沪深股市量价因果关系实证研究

文章考察了1994~2004年沪深股市不同性质交易量与收益率及其绝对值的Granger因果关系。研究发现:在上海市场上,原始交易量、预期交易量、非预期交易量与收益率只存在收益率至交易量的单向因果关系,非预期交易量中超过均值部分与收益率存在双向因果关系;而这四种交易量与收益率绝对值都存在双向因果关系。在深圳市场上,只存在收益率及其绝对值至交易量的单向因果关系。     

我国期货市场期货价格收益、交易量、波动性关系的动态分析

我国期货市场发展至今已有十多年的时间 ,但对期货市场内部结构、运行特征的研究非常缺乏 ,本文以国内期货市场最为活跃的期货品种上海期货交易所铜、铝 ,大连商品交易所大豆为代表 ,研究期货价格收益、交易量、波动性之间的动态关系 ,揭示出我国期货市场的内在特征 ,填补国内这方面研究的空白。研究期货价格收益、交易量、波动性之间的动态关系对我们全面认识和把握期货市场具有重要的意义。对期货价格收益与交易量之间关系的研究有助于对期货市场内部结构 ,市场信息传播方式的了解 ;有助于对期货价格分布特征的解释 ;在期货价格收益与交易…     

Estimating Heston's and Bates’ models parameters using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation

Heston's model and Bates’ model are very important in option pricing. It is mentioned in Mendoza's paper [Bayesian estimation and option mispricing (job market paper). Cambridge, MA: Massachusetts Institute of Technology; 2011] that Mexican Stock Exchange introduced options over its main index (the Índice de Precios y Cotizaciones) in 2004 which used Heston's model to price options on days when there was no trading. The estimation of the parameters in both models is not easy. One of the methods is Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm (MCMC for short). In this paper, we adopt Li, Wells and Yu's MCMC algorithm [A Bayesian analysis of return dynamics with levy jumps. Rev Financ Stud. 2008;21(5):2345–2377]. We provide the necessary derivation utilizing prior distributions since they are otherwise unavailable in the literature. As Li et al. used their model to analyse S&P 500 data from 2 January 1980 to 29 December 2000, we likewise recreate their analysis, this time using data from 1987 to 2012. We would like to involve the financial crisis and analyse how stable the method is while applying to the financial crisis. Unlike Li et al., we find that the estimation is very sensitive to the prior distribution assumption. In addition, we have R-code available by request. We hope to offer tools for people doing empirical research in financial mathematics or quantitative finance.     

The Bayes rule of the variance parameter of the hierarchical normal and inverse gamma model under Stein's loss

For the variance parameter of the hierarchical normal and inverse gamma model, we analytically calculate the Bayes rule (estimator) with respect to a prior distribution IG (alpha, beta) under Stein's loss function. This estimator minimizes the posterior expected Stein's loss (PESL). We also analytically calculate the Bayes rule and the PESL under the squared error loss. Finally, the numerical simulations exemplify that the PESLs depend only on alpha and the number of observations. The Bayes rules and PESLs under Stein's loss are unanimously smaller than those under the squared error loss.     

猪肉价格上涨与消费福利损失的实证研究——以江西省瑞昌市低收入者为例

2007年5月以来的猪肉价格上涨给低收入者带来了较大的福利损失,为确保低收入者的基本生活水平不受影响,需要对其进行适当财政补贴。利用经验数据拟合了低收入者的效用函数,结合2007年前三季度与2006年前三季度的猪肉价格变动,运用等价性变化、补偿性变化以及消费者剩余变化,衡量了猪肉价格上涨造成的低收入者福利损失,并为政府确定对低收入者的财政补贴金额提供了切实可行的参考标准。     

Relatioinships between economic and statistical price indices

In the following, the economic counterparts of Eichhorn's and Voeller's tests for statistical price indices will be studied. We will see that replacing the statistical Commensurability Axiom in the economic price index theory by a property which is only concerned with price changes leads to similar relationships between this one and several other tests as in the statistical price index theory.     

Equity Trading Volume and Volatility: Latent Information Arrivals and Common Long-Run Dependencies

This article examines the behavior of equity trading volume and volatility for the individual firms composing the Standard & Poor's 100 composite index. Using multivariate spectral methods, we find that fractionally integrated processes best describe the long-run temporal dependencies in both series. Consistent with a stylized mixture-of-distributions hypothesis model in which the aggregate “news”-arrival process possesses long-memory characteristics, the long-run hyperbolic decay rates appear to be common across each volume-volatility pair.     

An example arising from berkson's conjecture

Berkson (1980) conjectured that minimum x² was a superior procedure to that of maximum likelihood, especially with regard to mean squared error. To explore his conjecture, we analyze his (1955) bioassay problem related to logistic regression. We consider not only the criterion of mean squared error for the comparison of these estimators, but also include alternative criteria such as concentration functions and Pitman's measure of closeness. The choice of these latter criteria is motivated by Rao's (1981) considerations of the shortcomings of mean squared error. We also include several Rao-Blackwellized versions of the minimum logit x² the purpose of these comparisons.     

Explaining and Forecasting Online Auction Prices and Their Dynamics Using Functional Data Analysis

Online auctions have become increasingly popular in recent years, and as a consequence there is a growing body of empirical research on this topic. Most of that research treats data from online auctions as cross-sectional, and consequently ignores the changing dynamics that occur during an auction. In this article we take a different look at online auctions and propose to study an auction's price evolution and associated price dynamics. Specifically, we develop a dynamic forecasting system to predict the price of an ongoing auction. By dynamic, we mean that the model can predict the price of an auction “in progress” and can update its prediction based on newly arriving information. Forecasting price in online auctions is challenging because traditional forecasting methods cannot adequately account for two features of online auction data: (1) the unequal spacing of bids and (2) the changing dynamics of price and bidding throughout the auction. Our dynamic forecasting model accounts for these special features by using modern functional data analysis techniques. Specifically, we estimate an auction's price velocity and acceleration and use these dynamics, together with other auction-related information, to develop a dynamic functional forecasting model. We also use the functional context to systematically describe the empirical regularities of auction dynamics. We apply our method to a novel set of Harry Potter and Microsoft Xbox data and show that our forecasting model outperforms traditional methods.     

Bayesian inference of three-parameter bathtub-shaped lifetime distribution

We investigate a Bayesian inference in the three-parameter bathtub-shaped lifetime distribution which is obtained by adding a power parameter to the two-parameter bathtub-shaped lifetime distribution suggested by Chen (2000). The Bayes estimators under the balanced squared error loss function are derived for three parameters. Then, we have used Lindley's and Tierney–Kadane approximations (see Lindley 1980; Tierney and Kadane 1986) for computing these Bayes estimators. In particular, we propose the explicit form of Lindley's approximation for the model with three parameters. We also give applications with a simulated data set and two real data sets to show the use of discussed computing methods. Finally, concluding remarks are mentioned.     

Recursive distribution estimator defined by stochastic approximation method using Bernstein polynomials

We propose a recursive distribution estimator using Robbins-Monro's algorithm and Bernstein polynomials. We study the properties of the recursive estimator, as a competitor of Vitale's distribution estimator. We show that, with optimal parameters, our proposal dominates Vitale's estimator in terms of the mean integrated squared error. Finally, we confirm theoretical result throught a simulation study.     

Identification of technical analysis patterns with smoothing splines for bitcoin prices

ABSTRACT

This research studies automatic price pattern search procedure for bitcoin cryptocurrency based on 1-min price data. To achieve this, search algorithm is proposed based on nonparametric regression method of smoothing splines. We investigate some well-known technical analysis patterns and construct algorithmic trading strategy to evaluate the effectiveness of the patterns. We found that method of smoothing splines for identifying the technical analysis patterns and that strategies based on certain technical analysis patterns yield returns that significantly exceed results of unconditional trading strategies.     

Bayes Prediction for a Heteroscedastic Regression Superpopulation Model Using Balanced Loss Function

We consider Prais–Houthakker heteroscedastic normal regression model having variance of the dependent variable same as square of its expectation. Bayes predictors for the regression coefficient and the mean of a finite population are derived using Zellner's balanced loss function. Bayes predictive expected losses are obtained and compared with those of classical predictors and Bayes predictors under squared error loss function to examine their loss robustness.     

中国新股异常现象的行为解释

 我们采用1996年至2009年上市的899新股为样本检验了投资者参与程度与新股市场表现之间的关系。我们发现新股上市首日收益率和投资者参与程度的正相关,与基于Rock（1986）和Welch（1992）的理性参与模型、基于Ellul和Pagano（2006）的流动性参与假说、和基于Miller（1977）的价格泡沫假说都是一致的。但是进一步的研究表明新股长期表现和新股首日收益率的负相关,这一结果只和价格泡沫假说是一致的。我们的实证结果表明中国新股上市首日观察到的高收益率的主要原因不太可能是发行公司有意的折价行为,而更有可能是过多的新股投资者导致新股短期均衡价格偏离基本面价值,这种价格的偏离在长期得到了纠正。     

交易机制与短期收益的波动

证券交易机制是证券市场中的一项制度安排。分为狭义和广义交易机制。狭义的交易机制仅指证券价格的决定机制,包含三个方面的内容:一是交易优先级的设置。二是指令撮合方式,分为集合竞价和持续竞价两种。三是为防止市场发生剧烈波动,指令执行中某些强制性的价格稳定机制,如涨跌幅限制。广义的交易机制是各种交易制度的总称,包括价格决定机制、清算机制、信息传播机制等内容。在狭义的交易机制中,两类指令撮合方式代表了两种不同的价格形成机制。在集合竞价方式下,交易指令累积到一定程度,再按“价格优先,时间优先”的原则集中进行撮合。持续…     

持续期间、交易量、波动率与知情交易

内容提要：Admati和Pfleiderer [1]认为交易强度的增加,可能来自于知情交易也可能来自于流动性交易。本文通过分析中国股票市场上持续期间、交易量和波动率之间的关系,提供了识别知情交易和流动性交易的证据。与国外相关研究结论均不同的是,本文的实证结果认为：波动率与持续期间之间存在非线性关系,交易量较小时,交易强度的增加主要来自于流动性交易;而交易量较大时,交易强度的增加主要来自于知情交易。最后,本文对以上实证结果进行了稳健性检验,通过分析波动率日内特征对实证结果的影响,本文还发现,中国股票市场的知情交易通常发生在刚开盘的阶段。     

对上海期货交易所金属铜量价关系的实证分析

一、引言对商品价格变动与交易量之间相互关系的分析一直是金融市场讨论的热门话题。Ｋａｒｐｏｆｆ(1987)指出 ,研究商品价格波动与交易量之间关系有助于了解市场的结构、市场信息传播的方式和速度 ,以及市场价格如何对信息作出反映。通常价格的变化可以理解为市场对新的信息的反映 ,而交易量则可解释为投资者新信息认识的差异程度 ,如果商品价格的变动与交易量之间存在关联 ,则可利用价格变动与交易量之间的联合分布信息进行有益的分析和推断。Ｇｒａｎｇｅｒ(196 3)等最早利用周数据资料 ,采用谱分析方法对美国证券交易综合价格指数 (Ｓ…     

基于RiskMetrics模型的单个期货合约保证金比例设计

为了规避价格波动风险,期货交易所应该采取动态保证金设置方式。本文对单个期货合约的日收益序列建立了基于RiskMetrics的VaR模型,用滚动样本预测下一交易日的VaR值,而LR检验表明所建立的VaR模型能较好地测度价格波动风险。因此,下一交易日保证金比例可以设置为预测的VaR值和所规定的涨跌停板率的最小值,这样就能以相应的概率抵御该交易日价格波动带来的风险。     

EM Algorithm Estimation of Simultaneous Equation Model with Limited Variables: An Example of Cigarette Consumption

The two-part model and Heckman's sample selection model are often used in economic studies which involve analyzing the demand for limited variables. This study proposed a simultaneous equation model (SEM) and used the expectation-maximization algorithm to obtain the maximum likelihood estimate. We then constructed a simulation to compare the performance of estimates of price elasticity using SEM with those estimates from the two-part model and the sample selection model. The simulation shows that the estimates of price elasticity by SEM are more precise than those by the sample selection model and the two-part model when the model includes limited independent variables. Finally, we analyzed a real example of cigarette consumption as an application. We found an increase in cigarette price associated with a decrease in both the propensity to consume cigarettes and the amount actually consumed.     

The Neutrality Properties of Competing Relative Price Models: Tests Using Linear Feedback

This article uses a variant of Geweke's (1982) linear feedback measure to test common characterizations of monetary neutrality implicit in classes of relative price models. The neutrality properties are defined in terms of relative price changes' response to monetary policy shocks in a system including average price changes, an interest rate, and industrial production growth. The magnitude and patterns of monetary feedback found in U.S. relative price data provide no support for any of the structurally neutral models.