"Little" and "Big" Pictures in Our Heads: Race, Local Context, and Innumeracy About Racial Groups in the United States

Americans do not know what percentage of the nation's residentsare whites, blacks, Hispanics, Asians, and American Indians.Using the 2000 General Social Survey, I find that respondentsof all races underestimate the percentages of whites and overestimatethe percentages of racial/ethnic minority groups and multiracialAmericans in the United States; however, they perceive theirlocal communities quite differently. As a first step towardunderstanding this discrepancy, I test whether individuals’local surroundings serve as a source of information for theirpictures of the United States. I examine the relationship between"objective" data and respondents’ subjective perceptionsof where they live, and compare their respective effects onAmericans’ perceptions of the nation. Multivariate multilevelanalyses show that respondents’ perceptions of differentracial group sizes in their communities are the strongest predictorsof innumeracy at the national level, while "objective" racialcontext measured at the local level has less of an effect. Thesefindings have important implications for research on racialcontext, which assumes that census numbers for respondents’locales are good proxies for their perceptions of the size ofracial/ethnic groups in their communities. Furthermore, thesefindings suggest that scholars need to start thinking aboutwhy whites and non-whites have similar "big pictures" of thenation, why their "little pictures" vary a great deal, and whythe motivations for over- and underestimation may differ byracial/ethnic group.     

"Coloured Power" or "Coloured Bourgeoisie"? Political Attitudes among South African Coloureds

Why have Coloureds in South Africa—people of mixed racialdescent—voiced less opposition to white minority rulethan have black Africans? A theoretical analysis suggests thatColoureds feel both "relatively deprived" in comparison withwhites and "relatively gratified" in comparison with Africans,that they believe they may eventually be accepted by whites,and that individually they have difficulty identifying withthe broader Coloured community; in short, seemingly ideal conditionsfor the emergence of a "Coloured Bourgeoisie" rather than a"Coloured Power" ideology.     

ELECTORAL CONSEQUENCES OF "WINNING" TELEVISED CAMPAIGN DEBATES

This study explores the long-neglected impact of a candidatebeing perceived as the "winner" of political debates on individualvoting behaviour in West Germany. While there has been muchresearch on the effects of debates on perceptions of candidatepolicy stands and personality atttributes, there has been littlework that attempts to guage how much "winning" the debate helpsa candidate at the polls. I investigate this process with straightforwardprobit models of the vote choice, including party identificationand candiate evaluation as well as whether the individual judgeda particular candidate as the "winner", or "fared best" in thedebate. These models are run for the 1972, 1976, 1980, and 1983elections in West Germany. The results show that there is aconsistent impact of "winning" the debate on individual votingchoices in West Germany; controlling for party and other factors,there is a significantly higher probability of voting for theparty of the politician the respondent feels won the contest.Debates, then, do ultimately make a substabtial electoral difference.     

On More Reliably Employing the Concept of "Reliability"

Confusion has resulted from using the term "reliability" tomean both measurement-error variance and sampling-error variance.This article discusses the conceptual similarities and differencesbetween the various types of variance subsumed under "reliability"in order to distinguish among them.     

Reporting "The Polls" in 2004

Media reports of polls indicate how well public opinion pollshave been integrated into campaign coverage. This article examineshow polls were used in 2004. Although there were relativelylimited methodological changes in how polls were conducted in2004, there were changes in how the polls were treated in themedia. Americans in 2004 were subjected to intense debates aboutpolls and to as much reporting about "the polls" as there wasof the polls themselves. The discussion of "the polls" in 2004included claims of electability during the Democratic nominatingprocess, increased reporting about methodological issues, andheightened political criticisms of "the polls." The articleconcludes with a discussion of the current state and the futureof news polling.     

Racializing the "Social Development" State: Investing in Children in Aotearoa/New Zealand

This paper focuses on the claim that the child is emerging asa key figure of social governance. International studies suggestthat as liberal welfare states increasingly draw on social investmentdiscourse, the child—particularly the child-as-worker-in-becoming—hasemerged as an iconic figure. This has resulted in the childbecoming the central subject of social policies and programsand the focus of new spending priorities. In Aotearoa/New Zealand,however, the figure of the child is much less prominent thanelsewhere. Moreover, in the policies and programs of the NewZealand "social development" state, the child is often racializedby virtue of its location within specific family groupings andgeographical communities. In turn, this has implications forthe positioning of women. As we show, the child/mother who standsto benefit from the "investments" of social development in Aotearoa/NewZealand is actually more likely to be a Pkeh child/mother, whereasthe child/mother requiring continued programmatic interventionis more likely to be Mori or Pacific. This finding points tothe need for feminist scholars to examine further the complexinterpenetration of gender and race/ethnicity in the shapingof contemporary socio-political landscapes.     

Making Child Care "Affordable" in the United States

Two alternative federally financed plans are presented as modelsfor a program which would make child care of acceptable quality"affordable" for millions of American families. Taking a cuefrom currently operating state programs, care is defined as"affordable" if it costs parents no more than 30 percent ofthe amount by which their income exceeds the poverty line. Thefirst plan would cost the government $25 billion per year andwould concentrate help on families with incomes up to twicethe poverty line. The second would cost $39 billion per year,would provide higher quality care, and would allow all UnitedStates families to have access to care that was "affordable"by our definition. Costs of these magnitudes preclude financingof any significant part by employers or philanthropies. Whilesome government savings might result from the beneficial effectsof these programs, the main rationale for them rests, not onthe calculation that they will save the government money (althoughthey might), but on the fact that they will prevent considerablemisery to children and their families. Making quality childcare affordable to all families would result in safer, moreeducational, and more enjoyable care for children, and wouldgive a financial boost to families pitifully short of resourcesin a non-stigmatizing way. It would reduce child poverty andreduce enrollment in welfare-type programs. It would also giveparents a chance to particiopate in the world of work and toachieve the gains in resources and status that such a participationwould alllow.     

THE TREND IN "NO RELIGION" RESPONDENTS TO U.S. NATIONAL SURVEYS, LATE 1950s TO EARLY 1980s

Data from 110 U.S. national surveys are used to study the trendin "no religion" responses from the late 1950s to the early1980s. The trend was monotonically upward, at least until the1980s, when there were signs of leveling off or an incipientreversal of the trend. The trend came about through both changeswithin birth cohorts and cohort succession, and it involvedpersons of all major religious backgrounds and both men andwomen. Whether or not the change indicates an important degreeof secularization is considered at length. Problems involvedin using a dichotomous indicator to gauge change in a quantitativevariable are discussed.     

"SECRET BALLOTS" AND SELF-REPORTS IN AN EXIT-POLL EXPERIMENT

A controlled exit-poll experiment on Election Day (November3, 1992) shows that refusals to answer questions and other evasiveforms of responding were significantly lower when respondentswere given a self-administered "secret-ballot" questionnairethan when they were interviewed face-to-face. While there weresome suggestive interactions of this mode-of-data collectioneffect with age and sex, and with the partisan atmosphere ofthe precinct in which the interviews were conducted, they wereborderline in significance, inconsistent in pattern, or difficuitto interpret. More important, comparisons with official electionreturns (the truth) indicated that the secret-ballot techniquewas more accurate than were face-to-face interviews in estimatingthe final outcome on the most socially sensitive of three self-reportedvotes: a vote for or against a tax levy for elderly services.Using a genuine secret ballot in the tradition of the olderGallup preelection polls can thus increase the validity of self-reportsin exit polls today.     

"Some of my best friends are black...": Interracial Friendship and Whites' Racial Attitudes

We examine the major tenets and assumptions of the well-knowncontact theory of prejudice, and we compare them with the morecynical reasoning implied by the infamous "Some of my best friendsare black, but..." expression. After assessing the extant evidencefor the contact theory, we use a unique set of national surveydata to address the central postulates of that theory. We examinethe racial beliefs, feelings, social dispositions, and policyviews of whites who have contact with blacks as friends, acquaintances,or neighbors. Our results suggest that personal interracialcontact is selective in its effects on whites' racial attitudes,that intimacy is less important than variety of contacts, andthat any effects are contingent on the relative socioeconomicstatus of black contacts. On the basis of our analysis, we reassessthe contact theory and propose a more political conception ofthe attitudes of dominant groups toward subordinates. We arguethat the message contained in the relationship between personalcontact with subordinates and intergroup attitudes is less benignthan is suggested by the contact theory.     

Correction to "The Polls: Environmental Protection"

In "The Polls: Environmental Protection" (POQ 50 (2):273) thefollowing figures are the correct ones: NORC-GSS, 1985, Toomuch: 8%, Dk: 4%; Roper, 1983, Too far: 14%.     

In Search of a Constituency for the "New Religious Right"

The paper evaluates claims by the "New Religious Right" to havecreated a mass constituency or a new "moral majority." The paperexamines evidence for the development over the l970s of newconsciousness which reflected politicization of a growing moralopposition to three feminist issues: abortion, sexual preference,and women's liberation. Comparisons are drawn with attitudestoward 11 national spending priorities. All the findings runcontrary to claims for a newly politicized "moral majority."The basic findings are these: (1) there is no conservative trendon the three feminist issues for 1972–80; (2) factor analytictechniques reveal simple factor structure within the three issuesbut not between the three issues over the decade; (3) politicizationof the issues is greater in 1974 than in 1977; and (4) the differencesbetween the religiously involved and others have existed sincethe beginning of the decade and show no evidence of increasingpoliticization during the 1970s. Data are from the NORC GeneralSocial Surveys, 1972–80.     

FAMILY LIFE AND AMERICAN POLITICS: THE "MARRIAGE GAP" RECONSIDERED

In recent years, several writers have identified marital statusas a potentially important line of political cleavage, observingthat singles are more likely to vote Democratic than marriedvoters are. Changes in both the structure of American familiesand in the salience of "family politics" in the policy arenasuggest increased attention to the political consequences ofmarital status and family life-style. This paper contributesto advancing theory concerning the relationship between familylife and politics, and empirically evaluating several competinghypotheses concerning the so-called marriage gap in the 1972through 1988 presidential elections.     

AN ANALYSIS OF THE ACCURACY OF "TRIAL HEAT" POLLS DURING THE 1992 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

There is little systematic research on the multitude of factorsthat influence the accuracy of poll results. This article examinessix methodological factors directly under the survey researcher'scontrol and two exogenous factors concerning the nature of publicopinion as sources of survey error. Data for this study comefrom 56 "trial heat" polls conducted during the last month ofthe 1992 presidential election. The most important variablesinfluencing survey accuracy were the number of days a poll isin the field, which increased total accuracy one-half of a percentagepoint per day; conducting interviews only on weekdays (and thusonly during evening hours), which reduced overall accuracy ratesby more than 1 percentage point; and conducting a "tracking"poll, which increased accuracy by about 1.5 points. Sample sizewas not related to accuracy rates. Results also indicated thatsampling frames of "likely voters" (relative to "registeredvoters") tended to overestimate support for George Bush andunderestimate support for Ross Perot, that interviewing onlyon weekdays led to overestimates of support for Bush, and thatstrict methods of defining a respondent as "supporting" a candidatehurt the two newcomers, Perot and Bill Clinton, more than Bush.In light of these data it is recommended that the common practiceof reporting "margins of error" based solely on sample sizesbe abandoned as misleading and replaced by a more empiricallyjustifiable measure based more on response rates.     

The "More for Less" Paradox: Public Attitudes on Taxing and Spending

Using a statewide random sample of over 900 respondents, attitudestoward taxing and spending are examined in order to try to explainthe seeming paradox of a public that wants more spending butless taxation. We investigate the possibility that the publicwhich wants more spending is willing to pay for it by meansother than taxes, such as through reallocation or increasednontax revenue. Moderate support for this expectation is found.Overall, the desire fora "free lunch" is not as widespread asa simple comparison of taxing and spending preferences suggests.     

The "Positivity Bias" inEvaluations of Public Figures:Evidence Against Instrument Artifacts

The "positivity bias" is a term used to describe the consistentfavorable evaluation of public figures found in surveys overthe past 40 years. This paper explored several possible artifactualexplanations for this bias,focusing on the survey instrumentitself. Two experiments varied the labeling and ordering ofscale endpoints, the affective value of the initial contextevaluated, and the presence or absence of a prestigious jobtitle associated with the nameof the public figure. None ofthe variations produced significantly different levels of positivitythan the standard control condition used in each experiment.RichardR. Lau is a graduate student in social psychology at the Universityof California, Los Angeles. David O. Sears is Professor of Psychologyand Political Science at UCLA. Richard Centers is Professorof Psychology at UCLA. This research was supported in part byGrant #SOC73-09153 A03 from the National Science Foundationto David O. Sears. The authors wish to expess their thanks toMark Williams, who did most of the coding and checking involvedin the survey.     

"Shielding" the Knowledge Transfer Process in Human Service Research

Knowledge utilization studies aim to understand the pathwayswhereby research moves from a specific set of producers to aspecific set of consumers. Broadly speaking, two sets of explanationsexist: (1) the engineering model, which focuses on the inevitabilityof science in advancing knowledge, and (2) the socio-organizationalmodel, which stresses the importance of communication betweenand among groups as the critical factor in promoting utilization.This study asks both research managers at the Department ofHealth and Human Services and representatives from a particularset of consumer organizations to elaborate on the qualitiesof the research process that make knowledge most useful to them.We find that the qualities valued in both communities signalconvergence around a novel third approach—the shield model—inwhich aspects of the original two models reinforce a powerfulprofessional norm of objectivity that shelters the knowledgeproduction and transmission process from external politicalpressures.     

"BY PUBLIC OPINION I MEAN"--

"Where all people talk on the same subject, they should be agreedabout the vocabulary with which they discuss it: or, at anyrate, they should be aware that they are not agreed."     

Qualifications to Generalized Absolutes: "Approval of Hitting" Questions on the GSS

An analysis of "approval of hitting" questions on the GeneralSocial Surveys finds evidence of correlated error. Respondentsfrequently ignore the absolute phrasing of questions. As a result,they often contradict themselves by approving of specific usesof hitting after having rejected any use of such force. Thesecontradictors tend to have lower education and less supportfor punitive responses on other items.     

DO OPEN-ENDED QUESTIONS MEASURE "SALIENT" ISSUES?

Closed-ended questions dominate most interview schedules. Yetthe almost exclusive use of this form did not arise becauseopen-ended questions, its major competitor, proved to be weakindicators of public opinion. Instead, responses from open-endedquestions proved more difficult and expensive to code and analyzethan those from closed-ended questions. Although such practicalconcerns are important, the real task of survey researchersis to measure public opinion accurately. Using an experimentaldesign, this article tests whether open-ended questions measurethe important concerns of respondents—one of the long-claimedadvantages of this format. The results, on balance, show thatopen-ended comments reflect such concerns, suggesting that pollstersmay want to include more of these questions in their surveysof public opinion.