ANIMAL SPIRITS,HETEROGENEOUS EXPECTATIONS,AND THE AMPLIFICATION AND DURATION OF CRISES

We introduce a simple equilibrium model of a market for loans, where households lend to firms based on heterogeneous expectations about their loan default probability. Agents select endogenously among heterogeneous expectation rules, based upon their relative performance. Due to strong nonlinearities, a small fraction of pessimistic traders already has a large aggregate effect, leading to a crisis characterized by high interest rates for loans and low output. Our stylized model illustrates how animal spirits and heterogeneous expectations and, in particular, how coordination on pessimistic expectations amplifies crises and slows down recovery. (JEL E32, D83, D84)     

Accumulating assets,debts in young adulthood: Children as potential future investors

Child Development Accounts (CDA) aim to open savings accounts in childhood as a way to lay a foundation for building assets in young adulthood and beyond. Mainstream banks may be key partners in opening the accounts in which children can build assets. While children may have limited savings to invest initially, they may increasingly invest over time by accumulating assets and debts through mainstream banks. Mainstream banks may benefit from children's increasing investments. This paper uses propensity score weighted, longitudinal data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics and its supplements to examine savings, assets, debt, and net worth accumulation of young adults and whether or not they accumulate more when they have savings accounts as children. Young adults accumulate a median of $1000 in savings accounts, $4600 in total assets, $965 in debt (excluding student loans), and $4000 in net worth (excluding student loans). Young adults accumulate more savings and total assets when they have savings accounts as children. They accumulate less debt and more net worth when their households accumulate high net worth.     

FOREIGN BANKS AND THE BANK LENDING CHANNEL

We provide new evidence on bank ownership and transmission of monetary policy using bank‐level data on 453 banks in Central and Eastern European economies between 1998 and 2012. Only domestic banks adjust loans to changes in monetary policy, while foreign banks do not. Conventional wisdom says that this is because foreign banks can rely on parent banks' funding to insulate against monetary policy shocks. In this paper we document an alternative explanation. Deposits in foreign banks do not react to monetary policy, hence the bank lending channel is only triggered in domestic banks. (JEL E50, F36, G21)     

Boundedly rational banks’ contribution to the credit cycle

We investigate how banks’ boundedly rational learning influences their views about default risks over the business cycle. Our analysis details the direction and the magnitude of these effects assuming that banks update probability in a Bayesian way. With a limited experience span lenders are liable to overestimate (underestimate) losses from defaulting loans early (late) in the boom. Depending on their experience span, banks turn over-optimistic and underprice default risk 3–5 years into the boom. During recessions an overpricing of risk begins just quarters into the recession. Our simulations are calibrated with U.S. data and provide evidence for the view that banks contribute to excessive lending during the upswing and to credit crunches in recessions.     

Connections with banking institutions and diverse asset portfolios in young adulthood: Children as potential future investors

A central hypothesis of Child Development Accounts (CDA) suggests that savings accounts in childhood lay a foundation for connecting to mainstream banking institutions and diversifying asset portfolios in young adulthood and beyond. While children may have limited savings to invest initially, they are financial actors who may increasingly invest money into different types of savings products over time. This paper uses propensity score weighted, longitudinal data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics and its supplements to examine the types of financial and nonfinancial assets owned by young adults and whether or not they are more likely to own these assets when they have savings accounts as children. The most commonly owned assets in young adulthood included savings accounts (89%), vehicles (54%) and credit cards (51%). Smaller percentages owned stocks (9%), bonds (6%), and homes (8%). On average, young adults owned two to three different assets. Having savings accounts in childhood was associated with being two times more likely to own savings accounts, two times more likely to own credit cards, and four times more likely to own stocks in young adulthood, compared to not having savings accounts in childhood. Young adults' ownership of more total financial assets was also associated with having savings accounts in childhood. Findings provide some supporting evidence of demand for children's savings accounts. Policy endeavors that remove barriers to account ownership may be advantageous for children and mainstream banks.     

THE CONSEQUENCES OF COSTLY DEFAULT

This paper investigates the consequences of assuming that default on loans or corporate debt is costly; that is, the act of default imposes a deadweight cost on the economy. The analysis deals with two simple capital market models. Conditions for capital market equilibrium nominal interest rates and probability of default to exist are given and the comparative statics of these equilibrium variables with respect to changes in expectations, productivity of investment, cost of default and riskless interest rates are examined. In many cases these comparative static results are unambiguous in sign.     

The Ability of Women to Repay Debt After Divorce

SUMMARY

This study uses questions on household repayment problems from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics to examine how the transition from marriage to divorce affects default rates by gender. The results show that divorced women are more likely to have repayment problems than divorced men and married-couple households. Further analysis reveals that divorced women who are receiving welfare are significantly less likely to default. Because average welfare benefits decreased in the early 1990s, the results suggest that this decrease provides a partial explanation for why the default rate increased between 1991 and 1995 for divorced women. The effect of welfare on the default rates of divorced men and married couples is insignificant. And there is no evidence that receiving child support and alimony payments significantly affects the probability of default.     

Scamming the Poor

Abstract

Because of the difficulty in securing traditional forms of credit, the poor are often driven into the fringe economy for check cashing, bill paying and short-term loans. These services involve high user fees and exorbitant interest rates that rival or even exceed those for illegal loan sharking. Fringe lending businesses function as a legal and virtually unregulated form of predatory loan-sharking. They neither offer nor promote savings-based financial products that build assets and increase household wealth. The predictable outcome is the depletion of the income and assets of low-income families and communities. Because many poor clients are vulnerable to fringe market lenders, social workers need to understand this market to better assist the poor in finding and developing alternative forms of borrowing. This article will explore the rapidly growing fringe economy and examine strategies to help curb the drain of income and assets from low-income communities.     

河北省生源地助学贷款需求、供给与还款分析——以河北农业大学为例

：生源地助学贷款具有承贷主体多元化、放款形式多样化、贷款管理属地化等优势，作为国家助学贷款的有益补充具有广阔的发展前景。根据对河北农业大学生源地助学贷款在校生和毕业生的问卷调查和数据分析，在需求和供给方面存在着供给量不足、供给形式单一等问题；在还款方面，存在着还款期限短、违约率较高等问题。针对上述问题，应通过加大政策扶持力度、建立风险基金和信用体系等措施来解决，以促进河北省生源地助学贷款的健康发展。     

INTERNATIONAL DEBTS: WHAT'S FACT AND WHAT'S FICTION: PRESIDENTIAL ADDRESS TO THE WESTERN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION, JULY 2, 1988

From the vantage point of 1988, the 1982 judgment that the troubled foreign country debtors had a liquidity problem, not a solvency problem, appears to have been fiction. The fact is that troubled debtors did not use productively the resources they borrowed. Further loans to them only add to the burden of their existing debt. Retaining the loans at face value on the books of the creditor banks is a fiction that financial markets see though. Intervention by regulators and international lending agencies has impeded bilateral bargains between the debtors and the banks.     

The Price of Opportunity: Race,Student Loan Debt,and College Achievement

This paper examines racial differences in student loan debt and concurrently assesses the potential payoffs and countervailing risks inherent in reliance on loans in a cohort of black and white first‐year college students. Using the 1996–2001 Beginning Postsecondary Student study we find that the use of loans results in greater enrollment persistence and higher odds of college completion, especially for black students. However, black students acquire larger amounts of student loan debt and face a higher risk of default than white students. This is in part due to associated racial differences in family socioeconomic status and type of institution attended. We suggest these findings illuminate the dual‐sided nature of college loans that makes them an imperfect, but overall positive, tool for reducing educational inequality. On the one hand, student loans reduce educational inequality that otherwise results from disadvantaged students' struggles to pay for college and complete college in a timely fashion. At the same time, the degree to which loans reduce racial inequality is diminished by black students' higher loan amounts, the large number of black students who borrow but do not finish college, and the large racial difference in the odds of defaulting on a loan.     

FEAR,ANGER, AND CREDIT. ON BANK ROBBERIES AND LOAN CONDITIONS

We study the impact of emotions on real-world decisions made by loan officers by analyzing the loan conditions of loans granted immediately after a bank branch robbery. We find significant differences between the conditions of loans granted after a robbery and changes in loan conditions that occur contemporaneously at unaffected branches. In general, loan officers seem to adopt so-called avoidance behavior. In accordance with the literature on posttraumatic stress, their avoidance behavior is halved within 2 weeks following the robbery and the effect further varies depending on the presence, or absence, of a firearm during the robbery. (JEL G02, G2)     

MANAGING RISK TAKING WITH INTEREST RATE POLICY AND MACROPRUDENTIAL REGULATIONS

We develop a model in which a financial intermediary's investment in risky assets—risk taking—is excessive due to limited liability and deposit insurance, and characterize the policies that implement efficient risk taking. In the calibrated model, combining interest rate policy with state‐contingent macroprudential regulations—either capital or leverage regulation, and a tax on profits—achieves efficiency. Interest rate policy mitigates excessive risk taking by altering the return and the supply of collateralizable safe assets. In contrast to commonly used capital regulation, leverage regulation has stronger effects on risk taking and calls for higher interest rates. (JEL E44, E52, G11, G18)     

U.S. COMMERCIAL BANK LENDING THROUGH 2008:Q4: NEW EVIDENCE FROM GROSS CREDIT FLOWS

What was hiding behind the aggregate commercial bank loans through the end of 2008? We use balance sheet data for every insured U.S. commercial bank from 1999:Q1 to 2008:Q4 to construct credit expansion and credit contraction series and provide new evidence on changes in lending. Until 2008:Q3 net credit growth was not dissimilar to the 1980 and 2001 recessions. However, between the third and fourth quarter credit contraction grew larger than credit expansion across all types of loans and for the largest banks. With the inclusion of 2008:Q4 data our series most resemble the intensification of the Savings and Loan crisis. (JEL E44, E51, G21)     

BANKS,FREE BANKS,AND U.S. ECONOMIC GROWTH

The “Federalist financial revolution” may have jump‐started the U.S. economy into modern growth, but the Free Banking System (1837–1862) did not play a direct role in sustaining it. Despite lowering entry barriers and extending banking into developing regions, we find in county‐level data that free banks had little or no effect on growth. The result is not just a symptom of the era, as state‐chartered banks seem to have strong and positive effects on manufacturing and urbanization. (JEL G21, N21, O43)     

INFORMATION COSTS AND THE ORGANIZATION OF CREDIT MARKETS: A THEORY OF INDIRECT LENDING

This paper explains indirect lending as a strategy for reducing a bank's cost of screening borrowers. Commercial banks appear to "ration" credit by rejecting some direct loan applicants, although they accept higher-risk borrowers who apply for loans indirectly through retailers. However, the more thorough credit check on direct loans causes applicants to sort themselves according to risk. Indirect applicants signal their higher risk through their choice of financing. Since banks gather more accurate information on direct applicants, the two types of contracts should differ in predictable ways. These implications are tested with Federal Reserve data on 5,000 automobile loans.     

DECISION TIME,CONSIDERATION TIME,AND STATUS QUO BIAS

Economists increasingly appreciate the value of studying the time taken to make decisions in order to provide insights into decision makers' choices. This article shows that studying how time is allocated among individual options is also valuable in helping researchers to understand the impact default options have on decision makers' attention allocation, as approximated by how the time is allocated. The study of this impact generates new insights into the well‐known choice phenomenon of status quo bias, which typically refers to decision makers' tendency to stick to a default option. By designing a series of novel experiments, I find that this bias arises even when the choice is among prizes of fixed monetary value expressed in arithmetic form. I also find asymmetric attention (i.e., more time devoted to default options) and strikingly asymmetric choice errors; specifically, decision makers fail to select an alternative better than the default 28% of the time, while they incorrectly select an alternative worse than the default only 11% of the time; and provide evidence supporting a causal relationship between asymmetric attention and asymmetric errors. (JEL D03, D12, D83)     

INTEREST RATE CEILINGS AND THE ROLE OF SECURITY AND COLLECTION REMEDIES IN LOAN CONTRACTS

Collateral or other security for personal loans and restrictions on creditor remedies for the collection of debts have varying effects on the price and quantity of credit which depend in turn on the level of interest rate ceilings. We report here on reduced-form equations of a supply-demand model estimated for five states with different interest rate restrictions. Interest rate ceilings limit how far lenders can raise loan rates to compensate for expected default losses but restrictions on collection remedies are generally associated with a higher interest rate.     

Black mafia, loggies and going for the stars: the military elite revisited

The connection between a Public School education and the British Army officer corps has often been presented as an example of a self‐perpetuating elite, with little by way of theoretical explanation. This paper aims to explicate these matters by reference to Bourdieu's concepts of habitus and field and to extend the empirical work of earlier studies by looking at the nature of army organization structure, the place of particular regiments within it, and the relative success of officers from different regiments in gaining promotion to general. Inter‐regimental competition plays a key role in allowing the reproduction of privilege within the military, and testifies therefore to the importance of organizational structures. The shorthand conclusions of earlier studies that ‘the elite is maintained’ can be replaced by analysis and explanation, which suggest that the alignment of public school habitus and military field will ensure that (other things being equal) this state of affairs will be slow to change. The property assets of the upper middle class allow their offspring to acquire at public school the cultural assets that will enable them to succeed in a military career. This in turn give access to organizational assets and economic rewards that will enable them to provide the next generation with their cultural assets.