An Extension of the Conventional TFR

The period-based total fertility rate is probably the most commonly used single measure of a population??s fertility level, but it has the disadvantage that it only controls for the population??s age distribution and not for any other subdividing feature, such as the parity distribution, ethnic composition, or educational attainment. This may lead the TFR to change because the population composition changes, even when the underlying fertility remains constant in each population sub-group. In the present contribution, we use elementary event-history methods to show how one can easily control the TFR against a change in the population??s distribution across any selected subdivision. We use the data of the Romanian Gender and Generations Survey of 2005 to illustrate how this can be done.     

The Estimation of Fertility Effects on Happiness: Even More Difficult than Usually Acknowledged

There have been many studies of how the number of children in a family affects the parents’ or the children’s lives. One strand of this research focuses on the implications of fertility for the parents’ level of self-reported well-being or happiness. It is argued in this paper that an overall “happiness effect” is not very informative because of the presumably large variation in individuals’ perceived gains from having children. Furthermore, it is explained that such an effect would be difficult to estimate. Most importantly, the highly varying ideas about how a child will affect life quality are important for the decision about whether to have a child. Many of those who have few or no children have chosen this because they think their life will be best this way, and their happiness therefore tells us little about how happy their more fertile counterparts—who to a large extent have different views about the consequences of childbearing—would have been if they had few or no children. This estimation problem that arises when effects of a certain event (here childbearing) are heterogeneous, and the individuals who experience that event tend to be among those for whom the effects are particularly positive or negative, is acknowledged in the treatment effect literature. However, there is little consciousness about it in the fertility–happiness research. In addition, there is a more “standard” selection problem: factors with implications for childbearing desires, or for the chance of fulfilling these, may also affect or be linked to happiness for other reasons. Unfortunately, even the most advanced statistical approaches that have been used in this research area fail to handle all these problems, so reported results should be interpreted very cautiously.     

Sub-Replacement Fertility Intentions in Austria

Combining the data of the 1986–2001 Microcensus surveys, I reconstruct trends in fertility intentions across time and over the life course of Austrian women born since the 1950s. Young adults in Austria expressed fertility intentions that were below the replacement-level threshold as early as in 1986 and women born since the mid-1950s consistently desired fewer than two children on average throughout their reproductive lives. A two-child family norm, however, still clearly dominates the fertility intentions of different age, cohort and education groups. Uncertainty about childbearing intentions is rather common, especially among younger and childless respondents. Different assumptions about reproductive preferences of undecided respondents affect estimates of the mean intended family size. Although Austrians were among the first in Europe to express low fertility intentions, their position is no longer unique. By the early 2000s, young women in a number of other European countries also expressed sub-replacement fertility intentions.     

Didn’t Plan One but got One: Unintended and sooner-than-intended Parents in the East and the West of Europe

The realisation rates of short-term childbearing intentions are known to be consistently lower in post-socialist countries than in the rest of Europe. However, the East–West differences in the outcomes of intentions to postpone or forego (further) childbearing have not been previously examined. We employ two panel waves of the Generations and Gender Survey in six countries (three from Eastern and three from Western Europe), and, based on the short- and long-term fertility intentions expressed by respondents at the first survey wave, we classify the births occurring between two waves as intended, sooner-than-intended, or unintended. We find that in our study population of non-teenage respondents who had the same partner at both survey waves and a child between the two survey waves, between around 10% (Western European countries) and 30% (Eastern European countries) experienced an unintended or a sooner-than-intended birth. The East–West divide is largely driven by the share of unintended parents which is clearly higher in the post-socialist countries. However, the geographical pattern fades away once we control for the anticipated costs of having a child. Our study gives insight into East–West differences in attitudes to childbearing and into how they affect reproductive behaviour. It also offers methodological improvements of cross-national panel surveys designed to examine childbearing intentions that would allow for a more accurate assessment of childbearing intendedness.     

Intentions to Live Together Among Couples Living Apart: Differences by Age and Gender

One of the central questions about LAT (living apart together) is whether these partnerships are short-term arrangements due to temporary constraints, and should be viewed as part of courtship towards cohabitation and marriage, or whether they replace cohabitation and marriage as a long-term arrangement. The current study addresses this question and examines intentions to live together among people living apart by age and gender. This study uses Generations and Gender Study (GGS) data for eleven European countries. The findings reveal an interesting interaction of age and gender. More specifically, younger women have higher intentions to live together than younger men, but older women have lower intentions than older men. These gender differences remain significant also in the multivariate analyses. These findings suggest that older women in LAT may be undoing gender to a greater extent than younger women, who still intend to live in a more traditional (and probably gendered) arrangement of cohabitation and possibly marriage. Having resident children reduces intentions to live together among people younger than age 50, but the effect does not differ by gender. The effect of non-resident children on intentions to live together is statistically non-significant.     

Are Individuals’ Desired Family Sizes Stable? Evidence from West German Panel Data

Using West German panel data constructed from the 1988 and 1994/1995 wave of the DJI Familiensurvey, we analyze the stability and determinants of individuals’ total desired fertility. We find considerable variation of total desired fertility across respondents and across interviews. In particular, up to 50% of individuals report a different total desired fertility across survey waves. Multivariate analysis confirms the importance of background factors including growing up with both parents, having more siblings, and being Catholic for preference formation. Consistent with the idea that life course experiences provide new information regarding the expected costs and benefits of different family sizes, the influence of background factors on total desired fertility is strong early in life and weakens as subsequent life course experiences, including childbearing, take effect. Accounting for unobserved individual heterogeneity, we estimate that an additional child may increase the total desired fertility of women with children by 0.14 children, less than what conventional estimates from cross-sectional data would have suggested.     

Does Migrant Background Matter for Adolescents’ Fertility Preferences? The Latin American 1.5 Generation in Spain

This article examines the fertility preferences of Latin American adolescents of the 1.5 generation and their native peers in Spain. We compare their expected age at first birth as well as their expected family size. The fertility preferences of the 1.5 generation are likely to reflect the family values of two different socialization environments as well as the adaptation process to the childbearing norms of the host society. The analysis is based on the Chances Survey, which collected data from 2700 adolescents in secondary schools in Madrid in 2011. Results indicate that fertility timing preferences of Latin American adolescents reflect socialization influences from the society of origin, but also a quick adaptation to the childbearing norms in the host society, since their expected age at first birth is somewhat earlier than that of their Spanish peers but considerably later than that prevailing in their country of origin. The degree of social integration, measured by the number of the respondent’s best friends who were Spanish, seems more important than age at migration for diminishing the gap between Latin Americans and Spaniards. Moreover, higher educational expectations are associated with preferences for postponed entry into parenthood. With regard to family size expectations, we find no significant variation between adolescents of migrant and native origin, confirming the argument that the “two-child norm” currently prevails in both middle- and high-income countries.     

Second Unions Now More Stable than First? A Comparison of Separation Risks by Union Order in France

The frequency of union dissolutions increased sharply over the past 40 years in Western Europe and North America, resulting in a rapid growth in the number of persons living with a second partner. In studies of the 1980s, primarily conducted within the context of marriage, second partnerships were generally found to be less stable than first unions, but more recent studies provide more conflicting evidence. Taking the example of France, we study whether the relationship between first and second union stability indeed reversed between the 1970s and the 2000s, and how union and individual characteristics contributed to changes over time. The analysis presented here is based on the French Generations and Gender Survey (2005). The article first provides an overview of the differences in marriage, childbearing and breakup behaviours in first and second unions. Second, a piecewise linear model for repeated events is used to compare women’s dissolution risks in first and second unions. The results show that over time, the higher instability of second compared to first unions disappeared. Further, women in second unions adopted unmarried cohabitation as a living arrangement more often across the whole period and were more likely to have stepchildren, which was associated with less stable unions. Taking into account this diversity of family situations, i.e. controlling for family form and children, second unions were more stable than first unions, even during the past. At both union orders, marriage breakup risks tended to stabilise despite a continuing increase in the prevalence of separation, which suggests that cohabitation increasingly acts as a filter for marriage.     

生育观念与制度建构互动研究——基于社会控制的视角

中国现阶段的生育观念正处于由传统型向现代型转变过程中,在生育目的、生育性别偏好、对生育子女的数量和质量等方面,均呈现出了生育观念的现代化.这种现代化的生育观念是由国家一系列的制度建构而成的,尽管有些制度的初衷并不是对生育观念进行型构,但是它们的"潜功能"发挥了转变生育观念的功效.目前中国社会的现实告诉我们,生育观念随制度的不同建构而发生嬗变,进而促使人们的生育观念适应社会的发展而提供适宜的人口环境.     

Religion and Fertility in Western Europe: Trends Across Cohorts in Britain,France and the Netherlands

The role of religion in explaining fertility differences is often overlooked in demographic studies, particularly in Western Europe, where there has been a substantial decline in institutional forms of religious adherence. The current study explores the changing relationships between religion and childbearing in Britain, France and the Netherlands. Using data from the Generations and Gender Programme and the British Household Panel Survey, religious differences in completed fertility and the transition to first birth are explored across cohorts of women. In addition, a longitudinal analysis is employed to examine the influence of religion on subsequent childbearing. Although the secularization paradigm assumes that the influence of religion on individual behavior will diminish over time, it is found that religious affiliation and practice continue to be important determinants of fertility and family formation patterns. However, there is some variation in the relationship between religion and fertility across countries; while in France and the Netherlands fertility gaps by religiosity are either consistent or increasing, in Britain, this gap appears to have narrowed over time. These findings suggest that fertility differences by religion also depend on the particular social context of religious institutions in each country.     

Kinship patterns and household composition: Older unmarried Hungarian women, 1984

Household composition of older unmarried women in Hungary is analyzed using data from the 1984 microcensus. The principal determinants of household composition investigated are kin availability — the number of living children, siblings, and parents — health status, marital status, age, and income. A multinomial logit model distinguishing among five household types reveals that number of children, severe disabilities, age and income are all strongly related to household composition. Trends in fertility and mortality patterns suggest that kinship patterns will change in coming years; these results imply that household composition will, in turn, change as well.     

社会经济地位、主观流动感知与育龄女性的二孩生育意愿——基于CGSS2013数据的经验研究

文章旨在通过对2013中国综合社会调查的截面数据进行回归分析,探讨育龄女性的社会经济地位、主观流动感知与其二孩生育意愿之间的关系。不同社会经济地位的育龄女性二孩生育意愿存在显著差异:受教育程度越高,二孩生育意愿越低;个人收入越高,二孩生育意愿越低;所在家庭拥有房产数量越多,育龄女性二孩生育意愿越强。不同主观流动感知的育龄女性其生育意愿之间存在显著差异:认为自己过去十年阶层上向流动的程度越高,其二孩生育意愿就越强;预期未来十年社会阶层上向流动程度越高,其二孩生育意愿就越强。     

Modelling step-families

A combined marco-micro model is applied to a population similar to that forecast for 2035 in the Netherlands in order to simulate the effect on kinship networks of a mating system of serial monogamy. The importance of incorporating a parameter for the degree of concentration of childbearing over the female population is emphasized. The inputs to the model are vectors of fertility rates by age of mother, and by age of father, a matrix of first-marriage rates by age of both partners (used in the macro-analytical expressions), and two parametersH andS (used in the micro-simulation phase). The output is a data base of hypothetical individuals, whose records contain identification number, age, sex, and the identification numbers of their relatives.     

Grandparenting and Childbearing in the Extended Family

The study analyzes the role of grandparents’ childcare provision on their adult children’s fertility behavior using data from the Survey of Health, Aging and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) for eleven European countries. An important innovation is that we take into account siblings’ fertility behavior and share of grandparents’ time in terms of childcare. We show that availability of grandparents plays an important role in individuals’ decision of having children. Being helped by grandparents increases the chance of childbearing when existing grandchildren are not too young. On the other hand, the probability of having a child is lower when grandparents are already looking after a sibling’s young child. The role of grandparenting appears stronger in the South of Europe, where public childcare for young children is less prevalent.     

Does Citizenship Still Matter? Second Birth Risks of Migrants from Albania, Morocco, and Romania in Italy

In this article we investigate the propensities to have the second child in Italy for foreign women from Albania, Morocco, and Romania. Our study contributes to the international debate on migrant fertility by testing the main competing hypotheses present in literature, using the Italian case as an illustration. Italy is an important case study because it has been a country of immigration for only a few decades and because the literature on this topic was limited in Italy by the difficulties in obtaining proper longitudinal data. An important component of our work was therefore to build a new data set, using record linkage procedures that allow us to improve the information from Survey on Birth and Resident Permit Registers and to study the individual childbearing trajectories. Our results confirm the importance of the mother??s citizenship. The impact remains strong after controlling for the main demographic and migratory characteristics. We found that older cohorts experience a disruption effect but that a native Italian partner can promote an adaptation process such as a convergence in fertility behavior toward that of native Italian women.     

Small Effects of Selective Migration and Selective Survival in Retrospective Studies of Fertility

In this study, we assess the accuracy of fertility estimates that stem from the retrospective information that can be derived from an existing cross-sectional population. Swedish population registers contain information on the childbearing of all people ever registered as living in Sweden, and thus allow us to avoid problems of selectivity by the virtue of survival or nonemigration when estimating the fertility measures for previous calendar periods. We calculate two types of fertility rates for each year in 1961–1999: (i) rates that are based on the population that was living in Sweden at the end of 1999, and (ii) rates that also include information on people who had died or emigrated before the turn of the twentieth century. We find that the omission of information on individuals who had emigrated or died, as the situation would be in any demographic survey, most often have negligible effects on fertility measures. However, first-birth rates of immigrants gradually become more biased as we move back in time from 1999 so that they increasingly tend to over-estimate the true fertility of that population.     

Pathways to a Third Child in Sweden

The transition from two to three children is investigated, using data on Swedish women's fertility behaviour and labour force participation over a period of some 20 years ending in 1992/93. Two questions are examined: what is the relationship between working life and childbearing of two-child mothers? Are there differences in fertility between cohabiting and married couples? Several paths to the third child are identified, one of women with a university education and another of women with preference for more children, reflected by marriage after having the first or the second child or by persistent working experience followed by household work.     

The family histories of australian women

This paper exploits retrospective life-history data to examine changing age-specific patterns of co-residence of Australian women between the ages of 20 and 59 years at interview in 1986. Overlaying histories of leaving home, marital unions and childbearing, we identify cohort changes in the time spent before leaving the parental home, in transition between leaving home and forming a conjugal union, in times spent in union and times spent with children. Our analyses show that, despite massive recent declines in fertility and nuptiality, and a greater diversity in living arrangements, the nuclear family of couple and children remains the most common household unit and is unlikely to lose its pre-eminence in the near future.Cet article utilise des données biographiques rétrospectives, pour examiner les changements dans les conduites résidentielles de femmes australiennes selon l'âge. Ces femmes interviewées en 1986 avaient entre 20 et 59 ans. Recoupant les biographies migratoires et familiales, nous identifions des changements selon les cohortes dans la durée passée chez les parents, dans la transition entre la décohabitation et la formation d'une union conjugale, dans les durées passées en union et les durées passées avec les enfants. Nos analyses montrent que la famille nucléaire avec un couple et des enfants reste le type de ménage le plus répandu qui a peu de chances de perdre sa prééminence dans le proche avenir, cela en dépit de la récente et importante baisse de la fécondite et de la nuptialité.     

上海市生育意愿30年的演变历程

通过对1980年初以来上海开展的数次生育意愿调查结果的回顾与梳理,展现了过去30年上海人口生育意愿(主要是意愿子女数和意愿子女性别)的演变历程:意愿子女数呈不断减少趋势;不同群体间生育意愿数虽存在差异,但都低于2个孩子。同时,总和生育率、孩次率等多项指标显示,上海人口的实际生育已长期处于很低水平。文中历次调查的意愿生育子女数与相应年份总和生育率的纵向比较可表明,在低生育水平社会,人们的实际生育水平一般低于所报告的意愿生育水平。