On the Global Convergence of Stochastic Fictitious Play

We establish global convergence results for stochastic fictitious play for four classes of games: games with an interior ESS, zero sum games, potential games, and supermodular games. We do so by appealing to techniques from stochastic approximation theory, which relate the limit behavior of a stochastic process to the limit behavior of a differential equation defined by the expected motion of the process. The key result in our analysis of supermodular games is that the relevant differential equation defines a strongly monotone dynamical system. Our analyses of the other cases combine Lyapunov function arguments with a discrete choice theory result: that the choice probabilities generated by any additive random utility model can be derived from a deterministic model based on payoff perturbations that depend nonlinearly on the vector of choice probabilities.     

Nonlinear Regressions with Integrated Time Series

An asymptotic theory is developed for nonlinear regression with integrated processes. The models allow for nonlinear effects from unit root time series and therefore deal with the case of parametric nonlinear cointegration. The theory covers integrable and asymptotically homogeneous functions. Sufficient conditions for weak consistency are given and a limit distribution theory is provided. The rates of convergence depend on the properties of the nonlinear regression function, and are shown to be as slow as n^1/4 for integrable functions, and to be generally polynomial in n^1/2 for homogeneous functions. For regressions with integrable functions, the limiting distribution theory is mixed normal with mixing variates that depend on the sojourn time of the limiting Brownian motion of the integrated process.     

Innovation timing advantages: From economic theory to strategic application

First and second mover theory, as developed in industrial organization economics, maintains that firms can gain competitive advantage by using optimal timing in the introduction of innovations. Because the industry is the unit of analysis, the theory does not provide specific guidance for individual firms. We analyze the underlying sources of first and second mover timing advantages and clarify several issues regarding the basic theory. We then identify a variety of factors at the industry, firm and product/service levels and develop propositions showing their relations to individual firms in their efforts to benefit from timing advantages. We discuss the link which these indicator factors provide between economic theory and strategic timing choices. Finally, we suggest directions for research which would assist firms and their managers in selecting and pursuing innovation timing strategies.     

Beyond the Balm of Communicative Planning: Can Actor -Network Theory Insights and a More Agonistic Practice Help Unlock Creative ‘Post-Conflict’ Potential?: Towards a Renewed Research Horizon in Northern Ireland

In a situation, where tribal tram lines seem stuck in place this commentary suggests that an imaginative jolt taking into account recent thinking in planning theory may be warranted and go some small way to subvert the current state of stasis on the still contested terrain of Northern Ireland/North of Ireland. The alliance of procedural agonism and analytical actor network theory (ANT) offers, it is suggested, the augmented potential of a more conceptually diverse approach to planning in terms of conjuring with spatial imaginaries and airing latent outcomes, where communicative planning on its own has exhibited imaginative limitations.     

需求驱动的移动商务价值链组织的多阶博弈仿真

基于博弈论和扩散理论建立了多智能体模拟系统,实现了客户需求逆向驱动的价值链多阶博弈仿真,并进行模拟数据分析。以移动价值链为研究对象,建立考虑用户重复购买的BASS动力学模型,探讨移动市场中产品扩散过程;并基于实时需求数据驱动合作博弈模型,探讨了运营商和服务商的竞合关系;进一步结合进化博弈理论,描述了服务商动态联盟的演化过程。从价值链集成的角度,利用多阶博弈研究了价值链整体建模问题,并引入行业生命周期理论进行分析。通过一系列的虚拟实验,探讨了市场因素、服务商和运营商因素对收益的影响,为价值链管理决策提供依据。     

Modeling Precheck Parallel Screening Process in the Face of Strategic Applicants with Incomplete Information and Screening Errors

In security check systems, tighter screening processes increase the security level, but also cause more congestion, which could cause longer wait times. Having to deal with more congestion in lines could also cause issues for the screeners. The Transportation Security Administration (TSA) Precheck Program was introduced to create fast lanes in airports with the goal of expediting passengers who the TSA does not deem to be threats. In this lane, the TSA allows passengers to enjoy fewer restrictions in order to speed up the screening time. Motivated by the TSA Precheck Program, we study parallel queueing imperfect screening systems, where the potential normal and adversary participants/applicants decide whether to apply to the Precheck Program or not. The approved participants would be assigned to a faster screening channel based on a screening policy determined by an approver, who balances the concerns of safety of the passengers and congestion of the lines. There exist three types of optimal normal applicant's application strategy, which depend on whether the marginal payoff is negative or positive, or whether the marginal benefit equals the marginal cost. An adversary applicant would not apply when the screening policy is sufficiently large or the number of utilized benefits is sufficiently small. The basic model is extended by considering (1) applicants' parameters to follow different distributions and (2) applicants to have risk levels, where the approver determines the threshold value needed to qualify for Precheck. This article integrates game theory and queueing theory to study the optimal screening policy and provides some insights to imperfect parallel queueing screening systems.     

CEO变更与企业价值关系的实证模型

委托代理理论认为CEO变更是由于代理人没有实现委托人对企业价值的预期,委托人以解除契约的形式来体现其约束机制的威力。为验证委托代理理论对CEO变更与企业价值关系的解释力,基于委托代理理论的两个前提假设,即委托代理关系的成立和企业价值低于股东的预期,构建CEO变更与企业价值关系的Logistic回归模型。选取2005年至2009年中国资本市场发生CEO变更、A股持续经营的上市公司样本,依据样本企业价值和企业性质的不同对Logistic回归模型进行分组检验。研究结果表明,企业价值水平较高时,股东对企业价值的预期通常能够得到满足,导致股东依据企业价值水平变更CEO的可能性较小;民营企业由于公司治理水平较低,CEO与股东之间的委托代理关系不一定成立,这两种情况均会降低委托代理理论对CEO变更与企业价值关系的解释能力,因此仅用委托代理理论来解释CEO变更与企业价值关系具有一定的局限性。     

地理距离对企业社会责任的影响研究

地理距离在中国转型经济情境下,意味着信息不对称和制度压力异质性。基于信号理论,以2010~2017年中国上市公司为样本,采用随机效应模型,探讨企业与政府监管机构之间的地理距离对企业社会责任的影响机理,以及制度环境与高铁线路对上述关系的调节效应。研究表明:地理距离对企业社会责任表现存在显著的负向影响,较好的制度环境与途经较多的高铁线路,均可缓解地理距离对企业社会责任表现的负向影响。     

Newcomers’ reactions to unfulfilled leadership expectations: An attribution theory approach

This paper examines newcomers’ reactions when facing unfulfilled leadership expectations. Although leaders are ascribed a key role in newcomers’ socialization, very little is known about newcomers’ expectations of leadership and their subsequent behaviors when these expectations are not fulfilled. Against the background of a follower-centered perspective, we develop a differentiated model of newcomers’ leadership attributions. As general attribution theory has recently shown, causal links are not always made in clear-cut ways. Thus, there may be several steps between the attribution and non-attribution of leadership. As our qualitative empirical study in Germany reveals, different unfulfilled leadership expectation types lead to equally different leadership attribution levels, with various behavioral consequences for newcomers. We suggest a dynamic model, starting with investing in a relationship before newcomers choose refusing reactions such as confrontation or withdrawal.     

客户关系管理基础理论体系框架探讨

CRM基础理论是整个CRM的基石,但对于CRM基础理论体系的确立并没有一个清晰的说法.识别有价值客户和培育有价值客户忠诚是狭义CRM的两项基本任务,从支持完成这两项基本任务的思路出发,本文提出了一个由客户价值识别理论和客户忠诚理论构成的CRM基础理论总体框架及两大理论本身的基本框架,阐述了两大基础理论的关键研究进展.     

Understanding Local Policy Elites’ Perceptions on the Benefits and Risks Associated with High‐Voltage Power Line Installations in the State of Arkansas

Recently, a controversial policy debate has arisen concerning the installation of high‐voltage power lines in northwest Arkansas. While proponents argue that such an installation is inevitable to efficiently and reliably support the identified electric load in the region, opponents claim that the lines will degrade the natural environment and hamper the tourism‐based local economy in affected regions, notably in Ozark Mountain areas. Of particular interest is to understand how local policy elites perceive the benefits and risks associated with such divisive proposals, which is critical for comprehending the formation and changes of related government policies. Based upon the dual process theory of judgment, this study systematically investigates the triadic relationships between (a) more profound personal value predispositions, (b) affects and feelings, and (c) perceived benefits and risks related to the proposed installation of high‐voltage power lines among local policy elites in the state of Arkansas. In doing so, we analyze original data collected from a statewide Internet survey of 420 local leaders and key policymakers about their opinions on the related issues, while considering other factors claimed by previous literature to influence risk perceptions, including trust, knowledge level, and demographic characteristics. Analytical results suggest that grid‐group cultural predispositions, as deeply held core values within local policy elites’ individual belief systems, both directly and indirectly—through affective feelings—shape perceived utility associated with the installation of high‐voltage power lines. We conclude this article by suggesting some practical considerations for better designing policy addressing controversial issues of this nature.     

DEA博弈模型的分析与发展

数据包络分析(Data Envelopment Analysis,DEA)与博弈论之间关系密切.传统DEA模型忽略了决策单元(Decision Making Units,DMUs)之间的竞合关系,对权重的限制过于宽松,难以合理评价DMU效率值.为此,将博弈论方法引入至DEA模型,开展DEA的博弈研究,既是对DEA理论的重大发展,也将极大拓宽博弈论的应用研究.本文分三个阶段对现有的DEA博弈研究进行述评:(1)DEA的博弈论解释;(2)DEA Game模型及其应用;(3)DEA效率博弈;在深入分析重点模型基础上,总结其发展脉络,促进DEA理论与实践的发展.     

On flexible product-mix decision problems under randomness and fuzziness

This paper considers several models of product-mix decision problems and production planning problems under uncertain conditions, and shows that these are extensional and versatile models for resolving previous product-mix problems. These proposed models include randomness derived from statistical analysis based on historical data, ambiguity of decision maker's intuition and the quality of received information, and flexibility in accomplishing the original plan. Furthermore, given that the upper limit values of some constraints have flexibility, and given a decision maker's level of satisfaction, we propose a flexible product mix of problems using the theory of constraints (TOC), and develop an efficient solution method. We then provide a numerical example that compares our models with some previous basic models. Efficiency of flexibility is obtained when our proposed models are applied to several conditions, such as measurable changes from the expected value of future returns.     

Knowledge and Organization in the Theory of the Multinational Corporation: Some Foundational Issues

This paper addresses the interaction of knowledge and organization in IB research, particularly research on the MNC. The argument is advanced that although the MNC literature is quite advanced with respect to its treatment of firm-level knowledge, several closely connected problems remain. In particular, there has been an over-emphasis on knowledge flows and an under-emphasis on knowledge stocks; the micro-foundations of MNC knowledge are unclear; and there is a no clear understanding of the causal relations between knowledge stocks and flows and organizational control. A control theory approach that may resolve some of these problems is then sketched.     

Folklore Theorems,Implicit Maps,and Indirect Inference

The delta method and continuous mapping theorem are among the most extensively used tools in asymptotic derivations in econometrics. Extensions of these methods are provided for sequences of functions that are commonly encountered in applications and where the usual methods sometimes fail. Important examples of failure arise in the use of simulation‐based estimation methods such as indirect inference. The paper explores the application of these methods to the indirect inference estimator (IIE) in first order autoregressive estimation. The IIE uses a binding function that is sample size dependent. Its limit theory relies on a sequence‐based delta method in the stationary case and a sequence‐based implicit continuous mapping theorem in unit root and local to unity cases. The new limit theory shows that the IIE achieves much more than (partial) bias correction. It changes the limit theory of the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) when the autoregressive coefficient is in the locality of unity, reducing the bias and the variance of the MLE without affecting the limit theory of the MLE in the stationary case. Thus, in spite of the fact that the IIE is a continuously differentiable function of the MLE, the limit distribution of the IIE is not simply a scale multiple of the MLE, but depends implicitly on the full binding function mapping. The unit root case therefore represents an important example of the failure of the delta method and shows the need for an implicit mapping extension of the continuous mapping theorem.     

A Quantitative Test of the Cultural Theory of Risk Perceptions: Comparison with the Psychometric Paradigm

This paper seeks to compare two frameworks which have been proposed to explain risk perceptions, namely, cultural theory and the psychometric paradigm. A structured questionnaire which incorporated elements from both approaches was administered to 129 residents of Norwich, England. The qualitative risk characteristics generated by the psychometric paradigm explained a far greater proportion of the variance in risk perceptions than cultural biases, though it should be borne in mind that the qualitative characteristics refer directly to risks whereas cultural biases are much more distant variables. Correlations between cultural biases and risk perceptions were very low, but the key point was that each cultural bias was associated with concern about distinct types of risks and that the pattern of responses was compatible with that predicted by cultural theory. The cultural approach also provided indicators for underlying beliefs regarding trust and the environment; beliefs which were consistent within each world view but divergent between them. An important drawback, however, was that the psychometric questionnaire could only allocate 32% of the respondents unequivocally to one of the four cultural types. The rest of the sample expressed several cultural biases simultaneously, or none at all. Cultural biases are therefore probably best interpreted as four extreme world views, and a mixture of qualitative and quantitative research methodologies would generate better insights into who might defend these views in what circumstances, whether there are only four mutually exclusive world views or not, and how these views are related to patterns of social solidarity, and judgments on institutional trust.     

Should the Model for Risk‐Informed Regulation be Game Theory Rather than Decision Theory?

Risk analysts frequently view the regulation of risks as being largely a matter of decision theory. According to this view, risk analysis methods provide information on the likelihood and severity of various possible outcomes; this information should then be assessed using a decision‐theoretic approach (such as cost/benefit analysis) to determine whether the risks are acceptable, and whether additional regulation is warranted. However, this view ignores the fact that in many industries (particularly industries that are technologically sophisticated and employ specialized risk and safety experts), risk analyses may be done by regulated firms, not by the regulator. Moreover, those firms may have more knowledge about the levels of safety at their own facilities than the regulator does. This creates a situation in which the regulated firm has both the opportunity—and often also the motive—to provide inaccurate (in particular, favorably biased) risk information to the regulator, and hence the regulator has reason to doubt the accuracy of the risk information provided by regulated parties. Researchers have argued that decision theory is capable of dealing with many such strategic interactions as well as game theory can. This is especially true in two‐player, two‐stage games in which the follower has a unique best strategy in response to the leader's strategy, as appears to be the case in the situation analyzed in this article. However, even in such cases, we agree with Cox that game‐theoretic methods and concepts can still be useful. In particular, the tools of mechanism design, and especially the revelation principle, can simplify the analysis of such games because the revelation principle provides rigorous assurance that it is sufficient to analyze only games in which licensees truthfully report their risk levels, making the problem more manageable. Without that, it would generally be necessary to consider much more complicated forms of strategic behavior (including deception), to identify optimal regulatory strategies. Therefore, we believe that the types of regulatory interactions analyzed in this article are better modeled using game theory rather than decision theory. In particular, the goals of this article are to review the relevant literature in game theory and regulatory economics (to stimulate interest in this area among risk analysts), and to present illustrative results showing how the application of game theory can provide useful insights into the theory and practice of risk‐informed regulation.     

管理理论的实践相关性问题研究综述

介绍了管理理论缺乏实践相关性问题产生的历史背景以及其主要证据,并从管理理论传播过程、管理理论生产过程、管理研究方法论和管理理论框架、管理学者的价值观和管理学院追求的目标4个方面,对问题的原因进行了综述和分析,最后提出了需要进一步研究的几个问题。     

Risk Preferences in Strategic Wildfire Decision Making: A Choice Experiment with U.S. Wildfire Managers

Federal policy has embraced risa management as an appropriate paradigm for wildfire management. Economic theory suggests that over repeated wildfire events, potential economic costs and risas of ecological damage are optimally balanced when management decisions are free from biases, risa aversion, and risa seeking. Of primary concern in this article is how managers respond to wildfire risa, including the potential effect of wildfires (on ecological values, structures, and safety) and the likelihood of different fire outcomes. We use responses to a choice experiment questionnaire of U.S. federal wildfire managers to measure attitudes toward several components of wildfire risa and to test whether observed risa attitudes are consistent with the efficient allocation of wildfire suppression resources. Our results indicate that fire managers’ decisions are consistent with nonexpected utility theories of decisions under risa. Managers may overallocate firefighting resources when the likelihood or potential magnitude of damage from fires is low, and sensitivity to changes in the probability of fire outcomes depends on whether probabilities are close to one or zero and the magnitude of the potential harm.     

对企业生产缓冲的分析与评价

本文划分了生产缓冲的类型,提出并叙述了生产缓冲的诸要素;建立了生产缓冲的木桶理论,认为生产缓冲诸要素的水平应相互配比协调;探讨了生产缓冲的经济评价,最后讨论了生产缓冲度的层次分析与测评。