Leader cognition in vision formation: Simplicity and negativity

Models describing how leaders think point to a complex set of cognitive processes. To execute these processes it may be necessary for leaders to simplify the problem at hand with respect to critical contingencies. In the present effort, undergraduates were asked to work on a vision formation task with the resulting vision statements being appraised for quality, originality, elegance, perceived utility, and affective reaction. Manipulations were made to encourage application of more or less complex mental models, a larger, or smaller, number of relevant concepts and cases, and forecasting of positive or negative outcomes. It was found that the strongest visions were produced when people used relatively simple mental models, few schema and cases, and they focused on forecasting negative outcomes. Thus leader performance appears to reflect simplification and an attempt to minimize negative outcomes. The implications of these observations for understanding leader cognition and leader performance are discussed.     

Making sense of pragmatic and charismatic leadership stories: Effects on vision formation

For some time, it has been argued that stories articulated by leaders are an important vehicle for exercising influence, but stories of leadership might also serve as a means for developing leadership potential. One critical activity involved in leadership is vision formation, which involves constructing and communicating a future state that guides followers in “making sense” of complex organizational events. Like leader visions, analyzing stories also, by nature, evokes sensemaking processes. As a result, analyzing stories of leadership may provide a natural means for practicing the art of sensemaking. In the present investigation, undergraduates were asked to read six short stories about incidents of either pragmatic or charismatic leadership in business settings. After reading each story, questions were asked to encourage sensemaking of story events, causes, and emotions. Participants were subsequently asked to formulate visions for leading a secondary school –– a transfer task. It was found that stronger visions were produced when participants were asked to analyze both story events and the causes of these events. The implications of these findings for the use of leadership stories in leader development initiatives are discussed.     

Strategies for leader cognition: Viewing the glass “half full” and “half empty”

Leader cognition proves to be central to organizational functioning as leaders generate solutions and provide direction when organizations encounter problems. This study examined the effects of utilizing different general thinking strategies for thinking through organizational problems on the formation of problem solutions and statements articulating a future vision. Specifically, the effects of focusing on the positive, the negative, or balancing positivity and negativity were examined regarding their influence on the quality, originality, and elegance of solutions and the viability of vision statements. Participants were asked to assume the role of a leader in an educational technology firm and provide a solution and vision statement to address the firm's challenges. The results revealed that a positivity strategy – thinking about positive outcomes and means for attaining success – resulted in lower quality solutions and less viable visions than a balanced positive–negative strategy—either thinking about negative outcomes and means for attaining success or positive outcomes and means for avoiding failure. Solution originality, however, was moderated by attribution of responsibility such that thinking about negative outcomes and avoiding failure resulted in more original solutions when responsibility for the conditions confronting the firm could be attributed externally rather than internally. The implications of these findings for understanding leader cognition and performance are discussed.     

Perceptions of leader charisma and effectiveness: The effects of vision content,delivery, and organizational performance

This study examined the effects of vision content, delivery and organizational performance on perceptions of leader charisma and effectiveness. Subjects included 304 undergraduates who were presented videotaped speeches by a bogus CEO of a software company. A 2 × 2 × 2 design was employed in which message content (visionary/non-visionary), delivery (strong/weak), and organizational performance (high/low) were manipulated. A modified, 7-item version of Meindl and Ehrlich's (1988) Romance of Leadership Scale (RLS-D) served as a covariate. A MANCOVA analysis indicated significant effects of delivery, content, and organizational performance on both perceived leader charisma and effectiveness. The RLS-D was unrelated to either dependent variable as a covariate. The results suggest that strength of delivery is an especially important determinant of perceptions' of leader charisma and effectiveness. Although speech content and organizational performance cues likewise accounted for variance in these perceptions, their effects were at times offset by those of delivery.     

The choice of a forecasting model

The major purpose of studies of forecasting accuracy is to help forecasters select the ‘best’ forecasting method. This paper examines accuracy studies in particular that of Makridakis et al. [20] with a view to establishing how they contribute to model choice. It is concluded that they affect the screening that most forecasters go through in selecting a range of methods to analyze—in Bayesian terms they are a major determinant of ‘prior knowledge’. This general conclusion is illustrated in the specific case of the Makridakis Competition (M-Competition). A survey of expert forecasters was made in both the UK and US. The respondents were asked about their familiarity with eight methods of univariate time series forecasting, and their perceived accuracy in three different forecasting situations. The results, similar for both the UK and US, were that the forecasters were relatively familiar with all the techniques included except Holt-Winters and Bayesian. For short horizons Box-Jenkins was seen as most accurate while trend curves was perceived as most suitable for the long horizons. These results are contrasted with those of the M-Competition, and conclusions drawn on how the results of the M-Competition should influence model screening and model choice.     

Forecasting and leader performance: Objective cognition in a socio-organizational context

Traditionally, it has been assumed that leaders, like other people, are typically poor at forecasting. In the present effort, we argue that people can sometimes prove effective at forecasting and that effective forecasting is particularly important to performance in leadership roles. Subsequently, evidence bearing on how four key variables, mental models, objectivity, time frame, and case content, influence the effectiveness of leader forecasting is examined along with interventions that might contribute to effective forecasting on the part of leaders. The implications of these observations for understanding leader cognition are discussed.     

How feedback about leadership potential impacts ambition,organizational commitment,and performance

In the present research we report results from two experimental studies that examine how feedback about leadership potential impacts leadership ambition, organizational commitment, and performance. Study 1 used an experimental vignette methodology that controls for prior performance. Results show that individuals who receive feedback that they have low potential to be a future leader have lower ambition and organizational commitment relative to those who receive feedback that they have high potential to be a future leader. Study 2 provides evidence of the causal behavioral effects of feedback about leadership potential using a real task effort environment. Results show that participants informed to be unlikely future leaders display lower performance in a subsequent task than participants informed to be likely future leaders. The findings from the two studies demonstrate that information about leadership potential affects subsequent ambition to become leaders as well as performance. We discuss the implications of these findings for the importance of followership, talent management, and leadership succession.     

Leadership skills and the group performance: Situational demands,behavioral requirements,and planning

In recent years, the role of cognitive skills in shaping leader performance has received more attention. In the present study, the role of one key set of skills, planning skills, was examined with respect to leader emergence and group performance in a sample of 55 groups, containing 195 undergraduates, working on a business planning task. Leader planning skills were assessed along with structuring and considerate behavior under conditions where task complexity, group diversity, and turbulence were examined as potential influences on the need for planning and the need for leaders possessing planning skills. It was found that complexity, diversity, and turbulence influenced the quality and originality of group plans, as well as structuring behavior on the part of leaders. Leader structuring behavior interacted with leader planning skills in determining the quality and originality of group plans. The implications of these findings for understanding the role of planning skills in shaping leader emergence and group performance are discussed.     

Cognitive skills and leadership performance: The nine critical skills

Over the years, a growing body of evidence indicates that certain cognitive skills are a critical determinant of leader performance. In the present effort we show that application of these skills is typically founded in case-based knowledge. Subsequently, we identify nine key skills people in leadership positions employ when working with case-based knowledge to address leadership problems: 1) problem definition, 2) cause/goal analysis, 3) constraint analysis, 4) planning, 5) forecasting, 6) creative thinking, 7) idea evaluation, 8) wisdom, and 9) sensemaking/visioning. Individual and situational contingencies shaping effective application of these thinking skills is discussed. In addition, the implications of findings bearing on leader thinking skills for leader assessment and leader development are considered.     

The role of leadership self-efficacy and stereotype activation on cardiovascular,behavioral and self-report responses in the leadership domain

This research examines female leaders' responses to the gender–leader stereotype and the role of leadership self-efficacy in these responses. Using the biopsychosocial model of threat and challenge, this laboratory experiment examined women's cardiovascular, behavioral (i.e., performance), and self-report responses to the negative female leader stereotype as a function of leadership efficacy. Female participants, selected on leadership efficacy scores, served as leaders of ostensible three-person groups within an immersive virtual environment. Half were explicitly primed with the negative stereotype. As predicted, women with high, as opposed to low, percepts of leadership self-efficacy exhibited cardiovascular patterns of threat when performing the leadership task, and they performed better in the explicit stereotype activation condition compared to those not explicitly primed. Additionally, this threat was consistent with positive reactance responses on behavioral and self-report measures. Low efficacy leaders were not threatened, but they did show stereotype priming effects by assimilating to the negative stereotype on the self-report and behavioral measures. This research provides greater insight into stereotype reactance effects and highlights the role of self-efficacy in moderating stereotype threat and stereotype priming effects.     

Leader self-projection and collective role performance: A consideration of visionary leadership

Leaders often need to project themselves into alternative situations, but there is a limited understanding of how, why, or when leader self-projection might influence their teams’ outcomes. Based on the notion that brain activity in the default mode network (DMN) underlies self-projection, such as future-oriented mental simulations, we argue that the effect of leaders’ DMN activity on team behavior such as collective role performance may be understood by considering both the leaders’ visionary behavior and their orientation towards socialized vision. Specifically, we posit that a leader’s trait-like brain activity in the leader’s DMN is associated with the leader’s visionary behavior. Furthermore, we argue that visionary leader behavior, when accompanied by socialized vision orientation, facilitates collective role performance of the team. As such, we examine the moderating role of a socialized orientation toward serving the interests of a wide range of stakeholders in reinforcing the positive effect of visionary leader behavior on collective role performance of team members, as well as the indirect effect of leader DMN activity on collective role performance via visionary leader behavior. We found support for our hypotheses using diverse research methodologies, including quantitative electroencephalogram (qEEG), multi-source multi-wave surveys, and interview coding.     

Situational impacts on leader ethical decision-making

Leader ethical decision-making has received a great deal of attention in the academic literature. Most research examining ethical leadership has focused on the leader characteristics and subordinate outcomes associated with ethical leadership, but research examining the situational variables influencing leader ethical decision-making is limited. Thus, the purpose of this study was to examine a number of situational variables that may influence leader ethical decision-making. This study examined the impacts of performance pressure, interpersonal conflict, the leader's decision-making autonomy, the type of ethical issue at hand, and the level of authority of the other person involved in the interaction. The results indicated that when making a decision in response to a superior (as opposed to a peer or subordinate), leaders make worse decisions. Additionally, a number of interactions of the other variables negatively impacted leaders' ethical decision-making. The implications of these findings are discussed.     

Provider–user differences in perceived usefulness of forecasting formats

This paper aims to examine potential differences in perceived usefulness of various forecasting formats from the perspectives of providers and users of predictions. Experimental procedure consists of asking participants to assume the role of forecast providers and to construct forecasts using different formats, followed by requesting usefulness ratings for these formats (Phase 1). Usefulness of the formats are rated again in hindsight after receiving individualized performance feedback (Phase 2). In the ensuing role switch exercise, given new series and external predictions, participants are required to assign usefulness ratings as forecast users (Phase 3). In the last phase, participants are given performance feedback and asked to rate the usefulness in hindsight as users of predictions (Phase 4). Results reveal that regardless of the forecasting role, 95% prediction intervals are considered to be the most useful format, followed by directional predictions, 50% interval forecasts, and lastly, point forecasts. Finally, for all formats and for both roles, usefulness in hindsight is found to be lower than usefulness prior to performance feedback presentation.     

Charismatic leadership and task feedback: A laboratory study of their effects on self-efficacy and task performance

This article examines the interactive effects of two different leadership styles (charismatic and noncharismatic) and three types of task feedback (internal, external, and no feedback) on individuals' self-efficacy and performance quality over four trials of a manufacturing task. Ninety-nine graduate students manufactured electrical wiring harnesses under the direction of either a charismatic or noncharismatic leader (an experimental confederate). Participants exposed to the charismatic leader had similar task performance regardless of task feedback condition, while participants exposed to the noncharismatic leader differed in their task performance depending on whether or not they received task feedback. Self-efficacy mediated the effect of task feedback and its interaction with charismatic leadership on performance. Explanations and implications of the results are discussed.     

Impact of situational framing and complexity on charismatic,ideological and pragmatic leaders: Investigation using a computer simulation

Revisiting the work of Weber [Weber, M. (1921). The theory of social and economic organizations. New York: Free Press], Mumford and colleagues (e.g., [Strange, J. M., & Mumford, M. D. (2002). The origins of vision: Charismatic versus ideological leadership. Leadership Quarterly, 13, 343?377; Mumford, M.D. (2006). Pathways to outstanding leadership: A comparative analysis of charismatic, ideological and pragmatic leaders. Mahwah, NJ: Erlbaum.]) explored the thesis that in addition to charismatic leadership, there exist at least two additional pathways to outstanding leadership: ideological and pragmatic. Despite the compelling results of initial studies, however, questions remain as to when and under what situational conditions these three leaders operate most effectively. As such, an experiment was conducted to investigate two noteworthy contextual influences: 1) situational congruence with a leader's mental model and 2) environmental complexity. The experiment made use of a computerized leadership simulation where participants took on the role of a university chancellor. Results indicate that leader type, complexity, and situational framing were critical factors in determining leader performance on multiple game performance criteria as well as creative process criteria. Implications and avenues for future research are discussed.     

How leader displays of happiness and sadness influence follower performance: Emotional contagion and creative versus analytical performance

Previous studies have found mixed results regarding the influence of positive and negative leader affect on follower performance. We propose that both leader happiness and leader sadness can be beneficial for follower performance contingent on whether the task concerns creative or analytical performance. This proposition was put to the test in two experiments in which leader affective display was manipulated and the performance of (student) participants was assessed. The results supported our hypothesis that a leader's displays of happiness enhance follower creative performance, whereas a leader's displays of sadness enhance follower analytical performance. Contrasting these findings with evidence for a subjective rating of leadership effectiveness, in line with an implicit leadership theory interpretation, leaders were perceived as more effective when displaying happiness rather than sadness irrespective of task type. The second study showed that the effects of leader affective displays on followers' creative performance and perceived leadership effectiveness are mediated by follower positive affect, indicating that emotional contagion partly underlies these effects.     

From backcasting towards forecasting

A comprehensive study of expected and actual industry growth patterns has suggested that a number of shortcomings in statistical forecasting derive from the role of “backcasting” in widely used methods of estimating probable future adjustment paths. After examining attendant problems and the conceptual bases for ameliorating them, attention in the paper centers on describing a technique for effecting some of these improvements and on analyzing the findings obtained by applying it to 28 series over periods of 60–80 years. Resulting implications for strengthening business and economic forecasting efforts are then discussed.     

Social identity framing communication strategies for mobilizing social change

Social identity framing delineates a set of communication tactics that leaders may use to harness follower support for a vision of social change. An experimental design tested the effectiveness of three social identity framing communication tactics (inclusive language, similarity language, positive social identity language) on follower outcomes. Students (N = 246) completed dependent measures after reading one of eight possible leader speeches promoting renewable energy on campus. Results showed that participants exposed to inclusive language were more likely to: indicate that renewable energy was ingroup normative; intend to engage in collective action to bring renewable energy to campus; experience positive emotions and confidence about change; and to view the leader more positively. The combination of inclusive language and positive social identity increased ratings of leader charisma. Perceived leader prototypicality was related to followers' social identification, environmental values, ingroup injunctive norms, and self-stereotypes. Positive social identity language increased collective self-esteem. These results underline the important role of implicating social identity in leader communication that strives to mobilize follower support for social change.     

Facial appearance and leader choice in different contexts: Evidence for task contingent selection based on implicit and learned face-behaviour/face-ability associations

Facial appearance plays a role in leader selection and some facial traits are more valued in certain contexts. Here, I examined associations between facial appearance and perceptions of leadership. In Study 1, male faces were rated for several traits and leadership ability under general, war-time, and peace-time scenarios. Masculinity was found to be favoured in war-time over peace-time, however, this association was diminished when controlling for dominance. In Study 2, cues to physical ability or cooperative personality were associated with different face traits. When subsequently asked to select the best leader for a physically competitive task, participants chose faces with the trait associated with physical ability. For a cooperative task, participants chose faces with the trait associated with cooperation. These data suggest that leaders may be chosen based on their visual characteristics because certain characteristics suggest that they possess abilities that make them well suited to lead in particular situations.