活保障制度是绝大多数市场经济国家普遍实行的以保障全体公民基本生存权利为目标的社会救助制度。针对我国目前城乡分割的二元社会结构，基于长期以来在计划经济时期形成的重城市轻农村的发展思路，城镇和农村实施的是内容和标准完全不同、甚至是城镇低保制度优于农村低保制度的不公平的现状。如何有效解决农村的贫困问题是一个值得深思和解决的问题。本文认为，以城乡统筹的战略发展思路，建立健全农村最低生活保障制度。探索城乡统一的居民最低生活保障制度，是一条解决城乡贫困问题的有效的制度安排和政策选择。     

弹性城市化与农民工反贫困：基于城乡统筹的视角

主流观点认为农民工问题的根本出路不在农村而在城市．支持通过加速城市化进程的方式来解决农民工问题。但在中国人口整体规模过大情况下，完全实行人口自由流动或迫使人口向城市流动的政策，结果只能是贫困人口向城市的搬迁和聚集。较现实的方式是：长期稳定和完善中国农民自己创造的城乡间往返流动模式．即弹性城市化模式。这在一定程度有效地平衡了市场条件下的城市化限制与农村低收入之间的矛盾，降低城市严重贫困化的风险。     

Income,deprivation and economic stress in the enlarged European Union

At risk of poverty indicators based on relative income measures suggest that within the enlarged EU societies located at quite different points on a continuum of affluence have similar levels of poverty. Substantial differences in levels of income between societies do not in themselves invalidate this approach. However, the relative income approach fails to capture the fact that, if countries are grouped in terms of level of GDP, between economic cluster differences in life-style deprivation are sharper at lower income levels. Support for the argument relating to restricted reference groups is found in relation to the contrast between the twelve most affluent EU countries and all others. The limitations of relative income poverty lines have little to do with the process of enlargement as such. Instead the major problem involves the weak association between income and deprivation in the more affluent countries. However, as a consequence of such difficulties, such indicators do not provide entirely meaningful comparisons of levels of disadvantage across economic clusters. The current analysis, rather than supporting the alternative of a focus on absolute income or an EU wide poverty line, suggests that we should take the argument for adopting a multidimensional approach to the measurement of poverty more seriously.     

Multidimensional Poverty in China: Findings Based on the CHNS

This paper estimates multidimensional poverty in China by applying the Alkire-Foster methodology to the China Health and Nutrition Survey 2000–2009 data. Five dimensions are included: income, living standard, education, health and social security. Results suggest that rapid economic growth has resulted not only in a reduction in income poverty but also in a reduction in multidimensional poverty in the last decade, both in terms of its prevalence and intensity. However, many challenges remain. There are wide disparities across provinces and between urban and rural areas, with poverty being 1.5 times higher in rural areas than in urban ones in 2009. Moreover, rising deprivation in education in rural and less developed provinces should also be a policymaking concern.     

"Struggling to Keep the Wolf from the Door"? Analysis of Rural Poverty Using a Consumption-Based Approach in West Belesa District,Ethiopia

Ethiopia has one of the highest poverty rates in the world where 24% of the population lives in extreme poverty. While urban poverty reduced from 26% in 2011 to 15% in 2016, rural poverty reduced only from 30 to 26% in the same periods. Improper identification of the rural poor and ill-understanding of the extent of rural poverty is among the challenges in designing appropriate poverty reduction interventions in rural areas. Thus, this study analyzes the extent of rural poverty employing a consumption-based approach and identifies the determinants of rural poverty at a household level. A household survey was conducted and data were randomly collected from 194 households from four representative villages in the west Belesa district of Ethiopia. The food and non-food consumption measurement calculated by the cost of basic need approach were 2949.40 ETB (ETB is Ethiopian Birr, which is the Ethiopian currency. 1 ETB is equivalent to 0.025 US$) and 1485.78 ETB per year per Adult Equivalent (AE), respectively. The rural poverty indices (i.e. headcount index, poverty gap, and squared poverty gap) calculated based on the consumption-based poverty line were 38.1, 8.84, and 3.1%, respectively. The binary logit analysis shows that having a bigger family had a significant and positive relationship with rural poverty. Conversely, larger landholding, plowing oxen, and livestock ownership as well as a higher amount of non/off-farm income have a significant and negative relationship with the poverty status of households. The study found that rural poverty is deep and complex in the study area calling for the design of location-specific and holistic poverty reduction strategies.

     

New Evidence on the Urbanization of Global Poverty

One‐quarter of the world's consumption poor live in urban areas, and that proportion has been rising over time. Over 1993–2002, the count of the “$1 a day” poor fell by 150 million in rural areas but rose by 50 million in urban areas. The poor have been urbanizing even more rapidly than the population as a whole. By fostering economic growth, urbanization helped reduce absolute poverty in the aggregate. There are marked regional differences: Latin America has the most urbanized poverty problem, East Asia has the least; there has been a “ruralization” of poverty in Eastern Europe and Central Asia; in marked contrast to other regions, Africa's urbanization process has not been associated with falling overall poverty.