Hidden Assumptions in the Dutch Book Argument

Probabilistic theories of rationality claim that degrees of belief have to satisfy the probability axioms in order to be rational. A standard argument to support this claim is the Dutch Book argument. This paper tries to show that, in spite of its popularity, the Dutch Book argument does not provide a foundation for normative theories of rationality. After a presentation of the argument and some of its criticisms a problem is pointed out: the Dutch Book argument applies only to situations with a specific formal structure. Several attempts to justify the argument for more general situations are considered and rejected. The only way to remedy the shortcoming, it is argued, seems to be the acceptance of a far-reaching and highly implausible empirical hypothesis.     

Controlling Access to Sick Leave Programmes: Practices of Physicians in the Netherlands

Policymakers in industrialized countries attempt to contain the costs of sick leave and disability schemes by limiting access to include medically proven cases only. However, a person's incapacity to work cannot be fully deduced by referring to his or her medical condition. It is the question whether using more restrictive eligibility criteria that focus on medical evidence actually reduces the number of benefit recipients and makes access to employee benefit arrangements fairer. This ethnographic study shows that physicians working in Dutch illness certification practices use alternative methods to restrict access to sick leave programmes. Doctors do not control their clients in a restrictive sense of the word. Rather, they exercise control over their clients by inciting them to internalize norms about being active and responsible. While we do not claim that this is good per se, we do contend that this control style may have some advantages over and above more restrictive control mechanisms. Elaborating on policy that supports this alternative notion of control, therefore, seems worthwhile.     

Dutch Women are Liberated, Migrant Women are a Problem: The Evolution of Policy Frames on Gender and Migration in the Netherlands, 1995–2005

Over the past decade, there has been a major shift in Dutch gender equality policy to an almost exclusive focus on migrant women. Simultaneously, the focus of ‘minority policies’ has shifted more and more towards gender relations. The appearance of migrant women at the top of the political agenda is remarkable. In this article we examine how this construction of migrant women as a political problem has come about, and consider its implications. As we argue, the dominant policy frames of emancipation and individual responsibility are reinforcing a dichotomy between the autochthonous ‘us’ and the allochthonous ‘them’. As the problem is increasingly defined as a cultural one, it is implicitly stated that there is no problem with the dominant culture and society. Barriers for participation are exclusively located in the migrant (Muslim) culture. In this view, Muslim migrants should first change their culture before they can fully integrate in Dutch society.     

Disability insurance risks: The Argentinian case

This article analyses the risk of disability facing workers who contribute to the Argentinian Integrated Social Security System (Sistema Integrado Previsional Argentino— SIPA). Using administrative records as our source of data for the period 2000‐2006, the results indicate that 1.46 workers per 1,000 became disabled annually during that period. The risk of disability rates were higher for men than for women, but increased with age for both sexes. The risk of disability rates have also been broken down by pathology and social security scheme, taking the effects of age and sex into account. To conclude, international comparisons are presented.     

The decline of substitute pathways into retirement: Empirical evidence from the Dutch health care sector

Early retirement schemes and disability insurance in the Netherlands have undergone several reforms in recent decades. The reforms have increased incentives for older workers to continue working and have decreased the roles of “substitute pathways” into retirement. This article gives an overview of the reforms and, using administrative data for workers in the health care sector, tests a number of hypotheses about the labour market participation of older workers. The results offer two main findings: i) that the Dutch reforms have indeed been effective, as the labour force participation rate of older workers has increased; and ii) the concept of “substitute pathways” has become less relevant as the use of disability insurance has been closed off as an exit route to early retirement. Nevertheless, caution is required before generalizing the implications of these Dutch findings to other OECD countries.     

The Costs of Disability and the Incidence of Poverty

Both disability and poverty have been the subject of extensive research, although relatively few Australian studies have examined the relationship between them. Most poverty studies make no allowance for the higher needs (and costs) associated with disability, while few disability studies have focused on poverty among the disabled. Yet disability often leads to greater need and this will increase the risk of poverty. This paper uses data from the 1998–99 Household Expenditure Survey to estimate the costs of disability using a ‘standard of living’ approach and uses these estimates to compare poverty rates among those with and without disability. The results imply that where there is an adult in the household with a disability, poverty rates are higher even before allowing for the extra costs of disability. After account is taken of the costs of disability, estimated poverty rates rise substantially where there is a disability present. Taking account of costs that vary with the severity of the restriction associated with the disability is also shown to make a large difference to comparisons derived from conventional poverty research.     

Events that Trigger Poverty Entries and Exits*

Objective. This article examines how events—such as changes in household composition, employment status, disability status, and economic conditions—affect poverty entries and exits. We also examine whether the role these events play in poverty transitions differs in the pre‐ and post‐welfare‐reform periods. Methods. The analysis uses discrete‐time multivariate hazard models along with monthly, longitudinal data from the 1988, 1990, and 1996 panels of the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP). Results. Analyses show that many events are related to the likelihood of entering and exiting poverty. Of the trigger events examined, individuals living in households that experience a loss or gain of employment are the most likely to enter and exit poverty. We also find that changes in employment are more important in the 1996 to 1999 time period—after welfare reform—than in the 1988 to 1992 time period—prior to welfare reform. Finally, changes in household composition, disability status, and educational attainment are found to play a role in throwing people into poverty and helping them exit from poverty in both time periods. Conclusions. There is no single path into or out of poverty, suggesting that multiple policies can be considered to help alleviate poverty.     

Projected spending on pensions in Spain: A viability analysis

The viability of pay-as-you-go retirement pension schemes, such as that of Spain, remains a subject of ongoing debate. In this article we shall attempt to demonstrate that demography is the key variable that determines a system's viability. Analysis of several predictive studies conducted in the country shows that many of their predictions have been erroneous and their findings overpessimistic. This is because their forecasts were based on projections for the resident population, and overlooked the magnitude of the recent phenomenon of immigration. If the current influx of migrants continues, the problem of viability can be resolved.     

Pictures and silences: memories of sexual abuse of disabled people

The article de–individualises the debate about sexual abuse of disabled people, especially women, by showing that both the sexual and asexual identity of impaired persons are invariably fashioned within the institutional arrangement of domination and subjugation. It shows that if disabled persons are seen as asexual or if they are sexualised, they cannot escape sexual violence, which is not an aberration, but is intrinsic to the social construction of disability. The article includes personal testimonies of women with different disabilities from Slovenia, who were abused either at home or in public care and shows some responses of the professionals and caregivers who minimise the importance of abuse. It claims that ignoring the memories of sexual abuse is part of a subtle and unintentional discrimination, which reflects a continuity of prejudices and hatred toward disabled children and adults in the private realm as well as in public care. People from ethnic minorities, such as Roma, are still today more often diagnosed as mentally disabled, which shows that the disability diagnosis has to be seen as part of cultural responses towards an economically and socially marginalised group. The author uses different perspectives: historical, social work theories, cultural studies and feminist analysis.     

Unemployment, Age, Gender and Regional Suicide in England and Wales 1974-90: A Harbinger of Increased Suicide for the 1990s?

Correspondence to Prof. Colin Pritchard, Department of Social Work Studies, University of Southampton, Highfield, Southampton SO9 SNH. Summary The Department of Health's Health of the Nation aims at a substantialreduction in suicide; this is a ‘vote of confidence’in the effectiveness of the community psychiatric and healthservices. However, it will be shown that a number of socioeconomicchanges have occurred which may lead to increased suicide; forexample British male suicide rose in the 1980s, significantlyassociated with unemployment. Though female suicide fell substantiallyover the period, across the regions suicide rates for both menand women were worse amongst the ‘work age’ bands,16–44 years, than the older groups. In respect to therelatively poorer rates amongst younger women, this may be linkedto unemployment and their unfulfilled job expectations. If thesuicide targets are not met, it is feared that the ‘failure’will laid at the door of the community and health services.     

Caregiving and our inner elder: insights from a spiritual master

Dutch Priest Henri Nouwen, who died in 1996, has a large following of devoted readers. Though not formally a gerontologist, he wrote one small book Aging: the Fulfillment of Life, full of remarkable insights into the meaning of growing old. Two approaches to caring for older people have special resonance. First, a person must appropriate his or her own aging, coming to grips with one's aging self. Secondly, one must allow the old person to enter into one's own life. Incorporating these two principles into service of elders gives it a spiritual value that goes beyond merely routine contact.     

Choosing Whether to Buy or Make: The Contracting Out of Employment Reintegration Services by Dutch Municipalities

The Western welfare states are under reform. An important part of these reforms is the introduction of market type mechanisms for the deliverance of public services. Over the years, many countries have chosen to contract out employment reintegration services. The underlying notion of contracting out is the belief that the introduction of market elements in the production of public services increases effectiveness and efficiency. In addition to the cost benefit argument for contracting out public services, ideology is often brought forward as an important factor explaining why public services are provided in‐house. In this article, we analyze to what extent cost benefit arguments and ideology affect the make or buy decision of Dutch municipalities. The Dutch employment reintegration market poses an interesting case in point since Dutch municipalities have the option to either provide employment reintegration services themselves or to buy services on the market. Our analysis shows that cost benefit arguments do not play a role in the make or buy decision of Dutch municipalities. Ideology, however, does. Municipalities that adhere to the principles of New Public Management more often opt to buy employment reintegration services on the market. Also the outcomes of municipal elections have been found to be of importance – left‐wing municipalities more often choose in‐house service provision.     

ISSUES AFFECTING WOMEN'S RETIREMENT PLANNING

There has been a steep rise over the past 20 years in the proportion of women who enter the workforce, with a concomitant increase in the number of women who will be retiring in the next 20 years. In the past, the majority of women over 60 have either been supported by their husbands superannuation benefits, or have been dependent on a government pension. This situation is unlikely to continue; it is becoming increasingly essential for women to make provision for their own post-retirement income. However available evidence suggests that women are not effectively planning for their retirement and are increasingly at risk of facing a life of poverty in their old age. This research project examines some of the factors that impact on women's capacity to effectively plan their retirement. In particular, the research explores the attitudes of women to retirement planning, access to information, and external impediments particularly labour market conditions.     

Female Workers on Long-term Sickness Benefit in the Republic of Ireland: The Relevance of their Relationship with the Labour Market

This article investigates the extent to which the entry of female workers into long-term receipt of sickness benefit is related not only to their health status but also to the experience of women in the labour market. It is argued that specific categories of female workers–women with children, women who enter sickness benefit from maternity or unemployment benefit or who live in areas of high female unemployment–have an incentive to remain on sickness benefit long-term. This is supported by a logistic regression analysis on a random sample (n D1142) of individual social security sickness benefit claimants in the Republic of Ireland. The results can be used to understand how married, compared to single, women can come to be overrepresented among those on long-term sickness benefit.     

Patients with Minor Mental Disorders Leading to Sickness Absence: A Feasibility Study for Social Workers' Participation in a Treatment Programme

Minor mental disorders are common among patients who visit theirgeneral practitioner. In the Netherlands, they are associatedwith high costs due to absenteeism, disability benefits andmedical consumption (consumption of drugs as well as expenditureof medical staff’s time). In the Netherlands, a protocolwas developed for the treatment of minor mental disorders, basedon the principles of brief cognitive behaviour therapy. Thecost-effectiveness of this protocol was tested in a group ofpatients whose minor mental disorders had lead to sickness absence.The protocol was completed by Dutch social workers, one of whosecore tasks normally is to provide psychosocial care. The mainaims of the protocol are for the patient to regain functionalityand to prevent long-term disability. The protocol emphasizespatients’ own responsibility and active role in the recoveryprocess, includes homework assignments and stresses the importanceof early work resumption. This article focuses on a discussionof the feasibility of this treatment for minor mental disorders.The evidence for or against the protocol’s cost-effectivenesswill be discussed in future papers. The results show that patients,social workers and general practitioners were motivated to participateand that the protocol was well received by all three groups.If the treatment also proves to be cost-effective, it wouldappear to be a promising intervention for a frequently encounteredproblem in primary care.     

Mindful and Masculine: Freeing Women Leaders From the Constraints of Gender Roles

Despite gains in women's status, successful leaders are more likely to be men than women. The styles that successful leaders set tend to be masculine. Female leaders face a paradox: If they emulate a masculine leadership style, their male subordinates will dislike them. If they adopt a stereotypically warmand nurturing feminine style, they will be liked, but not respected. Two experiments found that female leaders who are mindful can escape this paradox. In an experiment, college-aged men perceived a woman who was masculine and mindful to be a better leader than a woman who was masculine and mindless. A second experiment replicated that result with middle-aged businessmen.     

Same‐Sex Marriage and Negative Externalities*

Objectives. Conventional theory regarding externalities and personal choices implies that in the absence of negative externalities, there is no economic rationale for government to regulate or ban those choices. We evaluate whether legally recognizing (or prohibiting) same‐sex marriage has any adverse impact on societal outcomes specifically related to “traditional family values.” Methods. Using data from 1990 to 2004 in the U.S. states, with statistical controls appropriate for the particular model, and with fixed effects, we test the claim of the Family Research Council that same‐sex marriage will have negative impacts on marriage, divorce, abortion rates, the proportion of children born to single women, and the percent of children in female‐headed households. Results. We find no statistically significant adverse effect from allowing gay marriage. Bans on gay marriage, when they are not overturned, appear to be associated with a lower abortion rate and a lower percentage of children in female‐headed households. However, allowing gay marriage also shows the same or stronger associations. Conclusions. The argument that same‐sex marriage poses a negative externality on society cannot be rationally held. Although many might believe that this conclusion is so obvious that it does not warrant testing, many politicians use this argument as a fact‐based rationale to legitimize bans on same‐sex marriage.     

Coordination in Urban Settings

In recent years a number of programmes have been developed which focus on the urban community rather than the individual as the beneficiary of welfare allocations. Working on the assumption that different views of social malaise will generate different programme types, this paper takes an analytical framework developed by Roland Warren and applies it to an Australian situation. The problem at stake is one of creating conditions in which a newly formed organization can enter an urban situation and begin to coordinate local activity. This paper discusses the difficulty a new organization has in breaking into the inter-organizational field, the difficulty of achieving legitimacy, and means by which its activities may be prevented, blunted and repelled. These are illustrated with examples in metropolitan Adelaide.     

残疾女性的生存境遇及其相关对策思考——以河南省为例

残疾女性是社会生活中亟需关注的弱势群体。残疾和女性的二重身份使得她们在社会生活中面临诸多困境。为此，需要我们积极进行对策思考，以便能帮助残疾女性尽快走出生存困境，求得更好的发展。     

Human Capital Attainment and Gender Empowerment: The Kerala Paradox*

Objectives. The State of Kerala in southwestern India shows the highest gender development index in the country. Despite having the highest literacy rate and educational achievements of women, the suicide rate among females is very high, and domestic violence committed against women is increasing every year in Kerala. This article attempts to analyze the demographic, social, and cultural changes that are occurring in order to understand this apparent paradox of high human capital attainment and high violence and suicides experienced by women in Kerala. Methods. The study uses data from the Census of India (1991, 2001) , National Crime Records Bureau (1998–2000), and Reproductive and Child Health ( District Level House Hold Survey—2001 ) to analyze trends in crime, violence, and suicide rates, and demographic profiles of the different districts in Kerala. Results. High educational attainment has fostered new aspirations and attitudes among women in Kerala. Yet, societal and cultural norms still dictate that women should be subservient to men both at home and in the labor market. This imbalance often contributes to family violence and suicides in Kerala. Thus, beneath the veil of development lie some disturbing social, cultural, and economic issues that may be contributing to high rates of suicide and family violence in Kerala. Conclusions. This study demonstrates that high educational attainment alone will not promote gender empowerment unless the social and cultural fabric of a country or state ensures equality of women in all areas of life.