大学生群体突发事件预警机制建构探索

大学生群体突发事件近年来在我们国家屡有发生，群体突发事件具有突然性、扩散性、破坏性、盲从性等特点。事件的发生既有自然灾害、社会政治及高校管理等外在原因，又和大学生本身的身心发展、心理状况有着密切关系。为维护校园安全、稳定，防止群体事件发生，高校应从组织管理、思想政治教育等方面建构有效的预警机制。     

整体环境和个体关联对群体性事件产生与演化的影响

对群体性事件产生与演化规律的研究已经成为社会管理的重要主题,而发展迅速的计算社会学方法为深入研究这一问题提供了新的途径。在已有研究的基础上,通过考察群体性事件的部分案例,可以发现个体对政府的信任程度、个体利益诉求渠道和社会普遍情绪这些内生性因素构成了群体性事件发生的整体环境要素,这些内生性因素的存在和组合达到一定水平,就构成了群体性事件发生的重要条件,而在这些宏观条件下,个体之间通过社会网络产生的关联和相互作用对群体事件的产生与演化也有重要影响。通过基于社会网络的计算社会学模型的模拟检验,本文对群体性事件的产生与演化进行了计算分析,讨论了整体环境和个体关联的各要素的作用,获得了部分内生性因素在其他条件既定时引发群体性事件的临界值。研究工作为进一步研究群体性事件的演化与形成机制提供了必要的模型基础。     

公共危机管理中的社会参与

公共危机对社会稳定构成最直接的威胁,应对这些公共危机事件不仅需要政府的力量,更需要全社会的参与。如果在公共危机发生时,不注重依靠社会的力量,就不能有效地防范和控制公共危机的发生,或是及时摆脱危机所带来的困境,那么,国家将失去社会发展目标实现的基础条件。本文从不同社会参与主体阐述对公共危机管理的作用,并对公共危机管理中的社会参与提出了一些个人见解。     

证券市场流动性与交易者群体变动的混沌研究

从证券市场微观结构角度,利用交易者群体可变的动态模型,分别在确定与不确定性金 融环境下,研究离散交易状态下市场的形成过程,并分析了交易者群体变动的混沌条件. 结果 表明,市场流动性的最低标准是买卖双方的交易者群体要有一个恰当的比例,市场达到稳定流 动性的时间与描述离开股市交易者的参数有关,通过交易制度对交易者群体参数的影响,可实 现对市场过程的控制,最后给出仿真计算.     

正视官员的信用危机

在近日发生的甘肃徽县群体铅中毒事件中，由于当地官员屡次瞒报事实、敷衍塞责，导致群众不相信政府，省里派去的专家甚至遭到群众的围攻和谩骂。百姓不相信官员并非个案，类似事件在其他地区也时有发生，且有愈演愈烈之势。显然．官员的公信力已经到了不得不正视的地步。     

2010年上半年网络舆情事件聚焦

2010上半年，本监测中心共收集整理51宗网络舆情事件。纵观这些舆情事件，它们在基本延续2009年舆情事件地域分布散、行业分布广、群体面涉及宽三大特点的基础上，又有了一些新的态势上的变化。与往年相比，诸如石首事件、瓮安事件等恶性群体事件减少，但民众在对待干群关系问题中的忍耐点却在降低。在新形势下，能否及时有效地化解层出不穷的舆情事件，已经成为保证社会平和稳定的重要因素。     

构建危机领导者压力管理全过程模式的思考

<正>近年来,各类危机事件频繁发生。危机事件具有破坏性、紧急性、复杂性和不确定性等特点,不仅对公共安全和社会稳定产生较大影响,也给危机事件中的相关人群造成强烈的心理冲击。作为危机事件的管理者,领导者在危机事件应对与处置过程中至关重要。危机事件发生后,他们不仅要亲临事件现场,目睹现场惨烈混乱的场景,接触各类受难人员,感受到人们强烈的情绪反应,还必须在有限的时间内快速做出关键性决策,制定具体的危机应对措施。因此,危机事件给领导者带来了强大的心理压力和巨大的考验。     

构建犯罪危机预警机制的设想

正社会的进步经济的发展是我们时代的整体特征。在这样特殊的历史时期下,一些固有的社会问题也逐渐凸显,社会不安定因素有增无减,这就需要我们在法制的基础上极大的加强其针对性。由于利益的差距和分配的不均衡,引发了各种危机,群体性事件、涉恐事件多发,这在一定程度上给社会和谐稳定带来了巨大压力,极大影响了社会稳定和谐社会的构建。这一系列不稳定因素是危机产生的根源,在     

试析会计电算化条件下的企业内部控制

作为企业来说，当其在实施了会计电算化后，会计核算和财务管理的环境与手工会计核算时相比发生了很大的变化，针对次站此种情况，企业在会计电算化环境下，就有必要建立起一整套适合电算化条件下的内部控制制度。     

对独立董事制度的思考

无论是"中航油"事件,还是"郑百文"事件等,大股东利用控股地位控制董事会,大搞关联交易,严重损害上市公司和中小股东利益事件的不断发生,使我国上市公司内部控制中存在的问题充分暴露出来。建立健全内部控制制度,已成为我国上市公司亟待解决的问题。实施和完善独立董事制度,是强化内部控制的重要措施。为此,我国上市公司应建立并完善独立董事制度。     

考虑信息搜索的环境污染群体性事件最优决策模型

坚决打好污染防治攻坚战是建设全面小康社会三大任务之一,环境污染群体性事件影响社会稳定和生态文明建设。在当今信息渠道多元化的自媒体时代下,群众能够通过信息搜索行为为决策获取信息。本文考虑了群众信息搜索行为,构建周边居民信息搜索的环境污染群体性事件最优决策模型,分析了不同条件下均衡策略选择,以及在各种地方政府补贴水平和暗箱操作程度下,周边居民的收益变化情况和策略选择差异。结果表明：当政府的暗箱操作程度较低时,群众的最优化策略为信息搜索后“污染轻微”则“抗议”,否则群众的最优化策略为直接抗议。当群众对项目污染程度为严重的先验概率较低且政府的暗箱操作程度比较高时,群众将选择不抗议策略。当周边居民的识别能力较差,群众将会选择策略信息搜索后“污染轻微”则“不抗议”,当暗箱操作程度足够大时,群众将会选择策略直接抗议。随着地方政府提供补贴水平的增加,群众的抗议强度减弱。了解群众的最优决策,有利于政府对环境群体性事件进行防范和应对,维护社会稳定。     

演化博弈视角下地方环境规制部门执法策略研究

通过建立环境规制中地方规制部门与排污企业的演化博弈模型,研究了博弈双方的决策演化规律,着重分析了地方规制部门环境执法的影响因素,并采用结构方程模型对理论分析结果进行了实证检验。研究结果表明:地方规制部门与排污企业的决策演化规律一共包含12种情形,对方策略既定条件下治污和执法策略的相对净支付决定了博弈主体策略选择。加大中央(上级)环保部门对地方规制部门的奖惩力度、提高环境规制标准,能够促使地方规制部门提高环境执法力度,而且加大奖惩力度的促进作用要大于提高环境规制标准。对环境执法产生负面影响的主要因素是地方政府干扰,其次是环境执法成本。污染削减技术创新既可能提高、也可能降低环境执法力度,实证结果表明其降低了环境执法力度。企业污染物产生量越大,地方规制部门越倾向提高环境执法力度。地方规制部门的环境执法特征是现有政治、经济和环保体制下多方互动的均衡结果。     

基于演化博弈的PPP项目绩效支付机制仿真与优化

PPP建设模式的关键核心之一是依绩效付费，绩效付费机制的科学合理性是PPP模式实施成功的保障。基于演化博弈理论及系统动力学研究PPP项目绩效支付机制，分析绩效监督机构与项目公司双方演化稳定均衡策略。研究发现存在三种演化稳定均衡策略，两种不稳定均衡策略。针对五种演化状态运用系统动力学对其进行仿真。仿真发现三种稳定均衡策略仿真结果与理论分析一致，两种不稳定均衡策略中的一种是不存在的均衡策略，另一种是呈规律波动的不稳定均衡策略。针对绩效支付机制中呈波动不稳定均衡策略，引入动态绩效支付进行优化，使其演化为稳定均衡策略。并理论验证了引入动态绩效支付使波动不稳定均衡策略变成稳定均衡策略的有效性。为政府有关部门设计及完善PPP项目绩效支付机制提供一定的参考。     

Effects of the implementation of information technology on employees' strain and job satisfaction: a context-dependent approach

The effects on staff of the implementation of new office information technology were investigated in ten companies in Vienna using a longitudinal design. Strain and satisfaction of 331 employees (implementation sample: n = 212; control sample: n = 119) were measured at five points in time over a period of 22 months. The study is based on a context-dependent approach. Personal factors (individual differences, external load) were assessed by questionnaires, and situational factors (job design, implementation content and implementation context) by objective measures. The impact of these factors on employees' strain responses was tested using structural equation modelling (SEM). While the implementation of new technology as such made no significant contribution to the explanation of strain variables, a reasonable model fit was achieved when implementation characteristics were taken into account. The data suggest that negative effects of implementations must be expected if (1) adaptational demands do not include the enhancement of employee qualifications, (2) character-based user interfaces are not replaced, and (3) employees have few or no opportunities to participate in the implementation process.     

风险集聚类邻避冲突事件随机演化情景分析

随着中国现代城市管理社区制的推行，由公共设施引发的社区冲突逐步凸显，其中，风险集聚类邻避设施成为引发社区冲突的主要诱因。邻避冲突事件演化过程的复杂性和随机扰动要求现有研究不应局限于确定环境下事件的分析，而应在更加真实的不确定环境下对冲突本身展开探讨。鉴于此，本文以演化博弈论为理论基础，引入高斯白噪声随机干扰项，构建风险集聚类邻避冲突事件中营建企业与周边民众两类群体的随机演化博弈模型，对比分析在无政府监管与政府监管情景下群体策略选择行为的随机演化过程，并利用Matlab进行数值仿真。研究发现：（1）无政府监管情景下，当营建企业采取强硬策略收益小于成本，且周边民众采取抗争策略成本大于收益时，（合作，妥协）是其演化均衡策略组合；营建企业与周边民众策略选择演化速度与初始策略选择概率密切相关。（2）政府监管情景下，当政府监管力度大于营建企业采取强硬策略收益与采取合作策略收益之差，且政府监管力度大于周边民众采取抗争策略收益与采取妥协策略收益之差时，（合作，妥协）是其唯一策略演化均衡点；政府监管力度对营建企业策略选择有显着影响，而对周边民众策略选择无显着影响。（3）随机因素对风险集聚类邻避冲突中营建企业与周边民众策略选择行为产生干扰，但随机模型演化趋势与确定性模型相一致。研究结果表明，政府完善监管机制，赋予公民参与权利，企业建立"柔性"冲突协调机制，民众合法表达利益诉求，推动风险集聚类邻避冲突治理框架的构建。     

Understanding Cumulative Risk Perception from Judgments and Choices: An Application to Flood Risks

Catastrophic events, such as floods, earthquakes, hurricanes, and tsunamis, are rare, yet the cumulative risk of each event occurring at least once over an extended time period can be substantial. In this work, we assess the perception of cumulative flood risks, how those perceptions affect the choice of insurance, and whether perceptions and choices are influenced by cumulative risk information. We find that participants' cumulative risk judgments are well represented by a bimodal distribution, with a group that severely underestimates the risk and a group that moderately overestimates it. Individuals who underestimate cumulative risks make more risk‐seeking choices compared to those who overestimate cumulative risks. Providing explicit cumulative risk information for relevant time periods, as opposed to annual probabilities, is an inexpensive and effective way to improve both the perception of cumulative risk and the choices people make to protect against that risk.     

Implementation of S-DBR in four manufacturing SMEs: a research case study

Production planning and control systems (PPCs) are tools that have a major effect on the performance of manufacturing companies. An inappropriate determination of the applicability of PPCs could seriously jeopardise the ability to achieve competitive priorities. This mistake can be expensive for any company, but proper implementation is particularly critical for small and medium enterprises (SMEs), which are characterised by limited access to financial resources. Simplified Drum–Buffer–Rope (S-DBR) is a PPC control approach that is characterised by minimum detail in the planning stage and a primary emphasis on the control of execution. Therefore, this approach is a suitable choice for the highly variable context of SMEs. This study aims to explore the practical issues related to S-DBR implementation in four Ecuadorian SMEs through case study research. The case analysis within this study first identifies the choices made in the implementation process design within the four companies according to process and product characteristics. We then conduct a cross-case analysis to explore the effects of the S-DBR implementation process designs on a group of performance measures. Our research findings provide new insights into the S-DBR implementation process in the context of SMEs, and the effects of this approach on performance measures.     

发展不平衡视角下地方监管沙盒竞争的演化博弈分析

目前，已有少数地方政府陆续推出监管沙盒促进本地经济发展。地方政府之间基于监管沙盒很可能展开新一轮博弈，欠发达地区在这一博弈中会最终出局吗？本文将地方政府区分为发达和欠发达两类群体，基于演化博弈模型对这一问题进行研究。结果表明，发达和欠发达两类群体监管沙盒的最终结局存在较高的依存性，任何一方均无法单方面决定本方监管沙盒的最终结局；欠发达群体的监管沙盒仍有一定的生存空间，在与发达群体博弈中并非一定会出局。     

Prioritization of bridges and tunnels in earthquake risk mitigation using multicriteria decision analysis: Application to Lisbon

This paper presents the development of a multicriteria value model enabling the prioritization of bridges and tunnels according to their structural vulnerability and strategic importance for the formulation and implementation of civil protection policies, both for retrofitting and emergency management, in face of seismic events. An interactive structuring process was developed with a group of key-players to carefully define the evaluation criteria and the MACBETH approach was extensively used (i) to facilitate the assessment from the group of the judgmental information necessary to build value functions and (ii) to establish relative weights for the criteria. The model was subsequently explored to prioritize the bridges and tunnels of a zone in Lisbon with high seismic hazard.     

A dynamic ERP critical failure factors modelling with FCM throughout project lifecycle phases

Implementation of enterprise resource planning systems (ERPs) is a complex and costly task which usually results in serious failures. Numerous factors affect these projects implementation due to their size, complexity and high chance of failure. Therefore, identifying these factors in ERP projects is a critical issue. The majority of previous publications have been conducted in identifying ERP critical success factors (CSFs) rather than critical failure factors (CFFs). In order to help practitioners, this article studies the CFFs in ERP implementation projects. The implications of interdependency among failure factors are also usually overlooked by project managers due to perceived complexity in modelling and analysing influential factors. With this in mind, we have proposed a fuzzy cognitive map (FCM)-based dynamic model of ERP failure factors through project lifecycle phases. The main advantage of FCM lies in them being capable of modelling complex phenomena based on the experts’ perceptions. This tool models uncertainty and related events, imitating human reasoning. Moreover, FCMs enable the developing of forecasting exercises through simulations. Practitioners would thus assess the joint influence of ERP implementation failure factors on project outcomes. The results make known to practitioners which problems will arise if the failure factors are not treated, and how these will impact on the outcomes of projects. Therefore, the proposed approach would help them to manage ERP implementation projects in a more effective and proactive way.