An alternative assessment of global climate policies

This paper analyzes alternative pricing schemes for funding investment in climate policies. This paper proposes a new policy scenario, explicitly disentangling the issue of burden sharing of financing new investments from the issue of taxation energy consumption and therefor emissions. We compare traditional allocation schemes with an optimal Ramsey pricing by applying demand elasticity values, derived from empirical estimations of household behavior for the 106 leading countries in the world, representing around 90% of total world energy consumption and carbon emissions in 2014. We calculate country-specific alternative taxation options: uniform, equitable and Ramsey pricing schemes, applied to households, assessing the related welfare effects. Our results show that the optimal pricing scheme, for a given investment need, can improve world welfare at the expenses of equitable considerations. In addition, the aggregate societal benefit outweighs the losses associated with specific group of countries, paving the way for easier political agreement, using compensation schemes to redistribute the proceeds.     

Promoting a higher retirement age: A prospect‐theoretical approach

Demographic ageing and the necessity of raising the retirement age is one of the most frequently debated topics among European welfare policy experts. This study used prospect theory as developed in behavioural economics to explain public attitudes towards pension reforms. It argues that, in line with prospect theory, negative incentives are more useful in changing people's attitudes in favour of a higher statutory retirement age than are positive incentives. Therefore, in the case of increasing life expectancy, defined‐contribution schemes that apply actuarial formulae linking the level of starting monthly pension benefits to life expectancy are more useful in promoting a higher retirement age than conventional defined‐benefit schemes, which typically do not forge an automatic connection between longevity and starting pensions. The implications of prospect theory for attitudes towards pension reforms were tested using Eurobarometer survey data collected in 2004 and 2009 in the Czech Republic, Poland and Slovakia.     

The effects on intra‐generational inequality of introducing a funded pension scheme: A microsimulation analysis for Estonia

This article uses a single male cohort microsimulation model to analyse the intra‐generational and distributional effects of a shift in Estonia from a defined benefit pay‐as‐you‐go (PAYG) pension system to a multi‐pillared system with a PAYG scheme with contribution‐based insurance components and a funded pension scheme. We contribute to the literature on microsimulation by showing how introducing contribution‐based insurance components and compulsory defined contribution (DC) schemes can increase pension inequality. Our results show that in the case of a high level of inequality in labour earnings and high long‐term unemployment rates, such as in Estonia, the introduction of a very strong link between contributions and future benefits leads to considerably higher inequality in pension incomes as measured by the Gini coefficient. Simulation results for Estonia suggest that inequality in old‐age pension incomes more than doubles when the reforms mature. In contrast, the inequality in replacement rates decreases.     

When Do Benevolent Capitalists Change Their Mind? Explaining the Retrenchment of Defined‐benefit Pensions in Britain

This paper explores the politics of welfare retrenchment, but differs from much of the current literature in this area by focusing not on the decisions of politicians but those of private sector employers. In countries with a large private welfare sector, employers are major social policy players with a significant influence on the generosity of welfare provision, but the rationale behind their actions is not well understood. To explore these issues, a case study is used of the recent fundamental change in UK occupational pension provision, involving a rapid shift from defined‐benefit to defined‐contribution pensions. The paper shows by means of a micro‐simulation of the relative performance of defined‐benefit, defined‐contribution and state pensions that this shift represents a significant retrenchment. It suggests, using historical material, interview data and insights from behavioural economics, that existing explanations for this change, while valuable, have important gaps because they are based on too narrow a conceptualization of business motives. In this regard, the paper highlights the importance of herd behaviour.     

Social insurance schemes in the Gulf countries

Being economically well established, the member countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council have unique social insurance schemes. Based on the defined benefit principle, they have succeeded in creating large reserves, which are managed and invested independently by the social insurance institutions. However, the schemes are facing a continuous escalation in their costs, due to their generosity rather than the population ageing observed in industrialized countries. This trend may well support the argument that the schemes in the region can cope with conventional reforms like increasing contribution rates, raising retirement age and restricting early retirement, rather than switching to a defined contribution system.     

The development and Reform of Social Security Pensions:The Approach of the International Labour Office

The reform and the development of pension schemes are affected by the values society places on the provision of income security in old age and the resources it is prepared to allocate for the purpose. This paper examines those values and the issues arising from them. The objective is to propose reforms which will simultaneously provide full coverage with good governance, prevent poverty in old age, and result in indexed, guaranteed and reliable pensions for those onaverage incomes, all with minimum economic distortion or adverse economic effects. The question of the most appropriate design has to be weighed against these other factors, which will determine not only what is feasible and what is not, but also where the most desirable balance lies. The optimum structure would seem to involve a mix of defined benefit and defined contribution schemes.     

Pension financialization and collective risk sharing in Canada and Finland

This article contributes to the debate concerning pension financialization and how countries are adapting their pension systems to respond to demographic ageing. We do so by examining the statutory pension systems of Canada and Finland, which diverge interestingly from current international trends. The Canadian and Finnish public pension schemes reflect two tendencies often associated with pension financialization: an increasing reliance on financial markets and an investment policy with a diversified asset allocation. However, unlike in many other countries, this has not resulted in heightened individual risks in old-age income security caused by a shift from defined benefit to defined contribution pensions – an otherwise common trend internationally.     

The ABCs of nonfinancial defined contribution (NDC) schemes

Nonfinancial defined contribution (NDC) pension schemes have been successfully implemented since the mid‐1990s in a number of European countries such as Italy, Latvia, Norway, Poland and Sweden. The NDC approach features the lifelong contribution–benefit link of a financial defined contribution (FDC) personal account scheme, but is based on the pay‐as‐you‐go (PAYG) format. At its start out, the PAYG commitments of the preceding defined benefit (DB) system are converted into individual personal accounts, allowing for a smooth transition from the DB to the DC format, while avoiding the very high transition costs inherent in a move from a traditional PAYG DB scheme to a fully funded FDC scheme. The NDC approach implemented by the rule book is able to manage the economic and demographic risks inherent to a pension scheme and, by design, creates financial sustainability. As in any pension scheme, the linchpin between financial stability and adequacy is the retirement age; in the NDC approach the individual retirement age above the minimum age is by design self‐selected and by incentives should increase the effective retirement age in line with population ageing. As a systemic reform approach NDC has become a strong competitor to piecemeal parametric reforms of traditional nonfinancial DB (NDB) schemes. While frequent, these reforms are far from transparent and usually too timid and too late to create financial sustainability while providing adequate pensions for the average contributor. This article offers a largely non‐technical introduction to NDC schemes, their basic elements and advantages over NDB schemes, the key technical frontiers of the approach, and the experiences of NDC countries.     

Assessing the pension reform potential of a notional defined contribution pillar

Abstract As some of the limitations of the traditional pay‐as‐you‐go defined benefit public pension model have become more evident in recent years, pension experts have begun searching for alternative models. The notional defined contribution model, also financed on a pay‐as‐you‐go basis, has emerged as one of the major new approaches. Drawing on evidence from schemes in six countries (Sweden, Italy, Poland, Latvia, Kyrgystan and Mongolia), this article aims to describe the notional defined contribution model and to review its strengths and limitations relative to the major alternatives, the pay‐as‐you‐go defined benefit model and the funded defined contribution model. A four‐pillar pension model is proposed.     

A comparative analysis of pension reforms and challenges in Ghana and Nigeria

Ghana and Nigeria recently joined a number of countries that have incorporated fully‐funded defined contribution pension programmes into their national social security arrangements. Contemporary analyses of pension reforms, however, continue to focus on middle‐income countries in Latin America and Central and Eastern Europe, as well as on Member States of the Organisation for Economic Co‐operation and Development, thereby marginalizing recent pension policy reforms in sub‐Saharan African countries. This article examines the complete and partial shifts to defined contribution pension programmes in Nigeria and Ghana respectively, and points to a number of contextual and contingency factors that challenge the use of defined contribution schemes as a means to address problems of benefit adequacy in the sub‐Saharan African context.     

Has the Nordic Welfare Model Been Transformed?

The Nordic welfare model is undergoing a fundamental transformation. Using Denmark we show how a universal welfare state model is gradually being transformed into an emergent multi‐tiered welfare state. Whereas the Danish pension system's having become multi‐tiered in the 1990s, with private schemes – collective and individual – supplementing public schemes is well documented, scant attention has focused on more recent developments in other areas of the welfare state. This article shows how the multi‐tiered welfare state spread in the 2000s to policies for families, the unemployed and the sick. Although Denmark still offers universal coverage in core welfare state areas, the increased use of occupational and fiscal welfare as well as changes in public schemes has gradually transformed the nation into a multi‐tiered welfare state that is more dualistic and individualistic, with participation in the labour market becoming still more important for entitlement to benefits. These profound changes have taken place in such a way that although core characteristics are still in place, new structures and understandings of the welfare state are also developing. Thus classical typologies need revision, so that they include more focus on this combination of universality and institutional attachment to the labour market. Moreover, measures of what welfare comprises should include not only public but also private elements.     

Are European social safety nets tight enough? Coverage and adequacy of Minimum Income schemes in 14 EU countries

Figari F, Matsaganis M, Sutherland H. Are European social safety nets tight enough? Coverage and adequacy of Minimum Income schemes in 14 EU countries This study explored and compared the effectiveness of Minimum Income (MI) schemes for persons of working age in the European Union (EU). Using the European microsimulation model EUROMOD, we estimated indicators of coverage and adequacy of MI schemes in 14 EU countries. In terms of coverage, we found that in several countries, some individuals are ineligible for MI even when they fall below a poverty line set at 40 per cent of median income. With respect to adequacy, we show that in certain countries, a large fraction of those entitled to MI remain at very low levels of income even when MI benefit is added. Overall, our findings suggest that MI schemes in Europe remain divergent, and that their clustering may be more complex than has hitherto been allowed for. Key Practitioner Message: ?The ability of European welfare states to fight poverty is a key policy question, especially at times of crisis;?Adequacy and coverage of Minimum Income schemes are crucial aspects of the answer;?Microsimulation allows us to separate the effectiveness of MI schemes ‘by design’, from issues of benefit administration, targeting errors and so forth.     

The Political Economy of Social Insurance: Towards a Fiscal‐Centred Framework

This article draws attention to social insurance (SI) as a revenue raising institution, and explores the potential merits of drawing on new fiscal sociology for studying the development of SI systems. This is done by revisiting previous research conducted in Germany, the USA, Finland and Israel and by offering a new reading of their findings. The reviewed cases support two interlocking claims drawn from new fiscal sociology to the study of SI. The first is that state actors may perceive SI as an extraction instrument and employ it to advance fiscal and/or economic interests other than covering the costs of SI schemes. The second is that the design and management of contribution policies for such purposes may have substantial ramifications for the development of SI schemes. In addition, while current understandings tend to associate fiscal concerns with welfare state retrenchment, this article shows that they can also play a major role in driving welfare state expansion.     

Partisanship,continuity, and change: Politics in Finnish unemployment benefit reforms 1985–2016

The apparent decline of partisan effects on social policies since the 1980s has encouraged the development of theories that challenge the traditional partisan politics theory. Although the new politics approach pointed to institutional path-dependence and to the unpopularity of radical retrenchment, recent research has highlighted shifts in electoral landscapes, differences in party systems and institutional contexts, and changing party-voter linkages. This in-depth case study contributes to debates on partisan effects by focusing on Finland, whose dualistic unemployment benefit system and institutional and political conditions provide an interesting case to analyse changing partisan effects. The aim is to explain, through qualitative policy analysis, why government partisanship has not had a significant effect on unemployment benefit levels since 1985. The explanations are different for earnings-related and flat-rate benefits. For the former, retrenchment efforts have seen a distinct partisan divide, but trade unions have thwarted most cutbacks; thus, although partisanship has not mattered much for policy outcomes, power resources have remained important as inhibitor of cuts. For the latter, parties that in the late 1980s still had differing priorities have since converged on policies emphasizing activation and work incentives. Universal flat-rate benefits have lacked political support and have been left to stagnate. The study suggests that one single theory is not sufficient to explain developments even in one single welfare policy—there are too many aspects to cover—not to speak of the entire welfare state consisting of an array of different schemes.     

Failing the Transition from Welfare to Work: Women Chronically Disconnected from Employment and Cash Welfare*

Objectives. Although employment among welfare mothers increased substantially following the 1996 welfare reform, some former welfare recipients failed to find stable employment. We review the extent to which low‐income mothers are without work and cash welfare for long periods of time and seek to understand the correlates of becoming chronically disconnected. Methods. We analyze data from a 1997–2003 panel study of single mothers who received cash welfare in an urban county in Michigan in February 1997. We develop a new measure of the extent to which former recipients are “chronically disconnected” from both employment and cash welfare and estimate regression models of the correlates of this economic outcome. Results. About 9 percent of respondents became chronically disconnected, defined as being without employment and cash welfare during at least one‐quarter of the months during the 79‐month study period. Important correlates of becoming chronically disconnected include having a physical limitation, having a learning disability, using illegal drugs or meeting the diagnostic screening criteria for alcohol dependence, and having no car or driver license. The chronically disconnected are more likely to have lost a job than to have lost welfare benefits and are more economically disadvantaged than those with regular sources of economic support. Conclusions. To reduce the number of women who fail to make a successful transition from welfare to work, more attention should be given to programs and policies that attempt to reconnect disconnected women to regular sources of economic support.     

Assessing gender inequality in the Turkish pension system

Abstract   Since the 1990s, the welfare regime in Turkey has become more market-oriented. The introduction of the Individual Pension System (IPS), a privately managed defined contribution scheme, is part of this process. This paper uses an autoregressive stochastic model in order to show the total effect of specific disadvantages, such as a shorter working life, less earnings, longer life expectancy, real wage growth, administrative cost and risk aversion, on the retirement benefits of women in Turkey. Using an actuarial model, the article aims to contribute to the literature by investigating the gender gap in the Turkish defined contribution scheme.     

Macroeconomic stabilization of primary commodities price cycles in developing economies

This paper proposes a strategy for stabilizing macroeconomic policy to address jointly the effects of changes in the prices of food, minerals and energy (oil). Our approach differs from the general literature, which analyzes the effects of a commodity boom or bust and therefore the solutions in terms of economic policy separately, that is, by type of commodity. The stabilization strategy that we propose considers a key fact affecting many open economies, namely, that they not only are affected by increases or decreases in commodity prices, but also benefit from them. Consequently, we use a structural model for an open economy with restricted households to show that welfare could be improved with a fiscal rule incorporating transfers to stabilize household consumption. This strategy noticeably dominates an aggressive monetary policy focused only on stabilizing inflation and a fiscal policy that has an excessive bias toward saving income from exports.     

Using Turn Taking to Mitigate Coordination and Conflict Problems in the Repeated Battle of the Sexes Game

The Battle of the Sexes game, which captures both coordination and conflict problems, has been applied to a wide range of situations. We show that, by reducing distributional conflict and enhancing coordination, (eventual) turn taking supported by a “turn taking with independent randomizations” strategy allows players to engage in intertemporal sharing of the gain from cooperation. Using this insight, we decompose the benefit from turn taking into conflict-mitigating and coordination-enhancing components. Our analysis suggests that an equilibrium measure of the “degree of intertemporal conflict” provides an intuitive way to understand the sources of welfare gain from turn taking in the repeated Battle of the Sexes game. We find that when this equilibrium measure is lower, players behave less aggressively and the welfare gain from turn taking is higher.      

The provision of complementary pensions: Objectives, forms and constraints

In all former centrally planned economies, the question of how to restructure old-age income provisions and open the way to non-governmental, complementary pension schemes is being posed. This paper deals with four main areas of that problem. First, the various objectives of public and complementary schemes are discussed. The paper argues that without a broad consensus among the major interested parties there is a considerable danger that envisaged objectives will not be achieved. The second section reviews the main forms of complementary pension scheme and discusses the central characteristics of occupational and personal schemes. The third section addresses two critical policy areas: the kind of regulations that may be required in order to enforce the social and economic objectives; and the likely social and economic implications. On the basis of experience in OECD countries and the specific situation in countries in transition, the final section offers some tentative conclusions for Czechoslovakia, the main one being that during the initial phase of economic transition preference should be given to a simple defined contribution plan. Such a complementary scheme would be consistent with the lack of developed financial markets and the privatization plan of the government and require neither a great number of highly trained accountants and actuaries nor the comprehensive set of regulations a defined benefit plan is likely to dictate.     

Welfare Chauvinism in Populist Radical Right Platforms: The Role of Redistributive Justice Principles

Welfare chauvinism has become an important element in the agenda of the populist radical right. This article proposes a novel argument to explain variation in the strength of welfare chauvinist appeals across social policy programmes. It theorizes that the redistributive justice principles (equity, equality, and need) that underpin a social programme matter. Equality‐ and need‐based programmes are more likely to contradict a nativist worldview in principle or practice, whereas equity‐based schemes are less vulnerable to welfare chauvinistic appeals. As a consequence, welfare chauvinism should be targeted at social policies that provide universal or means‐tested benefits. Insurance‐based systems are more likely to be immune. This argument is tested through a qualitative content analysis of populist radical right election manifestos in four West European democracies. The results show that insurance‐based systems (pensions, unemployment) are less likely to attract welfare chauvinism, whereas universal healthcare and means‐tested social assistance programmes are more prone to draw nativist appeals. Universal family allowances, however, are less likely to attract welfare chauvinism than predicted by the theory.