An (s,k, S) fluid inventory model with exponential leadtimes and order cancellations

We consider a stochastic fluid inventory model based on a (s, k, S) policy. The content level W = {W(t): t ≥ 0} increases or decreases according to a fluid-flow rate modulated by an n-state continuous time Markov chain (CTMC). W starts at W(0) = S; whenever W(t) drops to level s, an order is placed to take the inventory back to level S, which the supplier will carry out after an exponential leadtime. However, if during the leadtime the content level reaches k, the order is suppressed. We obtain explicit formulas for the expected discounted costs. The derivations are based on the optional sampling theorem (OST) to the multidimensional martingale and on fluid flow techniques.     

The sampling distribution of the W estimator of the number of valid signatures on a petition

Abstract

A new non linear estimator, W, for the number of valid, unique signatures on a petition has been shown better, for the cases enumerated and with certain restrictions, than a popular Goodman-type statistic, G. This article extends those results with relaxed conditions by developing the exact probability mass function and mean of W and a close approximation of the variance (Var(W)). If the proportion of valid signatures among unique and duplicated signatures is the same, then Var(W) is approximately a function of the means and variances of the two sample statistics. Using the delta method, we estimate Var(W), with the resulting approximation shown to be good, even when the condition of equal proportions does not hold. We compare W to G and establish which estimator is preferred for different intervals of the design parameters. Data from a Washington State petition illustrate the findings.     

Some novel results on pairwise quasi-asymptotical independence with applications to risk theory

In this article we obtain some novel results on pairwise quasi-asymptotically independent (pQAI) random variables. Concretely speaking, let X₁, …, X_n be n real-valued pQAI random variables, and W₁, …, W_n be another n non negative and arbitrarily dependent random variables, but independent of X₁, …, X_n. Under some mild conditions, we prove that W₁X₁, …, W_nX_n are still pQAI as well. Our result is in a general setting whether the primary random variables X₁, …, X_n are heavy-tailed or not. Finally, a special case of above result is applied to risk theory for investigating the finite-time ruin probability for a discrete-time risk model with a wide type of dependence structure.     

A geometric process warranty model using a combination policy

This paper proposes a geometric process warranty model. Assume that a combination policy (W, T) is applied after selling a product, so that a free warranty is offered in [0, W), followed by a pro-rata warranty in [W, T). Assume further the successive operating times (repair times) of the product form a decreasing (increasing) geometric process. The average cost rate of the product to the manufacturer and a consumer can be derived respectively. For exponential distribution case, the explicit formulas of the average cost rate are obtained, and an finite algorithm for determination of an optimal combination policy is suggested.     

Analysis of ordered categorical data with score averaging: with applications to case-control genetic associations

The trend test is often used for the analysis of 2×K ordered categorical data, in which K pre-specified increasing scores are used. There have been discussions on how to assign these scores and the impact of the outcomes on different scores. The scores are often assigned based on the data-generating model. When this model is unknown, using the trend test is not robust. We discuss the weighted average of a trend test over all scientifically plausible choices of scores or models. This approach is more computationally efficient than a commonly used robust test MAX when K is large. Our discussion is for any ordered 2×K table, but simulation and applications to real data are focused on case-control genetic association studies. Although there is no single test optimal for all choices of scores, our numerical results show that some score averaging tests can achieve the performance of MAX.     

Some characterizations of discrete distributions based on weak records

Let X ₁, X ₂,... be iid random variables (rv's) with the support on nonnegative integers and let (W _n , n≥0) denote the corresponding sequence of weak record values. We obtain new characterization of geometric and some other discrete distributions based on different forms of partial independence of rv's W _n and W _n+r —W _n for some fixed n≥0 and r≥1. We also prove that rv's W ₀ and W _n+1 —W _n have identical distribution if and only if (iff) the underlying distribution is geometric.     

A note on efficient simulation of multidimensional spatial autoregressive processes

In applications of spatial statistics, it is necessary to compute the product of some matrix W of spatial weights and a vector y of observations. The weighting matrix often needs to be adapted to the specific problems, such that the computation of Wy cannot necessarily be done with available R-packages. Hence, this article suggests one possibility treating such issues. The proposed technique avoids the computation of the matrix product by calculating each entry of Wy separately. Initially, a specific spatial autoregressive process is introduced. The performance of the proposed program is briefly compared to a basic program using the matrix multiplication.     

Estimation of Conditional Ranks and Tests of Exogeneity in Nonparametric Nonseparable Models

Consider a nonparametric nonseparable regression model Y = ?(Z, U), where ?(Z, U) is strictly increasing in U and U ～ U[0, 1]. We suppose that there exists an instrument W that is independent of U. The observable random variables are Y, Z, and W, all one-dimensional. We construct test statistics for the hypothesis that Z is exogenous, that is, that U is independent of Z. The test statistics are based on the observation that Z is exogenous if and only if V = F_Y|Z(Y|Z) is independent of W, and hence they do not require the estimation of the function ?. The asymptotic properties of the proposed tests are proved, and a bootstrap approximation of the critical values of the tests is shown to be consistent and to work for finite samples via simulations. An empirical example using the U.K. Family Expenditure Survey is also given. As a byproduct of our results we obtain the asymptotic properties of a kernel estimator of the distribution of V, which equals U when Z is exogenous. We show that this estimator converges to the uniform distribution at faster rate than the parametric n^{? 1/2}-rate.     

Statistical inference on the drift parameter in fractional Brownian motion with a deterministic drift

In statistical inference on the drift parameter a in the fractional Brownian motion W^H_t with the Hurst parameter H ∈ (0, 1) with a constant drift Y^H_t = at + W^H_t, there is a large number of options how to do it. We may, for example, base this inference on the properties of the standard normal distribution applied to the differences between the observed values of the process at discrete times. Although such methods are very simple, it turns out that more appropriate is to use inverse methods. Such methods can be generalized to non constant drift. For the hypotheses testing about the drift parameter a, it is more proper to standardize the observed process, and to use inverse methods based on the first exit time of the observed process of a pre-specified interval until some given time. These procedures are illustrated, and their times of decision are compared against the direct approach. Other generalizations are possible when the random part is a symmetric stochastic integral of a known, deterministic function with respect to fractional Brownian motion.     

A compound beta distribution with applications in finance

If X and Y are gamma distributed independent random variables then it is well known that the ratio X / (X + Y) has the beta distribution. In this note, the distribution of W = X / (X + Y) is considered when X and Y have the compound gamma distribution. We refer to the distribution of W as compound beta and describe an application to consumer price indices to show that compound beta is a better model than one based on the standard beta distribution. We derive various properties of W, including its probability density function, cumulative distribution function, hazard rate function and moments.     

Flat and Multimodal Likelihoods and Model Lack of Fit in Curved Exponential Families

Abstract. It is well known that curved exponential families can have multimodal likelihoods. We investigate the relationship between flat or multimodal likelihoods and model lack of fit, the latter measured by the score (Rao) test statistic W _U of the curved model as embedded in the corresponding full model. When data yield a locally flat or convex likelihood (root of multiplicity >1, terrace point, saddle point, local minimum), we provide a formula for W _U in such points, or a lower bound for it. The formula is related to the statistical curvature of the model, and it depends on the amount of Fisher information. We use three models as examples, including the Behrens–Fisher model, to see how a flat likelihood, etc. by itself can indicate a bad fit of the model. The results are related (dual) to classical results by Efron from 1978.     

Comparing the methods of measuring multi-rater agreement on an ordinal rating scale: a simulation study with an application to real data

Agreement among raters is an important issue in medicine, as well as in education and psychology. The agreement among two raters on a nominal or ordinal rating scale has been investigated in many articles. The multi-rater case with normally distributed ratings has also been explored at length. However, there is a lack of research on multiple raters using an ordinal rating scale. In this simulation study, several methods were compared with analyze rater agreement. The special case that was focused on was the multi-rater case using a bounded ordinal rating scale. The proposed methods for agreement were compared within different settings. Three main ordinal data simulation settings were used (normal, skewed and shifted data). In addition, the proposed methods were applied to a real data set from dermatology. The simulation results showed that the Kendall's W and mean gamma highly overestimated the agreement in data sets with shifts in data. ICC₄ for bounded data should be avoided in agreement studies with rating scales<5, where this method highly overestimated the simulated agreement. The difference in bias for all methods under study, except the mean gamma and Kendall's W, decreased as the rating scale increased. The bias of ICC₃ was consistent and small for nearly all simulation settings except the low agreement setting in the shifted data set. Researchers should be careful in selecting agreement methods, especially if shifts in ratings between raters exist and may apply more than one method before any conclusions are made.     

Bayesian X̄ control limits for exponentially distributed measurements

This article deals with the construction of an X? control chart using the Bayesian perspective. We obtain new control limits for the X? chart for exponentially distributed data-generating processes through the sequential use of Bayes’ theorem and credible intervals. Construction of the control chart is illustrated using a simulated data example. The performance of the proposed, standard, tolerance interval, exponential cumulative sum (CUSUM) and exponential exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) control limits are examined and compared via a Monte Carlo simulation study. The proposed Bayesian control limits are found to perform better than standard, tolerance interval, exponential EWMA and exponential CUSUM control limits for exponentially distributed processes.     

A probablistic analysis for an optimal screening problem

Summary We consider a lotL formed byN apparently similar unitsW ₁,…,W _N, where each of theW _i may come from one of two different populationsP ₁ andP ₂;T ₁,…,T _N denote the corresponding lifetimes. The units fromP _i undergo a failure of kindi and their survival function isS _i (t). We assume that the failure rate function are known and that the units fromP ₁ are ?substandard?: λ ₁ (t)≥λ ₂ (t), ∀t≥0. We want to putW ₁,…,W _N under a pre-operational test (burn-in test) in order to eliminate at least a great part of the substandard units and we face the problem of obtaining a rule for stopping the test under the assumption that, with the failure of a unit, it is possible to recognize the population from which the unit comes. Such a problem will be formalized as an optimal stopping problem for a suitably defined Markov process. Our study shall evidentiate some fundamental aspects of the problem and the role of the prior distribution of the (random) numberM ₀ of those units inL coming fromP ₁ (substandard). The latter distribution has a great influence on the form of the solution. This research was supported by the C.N.R. Project ?Statistica Bayesiana e Simulazione in Affidalità e Modellistica Biologica?.     

Pooling operators with the marginalization property

In this paper, we consider the problem of combining a number of opinions which have been expressed as probability measures P₁, …, P_n, over some space. It is shown that a pooling formula which has the marginalization property of McConway (1981) must be of the form T = Σⁿ_i=₁W_i P_i + (1 - Σⁿ_i =₁W_i)Q, where Q is an arbitrary measure and W₁, …, W_n ϵ [—1,1] are weights such that| Σ_J Σ _j w_j | ≤ 1 for every subset J of {1, …, n}. If, in addition, T is required to preserve the independence of arbitrary events A and B whenever these events are independent under each P_i, then either T = P_i for some 1 ≤ i ≤ n or T = Q, in which case Q takes values in {0, l}.     

Heine process as a q-analog of the Poisson process—waiting and interarrival times

In this study, we introduce the Heine process, {X_q(t), t > 0}, 0 < q < 1, where the random variable X_q(t), for every t > 0, represents the number of events (occurrences or arrivals) during a time interval (0, t]. The Heine process is introduced as a q-analog of the basic Poisson process. Also, in this study, we prove that the distribution of the waiting time W_{ν, q}, ν ? 1, up to the νth arrival, is a q-Erlang distribution and the interarrival times T_{k, q} = W_{k, q} ? W_{k ? 1, q},?k = 1, 2, …, ν with W_{0, q} = 0 are independent and equidistributed with a q-Exponential distribution.     

Approximating the Shapiro-Wilk W-test for non-normality

A new approximation for the coefficients required to calculate the Shapiro-WilkW-test is derived. It is easy to calculate and applies for any sample size greater than 3. A normalizing transformation for theW statistic is given, enabling itsP-value to be computed simply. The distribution of the new approximation toW agrees well with published critical points which use exact coefficients.     

Constrained Maximization of the Shapiro–Wilk W Statistic to Estimate Parameters of the Johnson S B Distribution

This article presents a constrained maximization of the Shapiro Wilk W statistic for estimating parameters of the Johnson S _B distribution. The gradient of the W statistic with respect to the minimum and range parameters is used within a quasi-Newton framework to achieve a fit for all four parameters. The method is evaluated with measures of bias and precision using pseudo-random samples from three different S _B populations. The population means were estimated with an average relative bias of less than 0.1% and the population standard deviations with less than 4.0% relative bias. The methodology appears promising as a tool for fitting this sometimes difficult distribution.     

The Variable Sampling Interval (VSI) in an Analysis of Taguchi's On-line Quality Monitoring Procedure for Variables

The procedure of on-line process control for variables proposed by Taguchi consists of inspecting the mth item (a single item) of every m items produced and deciding, at each inspection, whether the mean value is increased or not. If the value of the monitored statistic is outside of the control limits, one decides the process is out-of-control and the production is stopped for adjustment; otherwise, it continues. In this article, a variable sampling interval (with a longer L and a shorter m ≤ L) chart with two set of limits is used. These limits are the warning (±W) and the control (±C), where W ≤ C. The process is stopped for adjustment when an observation falls outside of the control limits or a sequence of h observations falls between the warning limits and the control limits. The longer sample interval is used after an adjustment or when an observation falls inside the warning limits; otherwise, the short sampling interval is used. The properties of an ergodic Markov chain are used to evaluate the time (in units) that the process remains in-control and out-of-control, with the aim of building an economic–statistical model. The parameters (the sampling intervals m and L, the control limits W and C and the length of run h) are optimized by minimizing the cost function with constraints on the average run lengths (ARLs) and the conformity fraction. The performance of the current proposal is more economical than the decision taken based on a sequence of length h = 1, L = m, and W = C, which is the model employed in earlier studies. A numerical example illustrates the proposed procedure.     

Non-central bivariate beta distribution

Let U, V and W be independent random variables, U and V having a gamma distribution with respective shape parameters a and b, and W having a non-central gamma distribution with shape and non-centrality parameters c and δ, respectively. Define X = U/(U + W) and Y = V/(V + W). Clearly, X and Y are correlated each having a non-central beta type 1 distribution, X ~ NCB1 (a,c;d){X \sim {\rm NCB1} (a,c;\delta)} and Y ~ NCB1 (b,c;d){Y \sim {\rm NCB1} (b,c;\delta)} . In this article we derive the joint probability density function of X and Y and study its properties.